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Author Topic: Markets not reacting to loss of 100s of Millions of $ is disturbing  (Read 5340 times)
kkaspar
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March 01, 2014, 01:15:41 PM
 #41

Markets not reacting to gox bankruptcy and loss of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of customer money is not just disturbing but confirms my earlier statements about market manipulation.

People here shrug gox bankruptcy like its nothing, but it is very huge and a major dent in bitcoin public confidence. This event has also delayed any major wall street institution from getting involved until there is a major regulated and licensed US exchange running.

In a way I'm glad this is happening as it confirms my position, as I stated before we will see a major dip soon on or before March 16



Don't worry, the reaction will come. The downtrend line you have been seeing in the previous month is still the effect of losing demand that came with China. MtGox's bankruptcy effects will start gradually with the media and general public taking more and more negative stance towards bitcoin, and that will cause more serious investors to distance themselves. The cultist nature of the bitcoin community makes the market react slowly, because there are many people with strong emotional attachment to the commodity itself and that causes denial.
I think that actually the main thing holding up the price right now are miners, who are holding their coins because with this price, there is no ROI with their ASICs. People underestimate how much stable flow of 3600btc per 24h counts, whether it will go for sale or for holding. But when new investments aren't coming, then there is a critical point where miners will just start selling their coins/asics to cut their losses and move on. Bitcoin has to be in a constant rise. Stability won't be enough to keep the price from falling because most of the people involved expect a rise, not stability.

Just hope that people open new exchanges in new geographical locations with untouched markets. In my opinion, it's the only way to bring forward a new solid rise. Until then, the traders are just selling and buying with each other, while money is slowly dripping out of the market.
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March 01, 2014, 03:39:36 PM
 #42

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March 01, 2014, 04:22:16 PM
 #43

Opening post is complete FUD bullshit, it's there to put the price down even more.

Exchange is not in any way equal to Bitcoin ecosystem, so no wonder the popularity is affected because many coins are lost, but it won't last too long until we see full recovery and insane rise again.

Bitcoin is hell of a lot more than fucking Mt. Gox.


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March 01, 2014, 05:47:54 PM
 #44

Well, I've been telling people I know to buy BTC for a damned long time; friends, family, and coworkers.

I have since told everyone to sell everything, because we are going nowhere but down from here, until something good comes out of Gox. If that never happens? Then down to double digits.

Everyone thinking this is a good thing is 100% delusional.
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March 01, 2014, 05:49:32 PM
 #45

The pricing in of gox's failure began all the way back in May and June, when investors could not withdraw fiat, funds were seized by DHS, and there was the lawsuit with coinlab. At that point, investors probably assumed that all their fiat was missing and that gox was insolvent, since they couldn't withdraw, and the pricing in began. This caused a crash from $130 to $66, until offline investors decided that was a good price and led a recovery. Bitstamp rapidly grew in August with the orderbook growing exponentially every day, and during the breakout in October it was well known that Bitstamp was where true liquidity interchange in U.S.D. was occuring and that gox was no longer relevant. Gox became a joke. "emptygox". Gox probably put a nice damper on the entire rally, and we might have gone higher without it.

Just recently, gox led another crash. The drop from $800 began when users started having issues withdrawing bitcoin from gox. At the moment when gox announced their malleability issue and it became official that users could neither withdraw fiat nor btc, all hope in gox became lost. Gox was now truly insolvent, as you could not withdraw ANY funds. This became especially apparent once every other exchange had fixed their malleability issue, in one day, EXCEPT gox, who was at two weeks and counting.  The death spiral of prices on gox all the way to $88 was continually confirming everyone's suspicions - that kind of price action would not be happening unless something was seriously wrong. Nobody would sell their bitcoins at 15% of the real value of a bitcoin unless they were SURE gox was insolvent. So this action led a crash in prices all the way from $800 to $530 and below. When the website went down, prices crash all the way down to $400. That's a 50% loss from $800, on top of all the previous crashes gox had driven.

Prior to gox's recent bankruptcy announcement, it was about 90% certain to anyone with a brain that all of gox's customer funds had been lost, and this had already been getting priced in to the bitcoin price for nearly a year.  The bankruptcy announcement simply turned a 90% certainty into a 100% certainty. Big deal... Maybe it will cause a little dip, but not a huge crash like everyone is calling for - that already happened, multiple times.

+1
And that this story about gox is for the textbooks how prices are always smarter than one person (price = most efficient way to aggregate informations -> Hayek).

But informations can change quickly and so the price does.
+ because of panics, day traders and still not perfect information the price signal can be distorted, for sure.

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March 01, 2014, 05:49:59 PM
 #46

Well, I've been telling people I know to buy BTC for a damned long time; friends, family, and coworkers.

I have since told everyone to sell everything, because we are going nowhere but down from here, until something good comes out of Gox. If that never happens? Then down to double digits.

Everyone thinking this is a good thing is 100% delusional.

You are awfully much into "everything" and 100%.


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porcupine87
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March 01, 2014, 06:01:10 PM
 #47

Well, I've been telling people I know to buy BTC for a damned long time; friends, family, and coworkers.

I have since told everyone to sell everything, because we are going nowhere but down from here, until something good comes out of Gox. If that never happens? Then down to double digits.

Everyone thinking this is a good thing is 100% delusional.

But Gox is dead. This is already in the current price. And there are quite a few good news out there. One of them is the meda attention about Bitcoin and teaching people that fractional reserve can be a bad thing.
Just FYI: I bought a few new coins with additinal fiat (not money from formerly sold bitcoins).

"Morality, it could be argued, represents the way that people would like the world to work - whereas economics represents how it actually does work." Freakonomics
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March 01, 2014, 06:01:16 PM
 #48

Everyone thinking this is a good thing is 100% delusional.

Letting a bad company crash and burn is a good thing. This is not bailout coin. Just like in nature, the strong survive.

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March 01, 2014, 06:30:55 PM
 #49

Markets not reacting to gox bankruptcy and loss of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of customer money is not just disturbing but confirms my earlier statements about market manipulation.

People here shrug gox bankruptcy like its nothing, but it is very huge and a major dent in bitcoin public confidence. This event has also delayed any major wall street institution from getting involved until there is a major regulated and licensed US exchange running.

In a way I'm glad this is happening as it confirms my position, as I stated before we will see a major dip soon on or before March 16


Um, market is not reacting to hundreds of millions of dollars worth of lost BITCOIN - Bitcoins that either didn't exist, or will cease to exist for the forseeable future. That would indicate that the market is manipulared DOWNWARD, not UPWARD. And, in this case, the manipulator wouldn't be a malicious super-smart insider doing complex market analysis infront of a computer screen somewhere in China, but a mass of super-dumb news outlets that don't understand wtf is going on.

I seriously DO NOT GET why people are under the impression that somehow Bitcoin needs gox to exist. In my "bitcoining career" I have sent a grand total of 1 bank wire to gox, and a grand total of 0.06 BTC, and both of these were like a year + ago - unless you count my flipping on Bitcoinbuilder. My experience with all other exchanges has been much less shady and is just in general a lot less dubious, from day 1. So wtf did Gox ever contribute in the last 6 months? If people had just stopped using it when it started sucking months ago this wouldn't be happening. If it really needs to blow sky high just to finally get people to quit it, then so be it.

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March 01, 2014, 06:44:51 PM
 #50

Markets not reacting to gox bankruptcy and loss of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of customer money is not just disturbing but confirms my earlier statements about market manipulation.

People here shrug gox bankruptcy like its nothing, but it is very huge and a major dent in bitcoin public confidence. This event has also delayed any major wall street institution from getting involved until there is a major regulated and licensed US exchange running.

In a way I'm glad this is happening as it confirms my position, as I stated before we will see a major dip soon on or before March 16



Gox is irrelevant, Maybe back when they were the only bitcoin exchange it would have been a big deal if they collapsed but now people have their choice of at least 5 different exchanges that i know of (im sure there are more), Anyone with half a brain left gox last year.

You shouldn't store your Bitcoins in an exchange anyway, It's just.. dumb... Make a paper wallet with bitaddress.org and keep them in cold storage, or make a blockchain.info wallet and keep the aes.json backup somewhere encrypted and secure (flash drives).

The world of Bitcoin is not for the unintelligent non-tech savvy people that can barely find the start button on their windows machine, At least half a brain is required to do business in Bitcoin land.

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March 01, 2014, 07:23:20 PM
 #51

Markets not reacting to gox bankruptcy and loss of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of customer money is not just disturbing but confirms my earlier statements about market manipulation.

People here shrug gox bankruptcy like its nothing, but it is very huge and a major dent in bitcoin public confidence. This event has also delayed any major wall street institution from getting involved until there is a major regulated and licensed US exchange running.

In a way I'm glad this is happening as it confirms my position, as I stated before we will see a major dip soon on or before March 16


Um, market is not reacting to hundreds of millions of dollars worth of lost BITCOIN - Bitcoins that either didn't exist, or will cease to exist for the forseeable future. That would indicate that the market is manipulared DOWNWARD, not UPWARD. And, in this case, the manipulator wouldn't be a malicious super-smart insider doing complex market analysis infront of a computer screen somewhere in China, but a mass of super-dumb news outlets that don't understand wtf is going on.

I seriously DO NOT GET why people are under the impression that somehow Bitcoin needs gox to exist. In my "bitcoining career" I have sent a grand total of 1 bank wire to gox, and a grand total of 0.06 BTC, and both of these were like a year + ago - unless you count my flipping on Bitcoinbuilder. My experience with all other exchanges has been much less shady and is just in general a lot less dubious, from day 1. So wtf did Gox ever contribute in the last 6 months? If people had just stopped using it when it started sucking months ago this wouldn't be happening. If it really needs to blow sky high just to finally get people to quit it, then so be it.
They almost certainly exist, so this whole "oh 6% less bitcoins, bitcoin should go up by 1000% because there are 6% less" thing is absolute bullshit.

And the defense of bitcoin doesnt need Gox? No, of course it doesnt need Gox. It needs investor confidence. And the death of Gox just siphoned every drop of it out.
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March 01, 2014, 08:07:32 PM
 #52

Markets not reacting to gox bankruptcy and loss of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of customer money is not just disturbing but confirms my earlier statements about market manipulation.

People here shrug gox bankruptcy like its nothing, but it is very huge and a major dent in bitcoin public confidence. This event has also delayed any major wall street institution from getting involved until there is a major regulated and licensed US exchange running.

In a way I'm glad this is happening as it confirms my position, as I stated before we will see a major dip soon on or before March 16


Um, market is not reacting to hundreds of millions of dollars worth of lost BITCOIN - Bitcoins that either didn't exist, or will cease to exist for the forseeable future. That would indicate that the market is manipulared DOWNWARD, not UPWARD. And, in this case, the manipulator wouldn't be a malicious super-smart insider doing complex market analysis infront of a computer screen somewhere in China, but a mass of super-dumb news outlets that don't understand wtf is going on.

I seriously DO NOT GET why people are under the impression that somehow Bitcoin needs gox to exist. In my "bitcoining career" I have sent a grand total of 1 bank wire to gox, and a grand total of 0.06 BTC, and both of these were like a year + ago - unless you count my flipping on Bitcoinbuilder. My experience with all other exchanges has been much less shady and is just in general a lot less dubious, from day 1. So wtf did Gox ever contribute in the last 6 months? If people had just stopped using it when it started sucking months ago this wouldn't be happening. If it really needs to blow sky high just to finally get people to quit it, then so be it.
They almost certainly exist, so this whole "oh 6% less bitcoins, bitcoin should go up by 1000% because there are 6% less" thing is absolute bullshit.

And the defense of bitcoin doesnt need Gox? No, of course it doesnt need Gox. It needs investor confidence. And the death of Gox just siphoned every drop of it out.

We don't need stupid investors who can't tell the difference between bitcoin and gox. These type of people tend to buy high and sell low, creating a lot of volatility.

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March 01, 2014, 08:08:47 PM
 #53

Markets not reacting to gox bankruptcy and loss of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of customer money is not just disturbing but confirms my earlier statements about market manipulation.

People here shrug gox bankruptcy like its nothing, but it is very huge and a major dent in bitcoin public confidence. This event has also delayed any major wall street institution from getting involved until there is a major regulated and licensed US exchange running.

In a way I'm glad this is happening as it confirms my position, as I stated before we will see a major dip soon on or before March 16


Um, market is not reacting to hundreds of millions of dollars worth of lost BITCOIN - Bitcoins that either didn't exist, or will cease to exist for the forseeable future. That would indicate that the market is manipulared DOWNWARD, not UPWARD. And, in this case, the manipulator wouldn't be a malicious super-smart insider doing complex market analysis infront of a computer screen somewhere in China, but a mass of super-dumb news outlets that don't understand wtf is going on.

I seriously DO NOT GET why people are under the impression that somehow Bitcoin needs gox to exist. In my "bitcoining career" I have sent a grand total of 1 bank wire to gox, and a grand total of 0.06 BTC, and both of these were like a year + ago - unless you count my flipping on Bitcoinbuilder. My experience with all other exchanges has been much less shady and is just in general a lot less dubious, from day 1. So wtf did Gox ever contribute in the last 6 months? If people had just stopped using it when it started sucking months ago this wouldn't be happening. If it really needs to blow sky high just to finally get people to quit it, then so be it.
They almost certainly exist, so this whole "oh 6% less bitcoins, bitcoin should go up by 1000% because there are 6% less" thing is absolute bullshit.

And the defense of bitcoin doesnt need Gox? No, of course it doesnt need Gox. It needs investor confidence. And the death of Gox just siphoned every drop of it out.

Gox gave investors plenty of reasons to stay away. All you needed to do was pay attention. I stopped using them right after their problems with heavy volume last year and the chaos it caused for the markets. It's terrible that it took this much to get people to quit using there exchange.

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March 01, 2014, 08:17:33 PM
 #54

"Markets not reacting to loss of 100s of Millions of $ is disturbing"

"is disturbing" = "I'm disturbed because I sold/shorted and expected it to go lower. Now I'm trapped."
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March 01, 2014, 08:38:18 PM
 #55

In a way I can understand OP's point of view, for example if a major investment bank like Goldman sachs tanks tmrw it would have a catastrophic affect on the stock markets and they wouldn't rebound within the same day.

However I think the main reason for this is that gox has been losing market share in the past 3 months, and you have a large number of holders this time holding $800+ bitcoins refusing to sell. And also miners are refusing to sell at current prices as it is almost a loss to sell right now.  These factors along with bitcoin's strong fundamentals are keeping prices above $500

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March 01, 2014, 08:59:45 PM
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You have to consider this from the point of view of bitcoin's newer investors, the big shots, who are throwing in a ton of fresh fiat at the $500-$1000 level. They're looking at bitcoin from a standpoint of the future, and the potential of bitcoin to become global currency. They are not looking at the past or the present and don't care about the drama unfolding in this feeble present exchange system. They're only investing because bitcoin is such a game changing technology that it is resilient, will work through this, and will still become a world dominating technology. They know that once the big boys enter, big U.S. exchanges are set up, merchant adoption really takes off, and wall street investors come in, all of this will be ancient history - a joke. They might be looking gox charts, gox volatility, and gox gross incompetence and mismanagement over years and think 'good riddance'. In fact all of these exchanges are a joke for them - they're all unregulated and mysterious. For example, I went to prepare my taxes and I cannot even find any kind of tax documents on any exchange I use. These exchanges are like.. bitcoin is still in kindergarten. New investors are just waiting... for the moment all of this, this legacy system, goes away and bitcoin gets serious with a real infrastructure. Any time they can buy and get in before the revolution is a great price. Any time they are not in a risk that tomorrow some new U.S. company makes an announcement and prices skyrocket.
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March 01, 2014, 09:48:05 PM
 #57

In a way I can understand OP's point of view, for example if a major investment bank like Goldman sachs tanks tmrw it would have a catastrophic affect on the stock markets and they wouldn't rebound within the same day.

The difference is between companies that have a slow and steady meltdown like Enron and MtGox, and companies which are seemingly OK like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers but catastrophically fail.

The market prices in meltdowns as everyone sees it happening. It is the catastrophic failures which catch the market by surprise, except for insiders who have sold much earlier.

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March 01, 2014, 10:29:53 PM
 #58

I also find it funny how ppl just say well too bad the gox clients will just have to buy their coins again at the current price. Um no, they won't fucking rebuy the coins no one will fucking rebuy coins, especially at the current rates.

This is like someone losing a ton of gold at a bank and then he's like oh OK NP let me just go buy another fucking ton , no it doesn't work that way cuz that person is depleted of money plus won't have the confidence for sometime to rebuy.

I'm just one datapoint, but that is exactly what I did in 2012 when I lost nearly all of my coins in Bitcoinica. I balked at the price (around 10 USD) and I did not buy as many as I lost but re-buy I did. (Of course, I avoid counter party risk like the plague now and keep everything in offline cold storage).

The reason I lost is because I misplaced trust in people, not because of a failure of the technology behind Bitcoin.

If you get scammed on the internet you also don't stop using it. You don't give up, you wise up.
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March 01, 2014, 10:33:42 PM
 #59

If it turns out that the "lost" 800 kBTC still exist and can be spent by someone, that will definitely push the prices down.
The lost 800 kBTC don't exist. Mt Gox doesn't have them. 800,000 Bitcoins that people thought were held at Mt Gox we now know did not actually exist. The only Bitcoins that do exist were already in circulation, already pushing the price down.

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March 01, 2014, 10:33:57 PM
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I also find it funny how ppl just say well too bad the gox clients will just have to buy their coins again at the current price. Um no, they won't fucking rebuy the coins no one will fucking rebuy coins, especially at the current rates.

This is like someone losing a ton of gold at a bank and then he's like oh OK NP let me just go buy another fucking ton , no it doesn't work that way cuz that person is depleted of money plus won't have the confidence for sometime to rebuy.

I'm just one datapoint, but that is exactly what I did in 2012 when I lost nearly all of my coins in Bitcoinica. I balked at the price (around 10 USD) and I did not buy as many as I lost but re-buy I did. (Of course, I avoid counter party risk like the plague now and keep everything in offline cold storage).

The reason I lost is because I misplaced trust in people, not because of a failure of the technology behind Bitcoin.

If you get scammed on the internet you also don't stop using it. You don't give up, you wise up.

You are a rare minority. And while it payed off for you this time, it doesnt always.
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