Market Analysis

[NRista94]

Bitcoin’s recent movements have given numerous traders hope that this bear market might be over, but there is a reason to believe this might not be the case. With the steep rises which Bitcoin has been engaging in, it is fair to suggest that it will soon be met with a resistance strong enough to cause a full rejection of price, which has been proven with yesterdays dump, but will the price drop even more?

Note that during August, Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) formed an ascending triangle, and while this is generally good activity, the way that September is shaping up suggests that a major fall is about to happen. The positive actions of September are looking like a last minute dash at trying to push Bitcoin into the $8000 range, which sadly, seems unlikely. If resistance toward Bitcoin’s price is strong, it could trigger an ABC correction, leading us into a significant and prolonged fall. Resistance could even be enough to push it down to $5000 or lower, and could therefore temporarily collapse the market.

Sticking directly to the trend line does seem to show a sharp decline is imminent. The historical data reveals that Bitcoin’s current position is extremely similar to its position in 2015, where BTC stuck religiously to its trend line. Bitcoin is also known to stick closer to its trend lines than rivals such as Ethereum, and at the moment the trend lines are not looking good. Bitcoin has always been susceptible to large-scale corrections, less so than most altcoins, but more so than most stocks and other assets.

It is not clear when exactly the correction will take place, but a fair suggestion would be that it could happen within the next seven days.

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[yla1974]

Unfortunately regulators come from all sides. Europe obliged the exchange to change the rules until mid-2019. Tether coin of the gods, is increasingly in doubt and under pressure. Apparently we are waiting for a protracted bear market, at least until 2020. Perhaps the reduction of the award for the production of bitcoins, will revive the market.

[Moxivuki]

It seems that you seem to be a very professional trader, then have you analyzed how it will change when more investors start dumping in Bitcoin?

[charlotte04]

Bitcoin’s recent movements have given numerous traders hope that this bear market might be over, but there is a reason to believe this might not be the case. With the steep rises which Bitcoin has been engaging in, it is fair to suggest that it will soon be met with a resistance strong enough to cause a full rejection of price, which has been proven with yesterdays dump, but will the price drop even more?

Note that during August, Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) formed an ascending triangle, and while this is generally good activity, the way that September is shaping up suggests that a major fall is about to happen. The positive actions of September are looking like a last minute dash at trying to push Bitcoin into the $8000 range, which sadly, seems unlikely. If resistance toward Bitcoin’s price is strong, it could trigger an ABC correction, leading us into a significant and prolonged fall. Resistance could even be enough to push it down to $5000 or lower, and could therefore temporarily collapse the market.

Sticking directly to the trend line does seem to show a sharp decline is imminent. The historical data reveals that Bitcoin’s current position is extremely similar to its position in 2015, where BTC stuck religiously to its trend line. Bitcoin is also known to stick closer to its trend lines than rivals such as Ethereum, and at the moment the trend lines are not looking good. Bitcoin has always been susceptible to large-scale corrections, less so than most altcoins, but more so than most stocks and other assets.

It is not clear when exactly the correction will take place, but a fair suggestion would be that it could happen within the next seven days.

That would be the dark ages of cryptocurrency since a lot of people will be scared and would end up giving up there holdings and that is the time that whales is going to pump it since those weak people will be out of the market but would be hyped again when it would start to go up tremendously.

[NRista94]

It seems that you seem to be a very professional trader, then have you analyzed how it will change when more investors start dumping in Bitcoin?

Not that experienced, but someone with an eye for details, and someone who has been following the charts.
No one can predict the number of investors that are going to come in at a certain time, but following the patterns and charts can give you an overview of the current situation, and we are all here to discuss and spread our opinions about it.

[biofuel]

The great news should come today to the market to attract people to open marginal long positions in BTC. It's needed for a limited recovery to 6700-6900 and going down further to 5000 afterward.

[S00rabh]

I agree to an extend. I have seen same pattern in last two halving. There was a steep price rise and then a fall right after halving. So I am expecting real rise to be around 2020 halving.

[NRista94]

Unfortunately regulators come from all sides. Europe obliged the exchange to change the rules until mid-2019. Tether coin of the gods, is increasingly in doubt and under pressure. Apparently we are waiting for a protracted bear market, at least until 2020. Perhaps the reduction of the award for the production of bitcoins, will revive the market.

I heard about the struggles that Tether has had, but i haven't followed up on their situation closely, But i did saw some rumors that Bitfinex got $100m from Tether reserve, which made me think that they stabilized their situation. My personal thoughts and hopes are that we can see a scenario like last year and that the price is going to go up in late November.

[NRista94]

The great news should come today to the market to attract people to open marginal long positions in BTC. It's needed for a limited recovery to 6700-6900 and going down further to 5000 afterward.

The resistance has to show its power now or otherwise if the price drops below $6000 we can easily expect a hard pullback towards 5250-5500 USD levels

[Pursuer]

Bitcoin’s recent movements have given numerous traders hope that this bear market might be over, but there is a reason to believe this might not be the case. With the steep rises which Bitcoin has been engaging in, it is fair to suggest that it will soon be met with a resistance strong enough to cause a full rejection of price, which has been proven with yesterdays dump, but will the price drop even more?

if you want to start a topic with the words "market analysis" the least you can do is to study the market first and then make a topic about it!
what happened yesterday with the drop had nothing to do with reaching a resistance or anything like that. it was purely a panic that was caused by an unimportant news about GoldmanSachs. not to mention that the rise was in no sense "STEEP"! it was a normal rise during a long period of time with a very slow speed showing a solid buy support.
I additionally believe that the altcoin dumps such as the huge ETH drop yesterday played a big role in pulling bitcoin price down.

however if you are just sharing your wishes about seeing a big drop then it is a different story and you should change the title into "I wish to see a big price drop".

[Gadhoh]

It seems that you seem to be a very professional trader, then have you analyzed how it will change when more investors start dumping in Bitcoin?

Not that experienced, but someone with an eye for details, and someone who has been following the charts.
No one can predict the number of investors that are going to come in at a certain time, but following the patterns and charts can give you an overview of the current situation, and we are all here to discuss and spread our opinions about it.

that is true because experienced people are not necessarily proficient in various things, predictions or anything else, they may fail, if successful, the chances are only a few percent. Market turmoil is a very natural thing.

[NRista94]

Bitcoin’s recent movements have given numerous traders hope that this bear market might be over, but there is a reason to believe this might not be the case. With the steep rises which Bitcoin has been engaging in, it is fair to suggest that it will soon be met with a resistance strong enough to cause a full rejection of price, which has been proven with yesterdays dump, but will the price drop even more?

if you want to start a topic with the words "market analysis" the least you can do is to study the market first and then make a topic about it!
what happened yesterday with the drop had nothing to do with reaching a resistance or anything like that. it was purely a panic that was caused by an unimportant news about GoldmanSachs. not to mention that the rise was in no sense "STEEP"! it was a normal rise during a long period of time with a very slow speed showing a solid buy support.
I additionally believe that the altcoin dumps such as the huge ETH drop yesterday played a big role in pulling bitcoin price down.

however if you are just sharing your wishes about seeing a big drop then it is a different story and you should change the title into "I wish to see a big price drop".

Okay, maybe a more appropriate title would be "Market Analysis from my perspective"
But i think everyone is free to share his/her thoughts about the situations, or am i wrong?

[1Referee]

We're still not near the point at which we can consider the market to be priced fairly, especially with altcoins being way higher above their main utility value. Crypto prices in general hover always well above their utility value, but the extent we've seen them be valued at this year is just insane.

I like how Bitcoin is conveniently pushing back altcoins to their 2017 lows. I'm pretty sure that a couple more of these price swings will help to shake off even the most delusional *I will never sell* noob "hodlers".

I heard about the struggles that Tether has had, but i haven't followed up on their situation closely, But i did saw some rumors that Bitfinex got $100m from Tether reserve, which made me think that they stabilized their situation.

The $100 million Tether transaction to Bitfinex wasn't a rumor, nor was it Bitfinex "stabilizing" their situation. What's there to stabilize anyway? They can print any amount of Tether at will.

[anthonytcm]

We're still not near the point at which we can consider the market to be priced fairly, especially with altcoins being way higher above their main utility value. Crypto prices in general hover always well above their utility value, but the extent we've seen them be valued at this year is just insane.

I like how Bitcoin is conveniently pushing back altcoins to their 2017 lows. I'm pretty sure that a couple more of these price swings will help to shake off even the most delusional *I will never sell* noob "hodlers".

I heard about the struggles that Tether has had, but i haven't followed up on their situation closely, But i did saw some rumors that Bitfinex got $100m from Tether reserve, which made me think that they stabilized their situation.

The $100 million Tether transaction to Bitfinex wasn't a rumor, nor was it Bitfinex "stabilizing" their situation. What's there to stabilize anyway? They can print any amount of Tether at will.

What a nice way to put it, "Bitcoin is pushing back altcoins to their 2017 lows... A couple more of these price swings will helpt to shake off the most delusional *I will never sell* noob "hodlers""

Thought yes there's some value to hodling, I feel it's been waay too romanticized lately specially after last year's bull run. Let's see how the market behaves by the end of this year.

[rickadone]

It seems that you seem to be a very professional trader, then have you analyzed how it will change when more investors start dumping in Bitcoin?

Normal, a trader who is knowledgeable and knows how to follow a market trend should be able to see the incoming sell out which is where it tended towards anyway.

With the rise some people were already calling to the moon, it started getting weak at some point and then stalled very close to the trend line formed from previous lower highs and there we are, with the bears back taking the wheels and I guess for now, we have to wait to see where they drive the market to, which would actually sound to reverse around the $5k range.

Going below that, would not come out pretty fine in my opinion.

[Vanhoang2000]

Our experts, or market analysts and market analysts, require that we need broader, broader knowledge of the market so that we can use the knowledge and market analysis more fully.

[Knabu]

Common consensus on the status of the market currently:

Prices do fluctuate but overall the warm welcome from institutional platforms has been great. The adoption is growing rapidly without common people having any institutional & regulated ways of getting into cryptocurrencies, apart from few institutions. The development side has always looked great, there's an enormous amount of talented developers doing what they do best as we speak. New innovations amd solutions to BTC is being developed every day and tested, this hasn't slowed down at any point.

Some may call it bear market and it may feels just that, but looking at the big picture the crypto industry as a whole is in a very good spot right now. If there's someone worried about holding their Bitcoins and are about to sell, ask people from 2014 how does it feel right now knowing that they sold at a ridiculously low price just because they "felt rekt".

Market is looking gorgeous, dumps here and there, but it's all background noise in the long term.

[darkangel11]

So, according to OP going along the downtrend will mean an ABC correction when we get close to when the downtrend line and bottom resistance line meet. Why? The meeting point of these lines usually shows the moment before which there will have to be a move, but the direction of this move is unknown. If you really want to compare this to the previous bear market in 2015, it was following the trendline until March, but then it stopped. Had it followed the line of upper resistance, it would've reached $100 in April or May 2015.

[NRista94]

We're still not near the point at which we can consider the market to be priced fairly, especially with altcoins being way higher above their main utility value. Crypto prices in general hover always well above their utility value, but the extent we've seen them be valued at this year is just insane.

I like how Bitcoin is conveniently pushing back altcoins to their 2017 lows. I'm pretty sure that a couple more of these price swings will help to shake off even the most delusional *I will never sell* noob "hodlers".

I heard about the struggles that Tether has had, but i haven't followed up on their situation closely, But i did saw some rumors that Bitfinex got $100m from Tether reserve, which made me think that they stabilized their situation.

The $100 million Tether transaction to Bitfinex wasn't a rumor, nor was it Bitfinex "stabilizing" their situation. What's there to stabilize anyway? They can print any amount of Tether at will.

Regarding the "rumor", i didn't saw an article about it or anything, but i saw a discussion on a channel that started on a tweet about transferring funds to Bitfinex, so i couldn't say that i was 100% sure about that,but thanks for the info.
And yes, the alts should go down too, cause their price just went up cause of traders, and not cause of their real value, totally agree with you on that.

[Fideend]

Bitcoin’s recent movements have given numerous traders hope that this bear market might be over, but there is a reason to believe this might not be the case. With the steep rises which Bitcoin has been engaging in, it is fair to suggest that it will soon be met with a resistance strong enough to cause a full rejection of price, which has been proven with yesterdays dump, but will the price drop even more?

Note that during August, Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) formed an ascending triangle, and while this is generally good activity, the way that September is shaping up suggests that a major fall is about to happen. The positive actions of September are looking like a last minute dash at trying to push Bitcoin into the $8000 range, which sadly, seems unlikely. If resistance toward Bitcoin’s price is strong, it could trigger an ABC correction, leading us into a significant and prolonged fall. Resistance could even be enough to push it down to $5000 or lower, and could therefore temporarily collapse the market.

Sticking directly to the trend line does seem to show a sharp decline is imminent. The historical data reveals that Bitcoin’s current position is extremely similar to its position in 2015, where BTC stuck religiously to its trend line. Bitcoin is also known to stick closer to its trend lines than rivals such as Ethereum, and at the moment the trend lines are not looking good. Bitcoin has always been susceptible to large-scale corrections, less so than most altcoins, but more so than most stocks and other assets.

It is not clear when exactly the correction will take place, but a fair suggestion would be that it could happen within the next seven days.

Actually, we can see this happening already and the price was not actually able to hit the trend line and decided to take a dive a little below $7400 if I am correct. For now, I am still seeing the possibilities of going a lot lower than we had before with the way the falling wedge looks like.

Anything dropping below that wedge would actually cause some quick sell out in the market, but one thing that is certain right now is that bears are really still in action in this market, and the bulls have not been able to garnered that enough strength yet to push the market further.

[rumexx]

Bitcoin price as at the ending of August and few days of September was showing a good case of price upward movements and it was noted that MACD has crossed the zero datum line for the first time since this year. It was a welcome development as we were expecting $8K as our next destination. I tend to believe your positions as the September date with ETF and SEC is at hand already and if SEC postpone the admission of ETF again then the support at $6k may be broken land crashing bitcoin to sub $5k

[frowsiter]

Don't know why we are bothering with all the price analysis and market analysis. I mean these things are too complicated to get predicted in the crypto world as you know. Things are not the same as they might have been for the last minute and upto that level the crypto is changing. This makes things very much unpredictable here. I have seen many experts giving out advices over it and then eventually when the time comes the crypto analysis would have gotten failed already. This is how crypto is interacting with the market so it'd literally vain to predict anything right now.

[gabmen]

Don't know why we are bothering with all the price analysis and market analysis. I mean these things are too complicated to get predicted in the crypto world as you know. Things are not the same as they might have been for the last minute and upto that level the crypto is changing. This makes things very much unpredictable here. I have seen many experts giving out advices over it and then eventually when the time comes the crypto analysis would have gotten failed already. This is how crypto is interacting with the market so it'd literally vain to predict anything right now.

Yeah more often than not, predictions are way off target. Though at times, reading charts can be helpful in guiding you at least to where the price is going, but not showing you where it'll arrive at. It's really to random.

[eaglewhite80]

As long as market tends to move faster to the downside than going up, it is obvious the bears are still in this market hugely and price rejection at certain resistance is always going to be rapid. We recently erased about 2 weeks gain within few hours. That to me is something!

[maxreish]

Yeah, you have a good explanation and insight about trend lines, markets and everything. I can sense too, that the correction will be happen soon like for a week or two. As long as big investors or whales will not do some actions to alter the market. Let us just hope that the bull run will  come soon.

[Idrisu]

The reality of the market analysis relay on the technical and fundamentals analysis which we used there indicators to understand the direction the market is taking.  I think many people understand the market analysis just that they don't follow the rules of the indicators that is why we lose money in trading.

[tooklau]

Never use the current market trend chart to compare with the past trend chart. This is the wrong judgment. Those whales are hoping to see such a result!

[NRista94]

Don't know why we are bothering with all the price analysis and market analysis. I mean these things are too complicated to get predicted in the crypto world as you know. Things are not the same as they might have been for the last minute and upto that level the crypto is changing. This makes things very much unpredictable here. I have seen many experts giving out advices over it and then eventually when the time comes the crypto analysis would have gotten failed already. This is how crypto is interacting with the market so it'd literally vain to predict anything right now.

Well, we can all share our opinions and discuss the current situation in order to get a better view of it, two minds are always smarter than one.
I'm always eager to see someone else's thoughts, and learn something from that

[NRista94]

The reality of the market analysis relay on the technical and fundamentals analysis which we used there indicators to understand the direction the market is taking.  I think many people understand the market analysis just that they don't follow the rules of the indicators that is why we lose money in trading.

Many people understand them - Yes, But i think even more people don't understand them, in order for one person to have profits another person has to lose some funds, that's how the market goes for now. There is still a lot of stages crypto has to pass in order to get addopted and when people won't have to change their crypto into RL cash, till then we are going to watch the bear vs bull game.

[nicolas1979]

Bitcoin’s recent movements have given numerous traders hope that this bear market might be over, but there is a reason to believe this might not be the case. With the steep rises which Bitcoin has been engaging in, it is fair to suggest that it will soon be met with a resistance strong enough to cause a full rejection of price, which has been proven with yesterdays dump, but will the price drop even more?

Note that during August, Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) formed an ascending triangle, and while this is generally good activity, the way that September is shaping up suggests that a major fall is about to happen. The positive actions of September are looking like a last minute dash at trying to push Bitcoin into the $8000 range, which sadly, seems unlikely. If resistance toward Bitcoin’s price is strong, it could trigger an ABC correction, leading us into a significant and prolonged fall. Resistance could even be enough to push it down to $5000 or lower, and could therefore temporarily collapse the market.

Sticking directly to the trend line does seem to show a sharp decline is imminent. The historical data reveals that Bitcoin’s current position is extremely similar to its position in 2015, where BTC stuck religiously to its trend line. Bitcoin is also known to stick closer to its trend lines than rivals such as Ethereum, and at the moment the trend lines are not looking good. Bitcoin has always been susceptible to large-scale corrections, less so than most altcoins, but more so than most stocks and other assets.

It is not clear when exactly the correction will take place, but a fair suggestion would be that it could happen within the next seven days.

You have very good analysis but I'm afraid like we do every day, analysis is only prediction. Right or wrong no one knows but at least we have sign to do something, better for everyone. Until now many people only have psychology ( faith ) that bitcoin will rise again and from there they keep standing. In this situation you should see market reality and cut loss from every activity is better than everyday make analysis. I only follow my strategy and before bitcoin get more lower I can't buy, still waiting.

[NRista94]

Never use the current market trend chart to compare with the past trend chart. This is the wrong judgment. Those whales are hoping to see such a result!

I will have that in mind, but what other options do we have, to what can we compare the current situation. All "predictions" have to have a comparison to something, it can still give us some kind of overview of the situation that might come, and make us think more deeply why did it came last time and will it come again.

[ChrisPop]

I am actively trading on Bitcoin and watching every move it makes and I do believe we will have a retrace to $5k range before going back up for a new ATH! The bears have dominated the bulls for several months now, almost 1 year so I think that is enough accumulation for big dogs. Moreover, adoption is increasing at an incredible rate so I'm confident that the price will follow soon.

[NRista94]

Bitcoin’s recent movements have given numerous traders hope that this bear market might be over, but there is a reason to believe this might not be the case. With the steep rises which Bitcoin has been engaging in, it is fair to suggest that it will soon be met with a resistance strong enough to cause a full rejection of price, which has been proven with yesterdays dump, but will the price drop even more?

Note that during August, Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) formed an ascending triangle, and while this is generally good activity, the way that September is shaping up suggests that a major fall is about to happen. The positive actions of September are looking like a last minute dash at trying to push Bitcoin into the $8000 range, which sadly, seems unlikely. If resistance toward Bitcoin’s price is strong, it could trigger an ABC correction, leading us into a significant and prolonged fall. Resistance could even be enough to push it down to $5000 or lower, and could therefore temporarily collapse the market.

Sticking directly to the trend line does seem to show a sharp decline is imminent. The historical data reveals that Bitcoin’s current position is extremely similar to its position in 2015, where BTC stuck religiously to its trend line. Bitcoin is also known to stick closer to its trend lines than rivals such as Ethereum, and at the moment the trend lines are not looking good. Bitcoin has always been susceptible to large-scale corrections, less so than most altcoins, but more so than most stocks and other assets.

It is not clear when exactly the correction will take place, but a fair suggestion would be that it could happen within the next seven days.

You have very good analysis but I'm afraid like we do every day, analysis is only prediction. Right or wrong no one knows but at least we have sign to do something, better for everyone. Until now many people only have psychology ( faith ) that bitcoin will rise again and from there they keep standing. In this situation you should see market reality and cut loss from every activity is better than everyday make analysis. I only follow my strategy and before bitcoin get more lower I can't buy, still waiting.

I agree that every analysis is just a prediction, but with more positive predictions from different people, there is a higher chance that the market goes up. As i said in a reply above two minds are smarter than one, we share our knowledge and our view of the situation in order to have a cleaner view and gather some profits. Every trader trades for himself and has to do his own math in order to make profits.