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Author Topic: It's 2014 again, or is it?  (Read 102 times)
darkangel11
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August 14, 2018, 07:18:08 PM
 #1

I've seen a number of well known traders (e.g. Willy Woo, Tone Vays) see this correction playing out like the one in 2014 and somehow they are seeing comparative patterns. I don't and I believe that this one is very much different starting from different fundamentals and ending with different chart patterns.
Fundamental differences? Let's start with 2014 rise not being natural, but caused by a bot. Fake volume pushed people to follow the market and buy. This time people were following the news and the volume was real.
The crash was followed by the biggest exchange going bankrupt and not long after the Chinese government auditing their exchanges to find out their volume was also fake. Chinese bans extended the bear market for another year. This time the crash was natural and started by the buyers slowly burning out at 20k. The fundamentals were and are still looking good. In fact they are much better than they were in December 2017 when the network fees skyrocketed.
As for the technicals the 2014 charts show much more panic and much smaller market depth. For instance, the first wave took the price down from over 1100 USD to $400, which was a 65% loss. In 2018 we didn't even lose 50% in that first wave. It's also worth noting that in June 2014 there was a huge recovery that managed to keep the price well above 600 USD (close to 40% loss) for more than 2 months. The price have to keep the hover around 12k USD for a couple months for the patterns to look similar.

Since we haven't had this huge dead cat bounce yet, there's not much fuel in the downtrend. Clearly the bulls are much stronger this time and the period of despair, that in 2014 came 12 months after the first wave, seems to already be here.

What do you think?

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August 14, 2018, 08:05:50 PM
Merited by darkangel11 (1)
 #2

You've got it right on about the patterns in the price action. I certainly think that this dead cat bounce is still in the formation and there's no reason to get anxious about it as we see a lot of around here. There are some similarities if you look at the chart, but there is much more going on underneath the surface, as is always the case with markets.

One other factor here is the introduction of futures contracts enabling shorts to be opened. That has never existed in the bitcoin sphere and is a huge part of what may be giving us such placid price reaction. There might be some large hands selling the bounces up to try and keep a lid on the bitcoin monster...
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August 14, 2018, 08:38:06 PM
Merited by darkangel11 (1)
 #3

It look alike but only using charts without numbers on it.
If you input a number then there is a huge difference.
20k USD. That is just too much too handle and that maybe one of the clue that it will fall deep.

Now, panic boys are shaken. They need the money to eat and also for their family. We do not know how much they are out there. Maybe more than holders.  Grin

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Shitcoins Whale
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August 15, 2018, 12:27:31 AM
 #4

I have suspected we would repeat the 2014 market pattern already in january 2018, but unfortunatelly I didn't act accordingly, otherwise I'ìd be rich now. However, the pattern may break any moment.

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August 15, 2018, 12:36:26 AM
Merited by darkangel11 (1)
 #5

When you use the word "fundamentals", what exactly do you mean?  I get your point about the reasons for the 2014 crash being bot-driven and Mt. Gox-driven.  Is that what you mean?

I've always thought fundamental analysis of bitcoin is a bit sketchy, because FA is best used in the stock and bond market, where one can analyze the business behind the stock or bond.  That can't really be done with bitcoin, because its price is essentially driven by supply and demand.  Sentiment, news, and rumor as well.

Clearly the bulls are much stronger this time and the period of despair, that in 2014 came 12 months after the first wave, seems to already be here.
I'm not sure what to make of this statement.  I don't know that the bulls are stronger this time.  Bitcoin hit a low of something like just under $200 after the 2014 crash and then exploded to $20,000 at its peak some 2.X years later.  That's one hell of a rebound for any asset.  So after "crashing" to under $6000, we've been oscillating back and forth by a couple thousand dollars.  I really don't think that tells you that we're in a bullish phase right now--it just seems to me to be a typical period of very high volatility.

In other words, the big bull run has already happened--twice.  Right now we're post-big bull run.  Could be a dead cat bounce, could be the calm before the rise to $100k.  Nothing is clear at this point.  I'm hoping it's the latter, but there's no telling.

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August 15, 2018, 01:49:41 AM
 #6

I've seen a number of well known traders (e.g. Willy Woo, Tone Vays) see this correction playing out like the one in 2014 and somehow they are seeing comparative patterns. I don't and I believe that this one is very much different starting from different fundamentals and ending with different chart patterns.
Fundamental differences? Let's start with 2014 rise not being natural, but caused by a bot. Fake volume pushed people to follow the market and buy. This time people were following the news and the volume was real.
The crash was followed by the biggest exchange going bankrupt and not long after the Chinese government auditing their exchanges to find out their volume was also fake. Chinese bans extended the bear market for another year. This time the crash was natural and started by the buyers slowly burning out at 20k. The fundamentals were and are still looking good. In fact they are much better than they were in December 2017 when the network fees skyrocketed.
As for the technicals the 2014 charts show much more panic and much smaller market depth. For instance, the first wave took the price down from over 1100 USD to $400, which was a 65% loss. In 2018 we didn't even lose 50% in that first wave. It's also worth noting that in June 2014 there was a huge recovery that managed to keep the price well above 600 USD (close to 40% loss) for more than 2 months. The price have to keep the hover around 12k USD for a couple months for the patterns to look similar.

Since we haven't had this huge dead cat bounce yet, there's not much fuel in the downtrend. Clearly the bulls are much stronger this time and the period of despair, that in 2014 came 12 months after the first wave, seems to already be here.

What do you think?

Everything will come back to the beginning and that is reality in every financial instrument, at this point market will show the right answer, survive or not. I believe this pattern happen in all section and you can see from their history, specially commodities. This is the real fight, keep standing or become scam. I'm safer trader, leave it for now and come back again next year.



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shulio
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August 15, 2018, 05:34:09 PM
 #7

Yes there is fundemental differences between 2014 and 2018 but on the other hand, we cannot unseen that there are very similar patterns between 2018 or 2014.
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August 15, 2018, 05:47:50 PM
Merited by darkangel11 (1)
 #8

The untold amounts of shitcoins are a big difference. At the peak in 2013 there were only about 50 in total. Now there's getting on for 1900.

Of course most of them will die and people will head for BTC having learnt their lesson, but Bitcoin is still a route out for many of those coins so it could simultaneously be gaining in belief while taking a hit.

2014 had a uniquely toxic combination of factors but if there's some professional money here now it's more patient and more merciless than the scared kiddies of 2014. That could add up to something uglier in the shorter term.


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August 15, 2018, 05:53:58 PM
Merited by darkangel11 (1)
 #9


Everything will come back to the beginning and that is reality in every financial instrument, at this point market will show the right answer, survive or not. I believe this pattern happen in all section and you can see from their history, specially commodities. This is the real fight, keep standing or become scam. I'm safer trader, leave it for now and come back again next year.

People just noticed many past events these days to the point that they will compare it and worried at some time because of the current price behaviour. Sitting at $6,000+ in a bear market still a decent price for me. Again, in a "bear market".

As for me, I will not bother to linked whatever patterns that can be linked to 2014 and 2018 trend and will focus on today.

As I always quote, just go with the flow and trust the process. There are lots of reasons to believed that price will soon have another journey to the moon.

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August 15, 2018, 08:03:05 PM
 #10

In my opinion, it is hard to know, I think a lot of the fundamental's have changed since 2014, we have more money in the markets now, so I cant see us mathn 2014.I do predict a bear until year end, I don't see us reaching ATH by at least april/may next year which i hope is achieved with some natural healthy growth.

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August 15, 2018, 08:54:18 PM
 #11

When you use the word "fundamentals", what exactly do you mean?  I get your point about the reasons for the 2014 crash being bot-driven and Mt. Gox-driven.  Is that what you mean?

I've always thought fundamental analysis of bitcoin is a bit sketchy, because FA is best used in the stock and bond market, where one can analyze the business behind the stock or bond.  That can't really be done with bitcoin, because its price is essentially driven by supply and demand.  Sentiment, news, and rumor as well.

I mean its principles, adoption, how well the whole system works. For instance bakkt is a huge positive point in the fundamental analysis.
All that technicals show is how the market is reacting and the balance between the buyers and the sellers. It shows the current mood, but moods tend to change.

Quote
Clearly the bulls are much stronger this time and the period of despair, that in 2014 came 12 months after the first wave, seems to already be here.
I'm not sure what to make of this statement.  I don't know that the bulls are stronger this time.  Bitcoin hit a low of something like just under $200 after the 2014 crash and then exploded to $20,000 at its peak some 2.X years later.  That's one hell of a rebound for any asset.  So after "crashing" to under $6000, we've been oscillating back and forth by a couple thousand dollars.  I really don't think that tells you that we're in a bullish phase right now--it just seems to me to be a typical period of very high volatility.

In other words, the big bull run has already happened--twice.  Right now we're post-big bull run.  Could be a dead cat bounce, could be the calm before the rise to $100k.  Nothing is clear at this point.  I'm hoping it's the latter, but there's no telling.

That's why in my first post iI compared the drops with the dates. Since we aren't falling as sharp and deep as in 2014 the bulls must be stronger, which means that less people are willing to sell / more people are willing to buy this time. I'm not saying that we are in a bullish phase. In fact we are in the phase of accumulation. For the bull market to be confirmed we'd have to break 10k USD.


The untold amounts of shitcoins are a big difference. At the peak in 2013 there were only about 50 in total. Now there's getting on for 1900.

Of course most of them will die and people will head for BTC having learnt their lesson, but Bitcoin is still a route out for many of those coins so it could simultaneously be gaining in belief while taking a hit.

2014 had a uniquely toxic combination of factors but if there's some professional money here now it's more patient and more merciless than the scared kiddies of 2014. That could add up to something uglier in the shorter term.


The shitcoins coming back to BTC might be the reason why it's holding better this time. There's definitely some correlation.
Something uglier will happen if those shitcoin holders that recently moved to BTC decide to cash out and leave the market for good and a trigger for that could be a rejection of the ETFs. That said, there's not much space left to go. Dropping to 5k would mean that all newbies who came to the market last Autumn are already out.

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August 15, 2018, 09:35:27 PM
 #12

The untold amounts of shitcoins are a big difference. At the peak in 2013 there were only about 50 in total. Now there's getting on for 1900.

Of course most of them will die and people will head for BTC having learnt their lesson, but Bitcoin is still a route out for many of those coins so it could simultaneously be gaining in belief while taking a hit.

2014 had a uniquely toxic combination of factors but if there's some professional money here now it's more patient and more merciless than the scared kiddies of 2014. That could add up to something uglier in the shorter term.



Mt Gox and many trouble being happened on bitcoin 2014 but today we are seeing plenty of coins which is top and least in the market. Upon I checked the previous time and current scenario will not match at all.

So we should not consider this time value and marketplace expectation to grow in the market.

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