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Author Topic: longforecast.com 2017 vs 2018  (Read 265 times)
cellard (OP)
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August 21, 2018, 05:39:54 PM
 #1

The other day someone mentioned this website called longforecast.com, I wasn't aware of it but it seems pretty useful to sense a long term sentiment of the market or at least a part of it.

Well here is the current data:

https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd

The even more interesting part is that I was able to found the oldest data the website had at least according to the wayback machine webpage, and look at the prices:



This noone was expecting $20k, not even $10k, hell not even $5k. And now we are looking at $50k predictions. This shows how quick market sentiment can change in Bitcoin. If you aren't holding any you can miss out very quickly.
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August 21, 2018, 09:20:15 PM
 #2

This sites are based on nothing to make this predictions, never believe in people that predicts prices, they dont know what are they talking about. Price will go where it have to, no one know what is going to happen with bitcoin and altcoin price. That is my advise to you and all the people that are reading this comment. I used to belieive in this people, I do not anyomore.

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August 21, 2018, 09:39:57 PM
 #3

This noone was expecting $20k, not even $10k, hell not even $5k.

to be fair, there was no reason or basis to make time-based predictions like that until the market went parabolic in july/august 2017. looking at their estimates, i doubt their model could accurately account for "bubble periods" anyway.

And now we are looking at $50k predictions. This shows how quick market sentiment can change in Bitcoin. If you aren't holding any you can miss out very quickly.

that goes both ways. very few expected a bubble, but very few expected the top either. those sky-high predictions often come long after the top is in. and the losses for the bagholders add up quickly. Smiley

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August 21, 2018, 10:40:29 PM
 #4

This noone was expecting $20k, not even $10k, hell not even $5k.

to be fair, there was no reason or basis to make time-based predictions like that until the market went parabolic in july/august 2017. looking at their estimates, i doubt their model could accurately account for "bubble periods" anyway.

And now we are looking at $50k predictions. This shows how quick market sentiment can change in Bitcoin. If you aren't holding any you can miss out very quickly.

that goes both ways. very few expected a bubble, but very few expected the top either. those sky-high predictions often come long after the top is in. and the losses for the bagholders add up quickly. Smiley

Some expectations have good outcomes, but most of them wasn't good enough when it comes to market fluctuations. More holders had to lose bigger amounts of btc before they could hit up their target, and the very difficult part of failed expectations was the price declined so fast than expected one. Nowadays we should be tough on our decisions and those pumping price cannot be trusted either, because it quickly crashes someday.
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August 22, 2018, 03:59:44 AM
 #5

This noone was expecting $20k, not even $10k, hell not even $5k. And now we are looking at $50k predictions. This shows how quick market sentiment can change in Bitcoin. If you aren't holding any you can miss out very quickly.

that is why i like comparing bitcoin price charts with an S curve not a normal curve which you extrapolate data on. and that is how the major rises so far occurred. most of the times we are at the bottom of that S curve with a slow rise (compare to what comes next not slow on its own), then the reality hits and the money starts pouring in and price shoots upwards and then after correction we start a new S curve.
and all of these curves fall on the bottom of a bigger S curve which will happen after the mass adoption. Wink

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August 22, 2018, 06:28:26 AM
 #6

It's funny how Bitcoin is way above the long-term prediction but all we get now are complaints about prices anyway. Really puts things into perspective. It's also interesting how erratic their current price predictions are.

This noone was expecting $20k, not even $10k, hell not even $5k.

to be fair, there was no reason or basis to make time-based predictions like that until the market went parabolic in july/august 2017. looking at their estimates, i doubt their model could accurately account for "bubble periods" anyway.

Is there a model that can account for "bubble periods"? How successful have they been? Genuinely curious.

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August 22, 2018, 06:53:49 AM
 #7

This prediction seems very incorrect and probably don't have strong base. Like i said Bitcoin price moves unpredictable and it is almost impossible to predict his moves. So you should not believe all these prediction especially old ones.

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August 22, 2018, 07:10:57 AM
 #8

Is there a model that can account for "bubble periods"? How successful have they been? Genuinely curious.

The best thing I've come across is Johnson Lau's BETI. It's basically a linear regression model. The index indicates a range of expected volatility, and since it's based on a regression of historical price, it probably does a better job accounting for the exponential growth periods. It's not that great for short term forecasting. However, it's valuable in that it shows you the direction and potential scope of a mean regression or bubble phase.

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August 22, 2018, 09:51:57 AM
Last edit: August 22, 2018, 12:44:40 PM by Lucius
 #9

When you look how bad they made those prediction it is clear that they have no idea about anything, it is like some child's play with numbers. Moreover when I check price predictions for period 2019-2022 it does not look a bit encouraging for anyone involved with BTC. For example 2019 will bring us only 10k$-13k$ in December, and then year after that 20k$-27k$. Maybe it looks real to somebody, but for me it is pretty low price two years from now.

Based on their previous prediction they probably will not be successful with this one, some 80% or maybe even 100% up on every price they predicted looks much better.


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August 22, 2018, 11:50:02 AM
 #10

Is there a model that can account for "bubble periods"? How successful have they been? Genuinely curious.

Not really in my opinion. It's always after the event that you can look back and see whether or not you're right and it really fits in your bubble model (or whaver people like to call it).

In the end, everything works and makes sense till it doesn't. All these statistical examples are great to browse through and compare with previous years, but people some times tend to dig so far into it, that they lose track of reality and the plenty of variables that could change the sentiment of this market in an instant.

Reality is that the majority of the people didn't call top, and the majority of the people didn't call bottom. We're surfing up and down on the waves of fear and greed, where people constantly adjust their opinion and outlook.

Even if people managed to accurately call top or bottom, it was pure luck.
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August 22, 2018, 12:42:17 PM
 #11

To get acquainted a useful site, but I'm not going to follow these predictions.
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August 22, 2018, 02:44:58 PM
 #12

Honestly I would have been a lot more happier about bitcoin prices if it was just going straight up like that but slowly. Instead of going from $1k to $6k to $20k to $6k again. That kind of bump killed bitcoin a lot and now causes us to lose hope on bitcoin however if you take out the $20k its actually doing great, all you have to do to be happy about the price is to take out that one month prices over $10k in December, if you take that out we are golden. This list shows prices lower than right now but doesn't show a $20k spike in the prices and no downfall of $20k to $6k in prices neither so its a risky 50% 50% chance, you either don't get $20k but don't get the long bear, or you get the $20k but you get the $6k downfall too.

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August 22, 2018, 03:59:12 PM
 #13

market conditions are very difficult to guess, even though using such calculations.
some people don't hold bitcoin because of the bad market conditions, after the bear market ends, it will buy.

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August 24, 2018, 11:51:48 PM
 #14

Indeed. We've seen this countless times now how the market sentiment shifts along with just a small change in price, let alone a bull market like last year. It's interesting to see that the maximum forecasted price by the end of the year was $3k, while right now, such levels would be considered to be extremely cheap and probably the lowest bottom that we'll see in this bear market.

It really shows the unpredictability of the markets in BTC.

Prices could go down one day and all of a sudden surge in the next - all we know that is in the long run, as institutional interest and adoption piles up, prices will grow in the long term. That's why I believe it's a great time to accumulate at cheap prices.

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August 25, 2018, 07:11:16 PM
 #15

Prices could go down one day and all of a sudden surge in the next - all we know that is in the long run, as institutional interest and adoption piles up, prices will grow in the long term. That's why I believe it's a great time to accumulate at cheap prices.
Everything with fundamental value goes up throughout the years, even when it comes to stocks. That's how Warren Buffett has managed to build up an insane amount of wealth by investing conservatively.

People don't often think about it, but Bitcoin will at some point become so large, that it won't be able to flip as easily as it does right now. It might even end up becoming a slow mover just like what gold is right now.

I think by the time it reaches that stage, we'll really get to see how capable Bitcoin is to function as currency. Its main obstacle isn't scalability, but volatility. If that's no longer an issue, we might be getting somewhere.

LN development is picking up nicely and I hope that we'll be able to get some clients to play with this year. Currently there is Eclair Wallet, but it doesn't work most of the times, which is pretty frustrating.

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August 25, 2018, 09:06:23 PM
 #16

People don't often think about it, but Bitcoin will at some point become so large, that it won't be able to flip as easily as it does right now. It might even end up becoming a slow mover just like what gold is right now.

I think by the time it reaches that stage, we'll really get to see how capable Bitcoin is to function as currency. Its main obstacle isn't scalability, but volatility. If that's no longer an issue, we might be getting somewhere.

we'll get there eventually, but i think it'll be quite a few years.

bitcoin's entire history is characterized by a demand-heavy market, hence the trend. high volatility will remain with us until the market reaches equilibrium. that's impossible as long as we're in this nascent stage of growth (sometimes exponential growth).

in the sense of tech adoption curves (eg like telephones, internet, etc) we're still very far from the plateau of mainstream adoption where i'd expect to find equilibrium. we're still below 10%.

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August 25, 2018, 09:47:00 PM
 #17

we'll get there eventually, but i think it'll be quite a few years.

bitcoin's entire history is characterized by a demand-heavy market, hence the trend. high volatility will remain with us until the market reaches equilibrium. that's impossible as long as we're in this nascent stage of growth (sometimes exponential growth).

in the sense of tech adoption curves (eg like telephones, internet, etc) we're still very far from the plateau of mainstream adoption where i'd expect to find equilibrium. we're still below 10%.
Agreed, but everything related to crypto progresses much faster than anything we've seen before, which is a good thing in my opinion. I do believe that the coming few years will be where we can book the most growth in price terms.

Last year's bull run was a welcome wake-up call to have this entire ecosystem finally scale upwards in order to not have people go through the same dramatic situation as what happened last year. It was horrible.

I'm glad that we're not going through frequent adoption booms with how Bitcoin just can't handle any more network stressing. Everything literally depends on LN to be usable and safe enough before the next boom.

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August 25, 2018, 10:11:55 PM
 #18

market conditions are very difficult to guess, even though using such calculations.
some people don't hold bitcoin because of the bad market conditions, after the bear market ends, it will buy.
The bear market will probably be out of time. This is seen as an opportunity for small investors and expects high capital. But we should not deny opportunities to earn money. So consider your actions, to achieve the goal.

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August 25, 2018, 11:21:31 PM
 #19

It was dumb to predict linear growth for Bitcoin, the market was volatile and still is volatile, and the only way to know that it has matured is when we'll have a relatively stable price for many years. But the current prediction on the site predicts another bubble in 2020-2022, which makes sense, because of the next halvening, but also it seems like they are just extrapolating the patterns of the two recent bubbles, and who knows, maybe the pattern will change, especially if too many people are relying on it, maybe the bull run will start long before the halvening and will end shortly after it.

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August 26, 2018, 04:33:33 AM
 #20

and who knows, maybe the pattern will change, especially if too many people are relying on it, maybe the bull run will start long before the halvening and will end shortly after it.

if too many people start believing in something it can happen. so if people start thinking the next bubble would be in 2020 by the time of halving then it may actually happen only then.
but i don't think that is the case. maybe right now many are believing it that way but as we move forward and get past the ETF slump we may start seeing a very different market and with it a very different market sentiment.

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