TA 101 with MatTheCat. Critical Turning Point Ahead?

[njcarlos]

Bitcoin could go of scales here. And it is likely because of Ukraine,

No.

[MatTheCat]

Bitcoin could go of scales here. And it is likely because of Ukraine,

No.

And why not?

I am not saying that it is definitely Ukraine, but that right there is a critical situation where a huge market may spring up for people who may think it as wise to hide their wealth in a form that they can still hold, deploy, or use within their own borders.

If you were a wealthy Ukrainian, wouldnt you be a tad worried that Putin might choose to march his forces right into Kiev and then turn around and take all your wealth from you?

[segeln]

*holds telescope to bad eye*

"I see no uptrend"

what about eye doctor?

[njcarlos]

And why not?

Because it just doesn't look like panic buying to me. Way too much coordinated movement of the order book. And this tension has been building for weeks, if not months, I see no reason why it would pop today.

[MatTheCat]

And why not?

Because it just doesn't look like panic buying to me. Way too much coordinated movement of the order book. And this tension has been building for weeks, if not months, I see no reason why it would pop today.

Cos Putin marched 6000 troops into a part of the Ukraine at the weekend?

[segeln]

Even with my n00b TA 101 skills, I can tell that segeln's TA is bullshit.
(Es tut mir sehr Leid, dass ich Dir das sagen müssen, aber es ist doch wahr!)

declaring an issue as "bullshit" without any Explanation is very convincing and impressive
Es tut mit sehr leid,dass ich Dir das sagen muss, aber es ist doch wahr![muss, nicht müssen]

[njcarlos]

This region has been dominated by Russian military/naval presence since ever, from my understanding. And the people knew very well Russia would be making such movements that's why they took such aggressive action against those in power in Kiev.

[MatTheCat]

This region has been dominated by Russian military/naval presence since ever, from my understanding. And the people knew very well Russia would be making such movements that's why they took such aggressive action against those in power in Kiev.

Well, now it has happened and that is a whole different ball game from merely 'thinking' or 'fearing' that it was going to happen.

[seleme]

Commodities definitely went up some 2-3% since Ukraine situation escalated. Oil, gold, silver, all went up, except natural gas that is Russian main money maker.

[sgbett]

*holds telescope to bad eye*

"I see no uptrend"

what about eye doctor?

No, really there is no uptrend /trollface

[Bitcoin BEAR]

#2 is not a bull flag, and definitely not a pennant. To be a bull flag, there needs to be an uptrend to continue. Since it's not a flag off the 1163 top, there is no uptrend preceding it

it`s a flag ,right
i see 2 uptrends. since october 2013 and even next to the flag

The tiny "uptrend" preceding the proposed "Bull flag" Is a counter trend rally. The trendlines were already broken and the time of the flag is nearly twice as long as that rise, so guess what? You're wrong!

[/img]


1.box =lateral movement since beginning 2014
2.box =bullish flag/pennant
3.box =since 2013 accelerated upwards trend(secondary trend)
4.box=High April 2013 as resistance, now strong support
5.box=upwards trend since 2011(primary trend)

#2 is not a bull flag, and definitely not a pennant. To be a bull flag, there needs to be an uptrend to continue. Since it's not a flag off the 1163 top, there is no uptrend preceding it

*holds telescope to bad eye*

"I see no uptrend"

Wrong!
Maybe if the flag was something like this

...your point would be valid. But since I already explained that it doesn't come off the 1163 top (Bolded  in my quote for high visibility) You are wrong.


Keep trying kids!

[sgbett]

all that chart to draw lines on, and you pick the tiny bit at the end

[MatTheCat]

Commodities definitely went up some 2-3% since Ukraine situation escalated. Oil, gold, silver, all went up, except natural gas that is Russian main money maker.

Gold and silver had thoroughly tested their bottoms and the reversal was coming anyhow. Sentiment in Bitcoin however, has been utterly stagnant, with still a lot of bearish fear around.

I am in same boat as you. Against all my common sense, I panic bought at $618, after thinking I had done good buying in $580s and selling at $604 upon total consumption of whale wall. Two seconds later it smashed down to $580 which stands as testament to general market sentiment before these massive buyers came along right out of the blue. I left my computer desk, as smug as a cheshire cat, came back a bit later and find my stop margin call had been triggered and I had cut my own throat by selling at $604.

We are probably going to regret this buy-in at some point......but if there is about to be another Bitcoin gold rush brought about by freaked out Ukrainians looking to store wealth in a means that can be cashed out anywhere in the world (including within their own borders) and not easily confiscated from them......then who the fuck knows what Bitcoin could do. The April 2013 bubble and crash was said to have occurred due to capital flight from Cyprus.

If these ramp ups were just whale manipulations, then they had better have damn deep pockets, otherwise the market is going to give them (and by association, us) a damn good kicking......35K BTC, traded right at the very upper extremities of the recent trend!

[seleme]

I have spent only half of my fiat but I still don't feel comfortable holding coins to be honest. I don't like the fact that price went up after being pushed by single entity, that doesn't look natural. But I had to buy some.

[segeln]

No, really there is no uptrend /trollface

Nice Story about Admiral Nelson

[MatTheCat]

I have spent only half of my fiat but I still don't feel comfortable holding coins to be honest. I don't like the fact that price went up after being pushed by single entity, that doesn't look natural. But I had to buy some.

You may not be so worried now!

Very significant resistance @ $650 taken out.

$660 as I type. Right now those $618 coins are looking a pretty good deal!

[oda.krell]

Mat, don't get back into the old paranoid habits. This is not, or at least not predominantly Ukraine news driving up the price. Doesn't matter how long the current upwards motion will last, but for now it's clear it has some power, right? The first bit was plain old buying pressure and confidence in the price level above 400, then above 500, and the remaining meters... well, they're pure old "I hope I don't miss the train" reactions of the market. Feedback loops. Circlejerk. Don't fall into the newbie trap of having to explain everything that happens in terms of world events. I'm not saying to ignore them, but whatever the events are, they need to fall on fertile ground, and by the looks of it, that's some mighty fertile ground right now. (went long earlier today, btw. took an unpleasant hit to my total btc, but nothing too bad.)

[MatTheCat]

Mat, don't get back into the old paranoid habits. This is not, or at least not predominantly Ukraine news driving up the price. Doesn't matter how long the current upwards motion will last, but for now it's clear it has some power, right? The first bit was plain old buying pressure and confidence in the price level above 400, then above 500, and the remaining meters... well, they're pure old "I hope I don't miss the train" reactions of the market. Feedback loops. Circlejerk. Don't fall into the newbie trap of having to explain everything that happens in terms of world events. I'm not saying to ignore them, but whatever the events are, they need to fall on fertile ground, and by the looks of it, that's some mighty fertile ground right now. (went long earlier today, btw. took an unpleasant hit to my total btc, but nothing too bad.)

Thanks for the kind of advice....

We are both agreed that the market was looking stagnant, weak, and set for another leg down to confirm a low volume higher low, right?

So where is this fucking mass of buying power coming from? Where are all these massive bidding walls coming from? This is tens of millions of USD buying right at upper extremities of a highly depressed market in amongst a shit-storm of very scary Bitcoin news. Bottoms do not normally play out like this!

Granted, it 'might' be some megawhales looking to trigger another parabolic surge into Bitcoin, but would you not agree, that this has timed perfectly with the very first eastern Europe business hours, on the first banking day of the week after Putin marched his soldiers into the Crimea region of Ukraine?

[seleme]

I have spent only half of my fiat but I still don't feel comfortable holding coins to be honest. I don't like the fact that price went up after being pushed by single entity, that doesn't look natural. But I had to buy some.

You may not be so worried now!

Very significant resistance @ $650 taken out.

$660 as I type. Right now those $618 coins are looking a pretty good deal!

Now I'm worried about fiat left 

Damn, Bitstamp and their slow order processing, I missed 50 BTC buy at 610.

[segeln]

The tiny "uptrend" preceding the proposed "Bull flag" Is a counter trend rally.

the tiny uptrend was more a joke,though you did`nt realize it

Maybe if the flag was something like this
...your point would be valid. But since I already explained that it doesn't come off the 1163 top (Bolded  in my quote for high visibility) You are wrong.

now you are wrong,because the flag does´nt necessarily come off directly from the 1163 top.