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thecodebear
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October 08, 2018, 04:06:47 PM |
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A break upwards is many times more likely than a break downwards. The market right now is showing all the signs of being in the transition stage between bear market and bull market - low volatility, a stable price, sitting just above the firmly established bottom of the market. Also making this more clear is that all year Bitcoin has been bouncing around between the bottom of ~$6000 and lower highs: first around $11,700, then $9900, then $8500, then $7400. With the final lower high of the bear market only about $1500 above the firmly established bottom of the market there is no more room for a lower high to take place.
The only way for a bear market to continue is if like the OP says it broke down significantly through the bottom of the market, but that bottom has been established for 8 months and held support four times throughout those 8 months. There is very little reason to think the price will drop from here. We are likely looking at possibly another month or two of prices between the bottom ~$6000 and the last lower high of the bear market ~$7400 and probably by the end of the year we'll see a break back up to $8k, signally the start of the next long bull market which will likely last through 2020 or thereabouts.
I suppose it is even possible that a break out to start the next long bull market starts this month, but personally I think it'll at least another month or two.
The first sign of the start of the next bull market will be when the price breaks above $7500, thus ending the bearish pattern of lower highs that has been going on since the start of the year. And then when it breaks above $8500 to beat the second to last lower high of the bear market that will be the signal that confirms we are definitely in the very early stages of the next bull run. That will be the sign for any very conservative investors who still have money sitting on the side that you need to throw it all in. But right now is the best chance to put in money sitting on the side, as it is extremely unlikely to go lower ever again and we'll probably be looking at a rising price starting in the next two months.
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cryptocrusher
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October 08, 2018, 08:40:52 PM |
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A break upwards is many times more likely than a break downwards. The market right now is showing all the signs of being in the transition stage between bear market and bull market - low volatility, a stable price, sitting just above the firmly established bottom of the market. Also making this more clear is that all year Bitcoin has been bouncing around between the bottom of ~$6000 and lower highs: first around $11,700, then $9900, then $8500, then $7400. With the final lower high of the bear market only about $1500 above the firmly established bottom of the market there is no more room for a lower high to take place.
The only way for a bear market to continue is if like the OP says it broke down significantly through the bottom of the market, but that bottom has been established for 8 months and held support four times throughout those 8 months. There is very little reason to think the price will drop from here. We are likely looking at possibly another month or two of prices between the bottom ~$6000 and the last lower high of the bear market ~$7400 and probably by the end of the year we'll see a break back up to $8k, signally the start of the next long bull market which will likely last through 2020 or thereabouts.
I suppose it is even possible that a break out to start the next long bull market starts this month, but personally I think it'll at least another month or two.
The first sign of the start of the next bull market will be when the price breaks above $7500, thus ending the bearish pattern of lower highs that has been going on since the start of the year. And then when it breaks above $8500 to beat the second to last lower high of the bear market that will be the signal that confirms we are definitely in the very early stages of the next bull run. That will be the sign for any very conservative investors who still have money sitting on the side that you need to throw it all in. But right now is the best chance to put in money sitting on the side, as it is extremely unlikely to go lower ever again and we'll probably be looking at a rising price starting in the next two months.
This is probably as close as anyone has come to explaining my own thoughts, the market has little room to move now. The only worrying thing is that given what you have said, the most likely scenario is a positive one but if it's the negative one then I don't see how it won't be a big chunk coming off of the market. |
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1Referee
Legendary
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Activity: 2170
Merit: 1427
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October 08, 2018, 10:06:21 PM |
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The only worrying thing is that given what you have said, the most likely scenario is a positive one but if it's the negative one then I don't see how it won't be a big chunk coming off of the market.
It's not necessarily a bad thing if it goes towards the south. I wouldn't mind to buy more coins at even lower levels. It's going to take an insane amount of panic and selling pressure to eat through the buy support around the $5000 level, and even if the price dips well below $5800 it will likely be a brief visit from where it bounces back up burning plenty of shorters in the process. Seasonality favors Bitcoin in Q4 and for that reason I'm more bullish on Bitcoin right now than I have been this year. 75% chance that we'll go over $7000 this month and I have gone long days ago to back up my confidence in the market. One thing however is sure, whether the market breaks out to the north or south, Bitmex will be the real winner.  |
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Mobius
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October 08, 2018, 10:55:09 PM |
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We will see a big move up within the next few days. The bands are incredibly tight right now and the price has held nicely.
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ninis45
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October 09, 2018, 02:50:26 AM |
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I'm still not sure the market will dump even $ 3000 quickly because the market is still in a bumpy state and the bull can come and ...  ? |
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Tapyaks72
Member
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Activity: 490
Merit: 28
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October 09, 2018, 03:30:52 AM |
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We will see a big move up within the next few days. The bands are incredibly tight right now and the price has held nicely.
As of from 3rd quarter until now the price id quite stables it doesn't goes below 5k margin, and in the last quarter will be an exciting phase because it is expected to pump up anytime as what it happened last year, the prices today's would be the ample time to invest, before its too late. |
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iamMhew
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October 09, 2018, 04:13:40 AM |
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I also predict that it will go down more deeper, and its possible to touch the $3000 price before the bull run starts. But like i said it is just my own predictions and i cant really tell when it it happen, so i start to hold mine and set untouchable after the coming event of dip.
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Idrisu
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October 09, 2018, 07:08:34 AM |
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The uncertainty in the history of cryptocurrencies for the past three weeks is a sign that the bullish trend is about to resume and that is if the news is positive and if it is negative you should expect a very serious dump and crash.
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raven7886
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1041
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October 09, 2018, 10:40:40 AM |
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The quiet before the storm is here. I’m not sure how much longer this sideways price action can go. A big move is coming. I still think we have a good dump coming taking us to $3000 before the next bull run. What’s your prediction?
Disclaimer: I’m Hodling
The side way price movement has last for long and we expect that the bullish trend will soon resume. I think thing are in bullish directions except something very bad happened to the market before we can talk of bearish trend. Whichever trend we will resume from here is actually something hard to speculate. We have seen the market in a sideways movement for a while now, and the chances of seeing a break out soon as the triangle keeps closing up and hopefully, we will get to see a breakout upwards which is not actually something guaranteed yet coupled with the fact that in a market when things are like this, break out can be in either ways, so the best thing to do is to just wait it out and let's see who ends up winning this fight, and even though the bulls have been making some statement lately, we still have some direction to face before knowing any possibility. |
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nl247
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October 09, 2018, 11:33:15 AM |
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Hard to tell! It has been a sideways market and things are getting pretty tight already as we keep approaching the apex of the triangle and the chances of seeing break out soon is getting pretty close, but at the same time, all we can just do now is to be patient and hope for the best, and if the worst even comes as we go down lower, the best is to take advantage of it by buying more. Being in Q4, a lot of optimism in the market, and the way things are going with institutions, one may actually want to think the likelihood of seeing a break out upward is there, but in a market, nothing is predictable and nothing is guaranteed.
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KenChanYu
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October 09, 2018, 11:55:39 AM |
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The uncertainty in the history of cryptocurrencies for the past three weeks is a sign that the bullish trend is about to resume and that is if the news is positive and if it is negative you should expect a very serious dump and crash.
The market is moderately grown steadily and it is hard to foretell its either to go up or go down due of its nature volatility. But at least if the value will move immensely, then people's speculation will lighten up for the accurate accusation. And I know most of us are hesitating that bullish market will consistently be stable. Let us be a good motivation for engaging the good development and fast progression of the market, so we can celebrate the great thrives by the end of this year. |
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magneto
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October 09, 2018, 11:54:36 PM |
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The quiet before the storm is here. I’m not sure how much longer this sideways price action can go. A big move is coming. I still think we have a good dump coming taking us to $3000 before the next bull run. What’s your prediction?
Disclaimer: I’m Hodling
I pretty much agree with your prediction, but the lowest that I see prices go is probably $4k at the moment. But I do think that a dip or two are still going to come our way before prices actually start recovering. This is pretty much based on the previous cycles, especially the most recent bear market of 2014. Obviously it's not going to be a perfectly mirrored version of that, but it should be fairly close given the cyclic nature of the market within bitcoin. Though, for now until the end of the year most likely, I think we'll still consolidate at $6k and see prices stay put and move mostly sideways without any major movement. |
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jamids
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October 10, 2018, 12:14:37 AM |
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The quiet before the storm is here. I’m not sure how much longer this sideways price action can go. A big move is coming. I still think we have a good dump coming taking us to $3000 before the next bull run. What’s your prediction?
Disclaimer: I’m Hodling
Yes, it's calm now and you can take advantage of it by trading small bits. During this time, it would be in favor of those who have large funds because even if there is only a little percentage of movement, they can still get something from it unlike for those who have small funds who will have to wait for it a big movement before they can say that got a significant profit from it. I prefer trading in a short period of time due to the uncertainty of the market. |
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Whosdaddy
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October 10, 2018, 07:01:05 AM |
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The quiet before the storm is here. I’m not sure how much longer this sideways price action can go. A big move is coming. I still think we have a good dump coming taking us to $3000 before the next bull run. What’s your prediction?
Disclaimer: I’m Hodling
We are actually in a market where nothing is predictable and so is every other market anyway and all we have to us is the trend at hand. Obviously as it is, the market is trying to look for a direction and the possibility of seeing a break out soon is getting imminent. Where we break out to at the moment will actually determine what the market would be like but however the move wants to be, we still have a point below us that has really formed a huge support and only when we break lower than $5700 before we can actually get to see any major big move, but for now, nothing is certain. |
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trako
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October 10, 2018, 11:56:38 AM |
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Waiting for a big wave. If the wave is in the upward direction, it will be good for us. but it won't take long. If the movement is negative, it may take a long time to recover. but investors who know this situation will turn the situation into an opportunity.
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rickadone
Legendary
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Activity: 1176
Merit: 1024
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October 10, 2018, 01:39:46 PM |
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I also predict that it will go down more deeper, and its possible to touch the $3000 price before the bull run starts. But like i said it is just my own predictions and i cant really tell when it it happen, so i start to hold mine and set untouchable after the coming event of dip.
No one can predict the future as that actually does not make any sense at all. The only thing you can do most of the time is to just monitor the trends and then see how you can at least take advantage of it when it comes. No one can see tomorrow, and either the market goes down or up, only time can tell. Nevertheless, the bitcoin market is in a sideways movement at this point and the possibility of anything is still intact, which could be either tending towards the bears side or the bulls side but whatever it is, I guess the only thing is to take advantage of any side that comes. |
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hawkins
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October 10, 2018, 04:37:54 PM |
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I also predict that it will go down more deeper, and its possible to touch the $3000 price before the bull run starts. But like i said it is just my own predictions and i cant really tell when it it happen, so i start to hold mine and set untouchable after the coming event of dip.
No one can predict the future as that actually does not make any sense at all. The only thing you can do most of the time is to just monitor the trends and then see how you can at least take advantage of it when it comes. No one can see tomorrow, and either the market goes down or up, only time can tell. Nevertheless, the bitcoin market is in a sideways movement at this point and the possibility of anything is still intact, which could be either tending towards the bears side or the bulls side but whatever it is, I guess the only thing is to take advantage of any side that comes. yeah, that's right, no one can predict to be very accurate. everyone just speculates on their price target, but I feel more that is hope. well, I also hope that the price of bitcoin will be a very high pump in the future, but of course it's just speculation. despite so much good news lately, but until now I still haven't seen bitcoin prices rise significantly |
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Joohansson
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October 10, 2018, 07:43:54 PM |
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I think something big will start Oct 14 because of the simple fact that the price has no more runway. It must break the trend in either direction so my bet is up by an order of magnitude coming year. Made my own stupid nice little prediction graph. I hate these, but why not =)  |
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figmentofmyass
Legendary
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Activity: 1652
Merit: 1483
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October 10, 2018, 10:33:32 PM |
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I think something big will start Oct 14 because of the simple fact that the price has no more runway. It must break the trend in either direction so my bet is up by an order of magnitude coming year.
price could stay sideways right through the triangle apex. i've seen it dozens or maybe even hundreds of times. they're just made up lines that we draw on a chart, ya know  according to bulkowski--- The average distance to the breakout is 64% of the way to the triangle apex (where the trendlines join). The most powerful happen 80% to 85% of the way to the apex. in my experience, anytime we get near the end of the apex, the "breakout" is less reliable. |
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BitcoinMyBlood
Jr. Member
Offline
Activity: 67
Merit: 1
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October 11, 2018, 01:51:27 PM |
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The quiet before the storm is here. I’m not sure how much longer this sideways price action can go. A big move is coming. I still think we have a good dump coming taking us to $3000 before the next bull run. What’s your prediction?
Disclaimer: I’m Hodling
Who can say like this? it may be up or down and no one knows this reality of price increase and decrease which wholly depends upon the demand rate when increases the price goes up and when decreases price goes down. Its major dependency is only on demand rate and nothing more affects much as compared with the demand rate. However, the market will recover from current conditions into favorable conditions once again in future upcoming days and can happen any time. |
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