[2018-08-14] Bitcoin's value will come in time even if investors are spooked now

[vy99]

The person they quote in the article is pretty spot-on when it comes to her view of cryptocurrency in the world. One of the better quotes is:

Demirors suggested institutional and retail investors should ignore the price and think of cryptocurrency in similar terms to an early internet stock, such as Amazon, Intel or Microsoft. Although successful now, it took years for those stocks to recover from initial highs after the dotcom bubble burst.

This is something that isn't talked about as often when it comes to cryptocurrency. When the dotcom bust happened in 2000 no one was calling the internet a scam or saying that it won't survive long-term. It was pretty much seen as a necessary market correction, and now these stocks are seen as pillars of the investment community. The same thing will happen with Bitcoin.

Here's the rest of the article for those of us that are sick of the FUD we're seeing today (it doesn't let me link to the CNBC article itself but here's the content):

Bitcoin's narrative is hard to pin down, but as with early internet stocks, real traction will come in time, cryptocurrency advocate Meltem Demirors told CNBC on Monday.

"New technologies that shift the paradigm take a long time to really understand," Demirors, who acts as chief strategy officer at digital asset manager CoinShares, said on CNBC's "Fast Money."

Despite bitcoin's aspiration to be a safe haven asset, the cryptcurrency has not seen a rally with the stumble of the Turkish lira, which hit a fresh all-time low against the dollar on Monday.

Except for a brief rally in July, bitcoin has been on a near-steady downward slide since briefly topping $19,000 in December. Even the announcement more than a week ago — that the Intercontinental Exchange would help create an open and regulated digital asset ecosystem — brought little movement in bitcoin's price.

Despite that, crypto bulls hailed it as a step toward legitimizing the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin was last down about 0.6 percent at $6,277.

This might be an opportune time, but no one is viewing bitcoin as a store of value because the cryptocurrency is struggling with a narrative problem, Demirors said.

"The narrative around bitcoin is still really hard to grasp," Demirors said. "Really the only metric we have for most cryptocurrencies is the price, and price is such an imperfect metric. What does actual utilization look like? That's really the struggle for crypto right now."

Demirors suggested institutional and retail investors should ignore the price and think of cryptocurrency in similar terms to an early internet stock, such as Amazon, Intel or Microsoft. Although successful now, it took years for those stocks to recover from initial highs after the dotcom bubble burst.

"What we saw in crypto was this massive run-up, where everyone got 'FOMO,' or fear of missing out, as we like to say. What it caused is a speculative bubble," she said.

But now that the bitcoin bubble has burst, Demirors said capital is starting to get deployed into "building real businesses that serve a real purpose."

Demirors said it isn't clear when bitcoin might begin to regain value, or what that might look like, but progress will depend on determining which metrics are best for measuring cryptocurrency's growth.

"We are starting to see real traction. A lot of it is really dependent on finding those data points, those metrics, that are going to drive that growth story," she added.

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[Slow death]

We have to look and understand the side of the people who lost hope in bitcoin. People hear: "bitcoin is in the $6000, I predict that we will touch the  $9000" and in less than 1 month the price increased to $10,000 and it was celebrated in dozens of news channels, this created in people a good exepective and the people buy bitcoin. then another expert came up saying, "Until the end of the year I predict bitcoin in the $14000" and another specialist said: "By the end of the year I predict the price of bitcoin in the $ 16000" and there was someone I will not say the name that made predictions of more than $500,000 and made a bet. This all boosted people's expectations and then the price drops from $18,000 to $6,000 and can not rise to at least $10,000, so that people lose their hopes and start selling their bitcoin at a loss. for many people, bitcoin will not increase prices anymore, that's the feeling. But people forget that the pressure of governments and banks is reducing the demand for bitcoin and this cause the price to fall

[Kakmakr]

I think everyone expected some kind of correction after a 800% increase in the price, since 2017. No commodity or stock can sustain a "no ceiling" price increase indefinitely, so a correction was inevitable. The Dotcom bubble correction eventually recovered after a few years and some of those companies are even bigger and stronger than before.

This is a excellent comparison to what happened with some of the Dotcom companies. 

[vy99]

No commodity or stock can sustain a "no ceiling" price increase indefinitely, so a correction was inevitable.

This is a great point and one that a lot of people fail to understand. The chances of Bitcoin going up to $500k was virtually none, something like that is just not realistic or sustainable. So relatively speaking when you compare it to the $20k high it appears that Bitcoin is failing but realistically it was never going to remain that high to begin with. If all we are seeing now is a correction then Bitcoin will be more stable and stronger in the coming years.

[Kprawn]

No commodity or stock can sustain a "no ceiling" price increase indefinitely, so a correction was inevitable.

This is a great point and one that a lot of people fail to understand. The chances of Bitcoin going up to $500k was virtually none, something like that is just not realistic or sustainable. So relatively speaking when you compare it to the $20k high it appears that Bitcoin is failing but realistically it was never going to remain that high to begin with. If all we are seeing now is a correction then Bitcoin will be more stable and stronger in the coming years.

I do not agree with this. The Bitcoin price can increase to a much higher price than $19,000 and this was proven with a

theoretical adoption simulation, based on a fraction of the percentage of people moving from investments in other commodities

and stocks to Bitcoin. The problem with the sudden increase in December of last year, was the rate at which is was climbing.

It was pretty clear from the start that this price increase was driven by pure speculation and not natural adoption or people

shifting from other commodities or stocks to Bitcoin. 

[vy99]

No commodity or stock can sustain a "no ceiling" price increase indefinitely, so a correction was inevitable.

This is a great point and one that a lot of people fail to understand. The chances of Bitcoin going up to $500k was virtually none, something like that is just not realistic or sustainable. So relatively speaking when you compare it to the $20k high it appears that Bitcoin is failing but realistically it was never going to remain that high to begin with. If all we are seeing now is a correction then Bitcoin will be more stable and stronger in the coming years.

I do not agree with this. The Bitcoin price can increase to a much higher price than $19,000 and this was proven with a

theoretical adoption simulation, based on a fraction of the percentage of people moving from investments in other commodities

and stocks to Bitcoin. The problem with the sudden increase in December of last year, was the rate at which is was climbing.

It was pretty clear from the start that this price increase was driven by pure speculation and not natural adoption or people

shifting from other commodities or stocks to Bitcoin. 

Yes absolutely, I didn't mean that Bitcoin will NEVER be that high. I just meant in terms of what was going on last year. As you said it was all driven by speculation. I do believe that if we mirror the dotcom industry and things bounce back and we get more naturally adoption that eventually we will hit new highs.

[hatshepsut93]

Comparison with dotcom is more accurate than all that nocoiner noise, but it's not 100% accurate. Those Internet companies that turned into giants were always aimed at mass consumer, but Bitcoin is not suitable for everyone, average person has extremely poor security practices that will make using Bitcoin riskier than using banks for them. Also most people are not that frustrated with their banks, and people very rarely switch something they've been using for decades without any good reason. Bitcoin will certainly grow more, but I don't expect it to reach some insane levels of value and adoption.

[vy99]

Comparison with dotcom is more accurate than all that nocoiner noise, but it's not 100% accurate. Those Internet companies that turned into giants were always aimed at mass consumer, but Bitcoin is not suitable for everyone, average person has extremely poor security practices that will make using Bitcoin riskier than using banks for them. Also most people are not that frustrated with their banks, and people very rarely switch something they've been using for decades without any good reason. Bitcoin will certainly grow more, but I don't expect it to reach some insane levels of value and adoption.

I see what you're saying but you can really apply the same logic to Internet companies. People were buying books from bookstores for not just decades but for hundreds of years, but why did they start using Amazon? Sure at first adoption was slow and people were still buying from bookstores but eventually they realized the prices were better with Amazon and they had more selection. It's the same thing with banks, yes people have been using them for decades but when they see that there's another option available, one that's just as safe but without any of the ridiculous rules and fees, they'll gravitate towards that option.

Disruption in any industry takes time but when there's a broken business model that favors one party over the consumers, eventually someone will come in and turn things around. Think about Blockbuster Video. For years they were the only way to watch movies and they had membership fees and late fees and everything else that screwed people over...and then Netflix came in and destroyed their business model. They offered consumers the same service but without the fees or hassle of having to return a video to the store. The same can happen in the cryptocurrency world. Why put your money in a bank and pay their fees when you have an alternative?

[hatshepsut93]

Disruption in any industry takes time but when there's a broken business model that favors one party over the consumers, eventually someone will come in and turn things around. Think about Blockbuster Video. For years they were the only way to watch movies and they had membership fees and late fees and everything else that screwed people over...and then Netflix came in and destroyed their business model. They offered consumers the same service but without the fees or hassle of having to return a video to the store. The same can happen in the cryptocurrency world. Why put your money in a bank and pay their fees when you have an alternative?

Bitcoin's fees will be only marginally smaller than banking fees, even with Lightning Network. To some people it will indeed be a reason to switch to Bitcoin, but for others it will be not enough to outweigh the risks of using Bitcoin. Same with speed - even now many banks have nearly instant transactions for small amounts.

Bitcoin's improvement lies in freedom, not in speed or fees, and majority of the population doesn't want freedom, they want someone to take care of them in exchange for their money. And the problem of Bitcoin is that its freedom comes with responsibility of being your own bank.

In your examples the new services were overall better than the old ones, but Bitcoin is not overall better than banks for an average joe.

[vy99]

Disruption in any industry takes time but when there's a broken business model that favors one party over the consumers, eventually someone will come in and turn things around. Think about Blockbuster Video. For years they were the only way to watch movies and they had membership fees and late fees and everything else that screwed people over...and then Netflix came in and destroyed their business model. They offered consumers the same service but without the fees or hassle of having to return a video to the store. The same can happen in the cryptocurrency world. Why put your money in a bank and pay their fees when you have an alternative?

Bitcoin's fees will be only marginally smaller than banking fees, even with Lightning Network. To some people it will indeed be a reason to switch to Bitcoin, but for others it will be not enough to outweigh the risks of using Bitcoin. Same with speed - even now many banks have nearly instant transactions for small amounts.

Bitcoin's improvement lies in freedom, not in speed or fees, and majority of the population doesn't want freedom, they want someone to take care of them in exchange for their money. And the problem of Bitcoin is that its freedom comes with responsibility of being your own bank.

In your examples the new services were overall better than the old ones, but Bitcoin is not overall better than banks for an average joe.

Bank fees, at least in North American banks, are more than just transfer fees. Most of the time banks require you keep a minimum balance to avoid fees on accounts, they charge you for checks, they charge you for withdrawals (too many or from the wrong ATM), they charge you foreign transaction fees, they charge you for bank drafts, and on and on. Even services that were free a few years ago have charges now. People are sick of paying all these fees just for the banks to keep their money.

Then there's the issue of how much they monitor your activity. If you deposit too much cash they'll report you to the government. Also if the government makes a request the banks are obligated to report your financial activity...and even worse than that the government can freeze your assets so you can't even access your OWN money that's in a bank.

The truth is that the banking system is a broken model that benefits the banks themselves over the consumers. They've been long due for a disruption and it's possible that Bitcoin can be that disruption.

Once Bitcoin is 1) more stable (price-wise) and 2) easier to use/adopt, I think you'll see a bigger surge of people using it.

[Sutters Mill]

I've always said bitcoin could be worth somewhere between zero and millions, but nothing is guaranteed. There's really no saying whether bitcoin will ever get back to anywhere near its peak value or surpass it in multiples. There could also be that one day where bitcoin was just seen as some sort of fad or even surpassed by a better coin or better technology. People often call it a scam because it often resembles a ponzi (though it obviously isn't). Those who got in first are the ones who profited greatly and to keep profiting off it they need new money coming in. There might be a time when that new money stops coming in or slows down and down goes the value with it. If bitcoin goes bust and to zero it will have unfortunately become the new tulip mania (and I hate when people call it that), but when something can lose half it's value in a matter of months it never looks good. I'm always dreading that day where it falls too far and causes mass panic that it never fully recovers from. One thing that really worries me is if bitcoin becomes more expensive to mine and costs more than what it is actually worth. According to this it's not far off in some countries:



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-much-it-costs-to-mine-a-single-bitcoin-in-your-country-2018-03-06

Disruption in any industry takes time but when there's a broken business model that favors one party over the consumers, eventually someone will come in and turn things around. Think about Blockbuster Video. For years they were the only way to watch movies and they had membership fees and late fees and everything else that screwed people over...and then Netflix came in and destroyed their business model. They offered consumers the same service but without the fees or hassle of having to return a video to the store. The same can happen in the cryptocurrency world. Why put your money in a bank and pay their fees when you have an alternative?

Netflix was a natural progression from blockbuster, just like cds to mp3s and taxis to ubers and so on. But what happens when something comes along that is better than mp3s and uber? They also go the way of the dodo. Mp3s could be replaced by smaller yet less compressed files. Uber could fall to self-driving cars or maybe flying cars (you might laugh now but they're probably not far off  ). Bitcoin could go the same way. It's rare that the first pioneering idea remains the most used forever. Improvements are always made and new technology is adopted.

[vy99]

Those who got in first are the ones who profited greatly and to keep profiting off it they need new money coming in.

In that sense it's really no different than a stock or any other standard investment. The people who invested in Google or Apple when they launched have made a lot more money than someone that invested in the last 10 years...of course they also took a much bigger risk. It's the same with Bitcoin. The early adopters took a huge risk when it was only $10 that the whole thing would go up, so they also deserve most of the rewards.

Netflix was a natural progression from blockbuster, just like cds to mp3s and taxis to ubers and so on. But what happens when something comes along that is better than mp3s and uber? They also go the way of the dodo. Mp3s could be replaced by smaller yet less compressed files. Uber could fall to self-driving cars or maybe flying cars (you might laugh now but they're probably not far off  ). Bitcoin could go the same way. It's rare that the first pioneering idea remains the most used forever. Improvements are always made and new technology is adopted.

Yes, this is the true threat for Bitcoin in the long run. If (and it's a big IF) a coin were to come out that was superior to Bitcoin then it will be a huge threat to Bitcoin...otherwise a lot of the other stuff that's going on is just FUD and can be overcome.

[Sutters Mill]

Those who got in first are the ones who profited greatly and to keep profiting off it they need new money coming in.

In that sense it's really no different than a stock or any other standard investment. The people who invested in Google or Apple when they launched have made a lot more money than someone that invested in the last 10 years...of course they also took a much bigger risk. It's the same with Bitcoin. The early adopters took a huge risk when it was only $10 that the whole thing would go up, so they also deserve most of the rewards.

Not exactly. Other investments usually have businesses behind them. Bitcoin just has the faith of it's users and believers behind it really (just like tulips did) and this is what makes it more precarious and risky in my opinion. If bitcoin does go completely tits up then sadly history will probably remember it as some sort of scam that went bust and people will almost certainly compare anything else that comes along to bitcoin like they did with tulip mania. It will then be called 'bitcoin mania' instead. Also, the initial bitcoin users got the coins for free or next to nothing if they mined them themselves, but everybody else who invests is looking for the next people to either buy their coins or keep raising the value for them so that's why people compare it to pyramid selling, especially how many of the bitcoin faithful try sell it to others as a money making scheme and are obviously doing it mostly for their own benefit to push u the demand and therefore price.

[vy99]

Those who got in first are the ones who profited greatly and to keep profiting off it they need new money coming in.

In that sense it's really no different than a stock or any other standard investment. The people who invested in Google or Apple when they launched have made a lot more money than someone that invested in the last 10 years...of course they also took a much bigger risk. It's the same with Bitcoin. The early adopters took a huge risk when it was only $10 that the whole thing would go up, so they also deserve most of the rewards.

Not exactly. Other investments usually have businesses behind them. Bitcoin just has the faith of it's users and believers behind it really (just like tulips did) and this is what makes it more precarious and risky in my opinion. If bitcoin does go completely tits up then sadly history will probably remember it as some sort of scam that went bust and people will almost certainly compare anything else that comes along to bitcoin like they did with tulip mania. It will then be called 'bitcoin mania' instead. Also, the initial bitcoin users got the coins for free or next to nothing if they mined them themselves, but everybody else who invests is looking for the next people to either buy their coins or keep raising the value for them so that's why people compare it to pyramid selling, especially how many of the bitcoin faithful try sell it to others as a money making scheme and are obviously doing it mostly for their own benefit to push u the demand and therefore price.

I get what you're saying but the early investors in Bitcoin had a completely different mentality than the later investors. People that got in super early didn't consider it an investment per se, they just liked the idea of a decentralized digital currency. When people were getting in at $1 they never thought they'd see it go up to $20k they were just hoping it would stay at the same price or go up a couple bucks. The early Bitcoin life was far from the hysteria and mania we have now and it was far from a pyramid scheme. Ultimately Bitcoin's original intention is as a currency, to use it to buy and sell goods and services. It's now morphed into a monster that's nothing like it was originally conceived. The point was never to hold onto it for months/years until the price goes up and to get rich off it. So it's only in retrospect that we look at those early investors as if they were on top of a pyramid scheme when in fact were taking a huge chance that this thing would even work out.

[Sutters Mill]

Those who got in first are the ones who profited greatly and to keep profiting off it they need new money coming in.

In that sense it's really no different than a stock or any other standard investment. The people who invested in Google or Apple when they launched have made a lot more money than someone that invested in the last 10 years...of course they also took a much bigger risk. It's the same with Bitcoin. The early adopters took a huge risk when it was only $10 that the whole thing would go up, so they also deserve most of the rewards.

Not exactly. Other investments usually have businesses behind them. Bitcoin just has the faith of it's users and believers behind it really (just like tulips did) and this is what makes it more precarious and risky in my opinion. If bitcoin does go completely tits up then sadly history will probably remember it as some sort of scam that went bust and people will almost certainly compare anything else that comes along to bitcoin like they did with tulip mania. It will then be called 'bitcoin mania' instead. Also, the initial bitcoin users got the coins for free or next to nothing if they mined them themselves, but everybody else who invests is looking for the next people to either buy their coins or keep raising the value for them so that's why people compare it to pyramid selling, especially how many of the bitcoin faithful try sell it to others as a money making scheme and are obviously doing it mostly for their own benefit to push u the demand and therefore price.

I get what you're saying but the early investors in Bitcoin had a completely different mentality than the later investors. People that got in super early didn't consider it an investment per se, they just liked the idea of a decentralized digital currency. When people were getting in at $1 they never thought they'd see it go up to $20k they were just hoping it would stay at the same price or go up a couple bucks. The early Bitcoin life was far from the hysteria and mania we have now and it was far from a pyramid scheme. Ultimately Bitcoin's original intention is as a currency, to use it to buy and sell goods and services. It's now morphed into a monster that's nothing like it was originally conceived. The point was never to hold onto it for months/years until the price goes up and to get rich off it. So it's only in retrospect that we look at those early investors as if they were on top of a pyramid scheme when in fact were taking a huge chance that this thing would even work out.

I agree that probably 99% of the original users were all about the tech, but there will have been some who could have seen the bigger picture. The next wave of people interested in bitcoin after libertarians were probably speculators. I think it probably went like something like this: Cryptographers; libertarians; speculators. Now it's probably most people looking to get rich quick or those online earners who move from one thing to the next by doing online marketing or youtube or wahtever. The way bitcoin is designed just makes it scarcer as time goes on and if you were smart you could see where it had the potential to go. There are also many original bitcoiners that still hold most of their stash, though many also cashed out at $1000 and above and bought their Lambos and houses with it.


[btw if I had any merit left I'd give you one for this post]

[edit got one. sent]

[vy99]

Those who got in first are the ones who profited greatly and to keep profiting off it they need new money coming in.

In that sense it's really no different than a stock or any other standard investment. The people who invested in Google or Apple when they launched have made a lot more money than someone that invested in the last 10 years...of course they also took a much bigger risk. It's the same with Bitcoin. The early adopters took a huge risk when it was only $10 that the whole thing would go up, so they also deserve most of the rewards.

Not exactly. Other investments usually have businesses behind them. Bitcoin just has the faith of it's users and believers behind it really (just like tulips did) and this is what makes it more precarious and risky in my opinion. If bitcoin does go completely tits up then sadly history will probably remember it as some sort of scam that went bust and people will almost certainly compare anything else that comes along to bitcoin like they did with tulip mania. It will then be called 'bitcoin mania' instead. Also, the initial bitcoin users got the coins for free or next to nothing if they mined them themselves, but everybody else who invests is looking for the next people to either buy their coins or keep raising the value for them so that's why people compare it to pyramid selling, especially how many of the bitcoin faithful try sell it to others as a money making scheme and are obviously doing it mostly for their own benefit to push u the demand and therefore price.

I get what you're saying but the early investors in Bitcoin had a completely different mentality than the later investors. People that got in super early didn't consider it an investment per se, they just liked the idea of a decentralized digital currency. When people were getting in at $1 they never thought they'd see it go up to $20k they were just hoping it would stay at the same price or go up a couple bucks. The early Bitcoin life was far from the hysteria and mania we have now and it was far from a pyramid scheme. Ultimately Bitcoin's original intention is as a currency, to use it to buy and sell goods and services. It's now morphed into a monster that's nothing like it was originally conceived. The point was never to hold onto it for months/years until the price goes up and to get rich off it. So it's only in retrospect that we look at those early investors as if they were on top of a pyramid scheme when in fact were taking a huge chance that this thing would even work out.

I agree that probably 99% of the original users were all about the tech, but there will have been some who could have seen the bigger picture. The next wave of people interested in bitcoin after libertarians were probably speculators. I think it probably went like something like this: Cryptographers; libertarians; speculators. Now it's probably most people looking to get rich quick or those online earners who move from one thing to the next by doing online marketing or youtube or wahtever. The way bitcoin is designed just makes it scarcer as time goes on and if you were smart you could see where it had the potential to go. There are also many original bitcoiners that still hold most of their stash, though many also cashed out at $1000 and above and bought their Lambos and houses with it.

Yeah I definitely agree with your evolution scale and now you have this push/pull from the cryptographers/libertarians vs the speculators where the former group sees Bitcoin as a currency and the latter group sees Bitcoin as an investment scheme.

[btw if I had any merit left I'd give you one for this post]

Thanks, it's the thought that counts 

[I also appreciate being able to have an intelligent discussion on the Internet...doesn't happen to often nowadays]

[1Referee]

The speculative side is a nasty one, but directly also a very important one.

It's Bitcoin's occasional bull run cycle being the main form of adoption generator, but this directly makes sure that the few people who are really into it for the utility, are being outnumbered by orders of magnitude by get rich quick noobs. For now we have to endure all this mainstream 'torture', but eventually we'll be out of it when Bitcoin starts to mimic Gold and becomes boring enough to be used solely as store of value.

I have conducted far more transactions with Bitcoin this year than in all the previous years combined, and I started back in early 2013. The main reason for that is the adoption boost Bitcoin went through last year. People around me almost beg me to pay them in Bitcoin instead of fiat, which is something I have never seen before.

[Nebula Crook]

Bitcoin price is now like a bollywood cliched cos no matter what different story it might take but its downhill trend will always be there, which may or may not be surprising at all.

[vy99]

[edit got one. sent]

Thanks friend! 

[vy99]

The speculative side is a nasty one, but directly also a very important one.

It's Bitcoin's occasional bull run cycle being the main form of adoption generator, but this directly makes sure that the few people who are really into it for the utility, are being outnumbered by orders of magnitude by get rich quick noobs. For now we have to endure all this mainstream 'torture', but eventually we'll be out of it when Bitcoin starts to mimic Gold and becomes boring enough to be used solely as store of value.

I have conducted far more transactions with Bitcoin this year than in all the previous years combined, and I started back in early 2013. The main reason for that is the adoption boost Bitcoin went through last year. People around me almost beg me to pay them in Bitcoin instead of fiat, which is something I have never seen before.

All good points. I also feel that the speculation and hype we see now will simmer down if/when the price of Bitcoin becomes stable. When we get a situation where Bitcoin doesn't fluctuate much over a 6 month span then I think we'll see things settling down and people using it more as a currency as originally intended.