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Author Topic: Tom Lee: Bitcoin Price Starting to Reverse, 2 Catalysts Will Drive it Higher in  (Read 195 times)
HabBear
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October 12, 2018, 03:23:57 AM
Last edit: October 12, 2018, 03:36:09 AM by HabBear
 #21

Tom Lee from FundStrat is notoriously wrong, he's the worst bitcoin predictor on the web!
he is not exactly predicting anything although it may seem like it. he is mostly hyping things up while advertising his company!

So you agree with, thank you.

It's all marketing hype. And if he's marketing under the guise of advice he's a fraud.


That's an illogical reason for a support level. How can bitcoin miners control buy or sell activity? I'm not talking about the transactions - of course they can halt transactions - but how can they direct the flow of those transactions? They can't.
it is logical but a logic that is based on false information. the logic is that it costs miners X dollar to mine bitcoin so if it goes below X they will no longer sell removing a sell pressure on the market.

The sell pressure only exists if the volume of bitcoin they're earning and withholding is material to the broader market trade volume on any given day.

On blockchain.info the Total Transaction Fees average per day is about 25BTC. The total Transaction Volume average per day is about 100,000BTC. If the theory is that bitcoin miners will hodl their transaction fees if the price gets to breakeven for them, that amounts to 0.025% of the total daily transaction volume (using our example). That's not enough to move the market!

Logical fallacies are worse than illogical theories because they trick people into believing they are real.

Tom Lee is like a fraudster medicine man from the 1900s.
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October 12, 2018, 03:45:14 AM
 #22

Just realized my math is off because I'm not including the block awards...see my corrections below.

On blockchain.info the Total Transaction Fees average per day is about 25BTC. The total Transaction Volume average per day is about 100,000BTC. If the theory is that bitcoin miners will hodl their transaction fees if the price gets to breakeven for them, that amounts to 0.025% of the total daily transaction volume (using our example). That's not enough to move the market!

  • Average daily total block awards in USD: $12.5M
  • Average daily miner transaction fees in USD: $156,250
  • Average total bitcoin transaction volume in USD: $625M

(Avg daily block awards + avg daily miner transaction fees) / Avg toal bitcoin transaction volume = percentage of miner income to total transaction volume (and materiality to move the market)

($12.5M + $0.156250M) / $625M = 0.02 or 2% of the market.

Anyone here believe that a withholding 2% of the daily trading volume of the market is going to influence the price in a meaningful way?

I don't.
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