If Greece defaults/collapses anything is possible

[JackH]

By anything I mean that as soon as the current system fails, a new system is bound to take over. Let us all hope that Greece will keep skrewing up and finally go bust. That may allow for Bitcoin to be accepted as a safe haven and a respectable option instead of fiat driven currencies that are defined by scams, corruption and fuck ups all the time.

Great to have you run a country into the ground Mr. Papandreou.

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[Littleshop]

Greece should default.  They really are too far gone to do anything else.  All of these 'bailouts' just hide the problem and even continue Greece to keep building more debt. 

[DeathAndTaxes]

The funny thing is the idiots in Greece have no idea the pain that will come with collapse.

They are protesting the austerity measures which only limit the amount of money Greece can CONTINUE to borrow.

If the debt collapses and Greece is ejected from the EU it will have to face real austerity because it will be unable to borrow anything

[Mageant]

The funny thing is the idiots in Greece have no idea the pain that will come with collapse.

They are protesting the austerity measures which only limit the amount of money Greece can CONTINUE to borrow.

If the debt collapses and Greece is ejected from the EU it will have to face real austerity because it will be unable to borrow anything

As long as the Greeks have the Euro the problem is only going to get worse.
So the sooner they do this the quicker it will be over.

[DeathAndTaxes]

The funny thing is the idiots in Greece have no idea the pain that will come with collapse.

They are protesting the austerity measures which only limit the amount of money Greece can CONTINUE to borrow.

If the debt collapses and Greece is ejected from the EU it will have to face real austerity because it will be unable to borrow anything

As long as the Greeks have the Euro the problem is only going to get worse.
So the sooner they do this the quicker it will be over.

But that isn't why they are protesting.  They are protesting because the austerity asked of them is "too much".  That is the irony.  If the protestors get their wish and the bailout fails, their debt defaults, and they are kicked out of the EU the austerity that will be imposed on them by the financial markets will be many times more severe.

[MoonShadow]

Greece will default eventually.  It was inevitable two years ago.  We are just watching the stages of civil collapse occur on a modern timescale.

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2008/02/five-stages-of-collapse.html

Shortly after it becomes obvious to the majority of the European public that Greece will collapse, it will likewise become obvious that so will Poland, Ireland and perhaps Spain.

If Spain fails, the EMU fails.  If the EMU fails, the Euro fails; and europe will likely collapse into a renewed state of nationalism and distrust of each other.  Likely also followed by a hot war as long repressed tribal greivences return to the surface of public discourse. 

It is far too late for this to be an orderly or civil form of contraction, as far as the European Union is concerned.  I'm not sure about the United States.

[MoonShadow]

But that isn't why they are protesting.  They are protesting because the austerity asked of them is "too much".  That is the irony.  If the protestors get their wish and the bailout fails, their debt defaults, and they are kicked out of the EU the austerity that will be imposed on them by the financial markets will be many times more severe.

That actually depends upon who we are talking about.  The Greek people are no more a homongenous whole than any other society.  If the Greeks repudiate the government's debts, and form a new government quickly, it's just as likely to be beneficial in the near to middle term (5-10 years) for the Greek middle class.  If they go with the plan as it is, even if it works (which is extremely unlikely), it will be at least a decade of austerity.  The time frame matters in the same way that a length of a criminal sentence matters.

[Gabi]

They protest cause they are tired of a fail government that led the whole nation to that shitty situation. They keep paying and paying while the government just waste and waste and now THEY have to pay more to fix all the government fail. Of course they protest!

[DeathAndTaxes]

They protest cause they are tired of a fail government that led the whole nation to that shitty situation. They keep paying and paying while the government just waste and waste and now THEY have to pay more to fix all the government fail. Of course they protest!

Yeah.  Nothing about the required public sector job cuts that are simply unavoidable.  Not protesting about raising income tax and actually collecting taxes (Greece has lowest COLLECTED taxation per capita in the EU).  Not protesting about raising govt funded retirement to .... wait for it ... 60.

Yup they are completely realistic about the pain of austerity that is going to happen one way or another.  Salt of the earth.  

They led THEMSELVES into a shitty situation.  Greece has a "France/Germany" size social programs finances on a tax basis of say Uganda.  Tax evasion is a national past time.  I mean you can have low taxes or a welfare state but you can't have low taxes AND a welfare state.  Something for nothing is always fun until the music stops.

[jago25_98]

It seems impossible to pay but in reality there's a lot more that can happen... looking at the history books there's no limit to the inhumanity of what can happen over debt. Perhaps a group of muslim countries could buy half the country and call it Palestine!

They should default ASAP like Argentina did in 2002. That will be hard too though. When Argentina did many middle class people in particular couldn't get drugs and died evicted.

[MoonShadow]

It seems impossible to pay but in reality there's a lot more that can happen... looking at the history books there's no limit to the inhumanity of what can happen over debt. Perhaps a group of muslim countries could buy half the country and call it Palestine!

They should default ASAP like Argentina did in 2002. That will be hard too though. When Argentina did many middle class people in particular couldn't get drugs and died evicted.

While this is true, look at Argentina now.  That was less than a decade ago.  If they had chosen to pay, they would still have people dying on the streets.  (On some level, they still do, and every other nation on Earth as well; but on a relative level, Argentina would still be laboring under the weight of the IMF if they had accepted the terms)  This is pretty much the same conditions that Greece is in now, with the additional problem that Greece does not have control over it's own fiat currency and the other EU countries that use the Euro are going to suffer some significant knock-on effects regardless of what Greece does next.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Modern Greece has never be able to maintain solvency since it gained Independence.  

In past 200 years it has spent over 50 of those in active default.  It has never had a balanced budget, and before it joined the Euro it had rampant monetary inflation on top of unsustainable debt. So yet another default is unlikely to change anything in Greece.

Argentina could be analogous to someone who had good credit, got cancer, blew through savings and had to file bankruptcy.  Greece is more like the guy who has never paid a debt on time and filed bankruptcy 14 times in last 60 years.  One more isn't going to change anything.

[ydenys]

We had to opt out of FTSE tracking on all of our major policies/investments nearly 2 years ago for obvious reasons. UK government stopped issuing any risk-free products that can beat the inflation 5 months ago.  Now these tax-evading lazy eurozone PIGS plonkers are seriously hurting even solid companies here and over the pond by playing their senseless racial politics. I do not even want to think where that leaves people to invest.

[evoorhees]

Great to have you run a country into the ground Mr. Papandreou.

It's misleading to lay the problems at the feet of any single politician. Politicians are the mirror of the society that elects them, and thus the blame for Greece's troubles is more correctly placed with the large group of people who've sought government solutions to problems in too large a degree for too long.

The same is true for the US - Obama is not really to blame for the real fundamental problems. Rather, it's a couple generations of people who've grown up to believe Government should provide for them.

[ydenys]

Why do most consider these solutions as short-term? These ‘bailouts’ are perfectly flexible and should be viewed as such. Papandreu guy just got too greedy and decided to threaten Germany/France with his ‘referendum’ so they ease the terms a bit. What is fukd up is that those ‘policy makers’ in Eurozone do indeed hate each other badly and may do stupid things despite all the cash shoved into their gaps.

[MoonShadow]

Why do most consider these solutions as short-term?

Because they are not solutions to the underlying social problems that begot the debt to begin with.  It's akin to a middle class family that can't pay the rent because of their oppressive credit card debt payments choosing to apply for another credit card to pay the rent.  Eventually the creditors are going to get wise.  Considering that Greek debt on the secondary market hit an effective interest rate of 205% today, I think that those creditors have already done so in Greece's case.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/11/greek-1-year-bond-yield-hits-205.html

[ydenys]

That is not what I meant. It is the skewed people’s perception that makes them take those terms literally/disallow any practical correction and go on strike moved by a fellow idiot, in turn pushing their PM to drastic action.

Anyway the point is that EU governments' debt was to date considered virtually risk-free mostly due to governments’ ability to issue currency and thus controlling it. This is now invalidated by euro experiment. (Full stop here.)

But practically, how does GR gets out of euro? Surely no-one would want to voluntarily exchange/give up euros for drachma/whatever when it is certain to lose its value faster than BTC recently with no hopes of bounce backs at all? Can Greek-printed euros be withdrawn or sumsuch?

[MoonShadow]

But practically, how does GR gets out of euro?

They get thrown out.

[ydenys]

But practically, how does GR gets out of euro?

They get thrown out.

Oh, cmon. ‘Kick them out’. International tribunal trials for Merkel/Sarkozy in 10 years’ time and Papandreu is a new Greek hero/demigod. This will be delayed/renegotiated/dragged into oblivion.

Rich/mc people’s cash is offshore, Greece’s working class is non-existent and cannot bear inferior currency forced through public worker’s salaries/outlawing/military rule/etc. Step down and you have bloodshed. As they are now it is far cheaper for Merkel to keep/support them within euro then force them out and support them afterwards. The thing is, as I fear, those plonkers may choose otherwise.

[MoonShadow]

But practically, how does GR gets out of euro?

They get thrown out.

The thing is, as I fear, those plonkers may choose otherwise.

That's it exactly.