[2018-08-22] Bitcoin Technical Sign Suggests Selloff May Be Almost Over

[vy99]

There's been a lot of FUD in the news lately but this shows there's more life in Bitcoin than people think:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-22/bitcoin-technical-sign-suggests-selloff-may-be-almost-over

[1Referee]

People keep focusing on technical analysis while there is one simple aspect mainly responsible for not settling below key support between the $5700-$5800 levels.

It's the pshycological importance of the round $100 billion market cap. Do the math 17.225 million BTC x ~$5800 = $100 billion.

I honestly don't think we've seen the worst, mainly because of the fact that all the worthless ETF speculation has given people enough hope to at least have more patience before tanking the market further. Without ETF speculation the market would probably look a whole lot different right now.

[darkangel11]

People keep focusing on technical analysis while there is one simple aspect mainly responsible for not settling below key support between the $5700-$5800 levels.

It's the pshycological importance of the round $100 billion market cap. Do the math 17.225 million BTC x ~$5800 = $100 billion.

I honestly don't think we've seen the worst, mainly because of the fact that all the worthless ETF speculation has given people enough hope to at least have more patience before tanking the market further. Without ETF speculation the market would probably look a whole lot different right now.

It could still go down since new coins are being mined every day, so the price could in a couple weeks be lower if those fresh coins don't find people willing to buy them at these prices. Just a thought, I'm bullish and think that we'll break 7k again in a couple months. A rally once every couple months is inevitable. We had one attempt in July, there should be another one in September.
I believe we have as many people waiting for $5k BTC as those holding and waiting for 10k to be back. That's why we've been trading sideways for a month, which is very rare.

[Slow death]

The only thing I see is that people are selling their altcoins to buy bitcoin because of the ETF of September 30th and if in case the ETF of September 30th is disapproved then we will have a very big bitcoin price drop and we will see the recovery of altcoins ... As there is no fresh money entering the world of crypto so the price is not increasing and my thinking is that the regulations are creating conditions so that the price of bitcoin does not rise much, that because the regulations they are creating fear in people, so reducing the demand for cryptos

[1Referee]

The only thing I see is that people are selling their altcoins to buy bitcoin because of the ETF of September 30th and if in case the ETF of September 30th is disapproved then we will have a very big bitcoin price drop and we will see the recovery of altcoins ...

Initially I thought so as well, but it's not looking like that anymore. People are genuinely dumping their altcoins because they are done with it. If Bitcoin tanks after another delay or rejection, the entire market will plummet with it. In other words, people will not convert back to altcoins. If that was their main intention, they would have done so already since everyone with common sense already knows that an ETF won't pass.

Another negative factor for altcoins and tokens (making it less likely to see an alt boost) is that Ethereum is going through a rough time. ICO's are genuinely looking to cash out, and then the biggest problem is Ethereum's crazy high inflation rate. Ether tokens are being printed like it's nothing, which slowly but surely devalues everyone's holdings (fiat 2.0). There by far isn't enough demand to buy up all these floating Ethers.

Vitalik quotes;

Ethereum is decentralized; rolling back the chain with minority agreement doesn't seem very decentralized.
Ethereum's blockchain will not exceed 1TB in the foreseeable future; it did.
Ether's circulating supply will not exceed 100 million; it did.

How long will people believe his nonsense? Selling pressure doesn't lie.

Arthur Hayes is right, it is a double digit shitcoin.

[Lucius]

People keep focusing on technical analysis while there is one simple aspect mainly responsible for not settling below key support between the $5700-$5800 levels.

It's the pshycological importance of the round $100 billion market cap. Do the math 17.225 million BTC x ~$5800 = $100 billion.

I honestly don't think we've seen the worst, mainly because of the fact that all the worthless ETF speculation has given people enough hope to at least have more patience before tanking the market further. Without ETF speculation the market would probably look a whole lot different right now.

I did not look at the price from that viewpoint, but if we look at the numbers, 100$ billion market cap can have a really great psychological value. But who is keeping BTC to not sink below 5800$, miners, whales or someone else? I do not know if miners have anything with this since they are still in profit even with price lower then 5800$.

ETFs speculation have some effect on total crypto market, and it will continue in the following months since Vaneck Solidx Bitcoin Trust is just delayed for September 30, and it will probably be postponed for December and then for next year. Also we should not forget Bakkt which should start in November.

Bakkt and probably new expectation of ETF approval in December should make some positive atmosphere in December, or maybe not?

[1Referee]

But who is keeping BTC to not sink below 5800$, miners, whales or someone else? I do not know if miners have anything with this since they are still in profit even with price lower then 5800$.

I don't think it's related to miners but more the larger players valuing some form of elitist ranking amongst crypto currencies. If Bitcoin falls below $100 billion it will become a double digit billion coin, just like Ethereum. I think that's one of the key aspects to this.

Bakkt and probably new expectation of ETF approval in December should make some positive atmosphere in December, or maybe not?

I'm always very conservative when it comes to the mainstream media hyping up certain developments, which applies to Bakkt as well. I must however admit that it looks good on paper, but we really need to see it in action first. In the crypto space everything looks good on paper.  

Regarding ETF's, I think it's really done and over for now. The SEC keeps rejecting ETF's for the exact same reason. Currently people are hyped up about the review the SEC granted to the rejected ETF's, which is quite pathetic honestly. Every party by default has the right to ask for a review, and in 99% of the cases they'll be granted one. Reviews can take years at worst. The Winklevoss ETF review took over a year, and that while the SEC already knew it wouldn't stand a chance.

[Lucius]

Regarding ETF's, I think it's really done and over for now. The SEC keeps rejecting ETF's for the exact same reason. Currently people are hyped up about the review the SEC granted to the rejected ETF's, which is quite pathetic honestly. Every party by default has the right to ask for a review, and in 99% of the cases they'll be granted one. Reviews can take years at worst. The Winklevoss ETF review took over a year, and that while the SEC already knew it wouldn't stand a chance.

SEC reject ETFs, that is true - but theirs process also includes a lot of delays which is not logical to me. If something is unacceptable on August 15, why should it be accepted on September 30, especially if the applicant is unable to make any changes?

I read about review, but somehow I do not think that's the reason for the current situation in the market. It is only 4 month left by the end of this year, maybe is time to bulls take control, or this is just one more attempt which will end with sudden drop in price to 6200$-6300$.

[1Referee]

SEC reject ETFs, that is true - but theirs process also includes a lot of delays which is not logical to me. If something is unacceptable on August 15, why should it be accepted on September 30, especially if the applicant is unable to make any changes?

It's a form of hypocrisy. As per Hester Peirce, which is an SEC commissioner, it is far easier and less problematic for the SEC to keep rejecting and delaying ETF's, even when they don't stand a chance to be approved after the delay (regardless of the changes made to the initial proposal).

Another aspect, which is my personal opinion, is that I strongly believe the SEC is testing how this market reacts whenever they reject or delay an ETF. It's like they are solely delaying ETF's for that purpose, because let's be honest, there is no valid reason to delay an ETF when it by default doesn't stand one single chance to be approved.

[AR_fan]

People keep focusing on technical analysis while there is one simple aspect mainly responsible for not settling below key support between the $5700-$5800 levels.

It's the pshycological importance of the round $100 billion market cap. Do the math 17.225 million BTC x ~$5800 = $100 billion.

I honestly don't think we've seen the worst, mainly because of the fact that all the worthless ETF speculation has given people enough hope to at least have more patience before tanking the market further. Without ETF speculation the market would probably look a whole lot different right now.

you're one of my favorite poster here, and yeah i hadnt noticed that

its like the top came when we were closing on $1 trillion for total crypto marketcap

[Lucius]

SEC reject ETFs, that is true - but theirs process also includes a lot of delays which is not logical to me. If something is unacceptable on August 15, why should it be accepted on September 30, especially if the applicant is unable to make any changes?

It's a form of hypocrisy. As per Hester Peirce, which is an SEC commissioner, it is far easier and less problematic for the SEC to keep rejecting and delaying ETF's, even when they don't stand a chance to be approved after the delay (regardless of the changes made to the initial proposal).

Another aspect, which is my personal opinion, is that I strongly believe the SEC is testing how this market reacts whenever they reject or delay an ETF. It's like they are solely delaying ETF's for that purpose, because let's be honest, there is no valid reason to delay an ETF when it by default doesn't stand one single chance to be approved.

There is some sense in it, but then obviously there are some other higher interests involved in all this. I doubt that SEC does something on his own regarding this refusals/postponements or reviews. Whoever is in this game for some time know that market is reacts on almost every news, the only question is how much the media engage in something and make great news of it.

For me is strange fact that only BTC ETFs are coming from USA, as if the rest of the world waiting for they approval to do something in this matter.

[timerland]

There's been a lot of FUD in the news lately but this shows there's more life in Bitcoin than people think:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-22/bitcoin-technical-sign-suggests-selloff-may-be-almost-over

There actually isn't that much FUD in the market at the moment. I don't know if it just me, but I certainly see less FUD right now compared to a few months back, when bitcoin peaked and started its gradual decline to around $6k, when people said absurd things about bitcoin ("bitcoin is dead" was one of the classics).

Right now, prices are actually staying pretty put, and even though ETFs are getting rejected, markets have matured to the point that they now understand that ETF rejection doesn't mean the end of the world and the market is no longer panic dumping when it comes to these decisions. That is probably the only FUD that is in the market right now.

Sell off is definitely nearing its end. We're already seeing buying pressure at $6-7k, and if prices do go lower, traders will most likely continue to accumulate leading to quick rebounds. Besides, historically, major bear markets have lasted 1-1.5 years on average, meaning that we'll most likely see a major recovery some time mid-to-late last year.