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Author Topic: [Discussion] GPU prices and the current bear market [self-moderated]  (Read 58 times)
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iasenko
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September 11, 2018, 10:56:23 PM
 #1

Self-moderated Rules:
- any spam [1] and off-topic will be removed without notice.
- read the comments before you post/reply
- enjoy Smiley

[1] - replying without reading the previous comments, zero value posts, long unnecessary quotes/pyramids, etc.



I think this is the right section to post since the Speculation is only Bitcoin related.

What will happen to the prices of the graphics cards/ both used and new/ as the crypto market is bearish for quite so long now?

In addition, Nvidia announced giving up on the Crypto dedicated chips but the RTX generation is now here and with quite high prices already.

People started selling their old rigs for two main reasons, quit mining or upgrading.
So what we can expect in this sector? I'm wishing for lower prices as everyone else / except the producer/.

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September 12, 2018, 01:32:53 PM
 #2

I think the right board for this would be mining especulation (board 81)

There is too much spam here and you will have a hard time moderating here if they come.

This mining speculation is an interesting board and few people know it

On topic:



People started selling their old rigs for two main reasons, quit mining or upgrading.
So what we can expect in this sector? I'm wishing for lower prices as everyone else / except the producer/.


Are those pre owned mining rigs worth anything?

I believe prices will not drop too much since these equipment cost a lot to be produced.
Even if the demand is low....

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September 12, 2018, 06:11:55 PM
 #3

I wanted to revive this section in a way that's why I posted here. No worries about the spammers, I can handle them Smiley

Regarding the price, I see cards like gtx 970 now sold for quite cheep money. I'm not looking to mine just to revive my old gaming machine, so I can wait for the price drop.

I have quite a lot of hardware which I consider selling and make a small upgrade.

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September 12, 2018, 06:18:32 PM
 #4

These cards are not used for mining Bitcoin, so their use in mining altcoins will not affect as there are many of those shitcoins.
The market is now in decline "only 10%" but does not mean the end of cryptocurrencies "prices now are higher than last year," some will be mining and keeping those coins.
Also, we are talking about devices, not currencies. It means that their price will not be much lower as there are material costs. Mining "specialized" devices and not all GPU/graphics cards.

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September 12, 2018, 08:23:01 PM
 #5

I don't think the price for GPU chips will come down anytime sooner even if the market continues to remain bearish. There are two major reasons,

1. Production cost:
Such high end computing units cost a lot to produce. The company will have to maintain a profit margin even if it is marginal.

2. Low demand:
Frankly speaking, what percentage of the crypto currency holders are miners as well? A study conducted by Jon Peddie Research shows, that only 3 million mining GPUs were sold in 2017 as compared to 776 million video graphics cards. In percentile term, it is only 0.39% of the total sales. And with the rising mining and electricity costs, AMD and NVidia isn't forecasting any further growth in numbers as the market size is really small compared to the global market.

Research paper: https://www.jonpeddie.com/press-releases/gpu-market-declined-seasonally-in-q4-cryptocurrency-provides-smaller-offset

The cost of a technology can only decrease if there is a huge market for it. Think about smartphone and you will understand. If the market is huge, then the per unit cost will come down because the companies will churn the revenue from the huge volume, even if the production cost remains the same!

I neither see a huge market for GPUs in crypto mining becuse of the rising ancillary costs, nor I see the reasons for companies to be worried about dropping sales figures due to insignificant percentage of their business. Simple free market rules!

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iasenko
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September 13, 2018, 08:13:07 AM
 #6


2. Low demand:
Frankly speaking, what percentage of the crypto currency holders are miners as well? A study conducted by Jon Peddie Research shows, that only 3 million mining GPUs were sold in 2017 as compared to 776 million video graphics cards. In percentile term, it is only 0.39% of the total sales. And with the rising mining and electricity costs, AMD and NVidia isn't forecasting any further growth in numbers as the market size is really small compared to the global market.

Yeah but we are talking about a high-end graphic cards here as most of the miners invest in the crème de la crème of the performance and power. I wonder what is the statistics based on the different models like 1070 or 1080. What percentage was used for mining and what for gaming.

An analysis from April shows what is the real price in December/January of the cards and what they were sold for by the retailers has a huge difference. [1]That time the situation was extreme of course, and now thing are more normalized. What I'm wondering if the market will settle more and the difference between the MSRP and the actual retail price will shrink more which of course will affect the price of the used cards too.

Thinking to get one (or few) 1080ti but shall I do it now or shall I wait a few more months?

[1] https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/cryptocurrency-mining-graphics-card-prices/

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September 13, 2018, 09:31:49 AM
 #7

We have to look at where the main source of demand is coming from, and by looking into that, it's safe to say that Ethereum has been the most GPU driven coin in this whole space.

If we go a bit further than that, then the following things have to be taken into consideration when it comes to Ethereum;

# block subsidy reduction.
# the transitioning into a POS network.

Depending on which happens first, this will guaranteed result in less miner demand, especially with how Ethereum won't be scaling up any time soon and thus there is no reason for the price to compensate reduction in block subsidy. Ethereum's hashrate has taken a dive and I don't think it will stop any time soon.

Either way, once Ethereum is full POS, the global demand of GPU's will sink down with at least 50% which is an advantageous event for all non crypto users of GPU's. There is no way the current number of GPU's put to work to mine Ethereum can be put to work to mine other coins profitably. They will end up on the market eventually.

That's not all, what if other GPU coins think it's good to transition into a POS network as well after Ethereum's successful switch?

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