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Author Topic: 2014 vs 2018  (Read 631 times)
WinslowIII
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October 10, 2018, 04:35:41 PM
Last edit: October 10, 2018, 04:45:59 PM by WinslowIII
 #1

So let's compare the hangover years after the last 2 halving pumps.

2014: the year of the alts, every week several coins would pump 10x+, some pumped 100x in a week or 2. Exchanges were free to use anonymously.

2018: Every exchange now requires users to jump through hoops with identity verification/kyc bullshit. US citizens are banned from using most exchanges.
The alt scene it completely dead, if a coin goes up by 2x over a month that is a huge deal. Trading alts to make more bitcoins is nothing but a memory.

What is the result of these differences - is it possible bitcoin will never pump again due to crypto trading action being permanently dead and trading becoming so difficult and transparent it's no longer worth playing with?
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October 10, 2018, 05:36:18 PM
Merited by suchmoon (4), JayJuanGee (1)
 #2

There is no reason Bitcoin would die. Maybe it means the shit altcoin market will die as the market matures (though I doubt it). Right now it is better to compare to 2015. 2015 was when the last cycle hit the bottom of the market and hung out there ($200-$300) for a bunch of months. We seem to already be out of the bear market (2014) and we are now in the low volatility not much happening phase between before the next bull market kicks up in the coming months. Granted in 2015 there were probably plenty of alts bouncing around as well.

But while volatility in the alt market was up back then as compared to now, remember the size of the alt market was absolutely microscopic compare to how large it is now. The altcoin market (or just non-bitcoin market if you consider ETH not an altcoin) is $100 billion. Back in 2014/2015 the altcoin market was less than a billion! The altcoin market is literally 100 - 200 times larger now than it was back then, so yea of course it is going to be less volatile now. It's still full of mostly shit but now it takes a lot more money to move that shit around.
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October 10, 2018, 06:01:03 PM
 #3

So let's compare the hangover years after the last 2 halving pumps.

2014: the year of the alts, every week several coins would pump 10x+, some pumped 100x in a week or 2. Exchanges were free to use anonymously.

2018: Every exchange now requires users to jump through hoops with identity verification/kyc bullshit. US citizens are banned from using most exchanges.
The alt scene it completely dead, if a coin goes up by 2x over a month that is a huge deal. Trading alts to make more bitcoins is nothing but a memory.

What is the result of these differences - is it possible bitcoin will never pump again due to crypto trading action being permanently dead and trading becoming so difficult and transparent it's no longer worth playing with?
Trading is the only hope of crypto hype but current situation most of the investors are panic in crypto investment. So we need some legalisation or crypto adoption because peoples are believe the government or private industries so they adopt the Bitcoin or altcoin surely it will going to moon. I think we don't consider the past and present status of crypto because already it will make big impact of crypto in entire world so we need more crypto hunters in this situation.
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October 10, 2018, 06:24:47 PM
 #4

What is the result of these differences - is it possible bitcoin will never pump again due to crypto trading action being permanently dead and trading becoming so difficult and transparent it's no longer worth playing with?

The number of people involved in 2017, and in those ye olden times there was just as much 'bullshit' as today, was vastly higher than 2013. Looks like they're happy enough with things as they are.

It's always easy to think things will never improve when they're dead, flat or sideways. Then it seems painfully obvious in retrospect that excitement was due.

Alts in 2017 were so empty and so insulting I don't see how they can do any more than a cursory pump until they're fully deflated. They have a long way to go before all of the hot air is gone from them. In 2014 they were still tiny and didn't have to justify their valuations. They were toys. Now they're a daily reminder of how stupid people are.

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October 10, 2018, 08:28:56 PM
Merited by OgNasty (1)
 #5

What is the result of these differences - is it possible bitcoin will never pump again due to crypto trading action being permanently dead and trading becoming so difficult and transparent it's no longer worth playing with?

The number of people involved in 2017, and in those ye olden times there was just as much 'bullshit' as today, was vastly higher than 2013. Looks like they're happy enough with things as they are.

It's always easy to think things will never improve when they're dead, flat or sideways. Then it seems painfully obvious in retrospect that excitement was due.

Alts in 2017 were so empty and so insulting I don't see how they can do any more than a cursory pump until they're fully deflated. They have a long way to go before all of the hot air is gone from them. In 2014 they were still tiny and didn't have to justify their valuations. They were toys. Now they're a daily reminder of how stupid people are.

But back then, there were many opportunities to make a lot of money or make your bitcoin holding grow exponentially by playing with the shitcoin pumps. Now, this opportunity seems gone forever due to the super high valuations of the top 100 coins, the lack of new coins/icos and all this stupid kyc garbage at every exchange. So basically, the only way for new people to enter (or old people to grow their crypto holdings) is by buying large mkt cap coins with fiat. My question is what made crypto great seems to have been taken away - anonymity and volatility. What's really the point vs just playing the stock market now? are we down to the only hope being mainstream adoption? if that's the case I don't really see another pump anytime soon, possibly never, since the speculation factor seems gone. Actual adoption has never done anything for crypto prices, the mere speculation that it would in the future is the only thing that has driven prices.
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October 10, 2018, 08:51:41 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #6

So let's compare the hangover years after the last 2 halving pumps.

2014: the year of the alts, every week several coins would pump 10x+, some pumped 100x in a week or 2. Exchanges were free to use anonymously.

2018: Every exchange now requires users to jump through hoops with identity verification/kyc bullshit. US citizens are banned from using most exchanges.
The alt scene it completely dead, if a coin goes up by 2x over a month that is a huge deal. Trading alts to make more bitcoins is nothing but a memory.

What is the result of these differences - is it possible bitcoin will never pump again due to crypto trading action being permanently dead and trading becoming so difficult and transparent it's no longer worth playing with?

You also forgot one factor, there's are less trading platform in 2014, majority are playing in Mt. Gox. But it was hacked, the landscape change that's why it went dry from 2013-2014.

In 2018, there's a lot of regulations due to the 2017 hype, well alts went dead because of the same thing that brought it to life, ICO. A lot turns out to be scam, plus majority of projects that holds Ethereum dumps their reserves to liquidate in order for the project to maintain its business.

And then there's this thing, investors are getting smarter as well. They wouldn't normally just throw their money in the bear market. They decided to wait for good news before jumping again.
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October 10, 2018, 09:19:18 PM
Last edit: October 10, 2018, 10:41:29 PM by WinslowIII
 #7

That's a good point - investors are smarter now, so that is another reason it is much less likely to pump big again - stupid money is gone.

I see crypto:
1. not fun anymore
2. not exciting anymore
3. looking like the only winners anytime soon (or possibly ever will be from here) are people who got in over a year ago and no opportunities to make up for that with trading since volatility is out the window

Someone say something optimistic
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October 10, 2018, 10:19:23 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #8

So let's compare the hangover years after the last 2 halving pumps.

2014: the year of the alts, every week several coins would pump 10x+, some pumped 100x in a week or 2. Exchanges were free to use anonymously.

2018: Every exchange now requires users to jump through hoops with identity verification/kyc bullshit. US citizens are banned from using most exchanges.
The alt scene it completely dead, if a coin goes up by 2x over a month that is a huge deal. Trading alts to make more bitcoins is nothing but a memory.

not quite accurate. early-mid 2014 was alt season. during that time, BTC was arguably in a sideways market following the crash. by late 2014 when the bear market was in full swing, alts were a goddamn bloodbath.

alts go in cycles just like BTC---in a bullish/sideways BTC market, they can pump. when BTC is in the throws of a bear market, you should generally stay as far as possible.

What is the result of these differences - is it possible bitcoin will never pump again due to crypto trading action being permanently dead and trading becoming so difficult and transparent it's no longer worth playing with?

this is just the hangover period. it's a necessary part of the market cycle. just wait until the consensus is that "alts are dead" or "bitcoin will never pump again". it's when everyone has given up on the market and the hype is dead that sellers have usually dried up---everyone who plans to sell has already sold. that's when pump season can happen again.

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October 10, 2018, 10:27:43 PM
Last edit: October 10, 2018, 10:42:03 PM by WinslowIII
 #9

So let's compare the hangover years after the last 2 halving pumps.

2014: the year of the alts, every week several coins would pump 10x+, some pumped 100x in a week or 2. Exchanges were free to use anonymously.

2018: Every exchange now requires users to jump through hoops with identity verification/kyc bullshit. US citizens are banned from using most exchanges.
The alt scene it completely dead, if a coin goes up by 2x over a month that is a huge deal. Trading alts to make more bitcoins is nothing but a memory.

not quite accurate. early-mid 2014 was alt season. during that time, BTC was arguably in a sideways market following the crash. by late 2014 when the bear market was in full swing, alts were a goddamn bloodbath.

alts go in cycles just like BTC---in a bullish/sideways BTC market, they can pump. when BTC is in the throws of a bear market, you should generally stay as far as possible.

What is the result of these differences - is it possible bitcoin will never pump again due to crypto trading action being permanently dead and trading becoming so difficult and transparent it's no longer worth playing with?

this is just the hangover period. it's a necessary part of the market cycle. just wait until the consensus is that "alts are dead" or "bitcoin will never pump again". it's when everyone has given up on the market and the hype is dead that sellers have usually dried up---everyone who plans to sell has already sold. that's when pump season can happen again.


You aren't acknowledging my point about the current lack of volatility (opportunity) and how much of a GD pita it is to even be accepted to trade on todays exchanges. Ffs, most have banned US citizens. Not only that, anonymity is out the window. These are the changes I am talking about, how can crypto pump again in this horrid environment?
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October 10, 2018, 10:59:04 PM
Merited by gentlemand (1)
 #10

You aren't acknowledging my point about the current lack of volatility (opportunity) and how much of a GD pita it is to even be accepted to trade on todays exchanges. Ffs, most have banned US citizens. Not only that, anonymity is out the window. These are the changes I am talking about, how can crypto pump again in this horrid environment?

lack of volatility is just part of the market cycle. markets don't just bubble and crash all day every day. the vast majority of time is spent in ranging consolidation at lower volumes. this is true of all markets, not just crypto. we just had a massive 2-3 year bull market. have some patience. Wink

the regulatory environment is frustrating, but it's just creating a tiered environment. i'm a trader from the USA. i use a combination of binance and bitmex to trade altcoins without KYC, as well as decentralized exchanges

i also use GDAX for my "legit" trades since i did KYC there, and it seems like they're planning to list a bunch of new markets. i hate KYC and limit the places i'm willing to do it, but you'd be surprised at how many people don't even give it a second thought. it's also not an issue for corporate traders and firms/funds.

i really think the lull in hype and volume has everything to do with the fact that we just had a bubble last year, not the current situation with exchanges.

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October 10, 2018, 11:33:26 PM
 #11

Alts in 2017 were so empty and so insulting I don't see how they can do any more than a cursory pump until they're fully deflated. They have a long way to go before all of the hot air is gone from them.
I have seen more Bitcoiners say that throughout the years, and each time they have been proven wrong. In current environment it makes no longer any sense to think that altcoins will go away or deflate entirely.

We might not like what altcoins are doing, but there is enough space for other networks to function alongside Bitcoin. They need to figure out how to turn speculation into actual use.

Once the use starts to take over, some of the altcoins will no longer be the crap we right now think they are. In the same way, Bitcoin hasn't really gained much use throughout the last years. It's 95% speculation 5% use.

Back in the very early days it was the exact opposite. 95% usage 5% speculation. It was an actual currency.

BSV is not the real Bcash. Bcash is the real Bcash.
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October 10, 2018, 11:38:03 PM
 #12

"Back in the very early days it was the exact opposite. 95% usage 5% speculation. It was an actual currency."

You mean when it had a million dollar market cap and hardly anyone thought it would actually be worth anything significant?
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October 10, 2018, 11:59:35 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #13

There is no reason Bitcoin would die. Maybe it means the shit altcoin market will die as the market matures (though I doubt it). Right now it is better to compare to 2015. 2015 was when the last cycle hit the bottom of the market and hung out there ($200-$300) for a bunch of months. We seem to already be out of the bear market (2014) and we are now in the low volatility not much happening phase between before the next bull market kicks up in the coming months. Granted in 2015 there were probably plenty of alts bouncing around as well.

I wasn't paying much attention to alts back then, but what you're saying about BTC price action definitely resonates with me. In 2015, I unfortunately was viewing the post-crash sideways as a bearish consolidation, so I kept shorting it......old trading wisdom often says that a trend followed by sideways means continuation is coming.

I actually did pretty well in fiat terms back then because the market kept giving back gains, but lost a lot of coins. Lesson learned! Now I'm well aware this type of price action can be a launch pad as well. I definitely wouldn't be selling coins here.

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October 11, 2018, 12:37:47 AM
 #14

I agree with your statement,it's easier to make profit and see the coin price multiply in past years, now we got tons of alt and tons of regulations for crypto, and the kyc requirement make the crypto investment same with Fiat investment,so the regulations is disadvantage for crypto, and I think we won't see any huge rising anymore in crypto


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October 11, 2018, 02:38:26 AM
 #15

I agree with your statement,it's easier to make profit and see the coin price multiply in past years, now we got tons of alt and tons of regulations for crypto, and the kyc requirement make the crypto investment same with Fiat investment,so the regulations is disadvantage for crypto, and I think we won't see any huge rising anymore in crypto

How can crypto go back to the good days? I fear it's only going to get worse from here, and what made crypto cool is gone forever. Wtf is the value in it now with no anonymity, no way to transfer it freely around exchanges, no volatility opportunity to increase wealth, US citizens being locked out - I think this scene is dead man walking.
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October 12, 2018, 07:10:08 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #16

What is the result of these differences - is it possible bitcoin will never pump again due to crypto trading action being permanently dead and trading becoming so difficult and transparent it's no longer worth playing with?
What happened in the past doesn't really have to repeat itself at all. What happened in 2014 was related to mtgox and right now we do not have anything remotely similar to mtgox happening yet price keeps falling and not increasing.

It is true that the only similarity is people got really excited and many people said "I wish I bought at 250 dollar prices before it went to 1400 dollars" yet when it was $1400 they didn't (me included) purchased it and when the price fell down they were like "told you!" and then it reached $20k.

It was still at around 900 dollars at around 2017 last year summer before it skyrocketed. So, we may or may not wait a long time but I doubt it would be similar.
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October 12, 2018, 08:40:09 AM
 #17

How can crypto go back to the good days? I fear it's only going to get worse from here, and what made crypto cool is gone forever. Wtf is the value in it now with no anonymity, no way to transfer it freely around exchanges, no volatility opportunity to increase wealth, US citizens being locked out - I think this scene is dead man walking.

No thats not really the case, the base protocol is improved if anything.    I was trading around 2014 just the same and the failure of a major exchange at that time seemed more negative then now, again it was not a failing of the protocol.
Peer to peer the crypto space remains just as able as previous years.   Centralised sites of trading is always its own risk and benefits but not a description of overall sucess or usage for BTC.   

Another point most important is that USA is not BTC, this is only one country and to me BTC was always about the billions around the world who especially do not benefit from the current banking system.    The attractions for someone in the west who can transfer instantly was always more questionable but a cheap to use network in many other countries is often not there and BTC continues to have a good base case for usage

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October 12, 2018, 09:21:07 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #18

So let's compare the hangover years after the last 2 halving pumps.
you are looking at things in a very simplified way by using halving as a point of reference for a 4 year long period! no market is affected by one cause like halving like this for 4 years!

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2014: the year of the alts, every week several coins would pump 10x+, some pumped 100x in a week or 2. Exchanges were free to use anonymously.
1. from the early days that altcoins were created with the goal of being pumped and dumped we are having big altcoin pumps nearly every day. it has never been consistent 10x per day but pretty close to it and it is still happening as we speak today.
2. again from early days whenever an exchange needed to work with fiat and banks they were asking for KYC because that was required of them. these days in some countries regulations are becoming more serious but I don't see your point in mentioning this here!

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The alt scene it completely dead, if a coin goes up by 2x over a month that is a huge deal. Trading alts to make more bitcoins is nothing but a memory.
the alt scene is pretty much the same bullshit as ever. just because YOU don't see more than 2x pumps over a month that doesn't mean they aren't happening. of course the 2017 pumps has left most of them damaged and still dumping but the big pumps are still happening because the pumpers still want money and there are enough newbies left to scam.

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What is the result of these differences - is it possible bitcoin will never pump again due to crypto trading action being permanently dead and trading becoming so difficult and transparent it's no longer worth playing with?
bitcoin will never pump again. in fact it has been about 5 years that bitcoin is not pumpable because the market has grown big enough that prevents any "pump" from happening. besides bitcoin is not some pump and dump shitcoin that you can pump!

none of the things you said so far has anything to do with bitcoin though! bitcoin price will continue to rise as its adoption is going to continue to grow. with more demand and its scarce supply that is inevitable.

but no it will never be pumped again. 2013 was the last time we saw a pump performed by Mt Gox.

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October 14, 2018, 03:36:46 AM
 #19

Pursuer if you don't think 2017 was a pump and alts are going 10x weekly these days I'd like to know what drugs you are on, because they must be really goooood.
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October 14, 2018, 05:52:56 AM
 #20

Pursuer if you don't think 2017 was a pump and alts are going 10x weekly these days I'd like to know what drugs you are on, because they must be really goooood.

your problem is that you are looking at altcoins and their pump and dumps. then take a look at a small portion of bitcoin price rise and then make your decision and call the whole bitcoin rise a "pump"!

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