As an addendum: without statistically significant capital in/outflow from external currencies, the high volatility denominated in Bitcoins means that whichever side is correct will end up with an increased percentage share in total of this economy. In other words: more highly skilled (and/or luckier) traders will accrue more Bitcoins overall than less adept traders, leading to a (likely temporary) relative concentration of Bitcoin wealth.
For an overly-simplistic example:
100 BTC holders with 1 BTC each @ USD$1/BTC
50 BTC holders sell @ USD$1/BTC
50 BTC holders now have 2 BTC each @ USD$0.50/BTC
50 BTC holders are not selling at existing prices
BTC price rises to USD$0.75/BTC (BTC holders have effectively gained
50% on their total holdings due to cost-averaging)
50 non-holders experience seller's remorse; 10 of them buy back in (1 BTC each) and the exchange rate goes to USD$0.80/BTC
15 non-holders buy back in (1 BTC each) and the exchange rate goes to USD$0.90/BTC
50 steady BTC holders out the 75 total now have average of 75% out of total BTC economy; former sellers only 25%
Over-simplistic and freely assuming price changes, but illustrative of how a transfer of wealth can occur in a closed economy. Since Bitcoin is such a small economy, but based on now-proven technology, increased participation is nearly guaranteed to produce substantive gains in existing holdings.
And the chart:
A lot of that volume can be read as Bitcoins changing hands from sellers to buyers. Without a corresponding exchange rate drop, some will experience seller's remorse and reacquire their Bitcoin holdings at higher prices.
The real determining factor now is external capital flow
due to new interest from organic growth
, not supply/demand within the Bitcoin economy itself... unless a BTC millionaire decides to dump it all (still a case of diminishing returns - buyers have incentive to scoop up cheap BTCs). Until external currency volume rises, any further declines are most likely to be shallow and short-lived.
Where can we find the net short positions on Zhoutong's exchange? Chicago Mercantile Exchange or something will announce such statistics
Thanks in advance.
you're not serious are you? his is a private exchange accountable to no one but himself. no stats except for him.
Oanda is a private exchange in the same class as Bitcoinica that apparently offers quite a good amount of transparency
It isn't required, but it'd be nice - and confer additional credibility to Bitcoinica.