If someone buys Bitcoin today, they'll be lucky to see a 300%+ ROI.

[IamComrade]

i think we are seeing 2011 play out, maybe $100 by march end. Bitcoin is less attractive as an investment after gox demise

[1713863286]

1713863286

[1713863286]

1713863286

[coinpharmer]

i think we are seeing 2011 play out, maybe $100 by march end. Bitcoin is less attractive as an investment after gox demise

I dont think so, what we are seeing now is the pressure it takes to change the way we do things. We have used exchanges to trade our btc, soon we will trade btc in the client itself, I have read some interesting projects for decentralized exchanges and when we get there its practically game over for the nay sayers.

[threecats]

these previous 2 posts reflect in a nutshell the current market standoff: those who are looking backwards, and basing their estimations on the past, and those who are leaning forwards, basing their estimations on an assesment of the future.

[CoinRocka]

For the record, I just sold all of my Bitcoins. 

Given the viewpoint you expressed above, I'm surprised that you didn't sell your bitcoins in November to January for over $1000.  Why did you feel they were worth holding at a higher price a few months ago, and worth selling now at a lower price today?

I should have clarified.  I didn't sell all of my Bitcoins just now.  I've been gradually selling them on the way up, and sold the last large chunk in the last 48 hours.

I think most investors slowly divest as the price climbs.  This is a logical way to diversify. 

But what I wanted to know is why did you feel the "last large chunk" was worth holding at a higher price a few months ago, and worth selling now at a lower price today?

The top was not obvious until it was passed. I was hoping to see a return to the $800 level before I sold the remainder, but the Mt.Gox fiasco has motivated me to sell earlier.

So you're not long.  Figured as much.

[podyx]

bitcoin is gonna have an incredible network effect, so i highly doubt $100k+ isnt possible in less then 8 years

[cosmofly]

bitcoin is gonna have an incredible network effect, so i highly doubt $100k+ isnt possible in less then 8 years

Not really, think about it its not that great. Ripple much superior as a protocol

[johnyj]

yes you do make really valid points there, but again who though that bitcoin could go to $1000 in one year when buying at $10 ....

It took $6.8 billion to get from $10 to $500.  It would take $63 billion to get to $5000/Bitcoin.  A lot of people are counting on Wall St. and institutional investors to make that happen, but $63 billion is A LOT of money, even for Wall St. How likely is it that investors will come up with $63 billion to put into a speculative currency?

FED is still printing $75 billion per month and it will take only one month to reach that goal, there are already trillions of dollars printed since 2008 and they are all waiting to be invested

I just don't see any reason to change a money with limited supply for a money with unlimited supply. Do you urgently need those dollars to buy a yacht? 8000 coin is almost 1/2625 of the bitcoin money supply, but 6 million us dollar is almost nothing in USD monetary base, and it will continuously shrink due to exponentially increasing money supply of USD

As for alt-coins, none of them have the infrastructure (hash power) to withstand an attack or hard fork

[theta]

I buy on Coinbase and then use those Bitcoins to pay for my order.

Why would you do that?  
Doesn't it cost you more than buying outright with fiat?

[sgbett]

itt caputalation. now *I'm* calling the bottom

[raid_n]

I'll try to sum my viewpoints up a bit to not bore you people.

a) Bitcoin may potentially have less ROI than some other highly speculative investment but it is probably less risky than investing in some altcoin project (how will you know you picked the right ones out of the GIANT set of options). What I don't understand is that you invested in bitcoin and now that it is looking like it may actually be used on a large scale you switch to different projects.
If you are seeking these fantastic 25000% ROIs well then that move makes sense. But you are also taking huge risks because it is definitely not certain that these altcoins or different cryptos will definitely reach the scale that bitcoin has today.

b) Stop whining about what bitcoin as a protocol can't do.  This reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Homer designs a car.
The only people who state bitcoin as a protocol is dead are those that desperately want their newly invested altcoin with a billion new features to shine.
You know there isn't just one "internet protocol" that does it all. There is actually a protocol stack where each thing does something different.
Why should a crypto be a distributed exchange and this and that and defrag you old harddrives and serve as an instant messenger all at the same time?
This is the classical recipe for screwup

[edit] just to clarify, yes there is an internet protocol, it is part of a stack of protocols. what I was referring to was that you don't have a giant blob that "gives you internet"

[Cyberlight]

i think we are seeing 2011 play out, maybe $100 by march end. Bitcoin is less attractive as an investment after gox demise

Explain why ? You have no idea about real investors, they will use Bitcoin investment trusts or ETF's

What's the connection MtGox -> Bitcoin?

[rebel24]

Some major points you're overlooking-

1) New markets, China, India, arab countries. Are you aware of chinese capital controls? Are you aware of their real estate bubble (theyre about the equivalent to where we were in 2007-- except perhaps 50%+ more inflated). We are talking about a 10 TRILLION dollar bubble. Further, it was in 2 short months, and out of NOWHERE that China alone moved the price of bitcoin up about $10 billion worth of market cap. Now digital currency is on the radar for the masses, and there are hundreds of billions of dollars stockpiled there each year looking for new investments. The Chinese are LOOKING for the best investment they can- their stock market is rigged, their real estate bubble is in an immense bubble, and they're VERY restricted from sending money overseas (even wiring more than $500 from a Chinese bank account to a US account is an extreme pain in the ass and raises eyebrows).

Also, digital currency allows the chinese to invest money easily or transfer money overseas with much greater ease than anything before. Yeah the chinese government hates it, as does india, as will arab countries (all countries where money is leaving will hate bitcoin, while, in general, countries where money will come to (like the US), will like bitcoin (you can see the Fed reserve's actions of passively acknowledging bitcoin(they realize its good, they dont want to publicly support it due to retaliation (esp from China/India).



2) Also, bitcoin may not have the kind of exponential growth as before- but these alt currencies very much can. Coins like dogecoin, or other novel small market cap coins. Dogecoin currently is around 50m, but should really be around $500m based off bitcoins current price just by the size of its community and volume(and note it is not even traded on btc-e yet where 80%+ of bitcoin and litecoin volume comes from). Not to mention, the community rocks.
Indeed, bitcoin had a good run but these alt coins can SURPASS bitcoins growth rate in the past few years-- this is why even in this current short-term downtrend I don't dare sell my position, because it is my position and it can take off at any moment (just like it did in Oct-Nov 2013)

[QuantumMiner]

Some major points you're overlooking-

1) New markets, China, India, arab countries. Are you aware of chinese capital controls? Are you aware of their real estate bubble (theyre about the equivalent to where we were in 2007-- except perhaps 50%+ more inflated). We are talking about a 10 TRILLION dollar bubble. Further, it was in 2 short months, and out of NOWHERE that China alone moved the price of bitcoin up about $10 billion worth of market cap. Now digital currency is on the radar for the masses, and there are hundreds of billions of dollars stockpiled there each year looking for new investments. The Chinese are LOOKING for the best investment they can- their stock market is rigged, their real estate bubble is in an immense bubble, and they're VERY restricted from sending money overseas (even wiring more than $500 from a Chinese bank account to a US account is an extreme pain in the ass and raises eyebrows).

Also, digital currency allows the chinese to invest money easily or transfer money overseas with much greater ease than anything before. Yeah the chinese government hates it, as does india, as will arab countries (all countries where money is leaving will hate bitcoin, while, in general, countries where money will come to (like the US), will like bitcoin (you can see the Fed reserve's actions of passively acknowledging bitcoin(they realize its good, they dont want to publicly support it due to retaliation (esp from China/India).



2) Also, bitcoin may not have the kind of exponential growth as before- but these alt currencies very much can. Coins like dogecoin, or other novel small market cap coins. Dogecoin currently is around 50m, but should really be around $500m based off bitcoins current price just by the size of its community and volume(and note it is not even traded on btc-e yet where 80%+ of bitcoin and litecoin volume comes from). Not to mention, the community rocks.
Indeed, bitcoin had a good run but these alt coins can SURPASS bitcoins growth rate in the past few years-- this is why even in this current short-term downtrend I don't dare sell my position, because it is my position and it can take off at any moment (just like it did in Oct-Nov 2013)

Can you point me to any links (news etc.) related to the above?

[rebel24]

Some major points you're overlooking-

1) New markets, China, India, arab countries. Are you aware of chinese capital controls? Are you aware of their real estate bubble (theyre about the equivalent to where we were in 2007-- except perhaps 50%+ more inflated). We are talking about a 10 TRILLION dollar bubble. Further, it was in 2 short months, and out of NOWHERE that China alone moved the price of bitcoin up about $10 billion worth of market cap. Now digital currency is on the radar for the masses, and there are hundreds of billions of dollars stockpiled there each year looking for new investments. The Chinese are LOOKING for the best investment they can- their stock market is rigged, their real estate bubble is in an immense bubble, and they're VERY restricted from sending money overseas (even wiring more than $500 from a Chinese bank account to a US account is an extreme pain in the ass and raises eyebrows).

Also, digital currency allows the chinese to invest money easily or transfer money overseas with much greater ease than anything before. Yeah the chinese government hates it, as does india, as will arab countries (all countries where money is leaving will hate bitcoin, while, in general, countries where money will come to (like the US), will like bitcoin (you can see the Fed reserve's actions of passively acknowledging bitcoin(they realize its good, they dont want to publicly support it due to retaliation (esp from China/India).



2) Also, bitcoin may not have the kind of exponential growth as before- but these alt currencies very much can. Coins like dogecoin, or other novel small market cap coins. Dogecoin currently is around 50m, but should really be around $500m based off bitcoins current price just by the size of its community and volume(and note it is not even traded on btc-e yet where 80%+ of bitcoin and litecoin volume comes from). Not to mention, the community rocks.
Indeed, bitcoin had a good run but these alt coins can SURPASS bitcoins growth rate in the past few years-- this is why even in this current short-term downtrend I don't dare sell my position, because it is my position and it can take off at any moment (just like it did in Oct-Nov 2013)

Can you point me to any links (news etc.) related to the above?

related to what part? also try google, all the info is online

[chriswilmer]

For the record, I just sold all of my Bitcoins.  

I like posts like these... they usually get posted right at the start of the next of rally

EDIT: Typo.

[600watt]

For the record, I just sold all of my Bitcoins. 

I like posts like these... they are usually get posted right at the start of the next of rally

give it 2-3 years, and it will be an excellent read.

on the other hand: exit strategy is a hard one to accomplish. all those years of tension. it sure is great to be part of it. but as price rises all of a sudden some are multiple $ millionaires. the game changes. become independent for the rest of our life or risk it all on a virtual thing still in beta? once you reached that it must be a great feeling to step out of crazy ccmf ride to da moon in some way.
at what price would you get tempted ? $ 10k, 30 k ? 

[afbitcoins]

I was all out too, but now back in Never say never

[600watt]

I was all out too, but now back in Never say never

interesting. could you quantify a bit ?

[seriouscoin]

Yes sheeps listen to OP. He sold all his coins and suddenly decided to voice his "honest opinions"

We need FUD like this to buy in lower.

[windjc]

yes you do make really valid points there, but again who though that bitcoin could go to $1000 in one year when buying at $10 ....

It took $6.8 billion to get from $10 to $500.  It would take $63 billion to get to $5000/Bitcoin.  A lot of people are counting on Wall St. and institutional investors to make that happen, but $63 billion is A LOT of money, even for Wall St. How likely is it that investors will come up with $63 billion to put into a speculative currency?

Do you really believe it took $6.8 billion to get to $500? LOL. I find it hard to believe you believe this.