Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year?

[philipma1957]

me and buysolar did well

only wish was to have done it bigger.

and to have cashed out better  although we cashed most of our coins out above 13000.

This allows us to not worry about much as long as we don't fold it all back in.

so we are 184 blocks behind  and if diff drops to 4.9 or 5.0  that is around 35,500,000,000 to 36,400,000,000 hash

we may follow up   with the dec 19 to jan 4 with  4.7 diff and 34,000,000,000 hash a -2 to -5% drop

The bottom  is looking like 34,000,000,000 gh and 4.7 diff

if that is accurate

a 4 cent guy  with a s-9

earns 27 a month at a diff of 5.6 and a price of 3488
earns 35 a month at a diff of 4.9 and a price of 3488
earns 40 a month at a diff of 4.7 and a price of 3488

do that downward diff allows for  a lot more  price drop .

I figure 25,000,000,000 of the remaining 37,000,000,000 gh is 4 cents or better

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[Norm MacDonald]

Thanks, I got in through Firefox. just bypassed the security warning. I imagine the "real time" updates might be messing up the security certificate verification's. The spread is tightening between -12.8% and 10.5% with a marked downward bias. The trend is still firmly lower. I suppose it's possible to hit -13.00% or a bit lower on next jump.

[tmfp]

I wonder how many S9's will be brought back on stream now that Bitmain's cloud mining setup is dangling some very attractive short term carrots under people's noses?

[Steamtyme]

I dont see this putting to many miners back online. If it were in any way profitable for them to run the gear then they would do it themselves. Then there's the fact that cloud mining generally brings in the newbies, but this market usbt bringing to manu of those along these days. They're about 15 months to late to really soak up profits with a cloud mine. I would also assume they are going to be using there current generation miners because they are stuck with them

Rough price with no tax is about 175 a month for the 50 TH package. That's including the 5 dollars daily for maintenance.

Just like any cloud mining you only gain if the price shoots up down the road and you hold until then.

Either way I cant are it being enough to really affect the overall network hash, really looking forward to another double digit drop - 12% is looking good.

[Norm MacDonald]

I wonder how many S9's will be brought back on stream now that Bitmain's cloud mining setup is dangling some very attractive short term carrots under people's noses?

I looked at their "carrot". It didn't seem attractive? The disclaimer alone was enough to get me to click "exit". The terms are only good for that very second basically. Profitability is very much in question.

[tmfp]

Total disclaimer here: I am not, and never have been, a clouding fan or advocate. But

Rough price with no tax is about 175 a month for the 50 TH package. That's including the 5 dollars daily for maintenance.

Are we looking at the same thing, or am I being stupid?

They are charging $0.49/TH/month.
50TH costs $24.50 for a month, at current price/difficulty mines $233.69 per month minus $195 maintenance ($0.13/T/Day*30*50), gives $38.69 back, = $14.19 profit = 58% roi.

IF my sums are right, then the next question must be: why are a huge company essentially borrowing money at Payday Loan rates?

[philipma1957]

the fees are

13 cents a th a day

so 30 days = $3.90 a th x 14 = $54.60 to run an s-9

or

if you do 100 th

13 usd a day  that is 390 a month for 7 s-9's and a one time fee of 49 usd

so the first month is 439 for 100 th

you could earn around 0.1336 btc which is 464.60 first month.

this means one thing to me bitmain is betting on a massive short here.

so  they get a sure 439 in btc and cash it out right away because they are thinking in 1 month coins = under 3000

[tmfp]

if you do 100 th

13 usd a day  that is 390 a month for 7 s-9's and a one time fee of 49 usd

so the first month is 439 for 100 th

Alloscomp says 100TH will get you $467 at current difficulty, so that's $77 income net of maintenance against an initial cost of $49, $28 profit, 58% ROI.

That's a very attractive return to throw a couple of grand at in current conditions.
My initial point was not to shill for cloud mining but to ask where the hashrate would come from if they attracted, say, a couple of million dollars investment. At $0.49 Th, $2m would account for over 4m TH.


Just saw the conclusion you added there Phil

this means one thing to me bitmain is betting on a massive short here.
so  they get a sure 439 in btc and cash it out right away because they are thinking in 1 month coins = under 3000

Yes, that makes sense.
Also, of course, it would make sense if their short bet was based on something they were about to do anyway, like dumping BTC for liquidity reasons.
Maybe it won't be such a quiet Christmas and New year after all.

[Norm MacDonald]

Bitmain owed Their chip supplier 1 billion $ and only came up with $700, M still owe $300 M. They also have very large CAPX commitments to mining ops in USA and Canada. The ole IPO won't go so well with a negative balance sheet. Bitmain is "Scrambling".


Looks to be bottoming out. This am, looking at between -11.6% to -10.5%. Seems some of the cheap hardware is making it's way back onto the network in anticipation of this drop. Gonna be tough to get a double digit move this time I would guess.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   5,646,403,851,534
Estimated Next Difficulty:   5,028,184,686,250 (-10.95%)
Adjust time:   After 606 Blocks, About 4.8 days
Hashrate(?):   36,394,443,778 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.4 minutes
3 blocks: 34.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

[stompix]

If the price goes down, the s15 are not yet delivered but the diff shows any kind of up movement I could point to only one "culprit" and that would be bitdeer.
And if there is any kind of confirmations they are indeed the ones putting gear back online I'm going to simply ignore everything about mining.

Probably this would be the rotten strawberry on a disgusting icing on a 20 years old cake.

[philipma1957]

sure thing they wipeout hash nest and create bitdeer.

well  think if they put back  enough s-9's  right after this jump  they can make them turn from a small winner to a small loser and just say the gear is losing $$  we will have to shut down.

I could sit and explain this exactly and I think I will.

we went from 53,000,000,000 and will soon be at 36,000,000,000 in 4 days

So let us say that is 17,000,000,000 gh drop or a 17,000,000 th drop

so they will be charging 13 a day for 100 th.  so pay for a month 30 x 13 = 390 + 49 = 439  you pay in cold hard cash/btc

lets say they sell 2,000,000 th that is 20,000 contract for 100 th or 439 x 20,000 = 8,780,000 usd up front.

lets us pretend they use s15's to run this s15's cost say 50 watts a th that is 1.2 kwatts at 4 cents that is 4.8 cents

so their cost is 4.8 cents

they charge 13 cents they make  8.2 cents a day on every th they sell  and they get it up front for the first month.

plus the buy in  of 49 usd for 100 th.

Worse yet since they base the cost at 13 cents  if diff jumps and coins tank  they can shut you down after 15 bad days in a row.

simply no good.

[Norm MacDonald]

This seems to be a highly probable scenario. Same Sh*t, different flies. Unfortunately there is no shortage of " HODL Monkeys " still jumping around to flock to this same old Cloud mining scheme with a different name. Clearly price lows are not in yet and there is not enough pain has been doled out. Oh well, back into the bunker...

Diff low side creeping up 1/2 % a day now. Looks like only a 6% drop in Diff Tuesday. Bitmain strikes again.

[Steamtyme]

Are we looking at the same thing, or am I being stupid?

IF my sums are right, then the next question must be: why are a huge company essentially borrowing money at Payday Loan rates?

No you weren't being stupid at all. There is definitely the best chance at earning a profit from a cloud mining operation available there. At least for 1 month, and even then it isn't guaranteed as we've seen recently no one really knows where the bottom is ATM, or the direction of travel for price.

As has been shown the profit margin is thin - I see the maintenance costs as part of the initial investment as it is a predetermined cost and may be payable up front. For Bitmain though it is cash money in hand now, which may be more important than what you may have next month. That's especially true if as has been speculated here, they have plans to do something they are projecting will cause a price drop.

sure thing they wipeout hash nest and create bitdeer.

Re branding with discounted rates in the beginning is a good strategy to get people in the door.

... Looks like only a 6% drop in Diff Tuesday. Bitmain strikes again.

Yikes Hadn't checked in a couple days; when we were still double digits, either way down is down and I like that.

See I'm torn on what Bitmain and their cloud mining operations are doing to the network at the moment/near future. I don't pay much attention to cloud mining but seeing as they had been running hashnest, what impact are they really going to have with Bitdeer, apart from my thoughts on rebranding. It's just the same shit under a different name, unless it's a totally new facility and infrastructure in addition to previous facilities.

I would say the overall increase in hashrate that will come from Bitmain, is to run their own S15's, they can improve their overall efficiencies keeping their cost the same while increasing the hashrate. We all pay the price in Diff probably having found a floor of support, with low cost massive farms. I'm not sure what they are paying but I have heard crazy low numbers like .02/KWH.

[philipma1957]

I think we are still  closer to 9% not 6%

Current Pace:   89.1811%  (1510 / 1693.18 expected, 183.18 behind)
Current Difficulty:   5646403851534.721XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 5039399360183 and 5073760686945
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.7503% and -10.1417%
Previous Retarget:   December 3, 2018 at 6:46 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 8:58 PM  (in 3d 19h 59m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 11:32 PM  (in 3d 22h 33m 50s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 14h 11m 36s and 15d 16h 45m 41s

Note: I use firefox to open the site as the certificate is expired.  Be careful if you do not know how to do this.
We are 183 blocks off pace that is the number to watch.

Look  truth is we don't see bitmain's books.  For 2017 or 2018

they may have made as much as 20 billion usd in 2017

yeah they lost  in 2017  maybe 1.5 billion

that  would mean plus 18.5 billion

It may not be that good.

So say they cleared 10 billion last year  and cashed tons of coins dropping prices  this whole year. For a loss of 2 billion.
that is a net of 8 billion.

They could have a big cash stash for all we know.  And be poised to make a monster move.

[DaCryptoRaccoon]

Last 7 days:




High - 44 exahashesPerSecond
Low -  31 exahashesPerSecond

[Norm MacDonald]

I think we are still  closer to 9% not 6%

[...]

Thanks for the warning Phil. I think your Bitmain revenue numbers are off. They touted inflated numbers at 4 Billion last year. AMD didn't make that much since their inception. I found $4 billion highly suspect. So given the mess they've created, I strongly believe that Bitmain is extremely close to insolvency. Jihan Wu and his "fight to the death" for BCH, likely was referring to his own death. There is little question  that Bitmain was/is a LARGE holder of BTC/BCH. I'm willing to bet that they have lost 50% of their liquid assets in this. It would explain this harebrained Bitdeer illusion. Too bad there are people stupid enough to get back in bed with them. This looks like desperation to me on Bitmain's part. SO many metrics working against them now. They definitely deserve it.

[philipma1957]

yeah  I clocked them at 135,000 btc Jan 2017  so 135,000 x 950 = 128,250,000

If they held everyone of those coins from jan 2017 to dec 2017

they would have  both btc and bch  value of 1 of each was about 22,000 dec 2017

so 22,000/950 =  23 fold on the coins

or 128,250,000 x 23 = 2,970,000,000   

that is under a 2.85 billion profit

and it is saying perfect holding action of the coins they had jan 2017

with sale in dec 2017

now there was a good drop on dec 7 2017 coins were over 18k and a big sell dropped to 13.7

coins went up to 20,035 on dec 17 dropped to 12.2k on dec 18th

they went to 16.7 k on  dec 27 dropped to 12.9k on dec 30

17k on jan 6 2018 dropped to 10k on jan 17

so 4 big dumps made then how much was bitmain?

[agente]

Here Bitmain launched Bitdeer! Interesting..

[philipma1957]

well just because the bet does not favor the player many like the idea of no gear no heat etc.

and they hope to get lucky.

hash wise the move is 35,000,000,000 to 38,500,000,000 gh

that is 3,500,000,000gh or

3500000000/14000 = 250,000 s-9's

3,500,000,000/20,000 = 175,000 s-11's

3,500,000,000/40,000 = 87,500 s-15's

it is also 3,500,000 th

so say 3,000,000th is bitdeer

3000000/100 = 30,000  100th contracts for 439 or $13,170,000  in btc that they simply cashed out fast.

zero risk to them

coins were about 3400  and now about 3229  due to the selling pressure they made

and it goes on.

[Norm MacDonald]

I have no doubt about this. I watched their order flows on my trading platform as I was constantly focusing on some Yield enhancement trades I work on. Their footprint is so obvious. They are not very clever or strategic in their order executions. First of all, most of these "Block Type" orders are on the platforms during the daylight hours in China. Second, they put very large "block sell" orders in at a price to insure that they are in "maker" order status. This allows them to execute at low to no fees. Obviously this means they must rely on a buyer to lift their resting offer. When these " on the offer orders" do not trade, they simply chase the market down and continually adjust their offer price lower. Always with the remainder of the un-executed volume of the original offer. I, and I'm sure many other experienced traders that are much larger than me, just wait and watch until these fools chase the market into resting bids well below where they started trying to sell. As soon as I see real bid side volume appear I just race in front of that and get long. 9 times out of 10 it's a free trade. Once Bitmain's large offer is executed, there is nothing but air on the offer side for $20, $50, sometimes $100 in upside price. Try it some time. You'll be amazed. I could literally retire off the terrible execution Bitmain employs, on one day of their sell orders. They waste $100's of thousands of dollars daily ( Nightly ) as a result of their amateur trading stupidity.