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Author Topic: Why I think the Bitcoin wealth pyramid hinders economic development  (Read 2978 times)
ElectricMucus
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October 24, 2011, 03:37:02 PM
 #41

Who has more incentive to see bitcoin succeed than the 0.1% holding 50% of the coins?
People who genuinely plan an exit strategy from the current economic model.



Consider this comparison with the prisoners dilemma:
Lets say keeping the coins equals remaining silent (withholding them is the opposite another hoarder would want)
Lets say spending them equals confession (In that case the other one would have more coins which is what he wants)

We are currently in a situation where almost anybody remains silent. However there is not enough confession (spent coins overall) so that the prisoner gets free (bitcoin rich equals real world rich).
(In our case we would have to apply fuzzy logic since there is no need to totally cooperate or defect however the model would have the pinnacle point at 50%)

This is not the worst possible outcome (that would be a total sellof) but not ideal either. From current outlook holding a lot of coins could mean that you could retire on a stash but it could also take longer than ones lifespan.

So my claim is: People with enough coins could make sure they can retire on their stash if they spend or invest a little.

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October 24, 2011, 03:52:59 PM
 #42

Who has more incentive to see bitcoin succeed than the 0.1% holding 50% of the coins?
People who genuinely plan an exit strategy from the current economic model.



Consider this comparison with the prisoners dilemma:
Lets say keeping the coins equals remaining silent (withholding them is the opposite another hoarder would want)
Lets say spending them equals confession (In that case the other one would have more coins which is what he wants)

We are currently in a situation where almost anybody remains silent. However there is not enough confession (spent coins overall) so that the prisoner gets free (bitcoin rich equals real world rich).
(In our case we would have to apply fuzzy logic since there is no need to totally cooperate or defect however the model would have the pinnacle point at 50%)

What about spending a portion of your wealth to improve the economy (on things like app, POS systems, exchanges, etc that actually grow the economy, not on just buying random junk which only transfers the coins from one hoarder to another)? How does that fit into the prisoners delema, and why do you think the 0.1% are NOT doing that?

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October 24, 2011, 03:57:21 PM
 #43

What about spending a portion of your wealth to improve the economy (on things like app, POS systems, exchanges, etc that actually grow the economy, not on just buying random junk which only transfers the coins from one hoarder to another)? How does that fit into the prisoners delema, and why do you think the 0.1% are NOT doing that?


That would be exactly what I am hoping them to do.
What makes me think that this is not yet happing to the necessary extent:
Almost no growth since summer and declining interest in Bitcoin. We are in better shape that in spring but nowhere better of than 3 months ago.

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October 24, 2011, 03:59:21 PM
 #44

Almost no growth since summer and declining interest in Bitcoin. We are in better shape that in spring but nowhere better of than 3 months ago.

By what measure?
ElectricMucus
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October 24, 2011, 04:02:51 PM
 #45

Almost no growth since summer and declining interest in Bitcoin. We are in better shape that in spring but nowhere better of than 3 months ago.

By what measure?
Of course there are web statistics, client downloads/connected clients, news reference volume and so on but they would say we are in a depression, we wouldn't want to say that are we?

But in the end that is subjective. Make up your own mind.

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November 04, 2011, 08:21:58 PM
 #46

What about spending a portion of your wealth to improve the economy (on things like app, POS systems, exchanges, etc that actually grow the economy, not on just buying random junk which only transfers the coins from one hoarder to another)? How does that fit into the prisoners delema, and why do you think the 0.1% are NOT doing that?


That would be exactly what I am hoping them to do.
What makes me think that this is not yet happing to the necessary extent:
Almost no growth since summer and declining interest in Bitcoin. We are in better shape that in spring but nowhere better of than 3 months ago.

So your case isn't against the wealth pyramid, but actually with the lack of investment? Hoarders don't stop anyone from investing! Go and invest yourself if you think it's worthwhile or stop complaining that no-one else is investing.

Now, if the economy isn't growing due to lack of investment then the price will stagnate == no incentive to hoard. If the economy is growing (and the price of bitcoin with it) then clearly there is a sufficient amount of investment going on. So who cares if people are hoarding. What's the problem?

This is the same self-contradicting deflationary spiral argument in different clothes: the economy can't grow because it's growing too fast.

I suppose you'll just hide behind your faux "strawman" accusation to excuse yourself from making a counter argument.
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November 04, 2011, 09:20:03 PM
 #47

So your case isn't against the wealth pyramid, but actually with the lack of investment? Hoarders don't stop anyone from investing! Go and invest yourself if you think it's worthwhile or stop complaining that no-one else is investing.

You don't invest in a currency. You invest in products and corporations with currency. You can't invest in the infrastructure of a currency with the currency you hope to build that infrastructure around. That requires real value, something the early adopters do not have (but sure do hope to one day).

Quote
Now, if the economy isn't growing due to lack of investment then the price will stagnate == no incentive to hoard. If the economy is growing (and the price of bitcoin with it) then clearly there is a sufficient amount of investment going on. So who cares if people are hoarding. What's the problem?

Investing in the currency does not equal a real investment. All it does is raise the price which provides the opportunity for early adopters to lower that price by selling. So anyone who "invests" does so by giving earlier adopters the opportunity to cash out. The only way the economy is likely to "grow" in this respect is that more people use it as a payment processor and nothing more. That isn't a currency, it's a payment processor. And while the fees might be lower, you have to play a game of hot potato and hope that someone doesn't sell a large chunk of coins between the spender buying coins and the receiver cashing out.

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November 04, 2011, 10:04:10 PM
 #48

Old coins barely move. You can see that if you dig though the block chain a little.
I mean, fuck not everybody is retarded and some of those startups might have been partially funded by early adopter coins but a majority of the 0.1% still thinks they gonna live their golden years in a castle by doing nothing.

Kinda like all those lazy hoarders with stocks and bonds in their 401k's and pension funds. F those guys, right?

Bitcoin is differnt. With current price development the only people who can fund a startup with their coins are those 0.1%. Of course that is not for everybody that's why the alternative is partial consumption from people who startup from the fiat side.

The main thought process seems to be 'they never know I have 100k coins, I'll use those when I can buy myself an island'. Problem is the economy needs a small percentage of those coins to get started because the public now involved to with bitcoins plans to buy a new car by then. (Real world examplified but see the rest of the argumentation above)

I think I've gone over that in enough detail to make it clear.

Old coins barely move. You can see that if you dig though the block chain a little.

So? What if those keys are lost? What if they want to keep their older coins for their savings?
I can totally follow the thought process but that's not the point.


i get so tired reading your BS.

what the Bitcoin economy needs to get business investment going is more USD's.  i get asked to invest in Bitcoin businesses from time to time and its USD's they want and need to get going.  the more USD's or other fiat that flow into our economy the better.  this is what will cause success.

forget the hoarders; they're not the problem.
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November 04, 2011, 10:07:25 PM
 #49

So your case isn't against the wealth pyramid, but actually with the lack of investment? Hoarders don't stop anyone from investing! Go and invest yourself if you think it's worthwhile or stop complaining that no-one else is investing.

You don't invest in a currency. You invest in products and corporations with currency. You can't invest in the infrastructure of a currency with the currency you hope to build that infrastructure around. That requires real value, something the early adopters do not have (but sure do hope to one day).

Quote
Now, if the economy isn't growing due to lack of investment then the price will stagnate == no incentive to hoard. If the economy is growing (and the price of bitcoin with it) then clearly there is a sufficient amount of investment going on. So who cares if people are hoarding. What's the problem?

Investing in the currency does not equal a real investment. All it does is raise the price which provides the opportunity for early adopters to lower that price by selling. So anyone who "invests" does so by giving earlier adopters the opportunity to cash out. The only way the economy is likely to "grow" in this respect is that more people use it as a payment processor and nothing more. That isn't a currency, it's a payment processor. And while the fees might be lower, you have to play a game of hot potato and hope that someone doesn't sell a large chunk of coins between the spender buying coins and the receiver cashing out.

are you kidding?  the currency markets are the biggest of all markets on global exchanges.  hedge funds, banks, you name it, invest in currencies all the time.   one should look at a currency as just another investment class that has the potential to rise or fall just like any other.

i still argue that the best thing for the Bitcoin economy to get going would be a smooth rising price that would cause everyones Bitcoin holdings to go up along with investment optimism.
Etlase2
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November 04, 2011, 10:10:31 PM
 #50

i get so tired reading your BS.

what the Bitcoin economy needs to get business investment going is more USD's.  i get asked to invest in Bitcoin businesses from time to time and its USD's they want and need to get going.  the more USD's or other fiat that flow into our economy the better.  this is what will cause success.

forget the hoarders; they're not the problem.

So your plan is:

1) Make a lot of trash tokens early on, hoard them, then make them really hard to get later on so they are scarce and a lot of value is demanded for the ones available
2) Encourage people to put real value (USDs, whatever that real value may be worth) into the currency so that...
3) The people who have a lot of trash tokens can cash them out for USD and hopefully...
4) Invest it (USD!!) into infrastructure for the currency so that...
5) The people who invested real value into the trash tokens can make more off of future people investing in trash tokens because of that infrastructure

Cool, I really see this plan of "I know how to use your money better than you do" working. I mean, there is nothing stopping step 4 from being "buy an island" but we need to have faith in these anonymous overloads, amirite??

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November 04, 2011, 10:40:17 PM
 #51

i get so tired reading your BS.

what the Bitcoin economy needs to get business investment going is more USD's.  i get asked to invest in Bitcoin businesses from time to time and its USD's they want and need to get going.  the more USD's or other fiat that flow into our economy the better.  this is what will cause success.

forget the hoarders; they're not the problem.

So your plan is:

1) Make a lot of trash tokens early on, hoard them, then make them really hard to get later on so they are scarce and a lot of value is demanded for the ones available
2) Encourage people to put real value (USDs, whatever that real value may be worth) into the currency so that...
3) The people who have a lot of trash tokens can cash them out for USD and hopefully...
4) Invest it (USD!!) into infrastructure for the currency so that...
5) The people who invested real value into the trash tokens can make more off of future people investing in trash tokens because of that infrastructure

Cool, I really see this plan of "I know how to use your money better than you do" working. I mean, there is nothing stopping step 4 from being "buy an island" but we need to have faith in these anonymous overloads, amirite??

first of all, the mere fact you're trying to start an alt chain makes your arguments biased.

second, there is no "plan" mainly b/c it doesn't matter what you or i say, things are what they are, and the economy is moving along according to market dynamics as i would expect it to.  why you guys argue so much against large holders of btc, "hoarders" according to you, is a waste of time and energy.  it is what it is and you can't change it.  clearly within this thread alone there are different ways to look at these holders and yours is just one opinion.

most of these "hoarders" or early adopters are miners who invested their USD's into hardware, software, electricity, time, effort, and intuition when Bitcoins were worthless.  others actually bought their coins from these guys.  either way, why do you begrudge them?  just b/c they have more than you?
ElectricMucus
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November 04, 2011, 10:49:49 PM
 #52

shit is getting nowhere.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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