2018 USA Mid Terms! Red or Blue Waves?!?

[Flying Hellfish]

Good timing for the dems, Kavanaughs ethics complaint has been referred for judicial review by SC Chief Justice Roberts to the 10th circuit court of appeals (Merrick Garlands Court, although he recused himself rightly so when the complaints first came up).

The bubble popped, the DOW dropped off a cliff today down 800 points.

Ford Motor Co. announced Trumps tariffs have cost the company 1 billion dollars so far.

Great talking points for the dems, while the president runs around encouraging chants of "lock her up" and mocking respected senator Diane Finestein in Pennsylvania.
 

[suchmoon]

Great talking points for the dems

No worries, next week Trump goes to Florida. A few strategically thrown paper towels will fix the midterms in a jiffy. And it's the Baja Alabama part of Florida so no pesky boricuas in sight.

[squatz1]

Good timing for the dems, Kavanaughs ethics complaint has been referred for judicial review by SC Chief Justice Roberts to the 10th circuit court of appeals (Merrick Garlands Court, although he recused himself rightly so when the complaints first came up).

The bubble popped, the DOW dropped off a cliff today down 800 points.

Ford Motor Co. announced Trumps tariffs have cost the company 1 billion dollars so far.

Great talking points for the dems, while the president runs around encouraging chants of "lock her up" and mocking respected senator Diane Finestein in Pennsylvania.
 

I think you have to zoom out of your lookings into the market, we're still up a gross amount since Trump took the office of the Presidency.

If we're able to recover past this drop, OR stay at this number -- we're going to see Republicans have a solid chance of fighting dems when it comes to holding the house. I call the voters that Trump needs the 401K voters (or any retirement plan for that matter) the people who are going to vote for whoever can make their retirement accounts grow, and as of right now that has been the Republicans in Congress and the Trump WH.

No worries, next week Trump goes to Florida. A few strategically thrown paper towels will fix the midterms in a jiffy. And it's the Baja Alabama part of Florida so no pesky boricuas in sight.

As a side note, this made me laugh!

[Flying Hellfish]

I think you have to zoom out of your lookings into the market, we're still up a gross amount since Trump took the office of the Presidency.

If we're able to recover past this drop, OR stay at this number --

Trade war is going to start affecting a lot of American companies negatively this last quarter, China isn't backing down LOL.  The smart money is taking profits before the shit hits the fan.  An adviser to the Fed today predicted another recession in America by 2020 LOL and in fact mentioned that part of the reason the fed raised interest rates fairly quickly is to try and push that time out further as well as have a little cushion when it does happen to soften the blow.

While its fair to say that it may just be a correction it is also very fair to argue that this may be a signal the market is responding to Trumps reckless spending and trade war.

To be fair a 5% drop in 2 days is premature to add to rally speeches but if it gets worse the dems will talk about this right up to the MT's!

[suchmoon]

I think you have to zoom out of your lookings into the market, we're still up a gross amount since Trump took the office of the Presidency.

If we're able to recover past this drop, OR stay at this number -- we're going to see Republicans have a solid chance of fighting dems when it comes to holding the house. I call the voters that Trump needs the 401K voters (or any retirement plan for that matter) the people who are going to vote for whoever can make their retirement accounts grow, and as of right now that has been the Republicans in Congress and the Trump WH.

Of all the things that politicians like to take credit for, stock market - particularly after a 10-year bull run - is one of the most dangerous. A 15% correction would make those 401K voters very very angry.

[squatz1]

Of all the things that politicians like to take credit for, stock market - particularly after a 10-year bull run - is one of the most dangerous. A 15% correction would make those 401K voters very very angry.

Oh yeah, without a doubt. This is really going to hurt him if the market REALLY slides down and those 401k voters start to revolt. It would kill most his talking points.

Trade war is going to start affecting a lot of American companies negatively this last quarter, China isn't backing down LOL.  The smart money is taking profits before the shit hits the fan.  An adviser to the Fed today predicted another recession in America by 2020 LOL and in fact mentioned that part of the reason the fed raised interest rates fairly quickly is to try and push that time out further as well as have a little cushion when it does happen to soften the blow.

Funny quote I heard once about recessions, it makes good sense here

"Economists have predicted nine of the past five recessions"

But yes, I do think we did have to raise the interest rates so if we were to have a recession in the next 5 years or so we're able to do something (instead of just looking at a no change dead 0 percent interest rate) Smart money keeps money in HODL, if you will!!!!!

Trying to time the market is one of the worst things people can try to do. Even institutions (mutual funds) can't beat simply following the market.

[gembirdprivate]

Well with all the political pundits among us and the Mid Terms rapidly approaching I am curious how everyone see the House and Senate races panning out.

It looks to me like the Senate will stay Red and they might just pick up a couple seats giving them some breathing room!  Looks like Hietkamp is underwater double digits so the red state might get that seat back (and shes a no on Kavanaugh which probably doesn't help her).  Manchin is another tight race where he has a small lead but his vote on the Kavanaugh nom might sway voters one way or the other.

I haven't been watching to many other senate races so feel free to tell us about any more!

The early polls had a blue house but the Kavanaugh show seems to have energized the republican base.  Will the base come down if Kavanaugh gets confirmed?  Will the base get fired up if Kavanaugh gets voted down?  The same question can be asked of the Dem base.  Do they get energized if Kavanaugh gets confirmed.  Do they cool off if he gets voted down or does Trumps antics with the Kavanaugh Circus give the dems enough energy regardless of the outcome on Kavanaugh?

It's pretty damn rare for a Presidents party to pick up house seats in the mid term, which voters are motivated enough pre and post Kavanaugh confirmation vote!

I absolutely agree that the Senate remains red, I have many friends who think so too.

[Spendulus]

....
Of all the things that politicians like to take credit for, stock market - particularly after a 10-year bull run - is one of the most dangerous. A 15% correction would make those 401K voters very very angry.

I'm going out on a limb and saying the House remains red.

Call it a post Kav thing.

[Flying Hellfish]

Early voting is setting records in all kinds of states.  Early voting numbers are basically the same as the 2016 presidential election....

Does that help the dems or republicans?!

[TECSHARE]

Early voting is setting records in all kinds of states.  Early voting numbers are basically the same as the 2016 presidential election....

Does that help the dems or republicans?!

Traditionally early voting benefits Democrats, but every thing I have been reading is suggesting is there is potentially record turnout for Republican early voting, so we will see.

People are starting to get wise to the voter shenanigans and want to leave as little potential for fraud as possible by voting early (and more importantly first).

BTW, I will give you one last chance to put money on that "blue wave"

[Flying Hellfish]

Early voting is setting records in all kinds of states.  Early voting numbers are basically the same as the 2016 presidential election....

Does that help the dems or republicans?!

Traditionally early voting benefits Democrats, but every thing I have been reading is suggesting is there is potentially record turnout for Republican early voting, so we will see.

People are starting to get wise to the voter shenanigans and want to leave as little potential for fraud as possible by voting early (and more importantly first).

BTW, I will give you one last chance to put money on that "blue wave"

Ya traditionally early and heavy turnout is a good sign for the dems in mid terms.

With the turn out so far being equal to that of a presidential year I don't think it's as good a sign for dems as it would be traditionally.  I think the early turn out isn't really going to tell us much other than people are voting LOL.

I didn't know a wager was on offer!  Define a blue wave, or IOW define the wager and I may be interested.  I'm not interested in a large wager, nothing more than .01BTC but the terms would ultimately dictate how much or if I would wager.

[TECSHARE]

Early voting is setting records in all kinds of states.  Early voting numbers are basically the same as the 2016 presidential election....

Does that help the dems or republicans?!

Traditionally early voting benefits Democrats, but every thing I have been reading is suggesting is there is potentially record turnout for Republican early voting, so we will see.

People are starting to get wise to the voter shenanigans and want to leave as little potential for fraud as possible by voting early (and more importantly first).

BTW, I will give you one last chance to put money on that "blue wave"

Ya traditionally early and heavy turnout is a good sign for the dems in mid terms.

With the turn out so far being equal to that of a presidential year I don't think it's as good a sign for dems as it would be traditionally.  I think the early turn out isn't really going to tell us much other than people are voting LOL.

I didn't know a wager was on offer!  Define a blue wave, or IOW define the wager and I may be interested.  I'm not interested in a large wager, nothing more than .01BTC but the terms would ultimately dictate how much or if I would wager.

Lets use your own terms.

Dems are picking up 35 seats in the house dude, like it or not!!!  Even if they don't get 35 they will take control of the house!

For reference: Republicans control the U.S. House of Representatives. As of October 2018, the Republican Party was in the majority, holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven seats being vacant. Democrats will have to take 228 house seats or more for you to win.

I am willing to wager the Democrats will not take 35 additional seats, or more in the house. 0.01 BTC is a reasonable amount. I am willing to leave it to either party to fulfill the wager based on trust if you are, no escrow needed. Do you accept these terms?

[Flying Hellfish]

Early voting is setting records in all kinds of states.  Early voting numbers are basically the same as the 2016 presidential election....

Does that help the dems or republicans?!

Traditionally early voting benefits Democrats, but every thing I have been reading is suggesting is there is potentially record turnout for Republican early voting, so we will see.

People are starting to get wise to the voter shenanigans and want to leave as little potential for fraud as possible by voting early (and more importantly first).

BTW, I will give you one last chance to put money on that "blue wave"

Ya traditionally early and heavy turnout is a good sign for the dems in mid terms.

With the turn out so far being equal to that of a presidential year I don't think it's as good a sign for dems as it would be traditionally.  I think the early turn out isn't really going to tell us much other than people are voting LOL.

I didn't know a wager was on offer!  Define a blue wave, or IOW define the wager and I may be interested.  I'm not interested in a large wager, nothing more than .01BTC but the terms would ultimately dictate how much or if I would wager.

Lets use your own terms.

Dems are picking up 35 seats in the house dude, like it or not!!!  Even if they don't get 35 they will take control of the house!

For reference: Republicans control the U.S. House of Representatives. As of October 2018, the Republican Party was in the majority, holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven seats being vacant. Democrats will have to take 228 house seats or more for you to win.

I am willing to wager the Democrats will not take 35 additional seats, or more in the house. 0.01 BTC is a reasonable amount. I am willing to leave it to either party to fulfill the wager based on trust if you are, no escrow needed. Do you accept these terms?

I'm not sure I would wager on 35 seats tbh.  I will do +30 seats for the dems so 223 seats for dems or more I win 222 seats or less for dems you win.

No escrow needed bro, lmk if you like my change

[TECSHARE]

Early voting is setting records in all kinds of states.  Early voting numbers are basically the same as the 2016 presidential election....

Does that help the dems or republicans?!

Traditionally early voting benefits Democrats, but every thing I have been reading is suggesting is there is potentially record turnout for Republican early voting, so we will see.

People are starting to get wise to the voter shenanigans and want to leave as little potential for fraud as possible by voting early (and more importantly first).

BTW, I will give you one last chance to put money on that "blue wave"

Ya traditionally early and heavy turnout is a good sign for the dems in mid terms.

With the turn out so far being equal to that of a presidential year I don't think it's as good a sign for dems as it would be traditionally.  I think the early turn out isn't really going to tell us much other than people are voting LOL.

I didn't know a wager was on offer!  Define a blue wave, or IOW define the wager and I may be interested.  I'm not interested in a large wager, nothing more than .01BTC but the terms would ultimately dictate how much or if I would wager.

Lets use your own terms.

Dems are picking up 35 seats in the house dude, like it or not!!!  Even if they don't get 35 they will take control of the house!

For reference: Republicans control the U.S. House of Representatives. As of October 2018, the Republican Party was in the majority, holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven seats being vacant. Democrats will have to take 228 house seats or more for you to win.

I am willing to wager the Democrats will not take 35 additional seats, or more in the house. 0.01 BTC is a reasonable amount. I am willing to leave it to either party to fulfill the wager based on trust if you are, no escrow needed. Do you accept these terms?

I'm not sure I would wager on 35 seats tbh.  I will do +30 seats for the dems so 223 seats for dems or more I win 222 seats or less for dems you win.

No escrow needed bro, lmk if you like my change

So you don't really believe what you say? Nut up and support your words with actions. Put your money where your mouth is.

[Flying Hellfish]

So you don't really believe what you say? Nut up and support your words with actions. Put your money where your mouth is.

There is a difference between what I think will happen and what I am willing to wager will happen...  Sometimes I think the Washington Generals will finally pull out a win but I wouldn't wager on it!!!!!!!

30 or I'll pass thanks.

[TECSHARE]

So you don't really believe what you say? Nut up and support your words with actions. Put your money where your mouth is.

There is a difference between what I think will happen and what I am willing to wager will happen...  Sometimes I think the Washington Generals will finally pull out a win but I wouldn't wager on it!!!!!!!

30 or I'll pass thanks.

I get it, you don't really believe what you say.

[Flying Hellfish]

So you don't really believe what you say? Nut up and support your words with actions. Put your money where your mouth is.

There is a difference between what I think will happen and what I am willing to wager will happen...  Sometimes I think the Washington Generals will finally pull out a win but I wouldn't wager on it!!!!!!!

30 or I'll pass thanks.

I get it, you don't really believe what you say.

Oh horse shit, it's an unpredictable future event.  Just because I won't bet you on it doesn't mean I don't think it will happen, odds matter.

Give me 2 to 1 odds and I will take the 35 seat bet!!!

[TECSHARE]

So you don't really believe what you say? Nut up and support your words with actions. Put your money where your mouth is.

There is a difference between what I think will happen and what I am willing to wager will happen...  Sometimes I think the Washington Generals will finally pull out a win but I wouldn't wager on it!!!!!!!

30 or I'll pass thanks.

I get it, you don't really believe what you say.

Oh horse shit, it's an unpredictable future event.  Just because I won't bet you on it doesn't mean I don't think it will happen, odds matter.

Give me 2 to 1 odds and I will take the 35 seat bet!!!

Hey, you are the one that made the statement not me. All I did was call your bluff and put money down. I won't give you 2 to 1 odds, but I will raise it to 0.02 if you like

[Flying Hellfish]

So you don't really believe what you say? Nut up and support your words with actions. Put your money where your mouth is.

There is a difference between what I think will happen and what I am willing to wager will happen...  Sometimes I think the Washington Generals will finally pull out a win but I wouldn't wager on it!!!!!!!

30 or I'll pass thanks.

I get it, you don't really believe what you say.

Oh horse shit, it's an unpredictable future event.  Just because I won't bet you on it doesn't mean I don't think it will happen, odds matter.

Give me 2 to 1 odds and I will take the 35 seat bet!!!

Hey, you are the one that made the statement not me. All I did was call your bluff and put money down. I won't give you 2 to 1 odds, but I will raise it to 0.02 if you like

And you've claimed that the left is running in wild numbers to the right, why don't we bet on the republicans keeping control of the house?  Or don't you believe what you say?? 

[TECSHARE]

And you've claimed that the left is running in wild numbers to the right, why don't we bet on the republicans keeping control of the house?  Or don't you believe what you say??  

Being refractory is not becoming or really that clever. I never made a specific claim about it, only challenged your hubris by levying a wager.