Is "speculation leaving the market"? What does low BTC volatility really mean?

[timotron]

What do you guys think about the low volatility last days?

I found this:

As for the future of the cryptocurrency market, Charlie Morris of Atlantic House Fund Management in London believes that the low volatility will only temporarily deter speculation, and a sense of boredom or frustration might lead to a surge in prices sometime soon. "Given this bear market is now 10 months old and is getting tired, I’d be inclined to be bullish for the next major move", he told Bloomberg.

Source: https://www.chepicap.com/en/news/4706/is-speculation-leaving-the-market-what-does-low-btc-volatility-really-mean-.html

So Bloomberg is somehow bullish, I am too!

[Pursuer]

As for the future of the cryptocurrency market,

the problem is people only look at the first couple of coins in the "cryptocurrency market" and forget the fact that there are 2500 shitcoins in this market and when you want to talk about it as a whole then you should talk about all the 2500 shitcoins not just the coins on top that started being stable like bitcoin.
and speaking of all of them in the past week there has been 30 coins with the total volume of $20 million that got pumped more than 100% (1x 4000% and 4x 500%). and a total of 150 coins that had a pump bigger than 50% with a total volume of $300 million.

as you can see the market is not at all boring. it is the same as always. bitcoin is stable and undergoing an accumulation phase so day traders are mostly focusing on pump and dumping smaller shitcoins to make profit while bitcoin is stable and come back as soon as the stability was over.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Could be a phase of accumulation before we take a dramatic turn up or down. There’s usually a quiet before the storm (see previous price movements over bitcoin’s lifespan).

In 2015 $150-$250 was a similar price range we were stuck in for a long time.

[figmentofmyass]

Could be a phase of accumulation before we take a dramatic turn up or down. There’s usually a quiet before the storm (see previous price movements over bitcoin’s lifespan).

In 2015 $150-$250 was a similar price range we were stuck in for a long time.

that's all it is---quiet before the storm.

i'd like to think it's the same situation as 2015. and it might be. but i prefer to take things wave by wave. we've got a volatility squeeze on our hands. once we see a real breakout, it should trend for a while---whichever direction it is.

[cindygirl]

Low volatility and low volume like we're experiencing indicate the market is in a state of limbo, people are relatively balanced in their expectation for the future price of bitcoin. Very few people still holding are willing to sell and very few people are looking to accumulate more bitcoin. As other's have said it's the quiet before the storm, a major price movement will occur over the next year or so it's just a question of which way. Price charts show similar patterns before and then an uptrend but no one time is the same as the last.

[davis196]

The "bears" will become "bulls",because the "bear market" is tired?
This is an helluva analysis.Maybe the bear market should rest for a few months of even 1 year.
No,the speculation isn't leaving the market,it's always there and it will never leave,the only difference is just the amount of speculators.

[Wind_FURY]

OP, low volatility is the state of the market when the whalecumulators are most active. But be careful. If the whalecumulators sees high volatility and a rally caused by the speculators, it will take only a push of a button for the whalecumulators to put the price down and release the FUD on all news outlets.

[1Referee]

Speculation is still there, just not as obvious to see for most people here as it was months ago. In case volatility decreases, traders tend to use higher leverage multipliers for their trades to have them still be worthwhile. The difference is that most of the wannabe traders can't work with low volatility and for that reason just don't trade at all, where the institutions and other sharks can continue doing what they have been doing for decades on the stock market without any problems.

Boring for crypto traders means still good enough to trade for most traditional entities being active here.

[Xardasim]

In my opinion the market is getting ready for big movement. Now everyone has their last hope, end of year increase and ETF decision. If this event will not happen and if we will enter 2019 from current price, we can fall below 6k.

[BrewMaster]

OP, low volatility is the state of the market when the whalecumulators are most active. But be careful. If the whalecumulators sees high volatility and a rally caused by the speculators, it will take only a push of a button for the whalecumulators to put the price down and release the FUD on all news outlets.

things aren't that easy though
it will all come down to  the balance of opposing forces. it is not just one whale pushing a button like some of the centralized altcoins are. right now there is a general incentive that is to accumulate at this level and a fear in others who prefer waiting.
as soon as this market incentive changes, the balance of forces will also change and no matter what, if a whale goes against that trend he will be crushed.

[BitHodler]

Platforms as BitMEX are frustrated with how the market is lacking volatility, and I like that. It's actual use that can develop right now. Isn't it amazing that the $100 you received months ago is still roughly worth the same? That's money.

People don't realize how much of an accumulation opportunity they are being offered right now. Even if the price drops a bit from where it is right now, you can use that to lower your previous entry points even further.

If you believe what you invest in, don't let the market sentiment bother you too much. I remember how I last year during the bull run wish I bought more before it started to break through ATH after ATH, and that's what I'm doing now.

[pixie85]

I don't think that speculators are leaving. They're out there waiting for the right opportunity.
It seems that people are tired with this bear market and unwilling to follow pumps because all previous ones ended in the price coming back to the same level of 6000. If you see that the market is going towards the same range you give up, capitulate, wait for it to play out. Confidence will return in time.

[hugeblack]

It is normal. Unfortunately, many people have focused on what happened in 2017 as reference values for Bitcoin fluctuations.
We have seen peaks and bottoms in the range of $ 8,000 and $ 5000; these changes are healthy for cryptocurrencies, abnormal for financial markets and what happened last year.
Perhaps the last stability within the limits of $ 6,000 caused by the lack of good news "Last year was full of positive than this year."

[adaseb]

The reason why the volume is low is because the people who are comfortable with BTC at $6000 have stopped selling. There was alot of volume when we broke $10K because alot of people that bought at $19K or so ended up getting nervious and they closed their positions. Hence the reason why the volume was much much higher a few months ago.

Now we have been in this area for the past couple of months pretty much. We are at the point where there is a shortage of sellers pretty much. The only people selling right now are mostly miners and ICOs. However some miners even stopped selling and are just hoping it starts to turn around and they will sell maybe when we go back to the $10K area.

So from a technical analysis point of view, this might be some short term bottom, however it doesn't mean we will cross $10K or even set a new ATH anytime soon. We can go up from here and still trade sideways.

[pooya87]

The reason why the volume is low is because the people who are comfortable with BTC at $6000 have stopped selling. There was alot of volume when we broke $10K because alot of people that bought at $19K or so ended up getting nervious and they closed their positions. Hence the reason why the volume was much much higher a few months ago.

volume isn't really low though! for example on Bitstamp for the last 12 days that price has not even been moving the average daily price is about 1600BTC or nearly $10 million and i wouldn't call that "low"! and that is just one exchange. according to coinmarketcap.com the last 24 hours volume in total for bitcoin has been $3.5 billion!

all you can say is that it is not as high as when price was shooting up or falling down. which is an obvious statement because people trade more when price is changing more.

[rickadone]

The low we are talking about both low compared to what it used to be and also exchanges are known to meddle with their own volumes to make sure they look like one of the most active places.

We in our country can check it honestly because places that changes from fiat to bitcoin here actually shows how much it was sold without a lie (I mean probably because it really gets low and gets high according to market without hesitation and it really got quite low for couple days like 1-2 bitcoin a day compared to 100+ last December) so I have a chance at looking volume like what it is, maybe not exactly but at least shows me the trend.

I have seen bitcoin volumes to go up as much as 360 btc in our country at the peak last year and than during the august and September months it was insanely low and dropped to 1-2 btc a day and mostly around 4-5 bitcoins at most. Lately it has risen back up a bit to 16 bitcoins a day on average and that tells me even though we are not back to great days, people are expecting it to go back up.

[timotron]

The low we are talking about both low compared to what it used to be and also exchanges are known to meddle with their own volumes to make sure they look like one of the most active places.

We in our country can check it honestly because places that changes from fiat to bitcoin here actually shows how much it was sold without a lie (I mean probably because it really gets low and gets high according to market without hesitation and it really got quite low for couple days like 1-2 bitcoin a day compared to 100+ last December) so I have a chance at looking volume like what it is, maybe not exactly but at least shows me the trend.

I have seen bitcoin volumes to go up as much as 360 btc in our country at the peak last year and than during the august and September months it was insanely low and dropped to 1-2 btc a day and mostly around 4-5 bitcoins at most. Lately it has risen back up a bit to 16 bitcoins a day on average and that tells me even though we are not back to great days, people are expecting it to go back up.

great county, so transparent, I wonder which one is it.

Great study about volume, and I share your idea about people expectation. I see a lot of interest in the streets again in my country.

keep us updated if volumen rises there!

[cluit]

What do you guys think about the low volatility last days?

I found this:

As for the future of the cryptocurrency market, Charlie Morris of Atlantic House Fund Management in London believes that the low volatility will only temporarily deter speculation, and a sense of boredom or frustration might lead to a surge in prices sometime soon. "Given this bear market is now 10 months old and is getting tired, I’d be inclined to be bullish for the next major move", he told Bloomberg.

Source: https://www.chepicap.com/en/news/4706/is-speculation-leaving-the-market-what-does-low-btc-volatility-really-mean-.html

So Bloomberg is somehow bullish, I am too!

I do not think they are leaving the market however the volume is not enough for them to manipulate the way they want to. Right now they are capable of doing it at minor scale but they used to do it a lot more and change it a lot higher and lower, with this low volume of bitcoin it is a lot harder to buy or sell at their levels without disturbing the market all together.

They are probably waiting on something just as we do so they could get back into manipulating, if something huge happens than the market will be alive again and the volume will get higher again and when the volume goes higher than the whales who manipulate the market will comeback. They are not that much different than you and I, they manipulate in a way that they try to buy low and sell high, however they sometimes make it low and make it high themselves for it, that's the only difference.

[dothebeats]

One thing is that the volume is somewhat transferred to another asset/coin that's why there haven't been any movements for bitcoin recently. A slow trading scenario doesn't necessarily mean that volatility is lost (for cryptocurrencies, of course). Do note that there are also other assets in which traders might be invested to and are tending those first since they are more profitable than bitcoin at the present moment. Even I would move my funds into other assets first if I see that they are ripe for the picking and the opportunity is present compared to keeping up with bitcoin while everyone is away.

[Snaic]

In my opinion the market is getting ready for big movement. Now everyone has their last hope, end of year increase and ETF decision. If this event will not happen and if we will enter 2019 from current price, we can fall below 6k.

Yes, I also think so. In many ways, the movement of the market next year will determine how Bitcoin will behave in these two last months of the year. If there is no growth in the cryptocurrency market at this time, there will be a deep disappointment with cryptocurrency users and potential investors. In this regard, the stagnation of the market may be delayed for a long time. I would not like to observe such stagnation also in the first half of 2019.