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Author Topic: Introducing Arepo's Weekly Newsletter  (Read 1627 times)
arepo
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March 06, 2014, 04:26:18 PM
 #1

Hello fellow speculators! after a brief hiatus during the month of February, i am once again back in bitcoin business Smiley

To kick off this trading season, i'd like to launch a weekly newsletter featuring the same kind of analysis i periodically posted to the forums in January. for those of you unfamiliar with my work, you can get a feel for my techniques here and here. i have been active on this subforum for about two and a half years now, and during that time i have tested and honed various methods for anticipating bitcoin price behavior. my academic background is in Physics and Mathematics, both fields which have influenced my work.

I make extensive use of technical indicators, the complete list of those which i have found particularly useful behavior being:

    -Accumulation/Distribution and Chaikin Oscillator
    -Aroon and Aroon Oscillator
    -Chaikin Money Flow
    -MACD
    -Price Volume Transform
    -Average Directional Index
    -RSI
    -Money Flow Index
    -William's Oscillator
    -Stochastic RSI
    -Commodity Channel Index
    -Detrended Price Oscillator
    -TRIX
    -Ultimate Oscillator
    -Bollinger Band Width
    -Mass Index
    -Rate of Change
    -Slow Stochastic Oscillator

For short-term predictions, i also largely focus on direct price analysis, using a fractal model similar to Elliot Waves to make weighted predictions about price behavior based upon consistent patterns in historical price data. my trading is also generally informed by a number of concepts and equations from the realm of classical physics, like the damped oscillator behavior that occurs in the price function after large movements.

The newsletter will be mainly directed towards new speculators who may not fully understand how to interpret the various indicators available at resources like bitcoincharts.com, with full explanations of my own interpretations accompanied by specific price targets and signals which will help you make more informed trading decisions in the future, as well as profit from my own observations in the meantime!

For more experienced traders, the newsletter will hopefully provide an alternate perspective to corroborate or challenge your own models and predictions, as stress-testing and second-guessing is the only empirical way to improve your techniques!

To address the wide range of users in this subforum, I am offering three pricing tiers:

0.025 BTC for 1 week (1 issue)
ideal for casual traders and anyone unfamiliar with my work, for a one-time report to get a feel for the publication

0.085 BTC for 1 month (4 issues discounted)

0.3 BTC for 4 months (16 issues, 4 issues free)

The newsletter will be sent out on Mondays, between 9 am and 12 pm EST. any future changes to this schedule will be posted.

Please feel free to post questions, comments, or requests for clarification in this thread. for those interested, you may send payment to the address in my signature [18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz] in the following format: 0.30000012 where the last two digits serves as an ID. then PM me with your email address and your ID to confirm payment. i will add your username and your subscription to a list that i will update at the end of this post to complete the subscription confirmation process. the report will be sent out via email in pdf format each Monday, and a separate thread which i will open on this forum will serve as a platform for discussion, feedback, other general commentary, and alerts.

I look forward to sharing my work with you all in this format! in the past, i have only published individual reports so i am excited to be starting a newsletter and look forward to working with you all during what i anticipate will be a very exciting bitcoin spring!

--arepo

P.S. I have two other projects in the works which i will pursue if there is interest. for longer-term traders for whom the above arrangement may not be what you're looking for, i can prepare a single-issue report outlining my general expectations for the 4-month period. obviously my weekly updates will have the advantage of precision, but for traders who mostly hold, longer-term signals might be preferred. if you are interested in this kind of report, let me know in this thread as well as what you would consider a fair price. with this feedback, i can determine if i will be able to pursue this project in tandem, and publish it in the following weeks.

The other project i have considered is a daily newsletter for daytraders. this would follow the same format as the weekly newsletter i am launching, but focus on much shorter-term daily signals to help traders anticipate daily price action. i am not sure if there is enough interest to make a daily newsletter worthwhile, but if there is significant demand, i may be able to run this as well. again, let me know in this thread, and i will determine if i can provide this service.

-----

Subscriber List: (last updated 09/03 14:29 EST)

oda.krell -- 16 issues (expires week of 23 June)
docile -- 16 issues (expires week of 23 June)
John999 -- 4 issues (expires week of 31 March)
kramerc -- 4 issues (expires week of 31 March)
iron77 -- 4 issues (expires week of 31 March)
kwest -- 4 issues (expires week of 31 March)
jlin -- 16 issues (expires week of 23 June)
CoinBurner -- 4 issues (expires week of 31 March)

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March 06, 2014, 04:56:11 PM
 #2

Hey arepo. Welcome back :)

Glad to see you're launching that newsletter that you mentioned before. I enjoyed your previous posts in here a lot, and I can say already that I'll sign up for the 4 month subscription right away under one condition: weekly newsletter is good enough for me, as I try to limit my trades to one or two per weeks at most, but sometimes bigger events can make it necessary to update your analysis.

Say, for example the week before the 400 USD bottom. A newsletter on Monday could have described the general outlook and downtrend, but I'm pretty sure an update would have been necessary a) when gox officially filed for bankruptcy protection, and b) when we hit 400, in what appears to be a mid term bottom.

I would hope that, even for those who order the weekly newsletter, such short term updates could be made available without extra cost. Is this something you can see yourself doing for the subscribers?

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet to use? Take a look at Electrum.
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: user friendly, fast, and guaranteed to keep your coins safe.
Get the executables (Windows, OSX, Linux, Android), source code and documentation on the Electrum homepage.
arepo
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March 06, 2014, 05:40:44 PM
 #3

Hey arepo. Welcome back Smiley

Glad to see you're launching that newsletter that you mentioned before. I enjoyed your previous posts in here a lot, and I can say already that I'll sign up for the 4 month subscription right away under one condition: weekly newsletter is good enough for me, as I try to limit my trades to one or two per weeks at most, but sometimes bigger events can make it necessary to update your analysis.

Say, for example the week before the 400 USD bottom. A newsletter on Monday could have described the general outlook and downtrend, but I'm pretty sure an update would have been necessary a) when gox officially filed for bankruptcy protection, and b) when we hit 400, in what appears to be a mid term bottom.

I would hope that, even for those who order the weekly newsletter, such short term updates could be made available without extra cost. Is this something you can see yourself doing for the subscribers?

i apologise, i intended to make that clear in the OP.

in the event that the model i present on Monday is invalidated by a market perturbation like the MtGox fiasco, or simply general price behavior that falsifies the model in some way, i will send out an update as quickly as possible and post an alert in the corresponding thread.

in fact, i will likely post a short midweek follow-up commentary most weeks, to be found in the thread, as i want this service to be as comprehensive as possible and it is likely that some specifics will have to be clarified as the price action plays out as opposed to attempting to make a prediction on Monday to a precision that may not be empirically possible. for example, i may outline a pattern to be followed with approximate price targets, and then comment on our progression through the pattern if there is any ambiguity.

in any event, the subscribers will definitely be informed if my own personal model changes in any way from the one that is presented to them on Monday.

good question!

--arepo

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oda.krell
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March 06, 2014, 05:53:48 PM
 #4

Thanks for the clarification.

One follow up: do you have a minimum number of subscribers in mind? I mean, I hope a lot of people will sign up for it, but is there a lower bound you want to reach for it to be worth your time? If so, do you have a backup plan in case you don't reach that number?

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet to use? Take a look at Electrum.
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: user friendly, fast, and guaranteed to keep your coins safe.
Get the executables (Windows, OSX, Linux, Android), source code and documentation on the Electrum homepage.
arepo
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March 06, 2014, 06:13:00 PM
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Thanks for the clarification.

One follow up: do you have a minimum number of subscribers in mind? I mean, I hope a lot of people will sign up for it, but is there a lower bound you want to reach for it to be worth your time? If so, do you have a backup plan in case you don't reach that number?

i don't have a minimum in mind, although i intentionally underpriced the service to encourage some of the newbies and lurkers who are only trading with a small amount of capital to sign on and hopefully learn a little and better their trading strategies. for my last report, a lot of these users came out of the woodwork for the opportunity.

that being said, since i will be doing the analysis anyway for my own trading purposes, it really will not amount to too much additional work. i anticipate it will actually help my own rigor because i will be forced to present it in publishable form, as opposed to simply notes, and it will be similar to what i was posting publicly on the forums in January.

in other words, i am confident that i will be able to launch and provide this service for any number of subscribers, and i also anticipate that the feedback and commentary in the corresponding thread will help me pick up new subscribers in the coming weeks and months.

--arepo

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oda.krell
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March 06, 2014, 06:31:28 PM
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Sounds good. Will transfer the amount/sign up later tonight.

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet to use? Take a look at Electrum.
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: user friendly, fast, and guaranteed to keep your coins safe.
Get the executables (Windows, OSX, Linux, Android), source code and documentation on the Electrum homepage.
arepo
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March 06, 2014, 06:34:56 PM
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Sounds good. Will transfer the amount/sign up later tonight.

thanks for being the first subscriber Smiley

i've got an errand to run, but i'll be back within a couple of hours to check for additional questions or pending confirmations.

--arepo

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March 06, 2014, 10:11:16 PM
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I must say that I have missed your input during february, and thus am contemplating on subscribing. Though the service is a bit pricey for me and my trading capital, I guess if it helps me improve my profitability then it's worth it.
arepo
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March 06, 2014, 10:50:49 PM
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I must say that I have missed your input during february, and thus am contemplating on subscribing. Though the service is a bit pricey for me and my trading capital, I guess if it helps me improve my profitability then it's worth it.

i apologise if i priced this service out of your range, although i am happy to hear you valued my input in January. i tried my best to balance the time investment with a tiered pricing scheme to reach out to a wider range of trading capital.

i would suggest signing up for the single-week option for the newsletter due Monday, 10 March, and see how well it informs your trading. i am hoping that the format will not only help your profitability for the course of the week, but also generally inform your skills regarding the interpretation of the various data i focus on. it may be a sound investment in your trading knowledge even if you don't renew your subscription for the following week.

also, i will still be commenting on the forums from time to time, so even if you decide against it, i'm more than happy to add my two cents for the sake of discussion in the forum Smiley

of course, i plan on continuing to accept new subscriptions at later dates, so i hope that after some solid trading you will be able to increase your capital to the point where you feel comfortable signing on.

--arepo

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arepo
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March 07, 2014, 03:21:39 PM
 #10

Good morning all! i hope everyone is enjoying watching the market's response to last Monday's $100 spike -- mostly sideways consolidation, but we're dangerously close to testing the support at $630 today, hovering just slightly above. i wouldn't expect too much action for the tail-end of this week, but if we break under the $630 support we can expect a retracement to the next level around $600.

---

http://i.imgur.com/LeaVQgP.png
---

Thanks again to the four users who have already signed onto the newsletter, and i'm looking forward to at least a few more before its official launch on Monday, 10 March. as always, feel free to post any questions, comments, or concerns below and i'll be happy to address them.

--arepo

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March 08, 2014, 12:00:21 PM
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good to see you back arepo man!

I've been lookin forward to sending you a little donation - your last set of analyses from around the turn of the year helped inform some of my trading decisions and aided me in keeping my patience in check before buying back in with the last of my fiat. Luckily rpetila's thread kept me further in check in your absence.

will pm you now

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arepo
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March 09, 2014, 03:02:32 PM
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good to see you back arepo man!

I've been lookin forward to sending you a little donation - your last set of analyses from around the turn of the year helped inform some of my trading decisions and aided me in keeping my patience in check before buying back in with the last of my fiat. Luckily rpetila's thread kept me further in check in your absence.

will pm you now

thanks! Smiley it's great to hear the work i was publishing in January was helpful to you.

-----

as for the price, we saw a nice bounce off of the support around $600, as detailed in my previous post. again, i don't expect too much action during the weekend.

also, today is the last day before the launch of the newsletter, so if you don't want to miss out on the outline for this week, don't hesitate to sign up! this week's issue is available for 0.025 BTC. larger subscriptions are priced in the OP. check it out!

--arepo

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arepo
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March 09, 2014, 06:32:37 PM
 #13

two more subscriptions from kwest and jlin today just confirmed. thanks for the support Smiley

--arepo

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March 09, 2014, 06:36:04 PM
 #14

No problem. I look forward to the first newsletter.
I remember enjoying your posts before you took off for a while.. I was gonna donate then but never did, so it's about time.
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March 09, 2014, 09:45:30 PM
 #15

No problem. I look forward to the first newsletter.
I remember enjoying your posts before you took off for a while.. I was gonna donate then but never did, so it's about time.

no problem! it's really unfortunate that i haven't been able to maintain a more consistent presence on the forums in the past, due to bitcoin-external responsibilities, but that's why i am happy to see the newsletter's popularity. your support has made it possible for me to dedicate my efforts for the next four months, at least.

--arepo


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