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Author Topic: 9 days - 8 green 1 red - is this unprecedented?  (Read 4442 times)
dancupid
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October 28, 2011, 02:34:15 PM
 #1

Looks like May may have had more (I'm too lazy to do a custom time thing) , but I can't help feeling bullish.
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1495894037
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ineededausername
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October 28, 2011, 02:39:49 PM
 #2

Yeah, if you look at bitcoincharts 1day, the pattern is clear.  From June to now, we had lots of red but it appears to be over.
edit: Here's a striking picture:

(BFL)^2 < 0
speeder
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October 28, 2011, 02:58:45 PM
 #3

Using other charts, it looks we will have a short term rally, but still bull.

Using elliot wave theory, I would suggest we are in  "B" state, when we have a minor rally before the final downward direction.

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October 28, 2011, 03:54:33 PM
 #4

I believe ineededausername showed the situation quite clearly, but if you need any extra proof that the trend is up, then this graph is undeniable:


cbeast
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October 28, 2011, 04:14:21 PM
 #5

Using other charts, it looks we will have a short term rally, but still bull.

Using elliot wave theory, I would suggest we are in  "B" state, when we have a minor rally before the final downward direction.

So what does Elliot Wave theory say about this "final downward direction." What is the finality?

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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October 28, 2011, 04:20:06 PM
 #6

The situation is very interesting right now. $2 has shown very strong support and the last fall actually stopped at $2.5 which made the $2.x range much stronger. On the other hand, the last rally couldn't break $3.5 and so far this one hasn't either.

When either $2.5 or $3.5 breaks decisively, I think we'll see significant movement in that direction. Right now we are seeing bullish behaviour and we could be seeing a test of $3.5 in the near future.

I do like the fact that the price has been relatively stable. This is very nice for a change. Massive rallies is not what Bitcoin needs because they will overshoot big time, leading in a crash right away or much later. A relatively stable price with moderate ups and downs and slow climbing periods is much preferable.

But the market is still so small, I do think that when Bitcoin is ready to take off again it will take off like a rocket. Maybe not as fast of a rocket as last time, but it will be a crazy ride nonetheless.

I'm curious to see if we'll actually have a final crash to a new low in the next few months or if $2.04 really was the low. Many people are expecting this "super crash" to happen but I'm starting to be a bit doubtful about that. We've had plenty of situations where people could panic sell massively, Bitcoin has steadily gone from bad to worse price-wise. But there has been none of that, the biggest Mt. Gox volume is still around 200k which is not that much really.

And people will not be any more eager to panic sell at $2 or $1.5. That's not going to happen. In fact most people I know have stopped selling entirely because it's not worth it anymore. If you think Bitcoin is going to go up eventually it's kinda stupid to sell at these price levels. The price isn't the number one indicator of how healthy Bitcoin really is, not for people who really think Bitcoin is a great thing. And those people are all that matters in the end. Speculators can sell all the coins they have for all I care.

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dancupid
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October 28, 2011, 04:25:27 PM
 #7

I believe ineededausername showed the situation quite clearly, but if you need any extra proof that the trend is up, then this graph is undeniable:



Do you have something a bit more logarithmic? I'm only interested in those logarithms. I'm very much a logarithm sort of guy
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October 28, 2011, 04:38:00 PM
 #8

From my personal trading experiences of late I've felt safe trading in the lower $2.x range because I'm perfectly willing to hold long from that point on even if there is a big crash and I'm unable to short sell profitably. I think a lot of people share this view which is why the $2.x is getting stronger and stronger, especially the $2.0 - $2.5 range.

There's also the fact that small and medium players in the market can buy so much more with a certain amount of fiat money when the price is that low. But there's a big difference between $2 and $3, 50% actually, so right now we're at a totally different price range. That's why it has been difficult to advance from lower $3.x range.

And as I already said selling gets extremely unattractive the lower we go. It's true that I've said this in the past as well, but the truth is that the demand for Bitcoins in dollars was only carried by hype, the price was way over the top compared to "real" demand. Now we are at such price levels where the speculative demand is much closer to actual demand from real Bitcoin economy. The price will never actually reach the real trade demand but the closer it gets the less is needed from speculative demand to sustain the price.

Even if real trade demand is just 10-20% of current price, we only need 5-10 times speculative demand to sustain it. Compare that to a price of $6 where we need 10-20 times speculative demand to sustain the price. And for $12 we need 20-40 times. For $24 we need 40-80 times. This is really important actually. The further we go from real trade demand the less sustainable and less stable the price will be. This is why I don't want to go back to 100 times trade demand again, it's not healthy.

A much better scenario is that the Bitcoin economy slowly grows and the speculative demand multiplier stays at relatively sane levels. We'll see if it does because it's fairly easy to see how the real economy grows. There are many indicators for that which at least give us a loose picture. If the price is increasing much faster, then we're simply seeing the speculative demand grow massively which is not sustainable.

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October 28, 2011, 04:39:53 PM
 #9

I'm just glad difficulty is dropping like a rock so I can get back to mining!
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October 28, 2011, 04:51:56 PM
 #10

Using other charts, it looks we will have a short term rally, but still bull.

Using elliot wave theory, I would suggest we are in  "B" state, when we have a minor rally before the final downward direction.

So what does Elliot Wave theory say about this "final downward direction." What is the finality?

final I mean final of a cycle.

It is in B (ie: a last rise before the last crash).

Then it will go C (the last crash)

Then it will start all over again (rally I, crash II, rally III, crash IV, rally V. with either III or V reaching a new peak, beyond 30... then we have crash A, rally B and crash C again, repeat...)

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October 28, 2011, 05:00:34 PM
 #11

We'll see. I'm definitely intrigued but I wouldn't be surprised if the Elliot Wave theory doesn't quite work out as people expect. But If it does go like that I'll certainly be a believer and take it more seriously in the future Smiley

That kind of movement does make sense to me on some level so I'm somewhat prepared for it in my trading strategy. But I'm also prepared for the alternate which is that the theory doesn't quite apply to Bitcoin in the way people think it will. Or that it does but we're in a different phase than most people think. That's another possibility.

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October 28, 2011, 05:02:59 PM
 #12

We'll see. I'm definitely intrigued but I wouldn't be surprised if the Elliot Wave theory doesn't quite work out as people expect. But If it does go like that I'll certainly be a believer and take it more seriously in the future Smiley

That kind of movement does make sense to me on some level so I'm somewhat prepared for it in my trading strategy. But I'm also prepared for the alternate which is that the theory doesn't quite apply to Bitcoin in the way people think it will.

Right, I think Bitcoin follows traditional patterns to a point, but will eventually break the forces holding within traditional frameworks.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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October 28, 2011, 06:10:10 PM
 #13

Do you have something a bit more logarithmic? I'm only interested in those logarithms. I'm very much a logarithm sort of guy
Of course! I had to make this in excel, because bitcoincharts doesn't support the proper kind of log plot, but anyway:

You can see the logarithmic scale on the horizontal axis.
This analysis shows that bitcoin will forever stay at this exchange rate, never moving again. The decreasing fluctuations and increasing stability are obvious, even if you don't have the traders' eye.
I hope this helped!


Dang, making this plot took way too long >_<

bitclown
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October 29, 2011, 01:56:34 AM
 #14

Another indicator is hater activity. When things look grim they come out of their cave to rub it in our face, but when there's positive development they're more hesitant to reiterate their doom and gloom prophesy.

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October 29, 2011, 02:37:59 AM
 #15

nice charts Smiley
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October 29, 2011, 04:13:36 AM
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Another indicator is hater activity. When things look grim they come out of their cave to rub it in our face, but when there's positive development they're more hesitant to reiterate their doom and gloom prophesy.



Loved the graph, sent some bit-cents!

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October 29, 2011, 05:02:42 AM
 #17

Another indicator is hater activity. When things look grim they come out of their cave to rub it in our face, but when there's positive development they're more hesitant to reiterate their doom and gloom prophesy.



oh Man, this is great!  made my day, Sir!
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October 29, 2011, 07:38:35 AM
 #18

Great. Let's call it the bitnagle sentiment indicator.
:-)

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October 29, 2011, 08:25:05 AM
 #19

$3.75!  We're well on our way back to $10+!  I can feel it, the boom is here and it's only going to get stronger.

Maybe....

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October 29, 2011, 09:47:50 AM
 #20

I wouldn't be calling $10 just now but I have a feeling you weren't completely serious. I do think that a mid term reversal is confirmed if we have a clear breakout over $4. Going over $3.5 was already a strong indicator.

At $4.1 we would've experienced a 100% price increase from the bottom of 2.04. If that's not a reversal, nothing is. Currently it takes only around $35 000 to break 4.1. People are afraid to sell because the market is so bullish. All the signs for a real reversal are here.

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