[2018-09-03] Tom Lee: Bitcoin to Hit $20k in 2018 Despite Struggle of Emerging M

[moriskarlov]

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, a Bitcoin permabull known for his optimistic price targets for the dominant cryptocurrency, has said that Bitcoin will likely end the year explosively higher possibly at $20,000.

In an interview with CNBC, Lee stated that over the past year, Bitcoin, which has failed to show a correlation with the broader financial market and traditional assets like gold, has demonstrated a similar mid-term price movement as emerging markets.

Specifically, Lee discussed emerging markets ETFs like iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF, which enables investors to allocate funds into a diverse portfolio of assets and stocks in developing markets and regions.

“Both really essentially peaked early this year, and they both have been in a downward trend. Until emerging markets begin to turn, I think in some ways that correlation is going to hold and tell us that sort of the risk on mentality is those buyers aren’t buying bitcoin,” said Lee.

Turn in Emerging Markets Will Lead Bitcoin to Rise?

Lee suggested that the strong performance of assets and ETFs based on emerging markets will likely lead to the increase in the price of Bitcoin, given the correlation between the two dating back to early 2017.

The conflict between the US and Turkey, Iran, China, and other countries could lead to a decline in the value of the US dollar, especially if the Federal Reserve slows its interest rate hike policy, and that could also contribute to an increase in the price of Bitcoin, Lee explained.

He added:

“So why do we think they’re connected? Well, there is two factors. The first is hedge funds — see hedge funds typically rent emerging market stocks. So they do risk-on, risk-off. So when they’re risk-off, Bitcoin also suffers because they are risk off. The second reason has to do with wealth effect. Wealth effect means that if you are living in an emerging market, and you see your stock market fall hugely, that you will have a lot less money to buy Bitcoin.”

Last week, CCN reported that Germany officially proposed the development of a global financial system outside of the control of the US, due to the intensifying conflict between the US and Iran.

Heiko Maas, German foreign minister serving in the fourth cabinet of Angela Merkel since March of this year, said:

“For that reason it’s essential that we strengthen European autonomy by establishing payment channels that are independent of the US, creating a European Monetary Fund and building up an independent Swift system.”

Kim Dotcom, a German-Finnish entrepreneur said that considering the announcement of Germany is the first call for an independent financial system in the European finance sector, if Germany pursues its agenda, the value of the US dollar will likely fall, leading to the rise in the price of Bitcoin.

See more - https://www.ccn.com/tom-lee-bitcoin-to-hit-20k-in-2018-despite-struggle-of-emerging-markets/

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[buwaytress]

Hey, we're all optimistic deep down here, but do we really want a 20k Bitcoin again so soon? Give me more time, you damn permabulls. And investing funds into emerging markets has existed long before ETFs, and neither did these investors ever need Bitcoin to facilitate that. Correlation is one thing, causation is really far-fetched.

I'm all warm and fuzzy for good news and positive predictions, but it's high time Mr Lee gets back to some basics and quit it with this ETF nonsense, and yes, focus a bit more on the type of calls Germany just made (on how hypocritical it actually is?).

[terrific]

Its if we will not see $20,000 for this year as soon as possible.
The fact that its more interesting that we will see bitcoin starts hitting a very safe ceiling.
ETF's aren't really the only solution to see the market to go for a bull run.

[alex_gr_cc]

We were told that ETF will not be accepted in the near future. Therefore, for the growth of the market, we need other reasons. Perhaps this will be another global financial crisis - a possible reason for the growth bitcoin.

[Betwrong]

We were told that ETF will not be accepted in the near future. Therefore, for the growth of the market, we need other reasons.

Who told you that? There will be new ETFs and the SEC will be obliged to examine them and to arrive at a decision. They can't just reject every application on the grounds of "concern about fraud and manipulation of bitcoin markets". Btw, the nearest upcoming consideration of another ETF by SEC will take place as early as Sept. 30. It is so called "VanEck ETF" which was initially filed in July by Bitwise, and the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust.  

Perhaps this will be another global financial crisis - a possible reason for the growth bitcoin.

Actually, no one needs a "growth" like this. If Bitcoin will be priced, say, at $50k but, at the same time, you will be able to buy with those $50k less than you can buy with $7k now, no one needs that.

[Samarkand]

... Perhaps this will be another global financial crisis - a possible reason for the growth bitcoin.

We can´t be sure how Bitcoin will perform during a financial crisis. After all Bitcoin
was founded after the last big financial crisis (remember the message in the Bitcoin
genesis block!).

It is entirely possible that a global financial crisis would actually lead to a decrease in the
Bitcoin price. In times of need people may start by liquidating their more speculative assets
first. I´d argue that most people still view Bitcoin as a speculative asset and therefore it is
likely that many will dump it when they desperately need fiat during a financial crisis (e.g.
after they got laid off). How many people, who just lost their job will be able to have the discipline
to hold onto their Bitcoins?

[Kprawn]

We were told that ETF will not be accepted in the near future. Therefore, for the growth of the market, we need other reasons.

Who told you that? There will be new ETFs and the SEC will be obliged to examine them and to arrive at a decision. They can't just reject every application on the grounds of "concern about fraud and manipulation of bitcoin markets". Btw, the nearest upcoming consideration of another ETF by SEC will take place as early as Sept. 30. It is so called "VanEck ETF" which was initially filed in July by Bitwise, and the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust.  

Perhaps this will be another global financial crisis - a possible reason for the growth bitcoin.

Actually, no one needs a "growth" like this. If Bitcoin will be priced, say, at $50k but, at the same time, you will be able to buy with those $50k less than you can buy with $7k now, no one needs that.

I disagree. The SEC streamlined their scripted "denial" response and they will keep on using it, until someone can find a way

to prove them wrong or to regulated the market price in such a way that it cannot be manipulated. The main question is, if

you can bundle specific regulated exchange market prices into one and isolate that market from the global market, so that

exchanges that are used for manipulation, does not effect that price. 

[Sutters Mill]

Yawn, another speculation article based on some random figure someone has pulled out their behind. Pointless even making these predictions.What's going to happen when bitcoin gets nowhere near that figure this year? Nothing.

Hey, we're all optimistic deep down here, but do we really want a 20k Bitcoin again so soon? Give me more time, you damn permabulls.

Does it really matter how fast it comes? I'd rather have 20k this year than have to wait five years for it. Just cash out if it hits 20k and buy back in if it drops. You can't really lose unless it keep going north, but I'm sure it'll come crashing back down at some point.

[darkangel11]

I'm really done with Tom Lee after seeing a compilation of his previous predictions from this year. For instance when we hit the first low of 14k this year he was saying that it's just a temporary setback, a correction that will soon resume and take us above the previous ATH. He was bullish back then and he was bullish at 10k USD and all the way to the bottom. Let's face it, Tom is a permabull.

[figmentofmyass]

Hey, we're all optimistic deep down here, but do we really want a 20k Bitcoin again so soon? Give me more time, you damn permabulls.

my thoughts exactly!

anyway, as someone who lived through that post-2013 bear market, what bulls really want want is for the bears to be confident and the permabulls to be quiet. that's the sentiment that bull markets are born from.

I'm really done with Tom Lee after seeing a compilation of his previous predictions from this year. For instance when we hit the first low of 14k this year he was saying that it's just a temporary setback, a correction that will soon resume and take us above the previous ATH. He was bullish back then and he was bullish at 10k USD and all the way to the bottom. Let's face it, Tom is a permabull.

tom lee is just a running joke among bitcoin traders at this point.

[bbc.reporter]

@figmentofmyass. I had the same opinion as yours when the market was in full bear power hehe. But if the bulls come back, I reckon Tom Lee's prediction still has a chance like it did last year when bitcoin went from $6000 or $7000 to $20,000 in 1 month.

[aso118]

@figmentofmyass. I had the same opinion as yours when the market was in full bear power hehe. But if the bulls come back, I reckon Tom Lee's prediction still has a chance like it did last year when bitcoin went from $6000 or $7000 to $20,000 in 1 month.

There is a chance, but it is highly, highly unlikely that we will again see $20k this year. There will be heavy resistance when the price crosses $10k. There are a lot of bagholders, who got in during the rally last year and are just waiting to sell. We will have to take out all that supply before the bull rally begins again.

[Betwrong]

~ The SEC streamlined their scripted "denial" response and they will keep on using it, until someone can find a way to prove them wrong

Well, who if not us? ) I'm sure they hire people to monitor this forum so maybe we can throw in a good solution for them.

~ The main question is, if you can bundle specific regulated exchange market prices into one and isolate that market from the global market, so that exchanges that are used for manipulation, does not effect that price. 

Idk, looks like one of the possible solutions to me. Not sure I know how to implement it though, but maybe it's worth thinking on. I think one of the conditions should be that the trading volume on the regulated exchanges was bigger than of those on the global market combined.

[Sutters Mill]

@figmentofmyass. I had the same opinion as yours when the market was in full bear power hehe. But if the bulls come back, I reckon Tom Lee's prediction still has a chance like it did last year when bitcoin went from $6000 or $7000 to $20,000 in 1 month.

There is a chance, but it is highly, highly unlikely that we will again see $20k this year. There will be heavy resistance when the price crosses $10k. There are a lot of bagholders, who got in during the rally last year and are just waiting to sell. We will have to take out all that supply before the bull rally begins again.

10K is always going to be a tough nut to crack afain, and then at least stay there. It has huge psychological significance, and a lot of people will cash out at that number which is then obviously hard to sustain. Same but even more so with 20k. A lot of people will expect the same thing to happen last time and it come crashing back down to earth very quickly so they'll cash out whilst they can and we will likely struggle to stay near 20k if it even gets there again at all. A slower growth over a much longer time will be much better for bitcoin in my opinion, so hopefully baby-steps until we get closer and closer to that milestone again.

[cryptofonia]

Tom Lee missed a point with Consensus 2018 correlation prediction...

[Slow death]

Already September and it's a few months to the end of the year, the price is currently at $ 7300, we only have a possibility of a price increase in the range of $ 10,000, I speak of a possible approval of ETF on September 30 , but see that even if an ETF were approved on September 30, I do not believe the price would reach $ 20,000. no chance to see $ 20,000 this year. I think Tom Lee needs to give his arm to cheer that his price forecast is very exaggerated and has no chance of becoming a reality this year

Tom Lee missed a point with Consensus 2018 correlation prediction...

A lot of analysts failed their price prediction for this year, just see that a lot of them do not show their faces on the bitcoin news channels.

[figmentofmyass]

@figmentofmyass. I had the same opinion as yours when the market was in full bear power hehe. But if the bulls come back, I reckon Tom Lee's prediction still has a chance like it did last year when bitcoin went from $6000 or $7000 to $20,000 in 1 month.

There is a chance, but it is highly, highly unlikely that we will again see $20k this year. There will be heavy resistance when the price crosses $10k. There are a lot of bagholders, who got in during the rally last year and are just waiting to sell. We will have to take out all that supply before the bull rally begins again.

agreed, lots of supply to work though. and even $10k is clearly a major resistance level. not just for psychological reasons, but because we have a long term price pivot there where lots of bulls got trapped. after that comes the $11.5k-12k area (where we double topped) and $14k-15k, both of which should be good areas to sell.

if we get to $14k+ i'm selling into it pretty hard. it's too early for a bubble; sentiment just doesn't feel right. i still foresee another leg down like the 2013 correction (if not worse).

[stomachgrowls]

@figmentofmyass. I had the same opinion as yours when the market was in full bear power hehe. But if the bulls come back, I reckon Tom Lee's prediction still has a chance like it did last year when bitcoin went from $6000 or $7000 to $20,000 in 1 month.

There is a chance, but it is highly, highly unlikely that we will again see $20k this year. There will be heavy resistance when the price crosses $10k. There are a lot of bagholders, who got in during the rally last year and are just waiting to sell. We will have to take out all that supply before the bull rally begins again.

agreed, lots of supply to work though. and even $10k is clearly a major resistance level. not just for psychological reasons, but because we have a long term price pivot there where lots of bulls got trapped. after that comes the $11.5k-12k area (where we double topped) and $14k-15k, both of which should be good areas to sell.

if we get to $14k+ i'm selling into it pretty hard. it's too early for a bubble; sentiment just doesn't feel right. i still foresee another leg down like the 2013 correction (if not worse).

Why do people do really like to rush things up?Reaching out 20k usd on bitcoins price wont really be that easy anymore just like on what happened on last years and as being said lots of people being caught up heavily on 10k usd price which they do believe out that this is the bottom of such bear market but it comes worst to dip lower. Lots of people will really even sell off on 11k usd.

[bbc.reporter]

Already September and it's a few months to the end of the year, the price is currently at $ 7300, we only have a possibility of a price increase in the range of $ 10,000, I speak of a possible approval of ETF on September 30 , but see that even if an ETF were approved on September 30, I do not believe the price would reach $ 20,000. no chance to see $ 20,000 this year. I think Tom Lee needs to give his arm to cheer that his price forecast is very exaggerated and has no chance of becoming a reality this year

Tom Lee missed a point with Consensus 2018 correlation prediction...

A lot of analysts failed their price prediction for this year, just see that a lot of them do not show their faces on the bitcoin news channels.

Am I the only one becoming bullish in the forum? Whenever I bring up Tom Lee's prediction, everyone appears to be skeptical about it. Less bearish, but very skeptical. There is nothing negative or wrong with that, but maybe this is the best time to buy when there is blood on the streets.

[1BTC EQUALS 1CAR]

Already September and it's a few months to the end of the year, the price is currently at $ 7300, we only have a possibility of a price increase in the range of $ 10,000, I speak of a possible approval of ETF on September 30 , but see that even if an ETF were approved on September 30, I do not believe the price would reach $ 20,000. no chance to see $ 20,000 this year. I think Tom Lee needs to give his arm to cheer that his price forecast is very exaggerated and has no chance of becoming a reality this year

Tom Lee missed a point with Consensus 2018 correlation prediction...

A lot of analysts failed their price prediction for this year, just see that a lot of them do not show their faces on the bitcoin news channels.

Am I the only one becoming bullish in the forum? Whenever I bring up Tom Lee's prediction, everyone appears to be skeptical about it. Less bearish, but very skeptical. There is nothing negative or wrong with that, but maybe this is the best time to buy when there is blood on the streets.

How come Tom Lee's prediction make you more confident and more bullish? Tom Lee did already make predictions that did not happen or even close. Those conflicts and ETF won't surely affect us because those whales are organized and they make things happen in this game.