Here's my take on it:
The AUR airdrop on the 25th of March 2014 should effect the price as 10.5 million coins flood onto the market.
However will it be that simple? Will these coins get distributed correctly and enter exchanges immediately?
The actual distribution is said to be taking place through the Icelanders electronic id database, we are yet to know if this is feasible.
I think we can expect some of the AUR to enter exchanges through the tech savy Icelanders, and those sharp enough to pay their friends and family cash for AUR and then trade it through their online accounts. I would expect some speculators to go out on the streets and try and pick up AUR from those who aren’t in the know – although Iceland’s a small country with a no doubt tight knit population so perhaps we shouldn’t expect too much underhand dealing.
It all depends on the price at launch, this present bubble may implode well before then. I do believe in AUR’s long term future and value so perhaps many will hold onto it.
We should also expect that many will either not know about AUR or not be able to do anything about it even so, (think of the Icelandic Grandma’s who have no thought or care for trying to understand Crypto). Iceland’s also a fairly wealthy country so some citizens may not feel bothered if they think it’ll be an inconvenience to claim the coins.
As well as this the actual distribution may (and i think this has been mentioned by the devs), take a long time for all the coins to be distributed. I think I heard they will be doing the distribution in three phases spaced over a year, which could mean price spikes and crashes for the currency.
It’s anyones guess as to how it will shape up. I think the smart money is screaming sell AUR now! wait for the price to settle back down and for the airdrop to come and go, and then pick up bits and pieces along the way.
For one thing if Crypto Local Currencies are to do well, they may need slightly higher coin supply caps, for you want the currency to be handled within the territory as well as held by investors world wide.
from:
http://cointips.co/how-will-the-aurora-premine-airdrop-effect-the-price/
