When do goldbugs give up?

[cellard]

I was wondering, what does it take for a hardcore goldbug like Peter Schiff, or our very own r0ach, to admit that they fucked up big time holding gold instead of Bitcoin?

Currently gold is around 7 $trillion marketcap, I haven't paid attention to gold to get the exact value but last year it was around that. Bitcoin is around 100 $billion as of today.

At what point will some traditional goldbugs publicly accept that they should have at least, diversified some of their gold into Bitcoin? I have added a poll with 5 options, the most conservative one is when BTC reaches 1 $trillion, because I don't expect any of them to admit they were wrong any time sooner than that.

The poll never expires.

[1713573065]

1713573065

[1713573065]

1713573065

[1713573065]

1713573065

[1Referee]

$1 trillion dollar market cap for Bitcoin is such an important and powerful statement, that it will definitely result in not only capital parked in Gold to shift towards Bitcoin, but pretty much all legacy assets will start bleeding to a certain degree.

After that $1 trillion dollar milestone the "slow" capital (the braver institutions, governments, hedge funds, royal families, etc) will start to massively inflate Bitcoin's price towards even greater hights. It would be a tremendous achievement when governments will finally start stocking up Bitcoin instead of just Gold.

It's actually quite 'easy' to see Bitcoin hit a market cap of $1 trillion. Bitcoin at $60,000 with a circulating supply of around 18 million coins at that point is only a matter of time. Realistically, we're just another bull run away from doing it.

[cellard]

$1 trillion dollar market cap for Bitcoin is such an important and powerful statement, that it will definitely result in not only capital parked in Gold to shift towards Bitcoin, but pretty much all legacy assets will start bleeding to a certain degree.

After that $1 trillion dollar milestone the "slow" capital (the braver institutions, governments, hedge funds, royal families, etc) will start to massively inflate Bitcoin's price towards even greater hights. It would be a tremendous achievement when governments will finally start stocking up Bitcoin instead of just Gold.

It's actually quite 'easy' to see Bitcoin hit a market cap of $1 trillion. Bitcoin at $60,000 with a circulating supply of around 18 million coins at that point is only a matter of time. Realistically, we're just another bull run away from doing it.

Yeah we can hit the milestone by the next halving, or even before that if it goes into rocket mode earlier. After the $trillion psychological barrier is hit, I expect a big FOMO by big players. Most likely big players will use OTC but this will translate in the market prices short after since there is always someone that knows about these huge OTC deals but they don't have access to OTC liquidity so they go to Coinbase or whatever to pick a bunch and the price rise starts.

But still, I think goldbugs are too deep in denial. 1 $trillion may not be enough. Perhaps it takes half of gold marketcap's for them to wake up, or even as long as gold has a bigger marketcap they will think BTC is just a temporal trend which will go away. I just can't wait to hit the first trillion, once we hit that the rest will happen pretty damn fast.

[markj113]

I was wondering, what does it take for a hardcore goldbug like Peter Schiff, or our very own r0ach, to admit that they fucked up big time holding gold instead of Bitcoin?

Currently gold is around 7 $trillion marketcap, I haven't paid attention to gold to get the exact value but last year it was around that. Bitcoin is around 100 $billion as of today.

At what point will some traditional goldbugs publicly accept that they should have at least, diversified some of their gold into Bitcoin? I have added a poll with 5 options, the most conservative one is when BTC reaches 1 $trillion, because I don't expect any of them to admit they were wrong any time sooner than that.

The poll never expires.

I dumped all my bitcoin into gold when it was near $19k so who fucked up?

Gold always was and always will be the ultimate store of wealth, you just have to ignore short term price noise.  I still stick to my prediciton that in the next few years central banks will release their own state issued crypto and bitcoin will be banned in most developed countries as it will be seen as direct competition by those in power.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

I love this topic, but why not focus on the price per ounce instead of market cap?  For the average person, that's a foreign concept when it comes to the gold market but the price of an Oz is not.  I don't know what gold's market cap is, but I do think Schiff and all the other permabulls fucked up big time.  They will never publicly admit it, though, because they benefit when people buy gold.  They will ALWAYS be telling the public to buy gold & silver.

Look at this article.  Instead of being realistic and calling a bear market for what it is, they're recommending people get into metals now that they're at 2015 prices!  These kinds of people have been telling people to buy for many years now, and never to sell.  Meanwhile if you bought any metals in 2011-2014 you're still underwater and may never make a profit.  

And forget about metals being an inflation hedge.  If you bought metals in that interval, you're not hedging anything.  You lost money, period.  Your money lost purchasing power.

I would absolutely love it if people like Schiff came out and admitted they're hyping a declining asset, but they're never going to do it.  Not at ANY market cap.

or our very own r0ach

I haven't read anything from him lately.  Maybe he posts in sections I have blocked, but I do recall him being very well-spoken if a little nutty.  Nothing like Schiff, however.  Schiff apparently has a very large fanbase of people who will follow anything he recommends.  That's dangerous when he tells people to buy something that's been falling for years and still can fall a lot.  Gold is just under $1200.  Don't think for a minute that it couldn't go back down to $200 or that silver couldn't fall to $5.

Is that any different to all the muppets here claiming "now is the time to buy bitcoin", "you'll never see these prices again".

That's a valid question.  Here's the thing:  I don't hear a lot of people in positions of power (like Schiff, who has a platform) hyping bitcoin incessantly.  True, you do hear it a lot on bitcointalk, but that's to be expected.  Also, bitcoin hasn't been in a 7-year bear market.  There have been amazing opportunities to buy bitcoin ever since 2009.

On the other hand, people who were telling others that bitcoin was a screaming buy at $20,000 were just as deluded as any metals permabull.

[markj113]

Instead of being realistic and calling a bear market for what it is, they're recommending people get into metals now that they're at 2015 prices!

Is that any different to all the muppets here claiming "now is the time to buy bitcoin", "you'll never see these prices again".

There is never bad news in bitcoin, its either "to the moon" or "hell yes its just crashed buy now or you'll regret it", heard it all the way down from $19k to $6k.

The way I look at it there is a reason russia and china are buying gold and silver as quickly as possible.  They are not accumulating bitcoin, Bitcoin's real world utility is going backwards with many previous retailers accepting it now ditching it.  All that is left is a speculative monster used to enrich early adpoters at the expense of greater fools.  Money to be made in the short term, doomed in the mid to long term.

Also, bitcoin hasn't been in a 7-year bear market.  There have been amazing opportunities to buy bitcoin ever since 2009.

Bitcoin has only just exceeded 7 years old so tough to have a that long a bear market, you also have to take in to account currencies as we dont all use the $, the gold price spike after Brexit paid off my current house .

I think the trick with bitcoin and gold is not to get greedy, set yourself goals and targets then take profits at the correct times.  Never go all in on either and dont overstretch yourself which will force you to sell at a loss.  Sticking to this principle has got me financial security for the rest of my life given my daughter a great start (owns her own house at 10 years old with no mortgage )

[LeGaulois]

It is still more wisely to invest in gold than Bitcoin. At least with Gold, your funds are somehow secured while with Bitcoin the volatility makes it too much risk. Don't worry they don't fuck up anything and they are still smarter than us. They proves it to us not long ago...

[Febo]

I was wondering, what does it take for a hardcore goldbug like Peter Schiff, or our very own r0ach, to admit that they fucked up big time holding gold instead of Bitcoin?

Currently gold is around 7 $trillion marketcap, I haven't paid attention to gold to get the exact value but last year it was around that. Bitcoin is around 100 $billion as of today.

At what point will some traditional goldbugs publicly accept that they should have at least, diversified some of their gold into Bitcoin? I have added a poll with 5 options, the most conservative one is when BTC reaches 1 $trillion, because I don't expect any of them to admit they were wrong any time sooner than that.

The poll never expires.

Why you think roach dont hold any Bitcoin?  He have probably more then all that will post in this thread combined.    Now about the Gold. Gold will have value even 100 years form now. No matter of Bitcoin.

[BitHodler]

It is still more wisely to invest in gold than Bitcoin. At least with Gold, your funds are somehow secured while with Bitcoin the volatility makes it too much risk.

It all depends on your outlook. In the last 5 years gold has been down like 15% which if you also add the loss of purchasing power, makes it even a less fruitful option to go for with Bitcoin being around.

Everyone has its own opinion of course, but we should at least acknowledge the potential of Bitcoin's growth and how it might disrupt everything the traditional system stands for today. If you don't try you don't know.

I'm not going anywhere in life by having my wealth invested in traditional options that yield you a few percent if you're lucky. I'm at a point in life where I can take a significant amount of risk, and I'm sticking to it.

As for OP, the only challenge will be the first trillion. I can see a scenario where various entities will try to prevent Bitcoin from reaching that market cap because of how psychologically important it is. After the first trillion the sky is the limit.

[gentlemand]

Goldbugs get a hefty amount of derision too despite their pet rock having value being thousands of years old as a concept.

I don't think they'll ever give up but they may well die off in unprecedented numbers. Never in my entire life have I heard anyone below the age of 70 express the slightest interest in metals. As long as it's an integral part of international finance it's not going anywhere but I expect retail to fade.

As for me, it's now 38 years since gold's all time high and it's over 50% down from then inflation adjusted. I'll take me chances elsewhere. I'll be long dead before it's up there again. And silver is the tangible equivalent of a shitcoin as far as I'm concerned.

[figmentofmyass]

Gold always was and always will be the ultimate store of wealth, you just have to ignore short term price noise. 

well said. the point here is about value storage. gold may not rise nearly as much as bitcoin over time (though the 2001-2011 run was pretty magnificent). but there are other considerations. gold has a history of thousands of years; bitcoin, less than 10. that's a huge difference in risk profile.

that's why it makes sense for wealthy people to dump only a small amount into bitcoin. they need to hedge wisely, not strike it rich.

[exstasie]

It is still more wisely to invest in gold than Bitcoin. At least with Gold, your funds are somehow secured while with Bitcoin the volatility makes it too much risk.

Then again, gold is down 15% over the past few months. Sure, it hasn't seen as much downside as BTC this year, but it's been a harsh year nonetheless for goldbugs.

The 1-month chart is quite ugly....strong downtrend in effect. I accumulated quite a bit physical gold near the lows in late 2015. I'm starting to sweat over those positions a bit.

[MinerHQ]

Gold always was and always will be the ultimate store of wealth, you just have to ignore short term price noise. 

well said. the point here is about value storage. gold may not rise nearly as much as bitcoin over time (though the 2001-2011 run was pretty magnificent). but there are other considerations. gold has a history of thousands of years; bitcoin, less than 10. that's a huge difference in risk profile.

that's why it makes sense for wealthy people to dump only a small amount into bitcoin. they need to hedge wisely, not strike it rich.

It not only just 10 years history but bitcoin has proven until now that it can be pumped like anyone can't be imagined and after that, it can come back to its original value within no time. This makes many investors think hard to invest in bitcoin. But I do agree that one should invest their small percentage of money into bitcoin and it may do wonders in near future. Diversifying funds always a good in investment.

[pooya87]

I still stick to my prediciton that in the next few years central banks will release their own state issued crypto and bitcoin will be banned in most developed countries as it will be seen as direct competition by those in power.

every day that passes and with every increase in adoption, banning bitcoin becomes harder and harder specially as they regulate bitcoin. for example in a couple of years as price hits $60k and we start seeing big businesses shape around bitcoin (like Coinbase which already exists), then they can't just ban bitcoin and kill these multi million dollar businesses. so we may end up seeing bitcoin banned in some under developed countries like India and Bangladesh which this one has already banned bitcoin, but there is no way it can be banned in developed countries like US, Japan,... that will have already been mass adopted bitcoin by then.

[supermine]

Gold is for the olde generation people,here we are into the most modern technology so they will never give on the gold until the market value of bitcoin exceeds the cap value of gold,so it is still long time process since we are just about $100 Billion only for now!

[wuvdoll]

At what point will some traditional goldbugs publicly accept that they should have at least, diversified some of their gold into Bitcoin? I have added a poll with 5 options, the most conservative one is when BTC reaches 1 $trillion, because I don't expect any of them to admit they were wrong any time sooner than that.

Those orthodox investors will never accept and adopt new technologies, I am afraid. Moreover, bitcoin's marketcap is the criteria only for the people who are following bitcoin in the consideration of investing/adopting it whereas for the people who are still believe into the multi fold futures of gold, only enlighten them with long hours of explanation about the futures of bitcoin and how it is going to replace paypal/dollars/gold with their own specialized reasons, may enable them to think over to switch/add bitcoin to their portfolio.

By January 2017, bitcoin prices beat gold prices of one ounce similarly we may expect bitcoin marketcap will beat gold's in coming years as without Warren Buffet kind of old veteran's support also bitcoin is growing with rapid pace. Probably if Warren Buffet and other stock market giants and institutions will get convinced about the futures of bitcoin then those 'goldbugs' may change their minds.

[markj113]

And silver is the tangible equivalent of a shitcoin as far as I'm concerned.

Except silver is one of the most important industrial metals used in electronics, solar panels, photography etc so nothing like a shitcoin with no real world application.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

gold has a history of thousands of years

That's goldbug propaganda as far as I'm concerned.  I read that same statement over and over on coinflation's articles, and it doesn't really mean anything.  It doesn't make a lick of difference when gold has been in a bear market for years now.

Except silver is one of the most important industrial metals used in electronics, solar panels, photography etc so nothing like a shitcoin with no real world application.

I won't argue your point about shitcoins, because you're absolutely correct, but as far as the statement about silver's industrial uses goes, that's just more propaganda.  All of that silver used in industry is recycled.  None of it is really lost.  The US Mint alone is producing millions of silver eagles a year in addition to all of their silver commemoratives and proof sets--and there's enough silver around for all of the other mints in the world to basically do the same thing. 

My point is that there no shortage whatsoever of silver, and it doesn't matter if it's being used in industry.  You didn't explicitly make that point that there's a shortage, but I hear that argument a lot in the coinflation articles I mentioned.  And it's bullshit.

[markj113]

I won't argue your point about shitcoins, because you're absolutely correct, but as far as the statement about silver's industrial uses goes, that's just more propaganda.  All of that silver used in industry is recycled.  None of it is really lost.  The US Mint alone is producing millions of silver eagles a year in addition to all of their silver commemoratives and proof sets--and there's enough silver around for all of the other mints in the world to basically do the same thing.  

My point is that there no shortage whatsoever of silver, and it doesn't matter if it's being used in industry.  You didn't explicitly make that point that there's a shortage, but I hear that argument a lot in the coinflation articles I mentioned.  And it's bullshit.

Actually its the other way around, gold is mostly recycled and silver is usually not.

BTC is just electronic digits that are infinitely divisible so there will never be a shortage, it just depends what value you put on a satoshi.  Supply is also only limited by a few lines of code that could be changed if the miners + big players decided to do so.  Physical metals are finite and industrial processes and real world use requires a set amount and there is only so much you can keep pulling out of the ground (not taking in to account asteroid mining but that is generations away)

You cant argue the fact that the elite, governments and central banks all base their wealth on physical gold holdings and continue to accumulate it (except retarded Canada).  Not one is hording bitcoin.

Central banks run the world with governments their public facing puppets.  The minute they consider bitcoin a risk to their power base and control they will do everything in their power to end it.  All the signs point to state issued cryptos in the pipeline and that doesnt bode well for "unregulated" crytpos.

[el kaka22]

I never knew we were this close to 1 trillion marketcap. I was expecting it to be a lot higher. $60K per bitcoin doesn't sound impossible neither. I think 1 trillion will just start the slow leaking to bitcoin from legacy investments. Also if you think investors ever accept their mistakes than you have never met with any of them in your life. Gold can stay at 7 trillion forever and bitcoin alone itself can become 100 trillion tomorrow and no investor I have ever met will accept their mistakes. They will spew bs like "its risky" or "gold is bla bla" and what not but will never say "I should have invested in bitcoin a bit" or anything similar.