Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year?

[philipma1957]

Found this puppy using google
every btc jump ever made

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DQYQOLsB-pJWGu5e8CXF4vkxdYHEJDOyxQptBmC_030/edit#gid=0

On nov 5th 2014  we did 10.05% Jump

the whole net work had 283,116,151 Ghash a diff of 40,300,030,328

on may 31st 2015 we did a -2.50% Jump

the whole network was 340,659,562 gh  a diff of 47,589,591,154

total of 14 jumps or 28 weeks  and we did about 1.12% for those jumps

We are close to those margins  so do we do 1.12% a jump over the next 28 jumps?

could this repeat as it did between  nov 2014 and late may 2015?

Here we are  from bitcoinwisdom

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History

Date.................Difficulty.................   Change....   Hash Rate
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s
Aug 11 2018   6,389,316,883,511   7.39%   45,736,511,764 GH/s
Jul 29 2018   5,949,437,371,609   14.88%   42,587,731,568 GH/s
Jul 17 2018   5,178,671,069,072   -3.45%   37,070,371,464 GH/s

hash would be 62,369,646,904

diff would be   8,712,939,020,023

based on this projection  the s9j  would earn 41 cents a day  28 weeks from now  if price stays the same and power is 7 cents

at 8 cents it earns   9 cents a day

and it loses at 0.084 cents a day

[1713856567]

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[1713856567]

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[MoparMiningLLC]

I hope the S9 stays profitable for at least that long lol just starting to making ROI now lol

but in all seriousness it seems that with so many people jumping in on mining that the difficulty is raising faster than manufacturers can produce equipment that would prove profitable.

at least that is my opinion.

[philipma1957]

I hope the S9 stays profitable for at least that long lol just starting to making ROI now lol

but in all seriousness it seems that with so many people jumping in on mining that the difficulty is raising faster than manufacturers can produce equipment that would prove profitable.

at least that is my opinion.

well we near  the 4 cent floor  which is the average power cost for the big boys.

It has happened before and when it did the diff dropped off for a while.

[fanatic26_]

It has happened before and when it did the diff dropped off for a while.

Except now there are more large farms coming on line than ever, it wont flatten out its going to continue to rise steadily. I know a few hundred megawatts worth of places going online in the next few months alone.

[MoparMiningLLC]

well we near  the 4 cent floor  which is the average power cost for the big boys.

It has happened before and when it did the diff dropped off for a while.

and here i am just trying to get the power company to give me the transformer i need but with looking at the upcoming difficulty levels - unless miners get more efficient, I might be upside down when I am ready to offer co-location services...

[philipma1957]

Except now there are more large farms coming on line than ever, it wont flatten out its going to continue to rise steadily. I know a few hundred megawatts worth of places going online in the next few months alone.

Well  I get that it is finally going big guys only at the moment .

And since 70 watt gear exists such as the m10 growth can continue for a while.

but an m10 at 3% growth  and 70 watts a th goes red in 600 days

that is with 4 cent power.

So lets say the s11 does 55watts  40 th at 2100 watts  at 4 cents it redlines at  700 days with 3% a jump.

So realistically what happens?
I did read huge windmills in Africa doing 2 cent power was possible.

[fanatic26_]

Forecasting has been and always will be a fools errand when it comes to this industry. There are just too many variables to break it down into simple numbers like you are doing in your post. While its true if things stay static, the outlook is bleak but I highly doubt that will stay that way for long.

[philipma1957]

Forecasting has been and always will be a fools errand when it comes to this industry. There are just too many variables to break it down into simple numbers like you are doing in your post. While its true if things stay static, the outlook is bleak but I highly doubt that will stay that way for long.

I don't bother with long term except when we go low margin like now.

As I agree it is a fool's errand.

Plus game always was cheap power + cheap gear = winner.

lots of cheap gear right now  and if you have cheap power this is a good time for you.

I know you have good power prices.

[Steamtyme]

Barring any big spikes in price I'd say we are going to keep going around this ~ 4% increase we've been seeing for the last little while.

Any significant spike in price will throw that off.

I was wondering though how much hashrate will come on once it gets cold for some people. Myself my 741's are moving inside to become BTC making space heaters and I'm sure there are lots of like minded dividuals out there, who may have had machines offline.

[minefarmbuy]

Gear is at good prices so big or small will gear up. If the s9 thrives a little longer so be it. I imagine, like others do, diff will grow. Sideways only if stability of market drops but 6k pricing has endured well and is expected to continue. Since lower market will drive buying BTC, stability will continue even with a dip. What is hurting market is absorbent pricing, not as bad as 4k a unit or more but still gouging the small consumer regardless of US tariffs or not.

Canaan is driving market well. 921 looks good and expectation for 941 is that it leads the market with Bitmain studdering. As they should deliver a competitor and best price.

Difficulty up. 

[philipma1957]

very early but we are moving sideways at that 0-2% I mentioned.

there is a lot of math I do on this.

My theory involves most of the network has s-9 type gear.

And that 70 watt a th or better gear will be restricted to select buyers.

Thus causing the 0-2 %   movement for the next  6-9 months

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,454,968,648,263
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,506,500,529,318 (+0.69%)
Adjust time:   After 1302 Blocks, About 9.7 days
Hashrate(?):   49,110,005,370 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.7 minutes
3 blocks: 32.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   11:20 (2.7 minutes ago)



At mods   I am posting the ltc diff charts  as part of my modeling for btc diff please don't delete.
when price dropped we got flat the closer we come to 4-5 cent needed to earn money  the flatter we get

[TheYankeesWin!]

So based on LTC being flat  from July to Oct you think BTC will go flat?

[philipma1957]

So based on LTC being flat  from July to Oct you think BTC will go flat?

Somewhat to simple but partially correct.

BTC is more complex, but both  coins are old and have big asic gear mining.

LTC has more then 450,000 L3+

229,492GHs/.5GHs = 458,984 L3+
two 4 cent power l3+ using 1400 watts and going 1gh make 57 a month

BTC has more then 3,000,000 S9 (I have to check this)
  
49,181,847,606 GHs/14,000 GHs = 3,512,989 s9 or equivalent  
a 4 cent power s9  using 1400 watts and doing 14000gh makes 52 a month

So a guy with 4 cent power  will get close to 52-57 usd profit with 1400 watts

The biggest difference in the two coins is that BTC is now making 70 watt th gear. vs 100 watt th gear           70%     70/100

and  LTC gear is    1400 watts a gh for LT3+  with  no one offering better then  1219 watts a gh for LTC gear.   87%   1219/1400

So that factor is a different one  but still  I see a  long term sidewise move here for BTC that will mirror the LTC July to Oct move.

[philipma1957]

Hi Philip,

I love your posts and calculations.
I have access to about 200 kW of power at 5.5 cents (US) in Quebec, Canada. What gear do you suggest to invest in ?

cheap used s9's  
cheap used l3+

m10's are a long wait

see how long the innosilicon t2ti takes

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3926710.msg46690508#msg46690508
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3926710.msg46687349#msg46687349

BTW, We just released new BTC miner T2Ti with four operation modes:
25T±5%  2000W+10%
23T±5%  1880W+10%
21T±5%  1550W+10%
20T±5%  1360W+10%

Promotional price till Oct 15th

find price and time out remember they do not mine on all pools.

[philipma1957]

Thanks for your reply.

At what price S9 and L3+ should be worth the buy ?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5045054.0

I have done business with fr4nkthetank

ask him what he wants for them.  then talk to me via pm not on this thread.

I can escrow  if needed.

[philipma1957]

to all on what to buy please use  pm to ask and not here as this thread is all about diff movement.

Back to this concept I am working on.  when the network went flat in late 2014 price was pretty stable.

All these projections are based on stable price if price moons people will chase it with tons of gear.

I still see a lull coming up here time will tell.

[windjc]

If price stays the same or decreases, I think we see the hashrate go down for awhile. S9s are no longer profitable for anyone except an individual with access to very cheap power. Anyone with rent and/or employees is done at these levels.

A breakdown in price might see a hashrate that follows for a handful of months as more units go offline.

Of course a break upwards in price and hashrate will remain healthy.

[philipma1957]

Good day estimated, analyzing information about the difficulty of the BTC network and the mathematical calculation that provides this, I have found that if the miners or a good part of them change to another network, such as the BCH network, I am sure that the difficulty would decrease and Our current mining power would be more profitable for the next days. What do you think?

this adds more complexity to the general estimate.

it holds true if BCH has slightly better profit numbers.

but if BCH has vastly better then BTC would drop

and if BCH has vastly less BTC diff would jump up.

For my calculations I treat it as parallel  ie it earns close to 50-60 a month at 1400 watts
same as btc and ltc

[Steamtyme]

His scenario is correct if we are looking at October/November, I think.

That was the drastic Diff changes going on with the BitCH network. We would see everyone jump over there for a few days at a time.

It wasn't drastically noticed across the BTC network immediately but it did usually dent it enough to at least stifle massive DIFF jumps or bring about a drop. I won't lie I'm glad to see that the other network is still there and has stabilized to a point where it remains near a 1:1 for which is more profitable to mine. Only because I don't want to see that hashrate added to ours, increasing BTC difficulty with it.

[Steamtyme]

I think that doesn't really make sense.

BTC network Diff is adjusted every 2016 blocks  ~ approximately 14 days. This is to maintain an average 10 minute block time. Pretty sure BitCH coin is also doing this... can't say I've followed it much in about a year.

With that being in place it helps prevent someone with a large hash, from coin jumping and manipulating Diff in that fashion. Not that it was designed for that purpose. There are smaller alt coins that can be manipulated in that way, but that's because they don't have a large network Hashrate "protecting" it. 

You may just be referring to switching between what is most profitable. That is covered in Phil's explanation previously.