History doesn't repeat itself. We could even see bitcoin testing new lows before going up again but your model can help people to gauge how close the market is bottoming. Another way to gauge market bottom is when the crypto market is boring and many people have already cut their losses.
indeed history does not repeat itself, but history will not change and from that we can learn and analyze to conclude what happens in the future.
History might indeed not repeat itself one by one, but it does rhyme, according to leading economists. In fact many financial experts like Peter Schiff made mistakes predicting the future (stock market collapse) by examining past events and taking them into context. If we get a stock market crash this year, then his methodology was right, he was just a off with the timeline.
All in all I think it's better to rely on data than on endless speculation that is rooted primary in our minds.