When you use the word "fundamentals", what exactly do you mean? I get your point about the reasons for the 2014 crash being bot-driven and Mt. Gox-driven. Is that what you mean?
I've always thought fundamental analysis of bitcoin is a bit sketchy, because FA is best used in the stock and bond market, where one can analyze the business behind the stock or bond. That can't really be done with bitcoin, because its price is essentially driven by supply and demand. Sentiment, news, and rumor as well.
I mean its principles, adoption, how well the whole system works. For instance bakkt is a huge positive point in the fundamental analysis.
All that technicals show is how the market is reacting and the balance between the buyers and the sellers. It shows the current mood, but moods tend to change.
Clearly the bulls are much stronger this time and the period of despair, that in 2014 came 12 months after the first wave, seems to already be here.
I'm not sure what to make of this statement. I don't know that the bulls are stronger this time. Bitcoin hit a low of something like just under $200 after the 2014 crash and then exploded to $20,000 at its peak some 2.X years later. That's one hell of a rebound for any asset. So after "crashing" to under $6000, we've been oscillating back and forth by a couple thousand dollars. I really don't think that tells you that we're in a bullish phase right now--it just seems to me to be a typical period of very high volatility.
In other words, the big bull run has already happened--twice. Right now we're post-big bull run. Could be a dead cat bounce, could be the calm before the rise to $100k. Nothing is clear at this point. I'm hoping it's the latter, but there's no telling.
That's why in my first post iI compared the drops with the dates. Since we aren't falling as sharp and deep as in 2014 the bulls must be stronger, which means that less people are willing to sell / more people are willing to buy this time. I'm not saying that we are in a bullish phase. In fact we are in the phase of accumulation. For the bull market to be confirmed we'd have to break 10k USD.
The untold amounts of shitcoins are a big difference. At the peak in 2013 there were only about 50 in total. Now there's getting on for 1900.
Of course most of them will die and people will head for BTC having learnt their lesson, but Bitcoin is still a route out for many of those coins so it could simultaneously be gaining in belief while taking a hit.
2014 had a uniquely toxic combination of factors but if there's some professional money here now it's more patient and more merciless than the scared kiddies of 2014. That could add up to something uglier in the shorter term.
The shitcoins coming back to BTC might be the reason why it's holding better this time. There's definitely some correlation.
Something uglier will happen if those shitcoin holders that recently moved to BTC decide to cash out and leave the market for good and a trigger for that could be a rejection of the ETFs. That said, there's not much space left to go. Dropping to 5k would mean that all newbies who came to the market last Autumn are already out.
