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Author Topic: Warning: How many of you Bears have ever been a victim of a Short Squeeze?  (Read 41086 times)
miscreanity
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October 27, 2011, 04:44:11 AM
 #181

As an addendum: without statistically significant capital in/outflow from external currencies, the high volatility denominated in Bitcoins means that whichever side is correct will end up with an increased percentage share in total of this economy. In other words: more highly skilled (and/or luckier) traders will accrue more Bitcoins overall than less adept traders, leading to a (likely temporary) relative concentration of Bitcoin wealth.

For an overly-simplistic example:

100 BTC holders with 1 BTC each @ USD$1/BTC
50 BTC holders sell @ USD$1/BTC
50 BTC holders now have 2 BTC each @ USD$0.50/BTC
50 BTC holders are not selling at existing prices
BTC price rises to USD$0.75/BTC (BTC holders have effectively gained 50% on their total holdings due to cost-averaging)
50 non-holders experience seller's remorse; 10 of them buy back in (1 BTC each) and the exchange rate goes to USD$0.80/BTC
15 non-holders buy back in (1 BTC each) and the exchange rate goes to USD$0.90/BTC
50 steady BTC holders out the 75 total now have average of 75% out of total BTC economy; former sellers only 25%

Over-simplistic and freely assuming price changes, but illustrative of how a transfer of wealth can occur in a closed economy. Since Bitcoin is such a small economy, but based on now-proven technology, increased participation is nearly guaranteed to produce substantive gains in existing holdings.

And the chart:



A lot of that volume can be read as Bitcoins changing hands from sellers to buyers. Without a corresponding exchange rate drop, some will experience seller's remorse and reacquire their Bitcoin holdings at higher prices.

The real determining factor now is external capital flow due to new interest from organic growth, not supply/demand within the Bitcoin economy itself... unless a BTC millionaire decides to dump it all (still a case of diminishing returns - buyers have incentive to scoop up cheap BTCs). Until external currency volume rises, any further declines are most likely to be shallow and short-lived.

Where can we find the net short positions on Zhoutong's exchange?  Chicago Mercantile Exchange or something will announce such statistics

Thanks in advance.

you're not serious are you?  his is a private exchange accountable to no one but himself.  no stats except for him.

Oanda is a private exchange in the same class as Bitcoinica that apparently offers quite a good amount of transparency.

It isn't required, but it'd be nice - and confer additional credibility to Bitcoinica.
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cypherdoc
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October 27, 2011, 04:52:25 AM
 #182

this is exactly right.  new money infused into the economy will help merchants as well as the price and ultimately Bitcoins success.  we have way too many Bitcoin theorists around here arguing that speculative capital and early adopter hoarding is destructive to the economy.  this is nonsense and demonstrates a lack of understanding of how markets work.

what is needed is an influx of new money whether it be from speculators, investors, or merchants start up capital.  this will improve the economy and i would argue a slowly rising price of Bitcoin would create a virtuous upward spiral of everything Bitcoin related.
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October 27, 2011, 05:29:20 AM
 #183

theres alot of USD's lined up to buy Bitcoin and its spread across the entire bid mountain.  nothing fake about this.  where the hell are the shorts?
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October 27, 2011, 05:43:20 AM
 #184

...
what is needed is an influx of new money whether it be from speculators, investors, or merchants start up capital.  this will improve the economy and i would argue a slowly rising price of Bitcoin would create a virtuous upward spiral of everything Bitcoin related.

I'm just going to take advantage of opportunities to demonstrate the Bitcoin is usable for interesting things.  Like yesterday when there was a relatively highly watched segment about Wikileaks, I and some other people pointed out that Bitcoin make it so I don't have to be a slave to the big financial interests.

I expect that many people will have heard vaguely of Bitcoin, and at some point something will spark their interest enough, and they will be at a point in their lives when, they will go ahead and have a look.  That is what happened to me in fact.  Being a geek with a long term interest in cryptography, I had heard of Bitcoin by at least early this year, but happened to have been busy with other stuff until around June.  And the Occupy-X protests have brought out a lot of interest in and education about in financial sector shenanigans in the last few months.

Anyway, as long as the network remains sound I would anticipate a trickle of people entering (and a trickle of people exiting for that matter.)  Because there was a run-up already, I imagine that at some point on some minor spike there could be a flurry of interest by people who don't want to be left behind again and we could be off to the races.  Or not.   Who knows.   One way or another, I accumulate because BTC is something I like to have.

miscreanity
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October 27, 2011, 05:58:19 AM
 #185

Anyway, as long as the network remains sound I would anticipate a trickle of people entering (and a trickle of people exiting for that matter.) 

Bingo! A gradual awakening to the options that exist.

Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.
~Charles Mackay

It's becoming ever-easier to access the Bitcoin system, either directly with a BTC wallet or indirectly via exchanges. I'm also developing a method that will facilitate a distributed wallet so the local wallet.dat becomes a centralized backup. No more lost wallets! Smiley
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October 27, 2011, 07:37:36 AM
 #186

Where can we find the net short positions on Zhoutong's exchange?  Chicago Mercantile Exchange or something will announce such statistics

Thanks in advance.



His argument is that these details will reveal too much about Bitcoinica's vulnerability, because there's literally two exchanges. Without knowing enough about how all this works, I suspect he's right. But that's giving the man a lot of credit where he's earned only some.

we have way too many Bitcoin theorists around here arguing that speculative capital and early adopter hoarding is destructive to the economy.

Oh the fucking irony. "Shhhh, no speculative behavior, here!!"

yes, bought silver btwn $9-12 and sold at $44.  bought gold at $550 and sold btwn $1550 and $1650.  nice healthy returns all plowed into Bitcoin.  play money.


Please give me your money, because I am a shameless libertarian elite who deserves your money more than you do: 9Hkao8U82WWDp6SQGn4k7ad9gT1LWeL5s3
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October 27, 2011, 12:53:47 PM
 #187

Where can we find the net short positions on Zhoutong's exchange?  Chicago Mercantile Exchange or something will announce such statistics

Thanks in advance.



His argument is that these details will reveal too much about Bitcoinica's vulnerability, because there's literally two exchanges. Without knowing enough about how all this works, I suspect he's right. But that's giving the man a lot of credit where he's earned only some.

we have way too many Bitcoin theorists around here arguing that speculative capital and early adopter hoarding is destructive to the economy.

Oh the fucking irony. "Shhhh, no speculative behavior, here!!"

yes, bought silver btwn $9-12 and sold at $44.  bought gold at $550 and sold btwn $1550 and $1650.  nice healthy returns all plowed into Bitcoin.  play money.



if you really understood how money works and that we are in the depths of a fiat currency crisis you would understand that gold/silver were fundamental investment plays.  most around here do understand that except you.

i also never said i wasn't a speculator.  personally i don't care about parsing the diff categories.  i prefer to say i'm a money infuser into Bitcoin.  how's that work?
cypherdoc
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October 27, 2011, 01:10:53 PM
 #188

1. Dow futures UP monster +255
2. USD down big back into the consolidation channel and moving lower
3. oil futures up a big 3.60%
4. gold and silver UP
5. copper up 6 std deviations in price!
6. GDP prints biggest QonQ jump since Q4 2009.

did i say RISK ON?  smash the shorts.
zby
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October 27, 2011, 01:58:15 PM
 #189

If there is to be a breakout from the down trend it will be via a massive short squeeze, but this will not happen as long as people remember this thread.
HorseRider
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October 27, 2011, 03:08:38 PM
 #190

give us some stats won't be a serious trouble for Zhoutong. It's a shame he didn't do this.

16SvwJtQET7mkHZFFbJpgPaDA1Pxtmbm5P
zhoutong
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October 27, 2011, 04:21:39 PM
 #191

give us some stats won't be a serious trouble for Zhoutong. It's a shame he didn't do this.

Please send an email to support@bitcoinica.com to request for stats. If you are holding more than 1,000 USD, we are glad to talk with you more.

Otherwise, since Bitcoinica is linked to Mt. Gox, it's very easy to capture our trading algorithm if we announce everything to the public. Bitcoin is a very small market and Bitcoinica has a significant portion of trades.

We have been in net long (6,000 BTC to 15,000BTC range) for the past 7days.

We will solve the problem in the next big release. You can expect some more stats from us.

Founder of NameTerrific (https://www.nameterrific.com/). Co-founder of CoinJar (https://coinjar.io/)

Donations for my future Bitcoin projects: 19Uk3tiD5XkBcmHyQYhJxp9QHoub7RosVb
cypherdoc
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October 27, 2011, 05:26:27 PM
 #192

a mere 1555 users logged onto mtgoxlive right now.  you know what that means...

sorry, 1643.  never seen that before and i've been here longer than most of you.
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October 27, 2011, 05:27:45 PM
 #193

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October 27, 2011, 05:28:53 PM
 #194

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October 27, 2011, 05:29:31 PM
 #195

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October 27, 2011, 05:30:02 PM
 #196

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October 27, 2011, 05:30:41 PM
 #197

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October 27, 2011, 05:30:48 PM
 #198

Do bots count as logged in? They've been adding new API features lately that would account for increased "use"

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October 27, 2011, 05:30:56 PM
 #199



Candle Stick charts can be misleading, especially when not considering different time periods...
Choosing the wrong one can easily lead to a fallacy...

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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October 27, 2011, 05:31:22 PM
 #200

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