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Author Topic: Has the Casascius market panned out how you expected?  (Read 307 times)
gentlemand
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October 13, 2018, 01:03:06 PM
 #1

Now the youngest funded Casascius coin is about five years old now I'd like to hear some thoughts from peeps about the market for them.

When I first bought a Casascius coin in 2013 they seemed cool and I wasn't too arsed with the idea of them as any type of investment. I just fancied owning some.

I presume for others though they were bought with the intention of flipping them a while later for more than they paid for them. I remember error coins often going for 4-6 BTC. Obviously BTC was comparative peanuts back then. It isn't now.

I for one would never have paid a major BTC premium as I always expected them to wilt as the value of Bitcoin itself got higher and so it has proven. Whatever premium I paid was cancelled in my head. Or perhaps you bought with fiat in which case you're golden no matter what.

With that in mind are there people here who are properly narked that Casascius coins seem to be semi forgotten or are they looking at decades down the line? Did people expect them to be more desired and revered by now? Do you fully expect them to get their due eventually?  

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October 13, 2018, 01:10:33 PM
 #2

Long long term hodler. Their time will come once BTC becomes the worlds major currency

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October 13, 2018, 01:31:58 PM
 #3

I always looked at the premium in USD.  I bought most of my Cas corns from 2014-15.  When I did I would buy the equivalent premium in digital BTC.  For example, I bought this corn when btc was around 400 usd, at the same time I bought 600 usd in digital btc via those lizard people at Coinbase.  In dollar terms, premiums have grown quite a bit.  I would argue that dollar terms are clearly the way to view premiums.



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October 13, 2018, 01:36:33 PM
 #4

I always looked at the premium in USD.  I bought most of my Cas corns from 2014-15.  When I did I would buy the equivalent premium in digital BTC.  For example, I bought this corn when btc was around 400 usd, at the same time I bought 600 usd in digital btc via those lizard people at Coinbase.  In dollar terms, premiums have grown quite a bit.  I would argue that dollar terms are clearly the way to view premiums.

Absolutely. But I wonder how many people took that route. It's by far the most pragmatic one but more than a few probably chucked already owned BTC at buying them.

It's far from the end of the world. It would irritate me somewhat if I'd done that. If I remember rightly I took up my first sig campaign to pay a Casascius premium so it was earned money that otherwise I wouldn't have had.

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October 13, 2018, 02:07:38 PM
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 #5

I like loaded coins because they are hard to spend.

If you have BTC in your wallet it's so easy to get tempted to buy luxury things.

Coins are in the drawer in 5 years. We all hope 100K$ then.

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October 13, 2018, 02:14:59 PM
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I like loaded coins because they are hard to spend.

If you have BTC in your wallet it's so easy to get tempted to buy luxury things.

Coins are in the drawer in 5 years. We all hope 100K$ then.

I tend to agree with this.  Almost a premium to have to hold the btc and not spend it or buy some shitcoins with it that turn to vapor.  Cas coins are worth more than they are going for now, just not a big enough market for them yet.  Most people that would buy them already have enough  Wink
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October 13, 2018, 02:21:11 PM
 #7

~All Casascius coins were paid in bitcoins -- no matter how much BTC/USD was at the time. This has resulted in pretty high premiums in general, fiat-wise.

I expect Casascius coins to hold a significant "base premium" BTC-wise regardless of BTC/USD. We've seen this already: premiums have been relatively steady even when BTC/USD has moved 20x up.

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October 13, 2018, 02:47:34 PM
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~All Casascius coins were paid in bitcoins -- no matter how much BTC/USD was at the time. This has resulted in pretty high premiums in general, fiat-wise.

I expect Casascius coins to hold a significant "base premium" BTC-wise regardless of BTC/USD. We've seen this already: premiums have been relatively steady even when BTC/USD has moved 20x up.

Premiums have been steady, in BTC terms?  I am not sure if that is what you mean, but if so, no.  Cas silvers went for 3-4 btc in 2014, 2011 errors same.  Now, half that at best.

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October 13, 2018, 02:59:12 PM
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~All Casascius coins were paid in bitcoins -- no matter how much BTC/USD was at the time. This has resulted in pretty high premiums in general, fiat-wise.

I expect Casascius coins to hold a significant "base premium" BTC-wise regardless of BTC/USD. We've seen this already: premiums have been relatively steady even when BTC/USD has moved 20x up.

Premiums have been steady, in BTC terms?  I am not sure if that is what you mean, but if so, no.  Cas silvers went for 3-4 btc in 2014, 2011 errors same.  Now, half that at best.

Relatively steady. Latest ungraded 1 BTC Cas silver I saw went for 1.5 BTC. That's a premium of 0.5 BTC compared to 2-3 BTC premiums in 2014, when Bitcoin price was maybe averaging at $500 through the year. So premium back then was maybe 5x of what it is right now, however BTC/USD is 10x of what it was back then. Cas premiums were around this during the >$15k BTC levels too. I think this tells about premiums being better related to BTC than BTC/USD.

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October 13, 2018, 03:24:51 PM
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People were paying 1.6 BTC for the 0.1 BTC silver cas coins not that long ago... Obviously premiums have dropped substantially in BTC terms. Luckily, valuing things in BTC over lengths of time is a fools errand due to the volitility.  Using something like gold or fiat would tell the valuation story much more accurately.

At least for me, I thought they were a great innovation and I wanted to own them. Very few people have even been able to build on that innovation today.  I can think of no Bitcoin memorabilia I’d rather own and in spite of the price in BTC terms falling, leading some to ignorantly proclaim losses, my Casascius coins are still one of the top 3 performing investments I’ve ever made.  The only unexpected part to me, was just how valuable they would become so quickly.

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October 13, 2018, 03:34:34 PM
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People were paying 1.6 BTC for the 0.1 BTC silver cas coins not that long ago... Obviously premiums have dropped substantially in BTC terms. Luckily, valuing things in BTC over lengths of time is a fools errand due to the volitility.  Using something like gold or fiat would tell the valuation story much more accurately.

At least for me, I thought they were a great innovation and I wanted to own them. Very few people have even been able to build on that innovation today.  I can think of no Bitcoin memorabilia I’d rather own and in spite of the price in BTC terms falling, leading some to ignorantly proclaim losses, my Casascius coins are still one of the top 3 performing investments I’ve ever made.  The only unexpected part to me, was just how valuable they would become so quickly.

1.6 for a Cas Tenth used to be a great deal.  Example:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1100176.0


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October 16, 2018, 01:45:30 AM
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 #12

I agree with Bovine for Cass coins bought later.  But the concern at the moment is that BTC is still at a binary decision point in its development: it either dies or has a wild huge upside.  Cass coins will probably under-perform in both scenarios.  Same issue with investing in BTC venture capital.  Success of BTC companies rely on the success of BTC, and thus it has a higher risk profile than just buying BTC, without necessarily any more upside.  I'm really tempted to buy a few Cass coins because they are really cool, but I'm hesitant to bet that it's a better financial decision than just HODLing BTC. 


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October 16, 2018, 09:15:46 PM
 #13

but I'm hesitant to bet that it's a better financial decision than just HODLing BTC.  

I can only see one scenario where they're a better investment and that's the total death of Bitcoin itself. These would live on as a memorial and have some value, but it would be interesting to see if they became caught up in the desire to forget about the whole thing.

Beyond that I would't buy one for any reason other than the desire to own one. Spending 1.5 BTC on a nice 1 BTC coin now probably means kissing goodbye to 0.4-0.499 BTC eventually if the price gets up there.

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