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[HFblogNews]

Date : 9th December 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 9th December 2019.



*Following the OPEC meeting this week and the  surprisingly strong US payroll data, three interest rate decisions are scheduled next week. Other than Central Banks, the event of the week is the UK Parliamentary Election on Thursday.

Monday – 09 December 2019

* RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 22:05) – Due to speak at the AusPayNet Summit, in Sydney.

Tuesday – 10 December 2019

* Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – September’s Chinese CPI is seen unchanged at 0.7% while the PPI figure is expected to decline further to -1.2%. The overall reading for CPI is estimated to post a gain up to 2.9% y/y.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Economic Sentiment for October is projected at -27 from the -22.5 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to decline slightly further to -33.0 from -22.4. A lower than expected outcome, ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment at the start of the month.

Wednesday – 11 December 2019

* Inflation Rate (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.2% November headline CPI rise is expected with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective October readings of 0.4% and 0.2%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y increase of 2.0%, up from 1.8% last month. Core prices should set a 2.3% pace for a second consecutive month. We expect an up-tilt in y/y gains into Q1 of 2020 due to harder comparisons and some lift from tariff increases that should leave gains in the 2.4% area, which may help ease concerns about persistent inflation undershoots of the Fed’s 2% objective.

* Interest Rate decision and conference (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC is widely seen on hold even after the robust payroll data, with no shift in rate policy for the foreseeable future. Indeed, the data validated the pause and left policymakers in a state of Fed Nirvana, at least for now. Fed Chair Powell will reiterate the economy and policy are in a “good place.” There is little risk of any downside “material changes” in the outlook anytime soon given the solid path for jobs growth. And, GDP will likely continue to modestly outpace the official Fed estimates, just as a benign inflation trajectory caps risk of rate hikes from the Fed as well. Hence, the focus will be on the Fed’s quarterly forecast update (SEP) and Chair Powell’s press conference.

Thursday- 12 Decemmber 2019

* Parliamentary Election – Brexit will be a focal point with the December 12 election. While the Conservative party with a working majority is the clear odds-on favourite outcome of the election, the outcome of the general election is by no means a sure-fire certainty, however, especially in light of the predictive failures of pollsters and betting markets at elections in the UK and elsewhere in recent years.

* SNB Interest Rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 08:30) – The central bank is widely expected to keep policy settings unchanged as ongoing uncertainty on the global growth outlook, along with weakness in the Eurozone economy, support the view that the central bank’s negative interest rate and the threat of ad hoc currency interventions remain necessary to keep the franc under control, and prevent inflation from falling. The central bank has kept the door to additional measures open as it keeps a close eye on geopolitical trade tensions and Brexit developments.

* ECB Interest Rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45 &13;30) – Lagarde’s first press conference. The “risk” is that it will be equally uneventful as her testimony before the European Parliament. It is very likely on Thursday, to be confirmed that: The ECB remains ready to act again and tweak all its measures if necessary, but has already done a lot and now needs to keep an eye on the side effects of the very expansionary monetary policy, while politicians need to do their bit to support the economy.The ECB won’t be reducing the degree of stimulus any time soon and we effectively see the central bank on hold through next year, unless there is a major change in circumstance.

Friday – 13 December 2019

* Retail Sales and Industrial Production (USD, GMT 13:30) – A gain is expected up to 0.3% November for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figures, following a 0.3% October headline with a 0.2% ex-auto figure. There’s considerable uncertainty, however, given seasonal distortions around the holidays, especially including Black Friday and Cyber Monday swings, and with six fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 10th December 2019.

FX Update – NZD & GBP remain Bid – 10th December 2019.

[​IMG]

NZD & Sterling

The New Zealand Dollar posted a fresh four-month high versus the Australian Dollar, while NZDUSD and NZDJPY saw two-day highs. A shift in RBNZ policy expectations and an associated rise in NZ yields have been underpinning the kiwi. The 10-year US T-note yield advantage relative to the NZ 10-year yield has narrowed by some 15 bps since late November. It is expected that this trend will taper out at some point, as RBNZ monetary policy is historically sensitive to movements in the currency. The longest rallying kiwi pair is the NZDCAD which is now in its 29th day and 280 pips (4.6 x ATR) north of the key 20-day simple moving average, 19 days over the 50-day moving average and 6 days over the important long term 200-day moving average and psychological 0.8600. Next Resistance is R3 and the upper Bollinger band at 0.8750. MACD and RSI both remain positive.

[​IMG]

Elsewhere in the forex realm, most dollar pairings and associated cross rates have remained in narrow ranges, holding within respective Monday ranges in thinned-out year-end conditions. EURUSD has remained particularly directionally challenged, seeing less than a 10-pip range during the Asia-Pacific session until the entry of the London interbank market. USDJPY managed a 12-pip range. The stellar US jobs report of last Friday has had little lasting impact on the Dollar. Markets seem non-committal, partly due to seasonal considerations and partly amid a certain anxiety ahead of the weekend’s deadline for the US to hike tariffs on a further $160 bln worth of Chinese goods. A delay in this deadline is possible, if a phase-1 deal fails to come to fruition, while an implementation of the new tariffs would mark an escalation in the trade war and cause a significant risk-off response in illiquid year-end global markets.

[​IMG]

Sterling has settled after rallying yesterday, unaffected by the slight dip in GDP and the worse than expected trade balance, Cable holds the 1.3150 pivot point. Markets have factored in a Conservative victory with an outright majority at Thursday’s UK general election, based on public opinion polling, though political pundits have been stressing that undecided votes are making this election tricky to call. Polls have suggested most undecided voters are people who voted for Labour in 2017, suggesting there is a possibility for an unexpectedly strong showing for Labour, however, the surge in tactical voting to prevent a Johnson majority is difficult to calculate, and there have been no clear signs of this. The key YouGov MRP opinion poll will be updated later today; last time (November 27) it predicted a Conservative majority of 67 seats.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 11th December 2019.

FOMC Preview – 11th December 2019.

[​IMG]

FOMC Preview
No policy changes or surprises are expected with today’s announcement (19:00 GMT) and Chair Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later. It will be interesting to see if, as expected, the voting is unanimous this time round. The FOMC members have expressed significant differences of opinion during 2019 as three rate cuts were implemented. The apparent paradox of low unemployment and low inflation, the new “norm”.

The two-digit unemployment rate (U-3) in November edged down to 3.53% from 3.56% in October, and a 3.52% cycle-low in September, all below the 3.58% prior cycle-low in April and a 4.00% rate at the beginning of the year. Current readings remain much lower than the 4.2% long-run unemployment rate projection noted in the September SEP, it is expected that this estimate will be trimmed today.

Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October while the core index rose by 0.2%, for respective y/y gains of 1.8% and 2.3%, versus September figures of 1.7% and 2.4%. Today the November headline is expected to fall again to 0.2% and the core remains flat at 0.2% too. The Fed’s favoured inflation gauge, the PCE chain price measure, rose 1.3% y/y in October and expectations are for an uptick to 1.4% in November. The core PCE chain price measure rose 1.6% y/y in November, versus 1.7% in September, and expectations are for the pace to hold at 1.6% in November. The FOMC’s latest median estimates for 2019 inflation are 1.5% for the headline and 1.8% for the core.

Hence, the focus will be on the Fed’s new quarterly forecasts, with expectations raised and likely to be mostly bullish results with a bump up in the median growth projection and a drop in the median dot to reflect a steady stance through 2020. However, the individual dots are likely to show both, forecasts for cuts and hikes. Chair Powell is expected to reiterate the US economy and policy are in a “good place,” (a phrase he has used a number of times lately) and could sound a little more upbeat after the strong jobs report. But, he will continue to warn of downside risks. The FOMC isn’t likely to announce any new measures on reserve management operations (QE?) or a repo facility. All steady into 2020 and beyond.

[​IMG]

USDIndex remains biased to the down side but has support around 97.40 and the 200-day moving average. A breach of this key support zone brings in 97.00 and the October low of 96.85. A break over 97.80 (the confluence of the 20 and 50-day moving averages) and 98.00 would be required before a re-test of the recent high at 98.50 could be considered.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 12th December 2019.

Lagarde prepares ECB debut – 12th December 2019.

[​IMG]

Policy unchanged
Projections unlikely to change much
Clues about review sought
Style in focus
Presiding over her first presser of the European Central Bank today, Lagarde is expected to confirm once again the current policy setting, giving time to ECB to focus on the planned review of its overall policy framework.

Final Eurozone GDP and PMI readings broadly supported this neutral picture, while the confidence that a deep recession can be avoided is strengthening (Figure 1) despite the fact that German manufacturing and production numbers still look weak. The exports and the overall trade are actually holding up much better than expected, which together with still strong labour markets is underpinning hopes the net exports and consumption will continue to support growth not just in Germany.

[​IMG]
Figure 1 : December German ZEW investor confidence outcome, end the year firmly in positive territory at the highest level since February 2018.
As there is nothing in the data really to challenge the ECB’s overall policy stance, the focus firstly turns into the tone and presentation style that President Lagarde will have. The “risk” is that the presser will be equally uneventful as her testimony before the European Parliament. Lagarde’s team building exercise seems to have worked and at least in public there has been a pretty consistent message since she took over, which is very likely to be confirmed today. Additionally it will be interesting to see whether she will back fully Draghi’s package.

Citi Bank: All key interest rates will likely be left unchanged, and the forward guidance reaffirmed. The main interest at this meeting will be the new Eurosystem staff projections, extended to 2022, to gauge whether the September package will be sufficient to bring inflation back into line with the ECB’s target over the forecast horizon. If not, investors’ attention will quickly turn to the ECB’s toolbox and what instruments the Governing Council would be willing to use and when, in order to defend its credibility in the absence of large fiscal support. The upcoming strategic review of monetary policy will also likely be the focus of many questions.

Hence as reported by Citi, other than Lagarde’s style, ECB projections could also monopolize the attention. Even though, the ECB remains ready to act again and tweak all its measures if necessary, it has already done a lot and now needs to keep an eye on the side effects of the very expansionary monetary policy, while politicians need to do their bit to support the economy.

The central bank won’t be reducing the degree of stimulus any time soon with many analysts supporting that this will continue until mid-2020 unless there is a major change in circumstance.

Central bankers will be conducting a comprehensive review of the policy framework, however, with a special focus on the inflation target. A more symmetric definition, which stresses that the ECB can see through lengthy inflation overshoots as well as periods of too low headline rates is likely to come in the first quarter of next year. The inclusion of owner-occupied housing costs into the HICP number also remains a challenge especially as house prices are rising rapidly in some centres, also thanks to the low interest rate environment.

[​IMG]

Bund yields have nudged higher over the past week, but the German 10-year so far failed to move lastingly above -0.3%. Uncertainty on trade and Brexit are keeping a lid on yields, although there is the risk that if things go the way markets want and a phase one trade deal is confirmed and in the UK PM Johnson gets his majority, there could be a sharp rise in yields, if markets price out further easing and start to look ahead to central banks removing some of the stimulus.

However this is far away for now, while central bankers are not looking eager to add further easing.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 13th December 2019.

Two Fundamental Strategies – 13th December 2019.



An in-depth discussion on how the various assets on the global markets interact with each other and how understanding the nature of these interactions can help traders gauge risk! Join our market analyst, Andria, for a demonstration on:

Commodity prices
Bond spreads
How the two could provide an effective way to discover trends in the market.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 16th December 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 16th December 2019.

[​IMG]

Following a busy week ending with a Conservative victory in the UK election and rising hopes of a potential trade deal between UK and China, attention turns to the BoJ, PBoC and BoE monetary policy meetings next week. However, the developments on the US-China trade front will remain front and centre.

Monday – 16 December 2019
Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08-30-09:00) – The prel. November manufacturing PMI was revised up to 46.9 from 46.6, despite the signs that the weakness in manufacturing is starting to spread. The European PMI for December meanwhile is expected to released at 47.4.
Manufacturing PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK PMI is expected to register an upwards reading to 50.7 after the upwards revision last week at 48.9.
Tuesday – 17 December 2019
RBA Meeting’s Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The RBA minutes provides a detailed assessment of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence.
Employment and Earnings (GBP, 09:30) – Average earnings are expected to have increased by 3.8% in October, above the 3.6% the previous month. The ILO unemployment rate (3M) for October could rise at 3.9% from 3.8%.
Wednesday – 18 December 2019
German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German Business Sentiment Index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. December’s numbers are expected unchanged.
Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK inflation is seen unchanged to the downside in December, at 1.5% y/y, the lowest rate seen since November 2016 and after 1.7% in September. The core should be steady as well at 1.7%.
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Prices are expected to have eased slightly in December, with overall inflation expected to remain at 1% y/y, while core inflation at 1.3% y/y.
Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The overall Canadian CPI and core should hold close to target, while the November Core outcome is expected to slip to -0.2% following the 0.4% jump in October.
Thursday – 19 December 2019
Interest Rate Decision and Conference (JPY, GMT 03:00) – In the last meeting, BoJ kept its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and its pledge to guide 10-year JGB yields around 0% while maintaining its asset buying program. The central bank signaled its commitment to keep interest rates at current levels “for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020”. BoJ Governor said in his statement that cutting rates further are a possible policy option, adding that he doesn’t think that Japan is near the reversal rate. He also said that he doesn’t think the BoJ needs to change the forward guidance now. Hence this is likely to remain the scenario in this week’s Monetary Policy Statement.
Interest Rate Decision (GBP, GMT 12:00) – BoE should remain on hold until Brexit has been resolved. Thus, consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting, however an uTwo of the nine-member MPC dissented in favour of cutting the repo rate by 25 bps
Friday – 20 December 2019
Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – A Q3 GDP growth is expected up to 2.2% from 2.1%, with a -$1 bln trimming for factory inventories alongside a $4 bln hike for construction. The Q4 GDP growth estimate sits at 2.4%, with support from recent reports indicating a -4% Q4 drop in imports that adds to GDP, likely firmness in government purchases, a rebounding residential investment sector, and an expected bounce in equipment spending.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 17th December 2019.

Spectre of “No Deal” Brexit Back – 17th December 2019.



The Pound is down 0.5% on the day against both the Dollar and Euro, and is off by 0.4% versus the Yen. The catalyst was news that UK prime minister Johnson will amend the withdrawal agreement bill to outlaw an extension in the transition period beyond the end of 2020.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 18th December 2019.

FX Update – GBP loses its Johnson Jump – 18th December 2019.



GBPUSD, H4

Sterling posted fresh correction lows against the Dollar and Euro, among other currencies. Cable printed a six-day low at 1.3070, and EURGBP a two-week high at 0.8517. This follows UK prime minister Johnson’s revival of the no-deal Brexit threat yesterday, by pledging to modify the EU withdrawal agreement so that it legislates against any extension in the post-Brexit transition period beyond 2020. I doubt he’s serious, and such legislation could easily be reversed at will, given Johnson’s commanding parliamentary majority. His aim is clearly to strengthen his government’s negotiation hand with the EU, by arming it with a “walk away” option during upcoming negotiations for a new trade deal. he has no-doubt concluded that he got agreement on the his new Withdrawal agreement under a pressing timescale and both parties agreed compromises to push the October 12 document through.

What is clear is that a new trade deal should be able to be drawn up relatively quickly, though the 11 months still looks to be a tall order (witness the 17 months it took for the US and China to come up with a partial revision in the two’s trading terms). Unlike all of the other negotiations the EU has to date had with other nations and trading blocs, where they were starting a long way apart (totally different tariffs, quotas and systems), the UK and EU have 100% common features.

A fillip for Johnson was that all the ratings agencies are now more optimistic on the UK after the election. Both S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings improved their assessment of the UK’s credit outlook after Johnson’s Conservative Party won a majority in last week’s election. S&P changed the country outlook to stable from negative, with analysts seeing a diminished risk of a no-deal Brexit. Analysts at S&P said “Despite the government’s current stance, we expect that the UK will seek, and the EU will grant, an extension beyond December 2020 to negotiate the future relationship between the two.” Fitch meanwhile affirmed the AA rating and took the UK off Rating Watch Negative, thus removing the immediate threat of a downgrade, but the rating agency did maintain the negative outlook. S&P affirmed its credit rating of AA/A-1+. Fitch held the country at AA.

Elsewhere, EURCHF carved out a one-week low at 1.0912, though USDCHF managed to hold above the four-month low seen yesterday. EURUSD drifted lower after closing in New York yesterday just above 1.1100, and matched yesterday’s low at 1.1129. USDJPY edged out a two-day low at 109.41, which was lower mark of a 15-pip range. AUDUSD traded moderately softer, though remained above yesterday’s one-week at 0.6838, which was seen in the wake of the release of RBA minutes from the early-December policy, which showed that policymakers are open for a possible further cut in the cash rate at the next meeting in February.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 19th December 2019.

FX Update & BOC Preview – 19th December 2019.

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GBPUSD, H1

The Dollar has traded moderately softer in thinning year-end markets. This has seen the narrow trade-weighted USD Index (DXY) ebb to a low of 97.30, down from the one-week high seen yesterday at 97.47.

[​IMG]

A rebound in Cable has weighed on the US currency, with Sterling finding a footing after plunging by nearly 3.5% from last week’s post-UK election rally high at 1.3515. Cable’s low yesterday was 1.3060, and the pair has since recovered to the lower 1.3100s, though still remains over half a big figure below the levels that were prevailing ahead of the election.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee has amid its final meeting of the year, and will announce at 12:00 GMT in London today. No change to prevailing settings is widely anticipated, though there will be a focus on the two dissenters, Saunders and Haskell, who last month voted for a 25 bps cut in the repo rate, to see if they will maintain their dovish dissent in light of the strong victory of the Conservative Party at last week’s election. Either way, we expect the BoE to remain on a neutral footing heading into 2020, though, with inflation running at three-year lows at 1.5% y/y, comfortably below target, the BoE won’t be in any rush shift to a tightening bias.

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Elsewhere in forex markets, EURUSD lifted out of the one-week low seen yesterday at 1.1100, but remains mired in narrow ranges in what is now the sixth consecutive session trading on a 1.11 handle. USDJPY has also continued to ply narrow ranges, pivoting through though the pair still managed to scratch out a six-day high at 109.68, which is 2 pips shy of the 17-day high seen last Friday, and 4 pips shy of the seven-month peak seen on December 2. The Australian dollar recovered the losses seen following the wake of the RBA minutes on Tuesday following an above-forecast 39.9k gain in employment, along with an unexpected dip in the jobless rate to 5.2%, from 5.3%. AUDUSD posted a two-day high at 0.6883 moving some 0.42% during the Asian session.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 20th December 2019.

FX Update – Holiday Consolidation– 20th December 2019.



USDJPY, H4
Narrow ranges have continued to be the norm as markets wind down into the Christmas and New Year holiday period. EURUSD has mustered a less than 10-pip range so far today, holding in the lower 1.1100s in what is now the seventh consecutive trading day the pair has been trading on a 1.11 handle. USDJPY has managed a 15-pip range, with the base marked at 109.25. The pair is consolidating below the seven-month high at 109.72 seen in early December, which is the culmination of a rally from the late-August low at 104.45, a three-year low. Rallying global equity markets and a pricing out of Fed easing expectations have been keeping USDJPY buoyant.



While equity markets have settled today, the USA500 yesterday hit a sixth-straight record high, which is the longest streak since January 2018. All three major US indexes posted new record closing highs yesterday. The Santa Rally has certainly come to life this year, The gains came after US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the US and China would sign their Phase-1 trade deal trade pact in early January, and the US House of Representatives having approved the new North American trade deal.



Elsewhere among currencies, the Australian Dollar managed fresh highs, building on gains seen after yesterday’s above-forecast Australian jobs report. AUDUSD printed a one-week high at 0.6900. The Pound has found a footing after tumbling to fresh lows against the Dollar just after the London book closing yesterday. Cable posted a 16-day low at 1.2989, since recouping back above 1.3000, though set to close out today with its biggest weekly loss in just over two years


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 23rd December 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 23rd December 2019.



*Brexit is finally getting underway and global trade talks progressing in this final weeks of 2019. Although, the risk around these events has been trimmed, ample uncertainties remain, leaving scope to further whipsaw markets into the new year.

Holiday-thinned staffing in Europe, Asia and the US in the middle of the week ahead will severely curtail trade, though what this means for volatility is anyone’s guess.

Monday – 23 December 2019

* Leading and Coincident Index (JPY, GMT 05:00) – The indices are expected to come out unchanged at 91.8.

* Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The 0.1% gain that is expected for October GDP will keep Canadian GDP growth weak. Canada’s slowing in GDP growth during Q3 matched BoC expectations, in turn not moving the needle on the outlook for no change in rates for an extended period. GDP slumped to a 1.3% rate in Q3 (q/q, saar), identical to the BoC’s 1.3% estimate from the October MPR.

* BoJ Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The BoJ minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide a detailed assessment of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence.

Tuesday – 24 December 2019

* Christmas Eve – Early close for Major Markets

* Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable Goods is the leading indicator of production in the US. November Durable goods orders are expected to grow 2.4% with a 6.7% bounce in transportation orders, after a 0.5% headline orders increase in October, and a -1.5% decline in September. Boeing orders for planes bounced to 63 in November from 10 in October, with a boost from the Dubai Air Show.

Wednesday – 25 December 2019

* Christmas Day – Nearly all major Markets closed

Thursday- 26 Decemmber 2019

* Boxing Day – Nearly all major Markets closed – Except US and Japan

* kyo Core CPI (JPY, 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good proxy for the Japanese economy’s overall inflation rate. In December, the CPI is expected to have stood at 0.6% y/y, the same as in November, even though projections may be revised when Retail Sales are taken into consideration.

* Retail Sales (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Following a precipitous 14.4% dive in October due to the Japan’s recent sales tax hike, Retail Sales are expected to climb slightly to 4.6% on a m/m basis in November. The overall rate is expected hold lower at 4.6% y/y decline from 7.1% y/y last month.

Friday – 27 December 2019

* EU Bulletin (EUR, GMT 09:00) – European Central Bank launches a new publication, the Economic Bulletin, to replace the ECB Monthly Bulletin. It is published two weeks after each Governing Council meeting and it contains the statistical data that policymakers evaluate when setting interest rates. The report also provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 24th December 2019.

XAUUSD – Trend towards the end of the year– 24th December 2019.



XAUUSD, Day – Although gold prices are significantly less volatile, due to the progress of trade negotiations between the US-China since October, however, this morning, gold prices continue rising further to a new high in the month of 1489.57. This followed as USD slight weakness on the disappointing US durable goods released last night. the data were not in line with market expectations while the uncertainty around Brexit and the US-China trade agreement remains.

In the technical perspective, volatility has clearly decreased since the end of October. The gold futures went down to a 3-month low of 1445.55 on 12 November and gradually sideway until the end of November within the lower territory of the downchannel seen since September. In December meanwhile it started moving northwards towards the upper trendline of the channel, which currently retests. Therefore, it is essential to look whether gold prices will be able to break through the upper border of the channel (solid line).
MACD lines meanwhile, have turn in the positive territory since the UK election day last week. A cross of the signal line above neutral zone could confirm the turn of Gold’s outlook into positive in the medium term.

In addition, during the holiday break, it is possible that the price of XAUUSD may be within the sideways framework, as thin trading conditions prevail.

However, during sparse trading, we sometimes see Flash Crash event as participants closing their positions for year’s end, similar to what we saw in the AUDJPY earlier this year. That is assumed to be caused by low trading volumes.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 2nd January 2020.

FX Update – 2020 Day 1 -January 2– 2nd January 2020.



EURUSD, H1

The Dollar has found a footing after coming under pressure over the Christmas week and earlier this week. Liquidity has picked up, though some centres in Asia have remained closed, including Tokyo (still the most significant Asian market). The narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) has lifted above 96.50, up from the six-month low seen earlier in the week at 96.36. EURUSD has concurrently ebbed back under 1.1210 after pegging a four-month high at 1.1239 on Tuesday, but holds S1 and the key 1.1200 handle.  The US currency is also showing moderate gains against most Asian currencies, including the Yen. USDJPY has lifted to an intraday high at 108.79, up from the three-week low that was seen earlier in the week at 108.47. USDCHF has been the best performing pair so far today, up some 0.41% and back over the key Daily support and psychological level at 0.9700. AUDUSD has also moved down to a key round number and support level at 0.7000.



Stock markets have opened the new year on a strong footing, aided by the PBoC’s decision, announced yesterday, to trim the reserve requirement ratio for banks and inject some 800 billion Yuan ($114.9 billion) in funds for lending, effective Jan. 6. This followed President Trump saying yesterday that the US-China phase-1 trade deal will be signed on January 15 in Washington. There has been no comment from China. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Stock Index rallied by 0.5%, building on the 5.6% gain that was seen in December. The MSCI’s all-country World Index has remained buoyant after posting a record high on December 27.

Elsewhere in the forex markets, the Pound has started the new year on a soft footing, reversing some of the gains seen over the last week. Brexit is set to happen on January 31, at which point the UK will enter an (at least) 11-month transition phase, during which time the country will remain in the EU’s single market and customs union.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 3rd January 2020.

FX Update – January 3 – Risk Off & Weak EZ Data– 3rd January 2020.



EURUSD, H1

The Yen, and to a lesser degree, the Dollar have rallied amid a dash for safe havens following US air strikes that killed the head of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard’s overseas unit. The news also saw gold prices rally by over 1%, and oil prices by over 3%, while stock markets, richly valued after recent gains (Apple shares traded above $300 for the first time yesterday, for instance), declined.



Out of the main currencies, AUDJPY has, not surprisingly, been the biggest mover, with the cross showing about a 1% decline soon after the London interbank open. AUDJPY, which has rallied strongly amid the recent risk-on phase in global markets, dove to a two-week low to breach 75.00 and trade at 74.94. The Cross is down by over 2% from the highs seen on Monday. USDJPY plunged under 108.00 to a two-month low, at 107.90, while AUDUSD fell to a two-week low at 0.6935. The New Zealand Dollar, and most developing-world currencies, also declined, while the Canadian Dollar held up relatively well on the back of the rise in oil prices.



Elsewhere, EURUSD and EURJPY fell to respective one- and three-week low, at 1.1152 and 120.35. Cable and GBPJPY hit four- and eleven-day lows respectively. In stock markets, S&P 500 futures are showing a 1% loss after the cash version of the index hit fresh record highs on Wall Street yesterday. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index turned negative after opening strongly, correcting from 18-month highs. In Europe the GER30 trades down some 1.8% at 13,186.

EURUSD came under further pressure, breaching 1.1140,  as German jobless numbers rose 8K, more than anticipated, French inflation jumped to 1.6% y/y in December, from 1.2% y/y in the previous month and Eurozone loan growth decelerated as loans to non-financial corporations declined to 2.6% from 3.1% in October.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 06th January 2020.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 06th January 2020.



*As we have already entered 2020, with relatively good news in terms of economic growth, the progress on US-China trade, USMCA, Brexit, the fresh Hong Kong protests, ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East and central bank accommodation, will remain inevitably the key events of the year ahead.

Monday – 06 January 2020

* Markit PMIs (EUR, GBP, USD, GMT 08:55-14:45) – The German but also the overall Eurozone composite PMI reading for December are expected to hold steady. The UK Service PMI meanwhile, is expected to come out at a slightly higher level than last month but to remain below neutral at 49.2. The US Markit services rose to 52.2 in the first release from 51.6 in November and is anticipated to remain unchanged for December.

Tuesday – 07 January 2020

* Consumer Price Index (CHF, GMT 07:30) – Expectations suggest that Swiss inflation would have flattened at 0% y/y in December, compared to the fall to 0.1% last month. Meanwhile, the SNB downgraded inflation expectations for 2020 and 2021. The 2019 conditional inflation forecast stands at 0.4%, with a 0.1% forecast for 2020 and a 0.5% forecast for 2021.

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The Euro Area preliminary CPI is expected to come out a tad higher at 1.3% y/y in December, while Core is seen unchanged.

* Trade Balance (USD, GMT 13:30) – The trade deficit is expected to widen in November to -$50.8 bln from -$47.2 bln in October. The exports should rise 0.5% to $208.1 bln, while imports should grow by a larger 1.8% to $258.9 bln.

* Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The index is expected to rise to 54.5 in December from 53.9 in November and a prior 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September of 2018. Most of the “soft data” measures have oscillated around lean but positive territory since June, though with headline hits to some surveys from the UAW-GM strike that lingered into November.

Wednesday – 08 January 2020

* Building Permits (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Building permits are a known leading indicator of the housing and the overall market. Following the decline in dwelling approvals in October, it will be interesting to observe whether permits will increase or pullback once again. The consensus for November is at 4.0% m/m, compared to the drift at -8.1% last month.

* ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 150k for December following the lean 67k November ADP rise.

Thursday- 09 January 2020

* Australia’s Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The trade balance in November could spike to 6,100M from 4,502M last month.

* Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) –One of the restrains for PBOC to ease the monetary policy last year was the rising pork prices, a key component that stoked inflation. Declines in pork prices in December are likely to slow the CPI growth in this period.

* Unemployment Rate (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The Euro Area unemployment rate is expected to stand at 7.5%, the same as in October.

* Housing Starts (CAD, GMT 13:15) – Canadian housing starts are expected to remain positive at 205k, slightly stronger than the 201.3k November figure.

Friday – 10 January 2020

* Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 180k December Non-Farm payroll rise has been forecasted, following a 266k increase in November. The jobless rate should hold steady, average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.1% for a second month in a row. The jobs data face upside risk from firm consumer confidence and a December up-tilt in producer sentiment, but downside risk from the rise in claims through the period of holiday volatility and a lean ADP path.

* Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The plunge in November employment challenges the BoC’s economic resiliency argument. Employment fell -71.2k after a -1.8k dip in October, contrasting with expectations for a modest recovery, while the unemployment rate jumped to 5.9%.  However, the December reading is anticipated to jump back to 20K while the unemployment rate is expected to fall at 5.8% m/m from 5.9% last month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 7th January 2020.

AUD Pressured as tensions persist– 7th January 2020.

[​IMG]

AUDUSD, H1
The Australian Dollar has remained under pressure, despite global stock markets having taken a turn higher as markets reappraise the US versus Iran standoff. A Caixin report saying that China will not increase its annual low-tariff import quotas for US agricultural produce raised doubts with regard to the yet-to-be-signed “phase-1” trade deal. There was also a research note from Citi analysts highlighting that upside Chinese data surprises have been diminishing since mid December. This appeared to weigh on the Aussie, which is widely seen as a liquid China proxy currency.

[​IMG]

AUDUSD dropped just over 0.5% in making a two-week low at 0.6898, while AUDJPY fell by a similar magnitude in making a 26-day low. The pairing and cross are showing respective losses of 1.9% and 1.6% from their closing levels on December 31. Australian OIS is pricing in a 54% probability for the RBA to cut interest rates by 25 bps at its early February policy meeting, up from the around 38% odds that were being factored in late December. Of all the Aussie crosses it is the perky Pound that is the best performer in the London session, up some 0.62% and also printing five-day highs against the Dollar, Euro and Yen today.

[​IMG]

Elsewhere, the Yen weakened against the Dollar and some other currencies, outside the case for AUDJPY, as some of its safe haven premium unwound, though firmed back some in the latest phase. USDJPY lifted to a 108.50 rebound high, up from yesterday’s 107.77 low. The Dollar traded mostly firmer, retracing losses seen yesterday by varying degrees. The narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) rebounded about half of the drop it saw yesterday in lifting back above 96.75. This saw EURUSD ebb back under the 1.1200 level to trade down to 1.1185.

[​IMG]


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 8th January 2020.

FX Update – The Usual Suspects & USDCAD– 8th January 2020.



USDCAD, H1

The Yen surged and then sharply unwound gains in volatile trading during trading in Tokyo. The rally in the Japanese currency was part of a broader dash for safe haven assets and currencies following news that Iran had fired missiles at two US bases in Iraq. The US reported no casualties, and President Trump’s initial tweet responses were notable for the lack of bellicosity, saying that “All is well!” and “So far, so good.” Official Iranian statements were also measured, though warned of  “a painful response” to any further US action, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that “Operation Martyr Soleimani” had only just begun. The more hawkish members of Trump’s Republican party also signalled that Tehran had gravely miscalculated US resolve. Trump said he would make a statement later today, which will be a major focus for markets. More volatility in global markets seems assured given the uncertainty about the situation, although both sides are showing a clear desire to avoid a full-blown war.



The burst of Yen buying drove USDJPY to a three-month low at 107.65 before the pair rebounded to near net unchanged levels in the mid 108.00s. The rebound mirrored a recovery in stock markets in Asia, though most of the indices across the region, while off their lows, have remained firmly in the red. Oil and gold prices also spiked to fresh trend highs before retreating some. EURUSD remained in a narrow range around 1.1150. Sterling ticked moderately higher, but remained within its respective Tuesday ranges against the Dollar and Euro. AUDUSD printed a fresh three-week low at 0.6850 before rebounding back above 0.6880.



USDCAD dropped back below 1.3000 concomitantly with oil prices rising to fresh trend highs following the overnight news. The pairing remained above the three-month low seen on December 31 at 1.2951. The surge in oil prices over the last several months, which has been extended by the flare-up in US-Iran tensions, has been underpinning the Canadian Dollar. USOil is up by some 24% from the lows seen last September. Gains of that magnitude, if sustained, are a big boon to Canada’s terms of trade, hence the correlation between oil prices and the Canadian currency. The Fed’s removing of a forecast for a 25 bps hike in 2020 at its FOMC policy meeting in December has also been weighing on USDCAD, with markets presently discounting about 60% odds for the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps or more by the end of 2020. The pairing looks likely to continue to trade with an overall downside bias. A breach of the 1.2950 support area will bring 1.2900 and even the September 2018 low of 1.2780 into play. A sustained break and breach of 1.3000-50 is required for the pair to move back to the upside. The 20-day moving average and S3 sit at 1.3100.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 9th January 2020.

Is it time for a correction? 9th January 2020.



Yields moved higher and stock markets bounced back, as investors bought into hopes that the US and Iran will step back from deeper military conflict, despite two rockets exploding near the US Embassy in Baghdad last night.

Fears of an immediate escalation into war in the Mideast have been scaled back for now, following Trump’s address on Iran, although the situation clearly remains fragile. The president said Iran appears to be “standing down”, and made no mention of further US military actions. Iran’s overnight missile attack aimed at US forces in Iraq looked to be more of a face-saving operation than anything, and looks to have gone some way to calm markets.

Indeed, Wall Street has rallied sharply following the speech, while Oil prices have tanked. The risk-back-on reaction has been the main driver of USDJPY strength as well. The pair rose to 109.28 amid a broadly weaker Yen, from near 108.60 earlier.

After crossing the 20- , 50- and 200-day SMA yesterday, the asset looks ready to sustain the bullish sentiment in the near term as today’s move above Wednesday’s peak suggested more positive bias in the short term, even in the case of fading geopolitical tensions.

The key upside level comes at the 6-month high and December’s Resistance at 109.70. Hence it will be interesting to see if there is a break above at the end of the day/week. However, as we have already entered the European session bulls might face some short-term dips in the next few hours as the USDJPY presents overbought signs, with RSI testing the overbought barrier while the candles have been flirting with the upper BB line in the past 5 4-hour sessions.  Immediate Support area is at 109.00-109.14.

This said, 109.00 is a key Support level pointing towards a move lower as it will attract sellers getting back in business, while 109.70 is a significant Resistance level pointing towards a switch from a neutral outlook into a positive one in the medium term basis.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

B]Date : 10th January 2020.

FX Update – JPY Weak & NFP Preview10th January 2020.[/B]

[​IMG]

USDJPY, H1
The Yen posted fresh lows as global stock markets hit new record highs, (APPLE, the world’s largest company, moved up over 2% to $308 following good iPhone sales in China) while the likes of the Australian Dollar and many developing-nation currencies rallied. USDJPY, now in its fifth consecutive up day, printed a fresh two-week high at 107.60, which is just 12 pips shy of the seven-month high that was seen in early December. A close over 109.50 today would suggest more upside for the pair next week. AUDJPY lifted to a five-day high and was the best performing pair, moving 0.33% and holding over 75.25, having topped at 75.41 and rolled over from its overbought condition at the London open. EURJPY also rose to an eight-day high.

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In stock markets, the MSCI All-Country World Index hit a new record high today, which followed the record highs that the three main US indices and the pan-Europe Stoxx 600 Equity Index saw yesterday. Oil prices remained heavy, some 11% down on the high seen just a couple of days ago, with the US and Iran having stepped back from the cliff edge. News that iPhone sales in China rose 18% y/y in December gave tech stocks a boost, while also boding well for US-Sino relations, with China’s Vice Premier Liu, head of Beijing’s trade negotiation team, travelling to Washington next week to sign the phase-1 trade deal with the US.

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Elsewhere in the forex markets, the Dollar has traded mixed, leaving the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) net unchanged. EURUSD remained settled in a narrow range near 1.1100. The Dollar lost ground to the Australian currency, with AUDUSD lifting to a two-day high at 0.6882 in what is the pair’s first up day of the year so far. Cable remained below the 1.3100 level, while USDCAD settled just above 1.3050, below the two-week high seen yesterday at 1.3104.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 13th January 2020.

FX Update January 13 – Sterling Stressed 13th January 2020.



GBPUSD, H1

Sterling has taken a turn lower in early week trading, with markets reacting to both dovish BoE-speak and to a report from the UK’s Institute for Government finding that it will be impossible to deliver the computer systems for the special arrangements for Northern Ireland’s border by the end of the year. Prime Minister Johnson has pledged, and worked into the Withdrawal Agreement legislation, to leave the post-Brexit transition period by the end of the year, hence the negative reaction by markets. Ireland’s deputy Prime Minister Coveney also said that forming a new trade deal between the EU and UK is “probably going to take longer than a year.” Member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee Vlieghe, meanwhile, said in the FT over the weekend that he is ready to cut rates if data doesn’t improve, similar to the view expressed by governor Carney last week. Cable has dropped nearly 0.5% in printing a 17-day low at 1.29845, while EURGBP has risen by a similar magnitude in making a 17-day peak at 0.8560. However, the biggest mover has been GBPAUD down some 0.55% and trades blow 1.8800 once again.





Elsewhere, EURUSD has lifted above its Friday high in making 1.1132 in a move driven by moderate Euro outperformance. EURJPY has posted a two-week high at 122.05, while EURCHF and other Euro crosses have also seen gains. The Yen remained on a generally weak footing as Asia’s MSCI Asia-Pacific index hit a new 19-month high with investors anticipating Wednesday’s signing of the US-China phase-1 trade deal. USDJPY was buoyant, though remained below Friday’s 18-day high at 109.68, and could not close the weak over 109.50, strong resistance sits at 109.70. AUDJPY posted a fresh 10-day peak. AUDUSD posted a six-day peak. Liquidity was below par in Asia with Japanese markets closed for a public holiday. The US-China trade deal will be a major focus this week as the details haven’t been made public, a reported 86-page document is to be signed and questions remain over Chinese compliance and their ability to actually fulfill their obligations and from the US side, their willingness to reimpose tariffs in an election year.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.