[01/11/2018] Bitcoin Bear Market Could Last 18 More Months: BitMEX CEO

[Lmaooo]

Bitcoin prices and trading volume might keep plummeting, and the current bear market could last another 18 months. That’s the sobering assessment of Arthur Hayes, the CEO of the Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange (BitMEX), the world’s largest bitcoin derivatives trading platform.

“My view is the volatility environment that exists right now could persist for another 12 to 18 months, the flatness,” Hayes told Yahoo Finance. “I’m just basing it off my previous experience.”

Hayes started trading crypto full-time in 2013 after losing his job as an equities trader at Citibank. The Hong Kong-based executive said the trading patterns today resemble the “nuclear bear market” he witnessed in 2014.

“I started in bitcoin in 2013, when the price went from $250 to $1,300,” Hayes recounted. “And then 2014 to 2015 was sort of the nuclear bear market. Price crashed, volume crashed — very, very difficult to make money.”


Hayes Set $50,000 BTC Price Target in June

Cryptocurrency trading volumes recently plunged to a new year low following the summer slump.

Hayes said volume could drop more in the coming months. “We think trading volumes could fall further from where they are now,” he said.

This is a stunning about-face from the exuberant $50,000 year-end bitcoin price target Hayes set back in June 2018.

At the time, he said BTC prices were just one positive regulatory decision away from rocketing past $20,000 on its way to $50,000 by December 2018. That does not appear realistic given current market conditions.

    #Bitcoin sitting at its lowest levels since November, but #crypto bull @CryptoHayes is sticking by his call for Bitcoin heading to $50K. pic.twitter.com/pOL2ekBP0w

    — CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) June 29, 2018

While Arthur Hayes has a bearish near-term outlook on the crypto market, he’s bullish about the industry’s long-term prospects.

Other market participants agree that the industry is currently flailing, but the long-term outlook is very bullish.

“The market is blowing off some steam right now,” Will Warren, the co-founder of decentralized crypto exchange 0x, told Yahoo. “The market is probably going through some healthy consolidation, but I do believe the long-term trend will be greater adoption of bitcoin and similar technologies.”

CCN | https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-bear-market-could-last-18-more-months-bitmex-ceo/

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[gentlemand]

I guess it's possible that it's going to be flat until it starts warming up towards halving time. Then again a halving pump should not be depended on.

Looks like Arthur will have to introduce 100,000x leverage. Cannae wait.

[hatshepsut93]

With Bitcoin it's impossible to accurately predict the future, because it's still too young and uncertain, so even if some assumptions are correct (like halvening or market cycles), other factors might emerge and have far more influence on the price. But if nothing serious happens, we can expect a new bull run just because there are so many things will be happening at the same time - halvening, end of bear cycle, legalization across the world, etc.

[1Referee]

Arthur should refrain from commenting on these sort of things, because he's making himself look like an idiot. First he said that the price would reach $50,000 before the end of the year, and now we're at a point he thinks the bear market could last 18 more months. 

He doesn't give a damn about what direction we're heading into, he just want people to lose their mind on greed and fear, because volatility is the money maker for him.

We only need one spark to get the market to pump, and it can happen at any time. Just make sure you buy in and patiently wait. What else is there do to?

[buwaytress]

Well, Hallelujah for me if so. Only thing nagging at me now is that more and more of these guys are going down the 2020 route, which usually signifies that the market will yet again prove them wrong. Still sort of wishing these guys would persist with their 2019 bull is back agenda so we can be assured of a muti-year wait that'll prune the speculators away.

"Very, very difficult to make money" - why, was it actually easier in the bull run? Weren't these guys shorting every new high on the road to 20k?

[figmentofmyass]

nice, another hyper-bullish prediction bites the dust! first tom lee, then mike novogratz, now arthur hayes. this is the kind of sentiment i wanna see. when the bulls become quiet and reserved or better yet, bearish, it bodes well for bullish market resolution. most market predictions are incorrect; plan accordingly.

He doesn't give a damn about what direction we're heading into, he just want people to lose their mind on greed and fear, because volatility is the money maker for him.

he may not care about the direction, but i'm sure he doesn't want the price to stay flat, which is what he's suggesting. bitmex's volume has been steadily falling for the last few months because of the market flatness.

[veleten]

they change their mind every few months, especially when the things do not go so well for their exchanges
50k prediction was as much as realistic as his 1.5 year bear market one
if we are into 1.5 year bear market, we could end up with prices way below the profitable threshold for miners
which is roughly 6.000$ at the moment, but if it falls below 6k we may see another drop since some holders will liquidate and smaller miners will be out of the game
we all would love to see bitcoin cost if not 50k but at least 10k, but lets be realistic and let the market work its magic instead of trying to predict unpredictable

[1BTC EQUALS 1CAR]

This is like the mindset of Tom Lee and friends that are always high when they make their predictions. I really don't care what they say because they don't even count as 1% of the total volume that is invested on the crypto market. They are just there so the media can release a lot of crap articles.

[Lucius]

Arthur should refrain from commenting on these sort of things, because he's making himself look like an idiot. First he said that the price would reach $50,000 before the end of the year, and now we're at a point he thinks the bear market could last 18 more months. 

He doesn't give a damn about what direction we're heading into, he just want people to lose their mind on greed and fear, because volatility is the money maker for him.

We only need one spark to get the market to pump, and it can happen at any time. Just make sure you buy in and patiently wait. What else is there do to?

People like him can not refrain from such speculations, even though they make very bad prediction they do not give up  - so he is maybe idiot, but as we all know a very rich idiot. In times like this many so-called experts try to predict future of BTC, but it's just a game of them and the media - they get publicity and media make some money.

How many times Hayes will change his opinion in next 18 months?

[pixie85]

nice, another hyper-bullish prediction bites the dust! first tom lee, then mike novogratz, now arthur hayes. this is the kind of sentiment i wanna see. when the bulls become quiet and reserved or better yet, bearish, it bodes well for bullish market resolution. most market predictions are incorrect; plan accordingly.

He doesn't give a damn about what direction we're heading into, he just want people to lose their mind on greed and fear, because volatility is the money maker for him.

he may not care about the direction, but i'm sure he doesn't want the price to stay flat, which is what he's suggesting. bitmex's volume has been steadily falling for the last few months because of the market flatness.

Note that those bulls were wrong for the whole year. They were repeating their mantra and going against the trend. Now, when they got spanked enough, they're sticking their tails between their legs and trying to for once make a good prediction, but it's too late. Bear market is coming to an end and they'll once again get spanked for being late to acknowledge it. It's funny to watch how these experienced traders are making rookie mistakes that every trading guidebook teaches you about.

[BitHodler]

It's funny to watch how these experienced traders are making rookie mistakes that every trading guidebook teaches you about.

We're all rookies in a way. Even those who have been here since the very beginning and know what bust and boom cycles are only talk big afterwards. They have no clue about what's going to happen beforehand.

That's why I'm not bothering much with what's going to happen in the coming months. I'm prepared to buy the market to its bottom, which is why I always make sure I have enough fiat aside.

People constantly worrying about the price going down have most likely gone all in and can't do anything other than hoping for a quick recovery. Crypto is an empty industry thriving on boom cycles, have patience......

[timerland]

It was really not what he mentioned would be the future trend back in June, with the obvious contrast between the bullish predictions then and the quite bearish predictions right now. Another reason you shouldn't really follow any of these analysts or CEOs, because they honestly are not any more qualified than most experienced bitcoin users.

But based on the current trends I really wouldn't be surprised if the bull market doesn't come until a year or two later.

The 2013 bear market obviously has shown significant lengths of time used for recover before the actual bull market broke out. However, we can probably expect the prices to bottom out in the next year or so, that I think is a given.