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Author Topic: BTFD and HODL strategy (New contrarian strategy)  (Read 151 times)
icyboy89
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September 13, 2018, 02:36:02 AM
Last edit: September 13, 2018, 05:38:01 AM by icyboy89
 #1

I am trying out a new contrarian strategy using play money on Delta.

Every month I would set aside $3k (For 30 days in a month)
Every day, I would BTFD and put $100 into the the biggest negative 24hr % change for all Alt/Btc
on Binance. I do not put $3k all at once or something because its to lower the risk of catching a falling knife.

If there are no coins in the red, I would not buy at all for that day. and that extra $100 would be
added into my fiat stash to be redistributed equally for the remaining days on that month. (Edit:
I think it makes more sense to redistribute it to the next 30 days rather than remaining days of the month).

I simply HODL and do not sell except if the coin that I own happens to be the biggest positive 24hr % for all
Alt/Btc, which I would sell all holdings and then redistribute the fiat into the remaining fiat stash.

I do not have a specific time of the day to buy, but I will do it every day on the first moment when I log in to Binance
for that day.

So far i'm two days in into the experiment and results seems good:

I bought 270.74 RDN on 12 sep and 2195.43 GO today.
Total capital invested = $200
Total capital now = $211.39 (haven't taken 0.1% binance trading fees)
after fees would be approx = $210.89  (Taking into account 0.2% trading fees, 0.1% for fiat to btc, and another 0.1% for btc to alt)

Would update in between if you guys are interested.
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September 13, 2018, 03:02:19 AM
 #2

Definitely interested. Will it work? I don't know. But I'm definitely interested on how this will pan out.

Just to add though, not because a certain coin/token is in Binance it doesn't automatically mean that the coin/token is actually good or reputable. What if the reason that the coin/token dropped in price is because the project did a scam quit or if the project went bankrupt or something? Fundamentals should still play a role here. Just my 2 satoshis.

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September 13, 2018, 03:07:32 AM
 #3

Definitely interested. Will it work? I don't know. But I'm definitely interested on how this will pan out.

Just to add though, not because a certain coin/token is in Binance it doesn't automatically mean that the coin/token is actually good or reputable. What if the reason that the coin/token dropped in price is because the project did a scam quit or if the project went bankrupt or something? Fundamentals should still play a role here. Just my 2 satoshis.

I understand, the reason I use Binance is because of the volume (To be applicable irl if you choose to) and at least the coin on there are not total shitcoins. Of course if there is a bitconnect 2.0 and the prices are falling rapidly because of it being a scam then it makes reason not to buy the
dip. Some common sense has to be used.
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September 13, 2018, 03:33:14 AM
 #4

Definitely interested. Will it work? I don't know. But I'm definitely interested on how this will pan out.

Just to add though, not because a certain coin/token is in Binance it doesn't automatically mean that the coin/token is actually good or reputable. What if the reason that the coin/token dropped in price is because the project did a scam quit or if the project went bankrupt or something? Fundamentals should still play a role here. Just my 2 satoshis.

I understand, the reason I use Binance is because of the volume (To be applicable irl if you choose to) and at least the coin on there are not total shitcoins. Of course if there is a bitconnect 2.0 and the prices are falling rapidly because of it being a scam then it makes reason not to buy the
dip. Some common sense has to be used.

Yeap, I definitely get why you chose Binance(because it has better liquidity). My point was just to pretty much tell you to watch out for shitcoins.  Tongue Anyway, best of luck!

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September 13, 2018, 05:09:47 AM
 #5

That's a good one. I think this strategy would work. Am waiting to hear your testimony and I would definitely give it a trial and see if it can work.
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September 13, 2018, 07:03:31 AM
 #6

Interesting idea, share your results with us.

For better consistency of your trading routine you will probably need to set a certain time when you evaluate the biggest negative 24hr % and put your buy order. Furthermore, consider some "plan B" for exiting from your positions. You may miss profit because some coin will perform slightly worse than all other but it could still make you x times of your buy price. 

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September 14, 2018, 12:47:57 AM
Last edit: September 14, 2018, 02:02:03 AM by icyboy89
 #7

Interesting idea, share your results with us.

For better consistency of your trading routine you will probably need to set a certain time when you evaluate the biggest negative 24hr % and put your buy order. Furthermore, consider some "plan B" for exiting from your positions. You may miss profit because some coin will perform slightly worse than all other but it could still make you x times of your buy price.  

I will check the prices the first thing I wake up in the morning. But I can't say for certain when exactly. Sometimes I wake up at 6am, sometimes 7 or 8am. I could check the prices on that certain time but I would like to make it as "real life" as possible and most people do not religiously do something the exact time every day.

I think an exit strategy could be applied and is very likely profitable, you could try it in your setup but for now I would like to try a extreme contrarian approach. The only exit is when the coin reaches the highest 24hr % returns for all alts. Risk are mitigated by adding small positions per day which will result in holding various coins. Anyway, day 3 results are below, RDN went bananas on the 2nd day and became the largest % returns for all alts on 2nd day after being the biggest loser on the 1st, therefore I sold all RDN to tether as per my strategy and would add in to my $100 daily investment spread across the next 30 days. Right now results are very impressive, although its mostly due to RDN going crazy. GoChain profited a few dollars.

Day 3:
DATE   CAPITAL INVESTED/EARNED   COIN   AMT BOUGHT   AMT SOLD
12th Sep   -$100                               RDN        270.74   
13th Sep   -$100                               GO          2195.43   
13th Sep   $142.75                            RDN                            270.74
14th Sep   -$104.75                           GO          2457.42   

HOLDINGS   
GO   4652.85
TETHER   $138.00 (-$4.75 reinvested in GO)

TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTED   $300
CURRENT VALUE   $341.97


Btw, if you like my strategy and updates, if possible do spare me some BTCs, even few dollars would be good:
BTC: 15ZHGBtE6V9r28HT1nFnoPfsB8UspsM6Di




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September 14, 2018, 09:03:14 AM
Last edit: September 14, 2018, 11:41:49 AM by Tytanowy Janusz
 #8

BTFD - buy the f**king dip. First red (impuls) is not the dip. It may be short term dip (few hours) but for sure not long term dip. Here is example:



I can find many more if you like. That day bad news came and sky was the most loosing coin(your buy zone).
This strategy wont work my friend because its based on "i dont know how to do TA or FA so ill create strategy out of nowhere and see if it works". Just understand this - you buy coin based on its few hour performance not for its next few hour performance (what would be somehow understandable but also not optimal) but for hodl long term till next pump (beeing top gainer). In most cases you will buy in first red after big pump and you will w8 for next pump (if it will happend).

Currently whole market is at the bottom and its bouncing. This bounce will end sooner or later. If later you will post here day by day your profit. If sooner you will end baghold all 3000$ which will be worth 300$ next 3 months.

If something is one of top looser means that:

1- its shitcoin without volume and even 1 investor exiting needs to dump it or he will be selling for months
2- realy bad news - if only fud it may bounce if not (and your strategy dont check that) it will never bounce
3- it was best gainers last day - you buy next day after huge pump. in 90% cases next few days will be on red too or after small bounce (first day profit) it will continue to drop till price beafore pump

Exception is market bottom or shortterm marketbottom where you will profit for few days like now.

Your GO coin is down day by day. Its down 20% now from your buy zone. Wanna know why? Because it was pumped 250 % on kucoin before entering binance. And you bought on the top of that pump anfer first red. It was warth 430 sat before that pump and perhaps it will go back to that price or even lower. Only bullish market can stop it from falling 30% more. And even if it will stop it you will have much lower ROI that Bitcoin. What makes your strategy useless.

If you still want to continue with this strategy at liest try to avoid shitcoins and add a little more effort to check if there is any syrious reason for drop.

edit:
I had extra time so i found 3 more:





SNM is good example. You buy on first big red (top looser) and sell on first big green where SNM was top gainer on the bounce few months later, you sell but still on loss (even selling on top on top gaining coin that day). If you will miss that point or you will decide to hodl till profit, you are on 80% loss.




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September 14, 2018, 12:06:18 PM
 #9

I pray that your Binance account won't get blocked or banned,after you deposit a few thousand dollars worth of cryptocurrencies.We all know what the crypto exchange platforms are capable of,in order to get our hard earned money.Your strategy seems extremely risky.I would never buy crashed altcoins and HODL them for a long time.Many of those altcoins won't survive the crash and they will stay cheap forever.

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September 14, 2018, 12:21:49 PM
 #10

Interesting idea but I'd only do it in a neutral or rising market and only with coins at a certain level above the absolute junk. There are now nearing two thousand coins and many will dwindle to total irrelevance. There's no way of knowing where Bitcoin is going to stop, let alone all the filth it has spawned.


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September 14, 2018, 12:28:36 PM
 #11

Interesting idea but I'd only do it in a neutral or rising market and only with coins at a certain level above the absolute junk. There are now nearing two thousand coins and many will dwindle to total irrelevance. There's no way of knowing where Bitcoin is going to stop, let alone all the filth it has spawned.



Agree, that might work but it also does not mean that always work and is good strategy, also when you take lots of factors into consideration that's not a good strategy at all. It is very risky.
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September 14, 2018, 01:34:16 PM
 #12

I'm very much interested in the results of this strategy. However, I can advise you that to BTFD, there should be a bull market. You may want to use a bull market filter (i.e. price being above 200-day EMA). Otherwise, as someone else pointed out, the coin you are seeking might be in a bear market, which you should STFT (sell the effin to).

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September 15, 2018, 01:02:11 AM
 #13

That's a good one. I think this strategy would work. Am waiting to hear your testimony and I would definitely give it a trial and see if it can work.
I am also interested and want to hear the continuation of this post but I still don't know when this posting owner added his strategy to be distributed to the residents of this forum
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September 15, 2018, 06:39:52 PM
 #14

Since you are buying the dips and holding anyway, I would not say you already have your plan as an investor and not necessarily a trader, but you also have to understand that this plan may not work out well for the altcoin market, as even the one with the less % in 24 hours can still go much more lower in percentage loss for you.

Moreover I am still very curious though as everything sounds so simple and logically, if the market gets to behave well in the long term might be good, but in the short term; it is still a high risk to be taking without a stop loss. Like I said though, it is good you have your plan and you are executing it to see if it would pay you, so I will be monitoring your thread to see how that works out for you. Good luck!
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September 16, 2018, 10:16:01 AM
 #15

BTFD - buy the f**king dip. First red (impuls) is not the dip. It may be short term dip (few hours) but for sure not long term dip. Here is example:



I can find many more if you like. That day bad news came and sky was the most loosing coin(your buy zone).
This strategy wont work my friend because its based on "i dont know how to do TA or FA so ill create strategy out of nowhere and see if it works". Just understand this - you buy coin based on its few hour performance not for its next few hour performance (what would be somehow understandable but also not optimal) but for hodl long term till next pump (beeing top gainer). In most cases you will buy in first red after big pump and you will w8 for next pump (if it will happend).

Currently whole market is at the bottom and its bouncing. This bounce will end sooner or later. If later you will post here day by day your profit. If sooner you will end baghold all 3000$ which will be worth 300$ next 3 months.

If something is one of top looser means that:

1- its shitcoin without volume and even 1 investor exiting needs to dump it or he will be selling for months
2- realy bad news - if only fud it may bounce if not (and your strategy dont check that) it will never bounce
3- it was best gainers last day - you buy next day after huge pump. in 90% cases next few days will be on red too or after small bounce (first day profit) it will continue to drop till price beafore pump

Exception is market bottom or shortterm marketbottom where you will profit for few days like now.

Your GO coin is down day by day. Its down 20% now from your buy zone. Wanna know why? Because it was pumped 250 % on kucoin before entering binance. And you bought on the top of that pump anfer first red. It was warth 430 sat before that pump and perhaps it will go back to that price or even lower. Only bullish market can stop it from falling 30% more. And even if it will stop it you will have much lower ROI that Bitcoin. What makes your strategy useless.

If you still want to continue with this strategy at liest try to avoid shitcoins and add a little more effort to check if there is any syrious reason for drop.

edit:
I had extra time so i found 3 more:





SNM is good example. You buy on first big red (top looser) and sell on first big green where SNM was top gainer on the bounce few months later, you sell but still on loss (even selling on top on top gaining coin that day). If you will miss that point or you will decide to hodl till profit, you are on 80% loss.





This is a good way to slap him the truth about trading in a technical side but his basis is more like speculation type so be it, its his own bias. Who knows the ones he chose might not be like the ones shown above. It's not always applicable with every trade. So just go with it and go all in with your proven system. As they say, "Follow the system that works."

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September 16, 2018, 01:51:56 PM
 #16

This is a good way to slap him the truth about trading in a technical side but his basis is more like speculation type so be it, its his own bias. Who knows the ones he chose might not be like the ones shown above. It's not always applicable with every trade. So just go with it and go all in with your proven system. As they say, "Follow the system that works."
My intentions was only to inform that guy that this is not strategy. Creating something like that AND INVESTING INTO THIS 3000$ is simplest way to loose it.

"Who knows the ones he chose might not be like the ones shown above." -There is small chance that fallowing this strategy will succed in profit but it wont be due to awesomeness of strategy but pure luck. He can also buy every mondey coins that start with letter M and fridey coins that starts with F. Or simply put everything is random coin if luck is the only thing that can save him wallowing this strategy.

To OP:

If you create any strategy out of nowhere simply look at some charts and analize how its ended in the past. Biggest looser means huge red candle. What % of coins recover in short/middle term creating huge green candle (top gainer)? 5%? And you choose hardest and most risky strategy which is holding (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4456137.msg39881422#msg39881422 risk in holding and trading strategy).



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September 18, 2018, 08:51:06 AM
 #17

Definitely interested. Will it work? I don't know. But I'm definitely interested on how this will pan out.

Just to add though, not because a certain coin/token is in Binance it doesn't automatically mean that the coin/token is actually good or reputable. What if the reason that the coin/token dropped in price is because the project did a scam quit or if the project went bankrupt or something? Fundamentals should still play a role here. Just my 2 satoshis.
The truth is that no one knows if this will work or not, but at least, it is an experiment and it is worth the try, It would work if the market tend to pick up pretty much but since all he is doing is more like buying the dip and holding, I guess in some way he may really be lucky buying the real dip and in some cases, trust me, with the way most especially the altcoin market is, you may end up not actually buying the dip and you may go a lot lower within a short period of time.

I am still a lot curious to see how this would be for the OP, and I believe time will tell.
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October 02, 2018, 08:26:04 AM
 #18

Interesting idea, share your results with us.

For better consistency of your trading routine you will probably need to set a certain time when you evaluate the biggest negative 24hr % and put your buy order. Furthermore, consider some "plan B" for exiting from your positions. You may miss profit because some coin will perform slightly worse than all other but it could still make you x times of your buy price.  

I will check the prices the first thing I wake up in the morning. But I can't say for certain when exactly. Sometimes I wake up at 6am, sometimes 7 or 8am. I could check the prices on that certain time but I would like to make it as "real life" as possible and most people do not religiously do something the exact time every day.

I think an exit strategy could be applied and is very likely profitable, you could try it in your setup but for now I would like to try a extreme contrarian approach. The only exit is when the coin reaches the highest 24hr % returns for all alts. Risk are mitigated by adding small positions per day which will result in holding various coins. Anyway, day 3 results are below, RDN went bananas on the 2nd day and became the largest % returns for all alts on 2nd day after being the biggest loser on the 1st, therefore I sold all RDN to tether as per my strategy and would add in to my $100 daily investment spread across the next 30 days. Right now results are very impressive, although its mostly due to RDN going crazy. GoChain profited a few dollars.

Day 3:
DATE   CAPITAL INVESTED/EARNED   COIN   AMT BOUGHT   AMT SOLD
12th Sep   -$100                               RDN        270.74   
13th Sep   -$100                               GO          2195.43   
13th Sep   $142.75                            RDN                            270.74
14th Sep   -$104.75                           GO          2457.42   

HOLDINGS   
GO   4652.85
TETHER   $138.00 (-$4.75 reinvested in GO)

TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTED   $300
CURRENT VALUE   $341.97


Btw, if you like my strategy and updates, if possible do spare me some BTCs, even few dollars would be good:
BTC: 15ZHGBtE6V9r28HT1nFnoPfsB8UspsM6Di

Good results for such a short period of time. How did you perform during the rest of September? There were some price spikes so I hope you exited on time  Wink

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