Bitcoin for Less Than $4000 - Welcome Everyone That Missed the Jamie Dimon Boat

[cellard]

Mainstream media are now reporting clickbaity articles about how "Jamie Dimon, Warren Buffet and Bill Gates were all right" (but they don't mention the 99% of times they are wrong).

The average moonboy idiot that bought because he saw how "this Bitcoin thing is going to the moon" on CNBC back then are also claiming "Bitcoin is dead" and "the dream is over". Most of these guys may have been shaken out of the market now.

Im still hoping for $3k prices but the fact that pretty much everyone that must be bearish for the market to bottom is pretty much bearish already, feels as if we have bottomed or we are really close (again perhaps after that final sharp dip with a fast correction which is how Bitcoin has always bottomed historically)

Everyone might be turning bearish, but it feels a lot more like the "fear" stage of the crash than "capitulation" or "despair." There's still obviously lots of people in pain, and lots of threads asking where the bottom will be. Those people haven't sold yet; they're just underwater. They'll sell the bottom later.

Bitcoin historically bottoms with a final sharp dip followed by a massive rebound. There was no rebound this time; we're just consolidating at the lows. No classic bottom to be seen here.

There's always going to be people predicting lower lows that never happen. For instance this PhD in economics:



These are the guys that become permabears because they are too salty and getting it wrong and have too much ego to admit they were wrong.

Im not saying we've already bottomed but as of right we are definitely oversold and the fundamentals haven't changed. I believe we will retest $5000 again followed by another crash to weed out the final weak hands, then a year of "bitcoin is dead" and the recovery will start creating the next cycle of FOMO along the way for the next halving.

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[cocoadreamboy]

So from all of that, am I right in assuming that you'd confidently say that the bottom will be somewhere around $3000? The only interesting thing to note. What if the miners that were priced out instead decided not to buy bitcoin, meaning the price doesn't increase above mining cost, wouldn't we then see difficulty decrease, lowering the mining cost?

im saying a limited few can afford to be whales and should they decide thy could push it that low.
im saying limited few.
i am not saying confident the price will drop that low as the buy pressure from others is at play too.

EG those that have higher mining costs wont want to waste electric mining at higher costs. so they will use their money to just buy cheap coins. thus resisting against the whales.

anyway. this is all temporary data and it shifts alot.
already i have rechecked bitmain and now there is this
T15(asic boost) = 23thash @$950~
S15(asic boost) = 28thash @$1450~

so using the now advertised S15 now has a magic multiplier of 118.. similar as previous cheap s9's
and the T15 magic number is 109.
and second hand S9 sold at $390 is magic number 104

which at todays LOW hashrate is 36exa..
S9=3744(delivery started this week)
s9=3996(prvious batch already mining)
T15=3924(delivery christmas+ but "QA testing" gives whales coins)
S15=4248(delivery christmas+ but "QA testing" gives whales coins)

yep they want people to buy up their old S9's so lowered the S9's and ramped up the the s15's(savvy)

so we are already staying above $3000... and infact moving a lil higher(mining hash/cost) and away from $3000. even when there was a chance(market whales) of going down to $3000

again anyone making a loss mining will start to put some buying power into bitcoin to move prices up while cheap

my summary point
watching the mining costs has shown more correlation to bottomline markets.. than them people who self draw their own trend lines by hand (no stats just eyes and hand drawing) on market history charts

apologies, I just understood your most recent post, that alters the "magic number". I wasn't aware that the magic number changes that intensely. You really are amazing dude THANK YOU!!!! I've been FRANKED lol