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Author Topic: Could current price rise end with difficulty reset?  (Read 1158 times)
ultima
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October 28, 2011, 05:39:46 PM
 #1

Just a thought. At the moment there are 4.17 blocks / hour. This means a lot less bitcoins mined daily until difficulty resets, and this means less bitcoins on the supply side. This will change in 270 blocks and supply will grow again. Do you think this has any effect on price? Are there a lot of miners selling everything they mine out there?
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October 28, 2011, 06:00:50 PM
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it has a very minimal effect on price.  Every block is increases .0006% of the total bitcoins out there, or .095% increase per day, currently (and every day this % decreases).  If the block amounts per hour changes, it is still just a slight change.  The deflationary pressure is small, so changes in it affects price in an even smaller way.  Currently, block production is 2100 bitcoins less per day and average volume is what, like 70,000+ per day?  So that's a 3% increase in bitcoins volume once it readjusts, assuming all those extra coins are sold.  In the long run adjustments shouldn't matter for price.
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October 28, 2011, 07:45:37 PM
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is there some way to check how many blocks have been created each day?

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October 28, 2011, 08:59:25 PM
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block production is 2100 bitcoins less per day and average volume is what, like 70,000+ per day?  So that's a 3% increase

You assume that it is different money in this 70+K volume per day. This can be a wrong assumption.
If it is 7000 btc and they change hands ten times a day, then 2100 more coins will be 25% increase of supply
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October 28, 2011, 09:09:04 PM
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Yes, it'll have an effect on the price.  An extra 2400 BTC supply dumped per day will move the market.  The effect should be small but measurable.

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October 28, 2011, 09:15:04 PM
 #6

is there some way to check how many blocks have been created each day?

I don't know a site that gives you a chart of exactly that, but:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ - (hashrate/difficulty) is proportional to block rate.
http://blockchain.info/ - you can go back however many blocks you want and compute the rate yourself.

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