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Author Topic: over $3! almost 50% gain in 72 hours!  (Read 6945 times)
El Cabron (OP)
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October 22, 2011, 02:50:48 PM
 #1

So, how long until the next 50% up?   Smiley

Sorry El Cabron, you are banned from posting or sending personal messages on this forum.
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=622250.msg7030081#msg7030081
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October 22, 2011, 02:53:14 PM
 #2

buy, buy, buy!!11111

No srsly there is correction from this rally coming up and who knows what it's gonna do from there....
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October 22, 2011, 02:54:36 PM
 #3

I am now regretting that I did not but at $2 plus, but the funding is so complicated that I gave up Sad .  But the uptrend looks great, not many walls for bitcoin to surmount.
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October 22, 2011, 03:48:47 PM
 #4

Yeah, but... it's still at $3  Undecided

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October 22, 2011, 03:53:42 PM
 #5

I am now regretting that I did not but at $2 plus, but the funding is so complicated that I gave up Sad .  But the uptrend looks great, not many walls for bitcoin to surmount.

Once it starts to stagnate people who have been buying on the way down and are gonna dump and fuel an even harsher crash.  Down below 2 this time.  Rinse and repeat a few times. 

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October 22, 2011, 03:57:42 PM
 #6


Once it starts to stagnate people who have been buying on the way down and are gonna dump and fuel an even harsher crash.  Down below 2 this time.  Rinse and repeat a few times. 

You are forgetting that it's getting quite easy at that rate to buy up everything that's offered.

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October 22, 2011, 04:00:29 PM
 #7


Once it starts to stagnate people who have been buying on the way down and are gonna dump and fuel an even harsher crash.  Down below 2 this time.  Rinse and repeat a few times.  

You are forgetting that it's getting quite easy at that rate to buy up everything that's offered.
If you want some relevant part of the pie you"ll still need 4-5 figures in USD I wouldn't call that easy. And that doesn't even give serious influence on the market, just to play the game as it is being played now.
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October 22, 2011, 04:02:21 PM
 #8

No srsly there is correction from this rally coming up and who knows what it's gonna do from there....

Normally yes, there would be a correction to a rally.  But in this case the rally itself is arguably nothing more than a correction to the downward trend we've experienced over the last 3 months.  I wouldn't care to guess where the price will go from here.
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October 22, 2011, 04:03:14 PM
 #9

The $3 wall: the gift that keeps on giving.  Every time it gets knocked down, it gets right back up!

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October 22, 2011, 04:03:48 PM
Merited by vapourminer (5), dragonvslinux (1)
 #10

We're not going to make it beyond $3.  Go ahead, watch.

Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
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October 22, 2011, 04:04:13 PM
 #11

No srsly there is correction from this rally coming up and who knows what it's gonna do from there....

Normally yes, there would be a correction to a rally.  But in this case the rally itself is arguably nothing more than a correction to the downward trend we've experienced over the last 3 months.  I wouldn't care to guess where the price will go from here.


Well the gap is a classical reversal pattern but suit yourself.
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October 22, 2011, 04:08:06 PM
 #12

We're not going to make it beyond $3.  Go ahead, watch.
proudhon, if you have abandoned Bitcoin, how come you show more activity than before? Also, what will you do if it does break 3$?

Not that I’m saying you are wrong. This situation reminds me exactly of what happened at 7$.
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October 22, 2011, 04:28:58 PM
 #13

Quote
proudhon, if you have abandoned Bitcoin, how come you show more activity than before?

Just hanging around for the thrilling conclusion.

Quote
Also, what will you do if it does break 3$?

I'll have been wrong.

Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
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October 22, 2011, 04:31:04 PM
 #14

Well, you were wrong.

3$ new support level now?
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October 22, 2011, 04:31:33 PM
 #15

I think $3 is near the top of the overall (apparently accelerating) downward trend right now...I don't anticipate it breaking this bigger trend to the upside, either.

Here's a (logarithmic) chart:

http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/2969/8monthdailychart.png
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October 22, 2011, 04:34:47 PM
 #16

I think $3 is near the top of the overall (apparently accelerating) downward trend right now...I don't anticipate it breaking this bigger trend to the upside, either.

Exactly.  So what if we poke up above $3 for a little bit.  I'm confident that a week from now we'll be below $3 consistent with the clear abandonment of bitcoin.

Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
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October 22, 2011, 04:37:03 PM
 #17

I think $3 is near the top of the overall (apparently accelerating) downward trend right now...I don't anticipate it breaking this bigger trend to the upside, either.

Exactly.  So what if we poke up above $3 for a little bit.  I'm confident that a week from now we'll be below $3 consistent with the clear abandonment of bitcoin.

I would love to make a side bet with you...

If he accepts a bet, and it's done it Bitcoin, it would be entirely ironic.

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October 22, 2011, 04:39:19 PM
 #18

Exactly.  So what if we poke up above $3 for a little bit.  I'm confident that a week from now we'll be below $3 consistent with the clear abandonment of bitcoin.

Judging from the future difficulty estimates, I'd say enough miners finally threw in the towel to bring demand in line with supply.  I think we'll probably see a slow and steady rise in price until the next difficulty reset.

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October 22, 2011, 04:50:27 PM
 #19

Exactly.  So what if we poke up above $3 for a little bit.  I'm confident that a week from now we'll be below $3 consistent with the clear abandonment of bitcoin.

Judging from the future difficulty estimates, I'd say enough miners finally threw in the towel to bring demand in line with supply.  I think we'll probably see a slow and steady rise in price until the next difficulty reset.

Supply from mining is always constant.  A falling price does not reduce new mining supply.
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October 22, 2011, 04:59:28 PM
 #20


If he accepts a bet, and it's done it Bitcoin, it would be entirely ironic.

YES, I did not think he would catch on however. BTW love your site.

Thanks!

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October 22, 2011, 05:02:37 PM
 #21

Exactly.  So what if we poke up above $3 for a little bit.  I'm confident that a week from now we'll be below $3 consistent with the clear abandonment of bitcoin.

Judging from the future difficulty estimates, I'd say enough miners finally threw in the towel to bring demand in line with supply.  I think we'll probably see a slow and steady rise in price until the next difficulty reset.

supply is always the same no matter how many miner there are. their is always 7200BTC generated pre day .

i think we are seeing higher prices because, we just saw big investors cash out to cut their losses, everyone that lost faith in BTC cashed out.

the 10$ wall vanished, poeple panic sell
the 8$ wall vanished, poeple panic sell
the 5$ wall vanished, poeple panic sell
at 3$ that was it bitcoin was "dead" and everyone Sold, who bought up all these coins? the fans!

fans that wont sell

so b4 we had investors holding most of the coins
now we have many many bitcoin fans holding the coins.

i think we might just see 10$ again and SOON. with very little resistance on the way up.

after all btc is worth.... wtv the majority feels it worth.



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October 22, 2011, 05:07:12 PM
 #22

4750 coins where mined in the last 24 hours btw...

95 times 50


hmmm but isn't true that the same number of coins are generated no matter what the difficulty is... isn't that what they mean by "predictable supply"?

Edit: to answer my own question:
Quote
The number of bitcoins does vary somewhat, but the entire point of the changing difficulty is to keep the average new currency creation rate to 7200 per day until January of 2013.

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October 22, 2011, 05:14:15 PM
 #23

Umm.. if all the worlds power went out then no coins would be mined in a day... If every GPU/CPU and calculator in the world was set to mine bitcoins then it would be waaaaaay over 7200 in a day.

yes, very true but the next day the difficulty will go 100X higher, and then we are back to < 7200.

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October 22, 2011, 05:16:44 PM
 #24

We're not going to make it beyond $3.  Go ahead, watch.

Fail.
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October 22, 2011, 05:19:00 PM
 #25

We're not going to make it beyond $3.  Go ahead, watch.

Fail.

Who cares for $3. The question is: Are the walls at 3.50 and 3.65 for real? We can get over 4 this weekend. Give the Bears a good squeeze.

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October 22, 2011, 05:22:39 PM
 #26

We're not going to make it beyond $3.  Go ahead, watch.

Fail.

Who cares for $3. The question is: Are the walls at 3.50 and 3.65 for real? We can get over 4 this weekend. Give the Bears a good squeeze.

i hope they are real, that means lots of cheep bitcoin!
but that's wishful thinking..

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October 22, 2011, 05:28:02 PM
 #27

Umm.. if all the worlds power went out then no coins would be mined in a day... If every GPU/CPU and calculator in the world was set to mine bitcoins then it would be waaaaaay over 7200 in a day.

yes, very true but the next day the difficulty will go 100X higher, and then we are back to < 7200.


no, if the power went out, and no one mined, the dif would not change at all... I am just saying it is not always 7200 in a day. Just look at the last 24 hours to prove that. I am not getting into the side argument about whatever it is. All I am just saying is that 7200 every day no matter what is not true...

yes i understand it can fluctuate because difficulty adjustments don't happen right away...

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October 22, 2011, 06:16:22 PM
 #28

Ooh, netrin correctly predicted the 4th wave.  Then comes the final wave down before the big rally.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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October 22, 2011, 06:35:58 PM
 #29

Supply from mining is always constant.

Wrong.  A drastic reduction in hashing power on the network causes significantly less blocks to be found until the difficulty is reset.  The next difficulty reset is currently expected to happen on November 1st.  Dot-bit.org currently says the last 10 blocks were found at 75% of the normal rate.  Thus at the current pace, bitcoins are being added to the market at about 3/4 of the normal mining supply.


supply is always the same no matter how many miner there are. their is always 7200BTC generated pre day .

Wrong.  See above.


I suggest you search for information from sources other than the Bitcoin forum.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

+1

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October 22, 2011, 06:42:10 PM
 #30


 I wouldn't care to guess where the price will go from here.


I like your turn of phrase, Sir.

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October 22, 2011, 06:43:27 PM
 #31

We're not going to make it beyond $3.  Go ahead, watch.
proudhon, if you have abandoned Bitcoin, how come you show more activity than before? Also, what will you do if it does break 3$?

Not that I’m saying you are wrong. This situation reminds me exactly of what happened at 7$.

Why is proudhon on the forum if all he talks about is how Bitcoin will fail?

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October 22, 2011, 06:47:00 PM
 #32

Why is proudhon on the forum if all he talks about is how Bitcoin will fail?

You either talk about Bitcoin because

i) you love it,
ii) you hate it and someone brought it to your corner of the web
iii) you love it want to buy it cheaper.

People who are negative about bitcoin don't talk about it unless someone else brings it up. They certainly don't stalk Bitcoin forums!

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October 22, 2011, 06:57:51 PM
 #33

iv) someone pays you to talk shit

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October 23, 2011, 02:49:38 AM
 #34

Just watch.  Next 24 hours will be dominated by selling. 

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October 23, 2011, 03:36:01 AM
 #35

Just watch.  Next 24 hours will be dominated by selling. 

Hope so.  I got short on funds and decided I still have a taste for BTC on Friday, but Tradehill went from taking less than 6 hours to more than one day to deposit wires.   (I hope they don't decide to simply pocket the funds, but it's a chance one has to take in this game.)  Anyway, I'm in for another chunk if it goes below $2 (I suspect), so I would be delighted to see one more significant down-leg.

sig spam anywhere and self-moderated threads on the pol&soc board are for losers.
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October 23, 2011, 04:36:08 AM
 #36

Why is proudhon on the forum if all he talks about is how Bitcoin will fail?

You either talk about Bitcoin because

i) you love it,
ii) you hate it and someone brought it to your corner of the web
iii) you love it want to buy it cheaper.

People who are negative about bitcoin don't talk about it unless someone else brings it up. They certainly don't stalk Bitcoin forums!

Both wrong. I can's speak for proudhon, but some of us talk shit about bitcoin because 1) It is entertaining to watch the bull insanity link arms in the face of reason, and 2) to be the face of reason for the few that will bother to listen.


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October 23, 2011, 09:23:57 AM
 #37

Both wrong. I can's speak for proudhon, but some of us talk shit about bitcoin because 1) It is entertaining to watch the bull insanity link arms in the face of reason, and 2) to be the face of reason for the few that will bother to listen.

So you are in Bitcoin and in particular on the speculation board because you only try to get others see the light, after their vision has been darkened by the evil forces of Bitcoin. Even though there is nothing here for you. My admiration, reverend.  Roll Eyes

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October 23, 2011, 09:49:58 AM
 #38

Both wrong. I can's speak for proudhon, but some of us talk shit about bitcoin because 1) It is entertaining to watch the bull insanity link arms in the face of reason, and 2) to be the face of reason for the few that will bother to listen.

So you are in Bitcoin and in particular on the speculation board because you only try to get others see the light, after their vision has been darkened by the evil forces of Bitcoin. Even though there is nothing here for you. My admiration, reverend.  Roll Eyes

I forgot the most important one: 3) Profit off of those who don't bother to listen. Smiley

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October 23, 2011, 09:54:55 AM
 #39


I forgot the most important one: 3) Profit off of those who don't bother to listen. Smiley

Good luck! Being short wasn't the best strategy in the last few days, was it? Get ready for the squeeze. Grin

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October 23, 2011, 11:31:28 AM
 #40


I forgot the most important one: 3) Profit off of those who don't bother to listen. Smiley

Good luck! Being short wasn't the best strategy in the last few days, was it? Get ready for the squeeze. Grin

Sorry, made my money on the bottom! Smiley Go bug the unlucky.

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October 23, 2011, 02:41:06 PM
 #41

We're not going to make it beyond $3.  Go ahead, watch.
proudhon, if you have abandoned Bitcoin, how come you show more activity than before? Also, what will you do if it does break 3$?

Not that I’m saying you are wrong. This situation reminds me exactly of what happened at 7$.

Why is proudhon on the forum if all he talks about is how Bitcoin will fail?

thats too good of a question for him to answer.
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October 23, 2011, 04:16:45 PM
 #42

So how's that trend busting upward rally going?...oh, it's not...  Overall decline continues.

If anyone is curious about which way bitcoin prices are probably going, look here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49389.msg588294#msg588294
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October 23, 2011, 09:46:23 PM
 #43

I would say it's quite likely to go below $2 before it goes above $4.50.
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October 23, 2011, 10:07:01 PM
 #44

I would say it's quite likely to go below $2 before it goes above $4.50.

Now that ↑ is a nonsense . And I won't elaborate further .


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October 23, 2011, 10:13:12 PM
Merited by LoyceV (1), dragonvslinux (1)
 #45

I would say it's quite likely to go below $2 before it goes above $4.50.

+1

I'm confident we won't go above $5 for the rest of 2011 and I'm even more sure the price will never reach the all time high again.

Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
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October 23, 2011, 10:16:12 PM
 #46

I would say it's quite likely to go below $2 before it goes above $4.50.

+1

I'm confident we won't go above $5 for the rest of 2011 and I'm even more sure the price will never reach the all time high again.

yeah but you were also confident it'd never break $3 again.... Roll Eyes

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October 23, 2011, 10:18:37 PM
 #47

 Huh

Why aren't you guys selling your psychic powers to the CIA or Wallstreet?
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October 23, 2011, 10:21:40 PM
 #48

I would say it's quite likely to go below $2 before it goes above $4.50.

+1

I'm confident we won't go above $5 for the rest of 2011 and I'm even more sure the price will never reach the all time high again.

yeah but you were also confident it'd never break $3 again.... Roll Eyes

It's not going to stay here.

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October 23, 2011, 10:25:03 PM
 #49

I would say it's quite likely to go below $2 before it goes above $4.50.

+1

I'm confident we won't go above $5 for the rest of 2011 and I'm even more sure the price will never reach the all time high again.

Indeed it will surpass those levels and perhaps after that we can finally see you stop posting here.

Your rant of the same nonsense over and over again, is quite frankly becoming really annoying.
How about you learn some self-control before you press the damn reply button please?
I wouldn't say a word if at the very least your posts would carry something constructive, sadly I'd be expecting far, far too much from you in that area eh.


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October 23, 2011, 10:26:10 PM
 #50

So you guys think we're at the start of a rally?

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October 23, 2011, 11:55:43 PM
 #51

So you guys think we're at the start of a rally?

Volume is down, stagnation ahead.  Inevitable decline to follow. 

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October 24, 2011, 03:53:27 AM
 #52

I would say it's quite likely to go below $2 before it goes above $4.50.

+1

I'm confident we won't go above $5 for the rest of 2011 and I'm even more sure the price will never reach the all time high again.

Willing to bet on this?

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October 24, 2011, 04:52:44 AM
 #53

I would say it's quite likely to go below $2 before it goes above $4.50.

+1

I'm confident we won't go above $5 for the rest of 2011 and I'm even more sure the price will never reach the all time high again.

Willing to bet on this?

I will match the bet if its in BTC!  If this guy does not take these bets he should just shut up... Put your money where your mouth is...

BTC 1000 <> USD 1000?

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October 24, 2011, 06:27:18 AM
 #54

I pay you $1000 if it goes to 2$ and you pay me 1000 bitcoins if it goes to $4.5 first?

Sorry goat - you don't want to bet with me, but with proudhon. But I think we'd need to rephrase proudhon's proposal slightly. The way he stated it, we cannot lose. So I propose: If bitcoin does not exceed $20 'till Dec 31, 2013 he wins $1000. If it does, we win BTC1000

But I guess he doesn't have the balls.

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October 24, 2011, 11:41:47 AM
 #55

What is with you guys and betting, can he not have an opinion?

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October 24, 2011, 12:10:34 PM
 #56

What is with you guys and betting, can he not have an opinion?
Sure. Can we not propose a bet?

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October 24, 2011, 12:12:25 PM
 #57

I pay you $1000 if it goes to 2$ and you pay me 1000 bitcoins if it goes to $4.5 first?

Sorry goat - you don't want to bet with me, but with proudhon. But I think we'd need to rephrase proudhon's proposal slightly. The way he stated it, we cannot lose. So I propose: If bitcoin does not exceed $20 'till Dec 31, 2013 he wins $1000. If it does, we win BTC1000

But I guess he doesn't have the balls.

So if I win I can at most purchase $1000 worth of stuff and if you win you can purchase at least $20,000 worth of stuff.

Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
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October 24, 2011, 12:24:06 PM
 #58

So if I win I can at most purchase $1000 worth of stuff and if you win you can purchase at least $20,000 worth of stuff.

Since you'd have to calculate the current price of Bitcoin I think that is essentially fair. But i give you that the current exchange rate is not 1:1. So we'd have to adjust that. But yes, If we win, we got $6700 in purchasing power (if we do 1:3)

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October 25, 2011, 06:08:15 AM
 #59

Sounds fair and rational to me.   Roll Eyes

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October 25, 2011, 04:11:49 PM
 #60

Sounds fair and rational to me.   Roll Eyes

sounds to me as if both of you have TO FUCKING MUCH MONEY and should consider donating something to me..^^
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December 12, 2011, 05:59:20 AM
 #61

Quote
proudhon, if you have abandoned Bitcoin, how come you show more activity than before?

Just hanging around for the thrilling conclusion.

Quote
Also, what will you do if it does break 3$?

I'll have been wrong.

Well, you were wrong.

3$ new support level now?

Wrong again, proudhon. Sad
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December 12, 2011, 12:22:53 PM
 #62

4$ it's a strong resistance, but with enough volume activity is possible to go through, you guys should look also volume activity and not only price action. Considering that tick data is free in this market (compared to other markets where you have to pay) it is valuable to do a proper uptick/downtick volume analysis, especially the cumulation of the volume on upticks minus volume on downticks.

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December 22, 2011, 02:15:05 AM
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It does not seem to be able to break $4 for long.  Hopefully it wont slide back to the $2 range.
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December 22, 2011, 02:24:04 AM
 #64

It does not seem to be able to break $4 for long.  Hopefully it wont slide back to the $2 range.

Lots of people are piling on the asks right now.  I think there's a good chance we'll slide down.  To $2?  Probably not.  I could see the price dipping into the 2s though.

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December 22, 2011, 03:41:11 AM
 #65

Thats funny I noticed that the huge 15k askwall at $4 is much smaller so I feel the exact opposite as you.

Wishing for the price to drop won't make it so! You sure are one determined bear.
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December 22, 2011, 07:43:37 AM
 #66

Thats funny I noticed that the huge 15k askwall at $4 is much smaller so I feel the exact opposite as you.

Wishing for the price to drop won't make it so! You sure are one determined bear.

Has nothing to do with what anyone "wishes". 

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December 24, 2011, 08:44:47 AM
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Lots of people are piling on the asks right now.  I think there's a good chance we'll slide down.  To $2?  Probably not.  I could see the price dipping into the 2s though.

Excellent, let them sell cheap now and buy high later. Escapes me how you guys can sell a commodity that has a max of $4 to fall, but on the other side a fantastic amount to gain.

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December 24, 2011, 09:49:47 AM
 #68


Lots of people are piling on the asks right now.  I think there's a good chance we'll slide down.  To $2?  Probably not.  I could see the price dipping into the 2s though.

Excellent, let them sell cheap now and buy high later. Escapes me how you guys can sell a commodity that has a max of $4 to fall, but on the other side a fantastic amount to gain.

Why not sell $4? To a speculator, price is only a relative term. Sell higher than you paid + fees. If you think the price will drop, then why not sell and buy more later.

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December 24, 2011, 11:03:18 AM
 #69

I feel that bitcoin seems to be consolidating near $4, waiting for an opportunity to break through it once and for all.  Will we see a $20 bitcoin?  For me I rather hold bitcoins than USD Smiley
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December 24, 2011, 01:22:32 PM
 #70

Why not sell $4? To a speculator, price is only a relative term. Sell higher than you paid + fees. If you think the price will drop, then why not sell and buy more later.

Why not? I don't know about you, but watching MtGoxLive all day does not seem to be worth my while. Contracting in the range of EUR 60-90 per hour and simply keeping the position until Bitcoin is THE currency seems a much better strategy to me. I trust that Bitcoin will yield >100% a year, the next 10 years. Without doing anything.

Daytrading with $5 Million may be different, but it seems to me that no one is doing that. There must be some trading with 100K, but most seem to trade with less than $1K. You guys are wasting your time.

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December 24, 2011, 04:53:25 PM
 #71

Why not sell $4? To a speculator, price is only a relative term. Sell higher than you paid + fees. If you think the price will drop, then why not sell and buy more later.

Why not? I don't know about you, but watching MtGoxLive all day does not seem to be worth my while. Contracting in the range of EUR 60-90 per hour and simply keeping the position until Bitcoin is THE currency seems a much better strategy to me. I trust that Bitcoin will yield >100% a year, the next 10 years. Without doing anything.

Daytrading with $5 Million may be different, but it seems to me that no one is doing that. There must be some trading with 100K, but most seem to trade with less than $1K. You guys are wasting your time.

I don't think I'm wasting my time. If I can double my holdings, then that is double the thousands when a BTC is worth $1000. I started with my first 60 mined BTC. I have since turned that into a fairly large holding with only a small cost from mining the first 60. When we saw very large amounts of volatility in previous months, I was nearly doubling my normal income. Then I decided that I wanted more BTC, not the dollars, so I double down any chance I get.
I trade with <$100k and >$1k.

At $4, a small change in price is a much larger percentage than the same change at $32. So, if anything, it would be more important to keep a close eye on the price at $4, then it was at $32. I'm not a fan of 50% loss. If I can avoid it, I will.

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December 25, 2011, 12:39:00 AM
 #72

Why not sell $4? To a speculator, price is only a relative term. Sell higher than you paid + fees. If you think the price will drop, then why not sell and buy more later.

Why not? I don't know about you, but watching MtGoxLive all day does not seem to be worth my while. Contracting in the range of EUR 60-90 per hour and simply keeping the position until Bitcoin is THE currency seems a much better strategy to me. I trust that Bitcoin will yield >100% a year, the next 10 years. Without doing anything.

Daytrading with $5 Million may be different, but it seems to me that no one is doing that. There must be some trading with 100K, but most seem to trade with less than $1K. You guys are wasting your time.

I don't think I'm wasting my time. If I can double my holdings, then that is double the thousands when a BTC is worth $1000. I started with my first 60 mined BTC. I have since turned that into a fairly large holding with only a small cost from mining the first 60. When we saw very large amounts of volatility in previous months, I was nearly doubling my normal income. Then I decided that I wanted more BTC, not the dollars, so I double down any chance I get.
I trade with <$100k and >$1k.

At $4, a small change in price is a much larger percentage than the same change at $32. So, if anything, it would be more important to keep a close eye on the price at $4, then it was at $32. I'm not a fan of 50% loss. If I can avoid it, I will.

Well, IF you can double your holdings, it will be double the thousands when BTC is worth a mere $10.

But, for me the downside to daytrading isn't having to watch MtGoxLive all day.  Its the upside risk of selling.

Selling high and buying low, as a strategy to double to your holdings, works well in a downtrend.  But in an uptrend, you're more likely to be forced to buy in higher.  You'll end up halving your holdings instead of doubling them.  And the higher it goes, so increases the value of what you lost.

During a strong pop, you won't be able to buy in where you sold.  And if you trade every time you get an itch, you'll lose the spread (which is worse than the fees).  If you're confident, then just hang on tight during an uptrend.

And remember, think logarithmically.  It was $2 to $4 with a stop at $3, because that was counter-trend.  But, if/when it breaks $5, it will go to $10 ($9/$9.5 more specifically) in the blink of an eye.  You'll be very lucky if you get the chance to buy at $4.50 or $6.

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December 25, 2011, 03:25:46 AM
 #73




Selling high and buying low, as a strategy to double to your holdings, works well in a downtrend.  But in an uptrend, you're more likely to be forced to buy in higher.  You'll end up halving your holdings instead of doubling them.  And the higher it goes, so increases the value of what you lost.


That's an important point. It's easy to increase bitcoin holdings on a downtrend.. But then the same would be achieved without daytrading if you sold in July and bought again in November.
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December 25, 2011, 03:50:11 AM
 #74


Selling high and buying low, as a strategy to double to your holdings, works well in a downtrend.  But in an uptrend, you're more likely to be forced to buy in higher.  You'll end up halving your holdings instead of doubling them.  And the higher it goes, so increases the value of what you lost.


That's an important point. It's easy to increase bitcoin holdings on a downtrend.. But then the same would be achieved without daytrading if you sold in July and bought again in November.

Well, if you had a crystal ball that told you to do that (or you were a very good trader), then you would have achieved gains much, much higher.

There's nothing easier than armchair trading.  It's pretty obvious in retrospect.

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December 25, 2011, 06:04:49 AM
 #75


Selling high and buying low, as a strategy to double to your holdings, works well in a downtrend.  But in an uptrend, you're more likely to be forced to buy in higher.  You'll end up halving your holdings instead of doubling them.  And the higher it goes, so increases the value of what you lost.


That's an important point. It's easy to increase bitcoin holdings on a downtrend.. But then the same would be achieved without daytrading if you sold in July and bought again in November.

Well, if you had a crystal ball that told you to do that (or you were a very good trader), then you would have achieved gains much, much higher.

There's nothing easier than armchair trading.  It's pretty obvious in retrospect.

Agreed! Plus there is much lower risk in doing it like that.
I sort of play a double game. I have large(er) bids out in the outskirts to catch the big swings, then I play with a smaller pile of BTC at short spreads to play the normal fluctuations. And, I know! Trading on noise can be futile, but so far, I've done pretty well. Even with the obvious "Price Enforcement".

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December 25, 2011, 08:37:33 AM
 #76

Agreed! Plus there is much lower risk in doing it like that.
I sort of play a double game. I have large(er) bids out in the outskirts to catch the big swings, then I play with a smaller pile of BTC at short spreads to play the normal fluctuations. And, I know! Trading on noise can be futile, but so far, I've done pretty well. Even with the obvious "Price Enforcement".

Managing the risk of your portfolio like that is smart, and requires good discipline.  It's about your appetite for risk.

Of course, low risk equals low rewards.  But high risk can equal high losses.  That's why I stay off bitcoinica, so I never get zhoutonged if I'm wrong.

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December 25, 2011, 12:12:20 PM
 #77

I use bitcoinica because it's the only place I can go long by laying down btc

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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December 25, 2011, 12:54:47 PM
 #78

I use bitcoinica because it's the only place I can go long by laying down btc

https://icbit.se/

Thanks.  I signed up when they first announced it but It had no functionality then.  I'll check it out.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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December 25, 2011, 12:59:18 PM
 #79

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Speed: ICBIT is developed with intraday trading in mind, so executing thousands of traders per hour is not a problem

Ok.... Now I'm worried Wink.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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