forget about trying to predict how high the next ATH will be

forget about trying to predict how soon the next ATH will be

instead realise the most important thing is to know what the LOW average is expected to be.

and here is a tip.. look at the cost of mining.

EG - back of an envelope math...

take 47exahash network hashrate, thats 47000000 terahash

an asic is 14trra (fixd number worth remembering)

so 47000000/14

so thats 3.3mill ASICS needed

imagine electric

at 6cents an hour (to cover 5cent/kwh at an asics 1.3kw (back of envelop rounded math)

0.06*3.3m

=$198k an hour /6blocks /12.5btc =$2640/btc for electric

imagiine unit cost

recent batch of $850 per asic and lastability is 1 year..

so lets break it down to an hour 850/365/24 = ill call it 10cents for back of envelop math

0.10*3.3m

=$330k an hour /6 blocks /12.5btc = $4400/btc for unit cost

total cost to mine= $7k/btc

final tip. miners dont sell coins on exchanges instantly as soon as they receive them

so sorry this math cannot predict prices to the minute.

no one can predict exact prices, exact dates

no one can predict how high a hype bubble the next ATH will be or when

no one can predict if or when prices will stay low or for how long

but it can guage roughly the low area/zone for the month

so take a months overview and take the lowst hashrate you see and the highest. to see the area/zone of break even

https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days37exa(28th july)-54exa (11th aug)

and look at the months low of 37exa and months top of 54exa.. you will see a range of $5.7k-$8k for the month. and now guess what the high and low bitcoin PRICE swing was for the month.. yep $5.7k-$8k

magic right... nope. its math

you can atleast find a safe zone of average expectancy of the low price to know if bitcoin is near a low(within the area/zone) or hyped up(way above the area/zone)

final final tip

look more broadly at the hasrate over a year. and draw a couple lines of expected future direction of the lowst hash expctation and highest expectation.. then do some math