It's that time again! Rally is coming soon :)

[dancupid]

How nice of you to crop it so you can't see the bear trendline before it.

The long term bear trend line is broken by this bull trend for the first time since July (hence the rally).
Also this just happens to be the current trend - it may fail - at which point I will sell. I'm not suggesting the trend lines won't be broken - but it seems a reasonable guide for the short term.

don't worry, he only sees what he wants to.

That's wrong. I am just cautious.
If that were the case I wouldn't even bothered with a reply.

We're all cautious, but it helps to have some idea where the edge of the cliff is when walking blind. That trend-line is my cliff edge and I suspect I'm not the only one.

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[Elwar]

Even though I wish the price was up over $100/BTC I believe that the price will hover around $4 for a while.

It is apparent with the easing of the mining difficulty that we dipped below profitability for some miners when we reached the $4 range.

The "manipulator" drove the price down below $3 but it is slowly rising up to its real value.

If current mining difficulty is steady, many miners will hold more than sell slowing the inflation rate. And if we can make it through to late 2012 then the blockchain reward will be cut in half and there will be an upward movement in price from there on out.

[ElectricMucus]

The manipulator is nothing but early adopters trying to cash out a little. I doubt this paradigm will change.

[proudhon]

The manipulator is nothing but early adopters trying to cash out a little. I doubt this paradigm will change.

Especially with a clear and well established down trend (despite the past week or so) coupled with fresh bad news (i.e. the Euro transfer stuff).  I think we're currently in a calm before another very bad storm.

[Elwar]

The manipulator is nothing but early adopters trying to cash out a little. I doubt this paradigm will change.

It is the way that it goes down that is what appears to be manipulation.

Large walls set up that then fall just as it is going down.

Early adopters are not sitting on $100k to put up walls while also selling $100k worth of BTC.

[wobber]

It can it be a deliberate rise in the price, to sell at high price and then to buyback at a lower price. It seems that the guy(s) really know how to trade and use bots, want to profit A LOT (maybe driving prices lower than 2) and also they LIKE to play with the market. I feel a lot of ego.

[danman87]

The manipulator is nothing but early adopters trying to cash out a little. I doubt this paradigm will change.

It is the way that it goes down that is what appears to be manipulation.

Large walls set up that then fall just as it is going down.

Early adopters are not sitting on $100k to put up walls while also selling $100k worth of BTC.

Those walls are from MTGOX themselves. with zero auditing or regulation they are free to do whatever they want on their own exchange. They answer to no one. They can easily create/remove/buy/sell 100k orders at the drop of the hat.

[Dan The Man]

So you are saying that Mt Gox is artificially manipulating volatility with non-existant buy and sell orders that disappear when you try to take them?

[cypherdoc]

highly unlikely.  as discussed in another thread, mtgox makes more money the higher the price so one would wonder why they would've allowed the price to fall so far down from the top which has hurt their revenues immensely.

[BTCurious]

So you are saying that Mt Gox is artificially manipulating volatility with non-existant buy and sell orders that disappear when you try to take them?

In the small burst upwards last friday, I thought the askwalls at ฿3.35 and ฿3.50 were fake too. They were steep, like the bidwalls used to be before this small-increment thingey came around.
But nope. in a few seconds, 20 000 bitcoins were actually bought.

[cypherdoc]

So you are saying that Mt Gox is artificially manipulating volatility with non-existant buy and sell orders that disappear when you try to take them?

In the small burst upwards last friday, I thought the askwalls at ฿3.35 and ฿3.50 were fake too. They were steep, like the bidwalls used to be before this small-increment thingey came around.
But nope. in a few seconds, 20 000 bitcoins were actually bought.

there are real buyers out there looking to scoop up cheap coins.  look at how the top 5 Bitcoin holders EXPANDED their holdings.

[ElectricMucus]

Taking down oders is a normal process in trading when volatility turns out not to match expectations. Why buy at 3 when you could buy at 2.5. Why sell at 3.5 when you could sell at 4.

People (or their trading systems) are constantly watching indicators and want to maximize profits. Of course also the ones with alot of BTC or USD....

[proudhon]

In before we return to less than $3...

[Nagle]

Bitcoin, last 4 months, with 30 day trailing moving average.

We've had slow periods before, but for the last 4 months, the 30 day moving average has consistently gone down in almost a straight line. That has not changed.

The rate of decline has slowed a bit; the price dropped $3 in September, but only $2 in October. Of course, we're at $3 now. Not much further down to go.

It's not at all clear how the endgame plays out. The market is so much smaller now, and any big transaction yanks the price around briefly.

There's always a bottom at zero.

[Dan The Man]

Not on a logarithmic scale there isn't. And you will find your line is a lot straighter there too. On the way down and the way up. When talking about returns, nobody cares about the actual price, it's the percentage movement that matters. That's why logarithmic makes much more sense.

[BTCurious]

The rate of decline has slowed a bit; the price dropped $3 in September, but only $2 in October.

Actually, try putting it in Log. Then the rate of decline is actually increasing. (30% in August, 40% in September, 50% in October)
Edit: So yeah, actually not straight, as Dan said, but going faster and faster. This can also be blamed on less market depth though.

But yes, it's anyone's call. It only takes some lucky media attention to spark an influx of cash, and a corresponding rally, especially when we start off low like this.

Edit:

[Dan The Man]

High and low only have historic meaning. Without context how do we know that $3 is a low price? Maybe it's a really high price. If the market is purely speculative, nobody cares about the absolute price, they only care how it changes relative to it's previous price.

[BTCurious]

Let me rephrase that then:

It only takes some lucky media attention to spark an influx of cash, and a corresponding rally, especially when we start off with a rather extreme volatility like this.

[Dan The Man]

Let me rephrase that then:

It only takes some lucky media attention to spark an influx of cash, and a corresponding rally, especially when we start off with a rather extreme volatility like this.

So what you are saying is that it's media share is low. There are a lot of people that don't know about Bitcoin who might want in so it has the potential to increase in price. This has nothing to do with the dollar value. If the price was $1000 per coin and the general knowledge situation was the same would it also be a low price?

[cypherdoc]

i think tomorrow we get a large ramp in the stock mkt which will correspond to a ramp in Bitcoin.