Network congestion & transactions

[vlad230]

I have been using BTC for some time now (about 1y) and noticed that the completion of a transaction varies greatly in duration from time to time.

For example, I have sent a transaction (223 bytes) that was going to confirm within 10 blocks with a cost of 1 sat/byte and it finalized in about 8h last week, Sept 7th but one week before that I did the same transaction (223 bytes & 10 blocks confirmation again) and it was processed in about 1.5-2h.

Is this because the congestion increased (as well as prices) after I have sent sent the payment and my 1 sat/byte transaction ended up being less appealing to miners, thus got processed later?
Or is there something else that I'm not aware of?

[1714980877]

1714980877

[1714980877]

1714980877

[1714980877]

1714980877

[1714980877]

1714980877

[1714980877]

1714980877

[LoyceV]

Is this because the congestion increased (as well as prices) after I have sent sent the payment and my 1 sat/byte transaction ended up being less appealing to miners, thus got processed later?

Correct.

The estimate is based on past transactions, and will be correct most of the time. Future transactions and block time can sometimes vary.

[vlad230]

Correct.

The estimate is based on past transactions, and will be correct most of the time. Future transactions and block time can sometimes vary.

Ok, thanks for confirming.

So, bad news is I've sent a new transaction that will be confirmed in 5 blocks for the same 1 sat/byte price... I assume this will get processed waaaayy later....

I'm using an electrum wallet and the price recommendation came from there. Basically I chose the confirmation time (i.e. 5/10 blocks) based on the price since it doesn't have to be urgent but I am expecting/hoping it to confirm today.

Might have been better off selecting the 10 blocks one for the same price, right? As I assume cheaper miners will be taking care of those.

[bob123]

So, bad news is I've sent a new transaction that will be confirmed in 5 blocks for the same 1 sat/byte price... I assume this will get processed waaaayy later....

You can check the current mempool status (amount of transactions with X sat/B) here: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,24h.

1 sat/B is probably not enough for the TX to be confirmed within 5 blocks.
As you can see on the site above, the amount of TX (and therefore also the needed fee rate to get confirmed within X blocks) has gone up a few blocks ago.

This may clean up soon. I do think your TX will still confirm today, but maybe not within the next 5 blocks.
But since this isn't urgent, i guess you are fine.

If you somehow still need to bump the TX, you might also use CPFP to do so.

[vlad230]

You can check the current mempool status (amount of transactions with X sat/B) here: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,24h.

1 sat/B is probably not enough for the TX to be confirmed within 5 blocks.
As you can see on the site above, the amount of TX (and therefore also the needed fee rate to get confirmed within X blocks) has gone up a few blocks ago.

This may clean up soon. I do think your TX will still confirm today, but maybe not within the next 5 blocks.
But since this isn't urgent, i guess you are fine.

If you somehow still need to bump the TX, you might also use CPFP to do so.

Thanks for the info!

It looks like the mempool increase in size significantly just after I have submitted my transaction. Seems like bad timing from my end

Will wait for it to be done, no need to bump it