Summary Present Day > July 2022

[MarquiseMuseum]

should hit local bottom around this level (5800 2018-11-14) before december to february rally. Please read my newer thread on why this global 422bn might not include BTC because of its scalability issues.

The first post in this discussion thread is tracking a BTC 300k in a few years, but this number could represent global market cap because of BTCs scalability problem, so in the end it might not be BTC 300k but a total market cap equivalent at that point in time which would then be in the vicinity of 5 trillion.

[MarquiseMuseum]

Going to 422 now, probably ETF trigger beginning of december. Some alts are also undervalued so majority of gains should be there. This rally will last until february.

[DedgeDoge]

should hit local bottom around this level (5800 2018-11-14) before december to february rally. Please read my newer thread on why this global 422bn might not include BTC because of its scalability issues.

The first post in this discussion thread is tracking a BTC 300k in a few years, but this number could represent global market cap because of BTCs scalability problem, so in the end it might not be BTC 300k but a total market cap equivalent at that point in time which would then be in the vicinity of 5 trillion.

We really can't see what will happen on a daily basis and this is a topic that allows us to estimate how bitcoin will be in july 2022. Last week if you asked people if the bitcoin price would go down almost everyone would say the price wouldn't go under 6 thousand dollars but right now we see that is quite possible and the price is very low right now. Compared to that we have no idea what will happen next week neither so it is futile to try to estimate what will happen in july 2022.

I think the clearest choice would be saying "it will be higher than current price" because it feels like there is still 3 and a half years from now and during that time bitcoin will probably go even higher in popularity and adoption and there will be times when the price will go up between now and that time.

[kronos123]

Going to 422 now, probably ETF trigger beginning of december. Some alts are also undervalued so majority of gains should be there. This rally will last until february.

Let me understand: you are saying that ETF will be approved at the beginning of December and the general market will reach $ 422bn until about February, with the bitcoin going towards $ 14,000, as you indicated here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php? topic=5044830.msg46562328#msg46562328

Then you think that the whole market and Bitcoin pulls back again and heavily up to about $ 60 billion of the market and $ 2700 for Bitcoin, as you wrote here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5041293.msg48050281#msg48050281

Did I understand your analysis / forecast?
Do you have any models or indicators you need to affirm these things?

[MarquiseMuseum]

Going to 422 now, probably ETF trigger beginning of december. Some alts are also undervalued so majority of gains should be there. This rally will last until february.

Let me understand: you are saying that ETF will be approved at the beginning of December and the general market will reach $ 422bn until about February, with the bitcoin going towards $ 14,000, as you indicated here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php? topic=5044830.msg46562328#msg46562328

Then you think that the whole market and Bitcoin pulls back again and heavily up to about $ 60 billion of the market and $ 2700 for Bitcoin, as you wrote here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5041293.msg48050281#msg48050281

Did I understand your analysis / forecast?
Do you have any models or indicators you need to affirm these things?

I am tracking many dozens indicators to gain a holistic overview, social media sentiment, old coin ta, peer analytics, mass media (contra indications), gold analytics, global gdp forecasting, technological development, inflation/debt metrics and so forth.

It seems to me that market will move away from Proof of work and Bitcoin, and that the rally will be for sub top 3 alts. People should be careful dropping a bunch of fiat on BTC with this emerging shift in sentiment, there are altcoins at 1/1000 valuation of BTC with fundamental indicators suggesting x200 gains in the near future.

So, many will be burned if this scenario unfolds, but someone must pay for the rally to 422.

I would backtrack on any external price drivers for BTC right now (anything above 12k mid to long term), the gains will be global market cap, at the expense of BTC (internal wealth transfer). It's only in the past 24 hours that this speculative development became apparent as a potential rally trigger, many good alts are overlooked and alot of the devaluation this year was due to BTC pairing.

It is wise to consider the 2017 rally could have been atleast partially fueled by tether fraud, and that future rallies might not be as parabolic (x200 or more), especially for coins at more than 2 billion valuation. There are still thousandfold gains out there.

Lastly, a sudden pullback from 422 in february driven by bitcoin could be caused by a general market move away from BTC. Whereas BTC may not recover soon, alts should recover and prosper within 6 months from that point. So 12k for BTC (where shifting sentiment has not permeated mainstream already) might be its last big move for many years to come where opportunity will instead be in newer chains.

If BTC devs can deliver very soon it stands a chance to remain relevant (no proof of work/decentralized scaling). Recent public statements by people like Craig Wright, erodes confidence in the prospect of BTC. The price manipulation this time backfired (basically making BTC a toxic asset for now), it was completely overtly conducted with explicit statements by CW.

sidenote: Alot of expected near term added value in the form of underground venues such as strip clubs, will not be adopting bitcoin or any other third party chains. They will of course develop their own inhouse loyalty chain with a hybrid function of stock/gift card. The technical barrier to entry is already low today, platform enablers such as stellar and waves are well positioned to capture market here. Shortly after, mainstream fortune 500 will follow, conglomerates will assume sovereign characteristics when they decouple from government issued fiat. Government blockchains will be censorship enabled and generally dysfunctional, paying for social security (basic income), military and other social functions like education. All of these are set for increased decentralization with 3d printing and online education in the next 10 years. The aim is to achieve personal sovereignity which is the unexpressed current of blockchain. Technologically this will advance into artificial planets and so on in the latter half of the century and ultimately some divine state with the transcension hypothesis in 300 years.

Blockchain is only one piece of a high tech puzzle that we can interact with in the present world, a decade before its prime time. It is like cosmic white noise before the arrival of an interstellar mothership, or radio static before tuning into color tv. The long term (1 Quadrillion) parabola trajectory that hyperbitcoinization analytics discovered, doesn't make any sense to anyone in the present. But when other sciences are merged with it, the fundamentals fall into coherence. 

[MarquiseMuseum]

Prices hit the 112 terminal bottom yesterday so this might be it. But there are fundamental indicators that suggest a change in sentiment, so especially BTC and ETH are a little toxic for now. Some alts at this level should yield x200 within a year or two, I am not sure exactly which ones but have a stake in some.

If we don't rally towards 422 immediately, the level around 4000 +-15% will range for a few weeks or months.

Could wick to 1200 -1500 btc to affirm may 2017 trading session pre tether, 40-60bn global. Possibly include organic market growth on top of this number with adjusted bottom, equivalent to 50% higher ($1800-2250 btc).

[eann014]

Based on a newly discovered pattern that has so far correlated with BTC for 4 years. Enjoy.

Phase I

1. Global is moving to 187bn and BTC $5700 by early december this year
2. Rally follows for 2 months until early or mid february 2019 with a healthy +150% recovery until global 450bn and btc 14k max, probably a bit lower
3. 5 month second leg bear market from mid february until july 2019 possibly up until beginning of september
4. Prices during this 5 month period will bottom at 112bn global and 3.4k btc
5. 50% recovery between july and september 2019 towards 170bn global btc 5k

Phase II

1. September 2019 is the start of the real bull parabola 2.0: btc moves rapidly to 14k/global 450bn
2. up to 50% october retracement 7/225
3. Parabolic rally from november 2019 until march 2020: global 1.1TN/BTC 28-30K
4. April-July 2020 up to 70% retracement with BTC 9k/global 330bn shakeout
5. Dollar average during April-July interim is higher at 14k btc 500bn global (-50%)

Phase III (2020 july halving)

1. August is a flatline month without significant movement in any direction
2. Possibly squeezing in a double bottom again at 9k btc 330bn global
3. September 2020 +100% btc 18k/global 660bn
4. October recovery -25% btc 13.5/global 500bn
5. Back to September levels in November

Phase IV

1. Two month parabola rally +500% December 2020-January 2021: 90kBTC/3,3TN Global
2. 65% retracement in february 2021: 1.2 global/31.5 btc
3. 1.5 months road to double top Mid April: 3.3/90k
4. Mid June 2021 (two months retracement) 31.5/1.2tn
5. Beginning or Mid September end of 3 month blow off rally x10: BTC 300 000 USD/Global market cap $12TN

Epilogue

10 month bear market until July 2022 stabilizing at global 4.2TN/BTC 105K



Tip jar:

[Bitcoin]: 36YU26vSTWLKwmqeYgsgwm5WvMWBuvT3mR

[Waves]: 3P7VGLF9vPVsUZusxP9hBjQ2NwkNyhppb5G

Yeah, that was your speculation last Oct, how about now? Because bitcoin price now is lower than $5700 as what you have stated that the price of bitcoin on Dec 2018 will be $5700 which I think will not going to happen now, so there is no assurance on those speculations and maybe better to make more possible speculation than thinking in advance with no any other proof or something. But still give some point of vew to others.

[kronos123]

Prices hit the 112 terminal bottom yesterday so this might be it. But there are fundamental indicators that suggest a change in sentiment, so especially BTC and ETH are a little toxic for now. Some alts at this level should yield x200 within a year or two, I am not sure exactly which ones but have a stake in some.

If we don't rally towards 422 immediately, the level around 4000 +-15% will range for a few weeks or months.

Could wick to 1200 -1500 btc to affirm may 2017 trading session pre tether, 40-60bn global. Possibly include organic market growth on top of this number with adjusted bottom, equivalent to 50% higher ($1800-2250 btc).

I find your analysis interesting, as well as bizarre, and it is right that you slightly adjust your prediction as prices and waves form.

If you have analyzed other blockchain projects, which ones can you think are the ones with the best potential to express: VeChain? Tezos? Stellar? Iota? Neo?
Do you have any suggestions or are you heavily invested in any of them, or others?

[MarquiseMuseum]

Prices hit the 112 terminal bottom yesterday so this might be it. But there are fundamental indicators that suggest a change in sentiment, so especially BTC and ETH are a little toxic for now. Some alts at this level should yield x200 within a year or two, I am not sure exactly which ones but have a stake in some.

If we don't rally towards 422 immediately, the level around 4000 +-15% will range for a few weeks or months.

Could wick to 1200 -1500 btc to affirm may 2017 trading session pre tether, 40-60bn global. Possibly include organic market growth on top of this number with adjusted bottom, equivalent to 50% higher ($1800-2250 btc).

I find your analysis interesting, as well as bizarre, and it is right that you slightly adjust your prediction as prices and waves form.

If you have analyzed other blockchain projects, which ones can you think are the ones with the best potential to express: VeChain? Tezos? Stellar? Iota? Neo?
Do you have any suggestions or are you heavily invested in any of them, or others?

This is my interpretation based on present data sets:

1. The brands you list are part of the top 20 I believe. Considering that they are at 0.25 to billion dollar valuations or more already, combined with traditional market cap developments over time in high tech brands such as Microsoft and Apple in the 80's, barring the 2017 parabolic move caused by market confusion and possibly tether, a logic 5 year projection would presume that none of them exceed $400bn independently or consistently given 100% success in all areas of development and near market monopoly for each chain. I have not analyzed any of them in detail except Stellar which is similar to Waves, which my own brand is using as a utility platform for the proprietary product. The bottom line is that growth potential is great but risk variables remain uncertain, so utility investments are preferred over speculative investments (invest in things you need/use often).

2. Alot of the 1 Quadrillion dollar value estimates from hyperbitcoinization analytics wrongly assume present market conditions to remain static over the next decade. I believe that AI paired chains will represent perhaps 90% or more of the 1Qn projection, with traditional industries at a collective $100Tn, whereas global gdp for 2018 is at ~ $80Tn. This means, no $1 million dollar bitcoin or higher. There are no serious AI hybrid brands yet, and I don't expect any on the horizon for 5 years or more.

3. Bitcoin itself, given fundamental flaws such as Proof of Work, demonstrably dysfunctional scaling solutions which are not decentralized and importantly community behaviour by key people, concludes that its price may increase as a novelty factor in the near or far future, but not at a rate of competitiveness comparable to other emerging chains. Its dominance will likely fade significantly.

4. It is possible that ecosystems of different blockchain iterations such as Privacy Masternodes can capture small market share in a trillion dollar economy within 3 years or less. Many of these brands are at single or double digit million dollar valuations. Given a $100Bn potential market, distributed somewhat equally between a few dozen brands, we can conclude that there are some x1000 projections within that ecosystem in the present, with proven and strong momentum in some of these coins during late bullmarket 2017, as many were introduced around that time in batches. The primary source of this projection is based on DASH and its fork variations. However, I think that solo chains without a platform enabler such as Stellar or Waves, will experience slower adoption because of increased marketing requirements inorder to reach more users. By its nature there is also the ever present risk of regulation in this sector. From a scalability viewpoint, an ecosystem of 30 surviving and successful chains, each capable of 50tx/s (based on DASH and Pivx data), will enable around 10% of VISA capacity which aligns well with an expected market share of 10% in a 1-2 trillion dollar blockchain economy.


So what do investors need to be mindful of?

1. Dpos chains that are in the top 30 due to a higher degree of centralization comparable to PoS Masternodes. Exceptions include brands that offer something realistic beyond DpoS (Lisk has smart contracts in pipeline, Nano is DAG, and a few others want to build decentralized internet in top of their DPos). In general, the DPoS model is an inferior and outdated option from a decentralized perspective. There are newer variations of all of the above but the top 30 is more visible so people buy that before proper due diligence on the underlying tech and emerging options.

2. The current top 5 bubble which could easily shed another several tens of billions from total MC, or at the bare minimum, significantly underperform other coins, as soon as they unpeg from BTC.

3. Astroturfers such as Nexo (Goldman Sachs), anything proven to be operated by old world centralized institutions or Fortune 500 brands which are since decades coopted by (corrupt) government. These brands will soon migrate to blockchain and that is the source of a large share of the $100Tn projected market cap, so the growth will be ported, not new. Present Crypto index can grow towards 5 to 10Tn in 5 years but probably not much more, this is in line with Winklevoss statements.

4. Centralized exchanges which are already fading.

[MarquiseMuseum]

180bn/5.5k

[MarquiseMuseum]

180bn/5.5k

Took a little longer than expected but here we are.

Might be a wave 5 to double bottom 3k or even lower, might otherwise go stright to 14k between september possibly as late as december 2019 because of this 4 month delay.

Phase II/III and beyond 2021 are still on track.

[MarquiseMuseum]

243 Global April 20th then reversal. If double bottom/lower wave 5 scenario H2 (40-100bn), otherwise towards 14k Fall (600bn global).

[Adriano2010]

Well anything can happen, and we can't be sure if more and more will come to crypto to have that price in 2022, but i also think will be higher then is now.

Good work bytheway.

[Idrisu]

Well anything can happen, and we can't be sure if more and more will come to crypto to have that price in 2022, but i also think will be higher then is now.

Good work bytheway.

We can not really said and analyze the market accurately because if you look at op predictions you will see that he was predicting bitcoin to grow to $5000 in December 2019 but currently bitcoin is now $5248. I think we should allow time to show us the way.

[Kemarit]

243 Global April 20th then reversal. If double bottom/lower wave 5 scenario H2 (40-100bn), otherwise towards 14k Fall (600bn global).

Phase I

1. Global is moving to 187bn and BTC $5700 by early december this year.

It took a little longer though, perhaps you initial prediction didn't take into consider the hash war brought to us by the BCH vs BSV in November that's why it look a while before we can hit your Phase 1 prediction. Right now it's $179 billion cap and price is $5200-$5300. We are almost there so once we touch it, let's see if your other predictions will be right on track.

[LimLims]

I can really see that,  you have really tried your best and done a lot of research.
And to be honest i am also quite impressed by your work.
But as others said,  i will also say that this is Bitcoin and you clearly know what i mean to say.
You can have evidences from the past that how the price of Bitcoin fluctuates.
Hope some of your research becomes true  and yes we will be able to sell our holdings in a higher price.

[Jating]

I can really see that,  you have really tried your best and done a lot of research.
And to be honest i am also quite impressed by your work.
But as others said,  i will also say that this is Bitcoin and you clearly know what i mean to say.
You can have evidences from the past that how the price of Bitcoin fluctuates.
Hope some of your research becomes true  and yes we will be able to sell our holdings in a higher price.

Well we all know that predicting the price movement is very difficult, as evident of the some misses already in his phase 1. But the thing is you can just adjust your predictions as it see fits, just like what the OP did about 2 weeks ago.

Of course all we can do is hope because who wouldn't want the price o bitcoin goes higher in the future?

[MarquiseMuseum]

243 Global April 20th then reversal. If double bottom/lower wave 5 scenario H2 (40-100bn), otherwise towards 14k Fall (600bn global).

Looks like 450BN global/14k BTC by mid august, alts x30 by late summer (not top 5, expected underperfom), then up to 70% correction, and then x6 from that low by september 2020 which will be ath for global and BTC (810BN/25K).

If bearish wave 5, then this is top and -80% from here, recovery delayed until late 2019. 212bn/7k. Target 40bn/1400btc.

65/35 in favor of continuation.

[MarquiseMuseum]

above analysis still valid, bear 5 could be many years long if activated at $10-12k. Bear 5 does not include good alt projects, so it could actually be a mixed bull bear scenario aka flip.

[FanEagle]

I think there won't be too much of a change in the history sense from today to 2022. I am not talking about "no change" as in the price will be same and everything will be same, I am talking about the past 3 years happened and the next 3 years will be the same as the last 3 years. That is at least my idea, maybe it won't be like that, maybe it will be a lot different but to me the fact is that we had a very wild 3 years shows that how much more wild can it get?

I am pretty sure it would be as wild as the past 3 years and it won't be calm but it can't get any more wild. Hence in 2022 the price will be a lot more but until then we will have many ups and downs in price that would make new all time highs then make yearly lows to eventually go up again and down again.

above analysis still valid, bear 5 could be many years long if activated at $10-12k. Bear 5 does not include good alt projects, so it could actually be a mixed bull bear scenario aka flip.