Regulators Won't Approve Bitcoin ETF Anytime Soon

[Drysprinkles291]

If the SEC’s motivation for suppressing a bitcoin ETF is, in fact, a lack of data and markets, they're going to have fewer reasons to decline the product once institutional capital makes its way into the crypto space. You'd think it's largely expected to coincide with the opening of regulated crypto exchange Bakkt this year though? What do you think? Will they approve?

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[avikz]

The way crypto space is progressing and the way corporates are showing interest into it, ETF approval is a matter of time only! However, I don't see it happening in 2018 or even in the first quarter of 2019 as well because of the unclear regulatory framework in the crypto space and especially in US (The approving country). There are a lot of grey areas in the current crypto legislation which needs to be cleared out before SEC actually approves the ETF.

One of the major roadblocks is that only Accredited investors are allowed to invest in cryptos in the US. The market is still not wide open to the common public yet! There is no roadmap given by SEC on the authorized investors of ETF. Like this one example, there are more confusing (half drafter) regulations available due to which it may lead to a greater confusion in future, which needs to be cleared first before the approval of ETF.

Buy hey! Seat tight! There will be delays and revisions but the future is inevitable!

[Kemarit]

If the SEC’s motivation for suppressing a bitcoin ETF is, in fact, a lack of data and markets, they're going to have fewer reasons to decline the product once institutional capital makes its way into the crypto space. You'd think it's largely expected to coincide with the opening of regulated crypto exchange Bakkt this year though? What do you think? Will they approve?

As @avikz has pointed out, its inevitable that SEC will approved a Bitcoin ETF's in the future. One of the major reasons why they kept on disapproving it is because its prone to market manipulation. However, if you have witnessing in the last few months or so, bitcoin tends to be stable, I don't know, I only have a theory that investors are not 'pumping' it in hopes that SEC will look at the price and say, hey its about time to give them the go signal since the market is not that volatile anymore. 

I'm not sure about the Bakkt bitcoin future though and I'm not seeing any coincidence whatsoever about SEC approving Bitcoin ETF's and Bakkt. It good if we see both of them go live simultaneously at it will push the price again coming the end of the year, so let's see how everything pans out.

[1Referee]

I'm not sure about the Bakkt bitcoin future though and I'm not seeing any coincidence whatsoever about SEC approving Bitcoin ETF's and Bakkt. It good if we see both of them go live simultaneously at it will push the price again coming the end of the year, so let's see how everything pans out.

Bakkt has significantly more chances to come through with regulatory approval since they fall under the sight of the CFTC. Considering that the CFTC has let the futures markets go live last year, I'm sure they'll let Bakkt do its thing as well.

The only positive aspect of Bakkt is that futures are physically backed by the underlying asset, and not a gambling related instrument that's being offered by the CME & CBOE.

I really hope that whenever Bakkt goes live in full, they keep in mind that starting in a bear market isn't going to generate much demand for their product. It's not because it has failed, but simply because of how most of the demand is being generated during bull cycles with how speculative this market is. We'll see what happens. I'm not expecting anything, so there is nothing that can disappoint me in that regard.

[squatter]

Bakkt has significantly more chances to come through with regulatory approval since they fall under the sight of the CFTC. Considering that the CFTC has let the futures markets go live last year, I'm sure they'll let Bakkt do its thing as well.

But the CFTC didn't really "let the futures markets go live." The exchanges self-certified without their permission. The CFTC would have had to amend their regulations to prevent that from happening. In this case, Bakkt needs affirmative approval from the CFTC.

My gut says you're right about ease of approval though, because that's how it went with LedgerX.

The only positive aspect of Bakkt is that futures are physically backed by the underlying asset, and not a gambling related instrument that's being offered by the CME & CBOE.

I'm guessing Bakkt will mostly be used for speculation, just like the CME & CBOE markets. If you look at physically delivered markets on Nymex or Comex, most traders close out positions before expiration.