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Author Topic: BTC broke all major support lines, and the worse is yet to come.  (Read 1427 times)
mikeywith
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November 19, 2018, 12:43:45 AM
Last edit: November 24, 2018, 10:04:02 PM by mikeywith
Merited by criptix (5), dbshck (2), mindrust (1), Danslip (1), friends1980 (1)
 #1






A few  days ago i was still bullish on bitcoin as it stayed strong above major support  trend as well as horizontal support support of 5800$-6100$. the bulls defended that area for from the beginning of the dip on Feb, the long positions on that area were always big enough to bring price up as soon as it mingles around those prices.

this time however, it's pretty different. price went pass them like they were nothing. the area from  5800 to 6100 is has now formed a very strong resistance levels that do not seem to be broken before making a considerable low.

I do believe there could be one more bull-trap before we head down. but most likely nothing major.

The next support would be 4900 which happens to be both trend line as well as a horizntal support formed on Aug 2017 " previews resistance". yet i would not count on that to be a kick start for a new bull run. price will surely bounch back from there only for correction.

breaking lower the 4900 will easily take us to 2900-3100 which is a strong support formed on Sep 2017 from a previous resistance formed on June 2017, what's more interesting that price meets the concept of "history repeating it self" which is about 85% drop from ATH that started in late 2013.

this is the most likely scenario that i expect now, however the hardest part would be the timing. if history is to repeat itself then we will remain a bear market till around Sep 2019 before the next bull run starts.

-------------------------

From a fundamental point of view. recently Crypto has not made anything noticeable that could make it attracting enough to be 2-3 Trillion market.

we see new shit coins every day, most which has no purpose, many scam projects. and recently the hash-war of BCH is one simple example of why the world still think crypto is a risky and easily manipulated market.

we will need couple more months to clear out the path for the true vision of crypto for preparation of mass adoption. as with this situation,prices are as best as they get.


no fud here, just trying to point out the facts. i want nothing more than BTC going to 1 million over night. but this is just not happening.

being realistic can save you from future coming events that may break your heart.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24/11/2018  9:55 pm (GMT)
UPDATE : BTC is down about 30% from the time I posted this, some moon boys probably did not like what i said, some said TA is B.S . but if even 1 person took my analysis seriously and benefited from this i am glad enough.

currently btc is trading at  3940$ on binance .

we will see some relief from here, but most likely only a bear flag that will only bring another dip.

my strategy is to buy into this market slowly as the bull run could happen any time, but major buys will be around 2900-3100$ .  i might increase my buying postion at 3500$ area if i see some good price action.


as i mentioned in one of the comments, the only way for BTC to really be in a bull market is with a daily close above 7500$ with some huge volume, aside from that any surge is nothing but a good chance to short.






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November 19, 2018, 02:00:31 PM
 #2

Aaaand support lines keep getting broken it seems. I thought a new week would see us recover from that sudden plunge but the trend hasn't changed. Hopefully you're wrong dude but current happenings point out to exactly what you said.

 
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November 19, 2018, 05:30:54 PM
 #3

Aaaand support lines keep getting broken it seems. I thought a new week would see us recover from that sudden plunge but the trend hasn't changed. Hopefully you're wrong dude but current happenings point out to exactly what you said.


we will most likely have some sort of correction to 5450-5700 before attempting another low. unless BTC makes a daily close above 7500 , it will always be safer to short it. many people keep their eyes closed and waiting for 20k again , i know not every is a trader. but it really does pay off when you sell high and buy low. my plan is to get more BTC shorting it, not to get more fiat. as i am pretty sure BTC will sky rocket. but it's just not now. not until 2020.

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November 19, 2018, 06:33:37 PM
 #4

This is serious and I think $4950 is the next support level.  The market capitalization of the cryptocurrencies has also fall to $168billion . It seems the market is taking the way it went up last year and it might been heading towards $3000. This time last year I didn't think I have a thought that bitcoin is going to fall to this level and I was even saying and analyzing that the lowest it will go is $10,000.
Aaaand support lines keep getting broken it seems. I thought a new week would see us recover from that sudden plunge but the trend hasn't changed. Hopefully you're wrong dude but current happenings point out to exactly what you said.
$20,000 is not possible this year again.  We are praying for bitcoin to go above $7000 before end of the year.  If bitcoin recovered next week then I believe that is going to get above $6,000.
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November 19, 2018, 07:47:42 PM
 #5

Watching the price go down with fiat in your pockets always feels good.

My current buy targets;

>$4000<$4500
>$3000<$3500 BIG

It's obviously not a guarantee that the price will fall down that much, and in case of the sub $4000 target it might take weeks or months to reach that price, but that's my plan. I went long on Bitmex just now because the price has been oversold and I expect some form of a recovery, probably back to $5500 to later fall back down.

Bitcoin - peer to peer electronic cash
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November 19, 2018, 08:27:38 PM
 #6






A few  days ago i was still bullish on bitcoin as it stayed strong above major support  trend as well as horizontal support support of 5800$-6100$. the bulls defended that area for from the beginning of the dip on Feb, the long positions on that area were always big enough to bring price up as soon as it mingles around those prices.

this time however, it's pretty different. price went pass them like they were nothing. the area from  5800 to 6100 is has now formed a very strong resistance levels that do not seem to be broken before making a considerable low.

I do believe there could be one more bull-trap before we head down. but most likely nothing major.

The next support would be 4900 which happens to be both trend line as well as a horizntal support formed on Aug 2017 " previews resistance". yet i would not count on that to be a kick start for a new bull run. price will surely bounch back from there only for correction.

breaking lower the 4900 will easily take us to 2900-3100 which is a strong support formed on Sep 2017 from a previous resistance formed on June 2017, what's more interesting that price meets the concept of "history repeating it self" which is about 85% drop from ATH that started in late 2013.

this is the most likely scenario that i expect now, however the hardest part would be the timing. if history is to repeat itself then we will remain a bear market till around Sep 2019 before the next bull run starts.

-------------------------

From a fundamental point of view. recently Crypto has not made anything noticeable that could make it attracting enough to be 2-3 Trillion market.

we see new shit coins every day, most which has no purpose, many scam projects. and recently the hash-war of BCH is one simple example of why the world still think crypto is a risky and easily manipulated market.

we will need couple more months to clear out the path for the true vision of crypto for preparation of mass adoption. as with this situation,prices are as best as they get.


no fud here, just trying to point out the facts. i want nothing more than BTC going to 1 million over night. but this is just not happening.

being realistic can save you from future coming events that may break your heart.


I'm counting on 4900. We have strong support there! The price will definitely stay there for a while. Next, I also expect positive news that will give a new impetus, and after we will be able to fall below the levels of 4200 - 4300$. I am definitely sure that we will gain a foothold below the weekly trend. $ 4261 is the level of 0.786 Fibonacci and in my opinion the rebound will be from this price!
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November 19, 2018, 09:42:55 PM
 #7

I'm counting on 4900. We have strong support there! The price will definitely stay there for a while. Next, I also expect positive news that will give a new impetus, and after we will be able to fall below the levels of 4200 - 4300$. I am definitely sure that we will gain a foothold below the weekly trend. $ 4261 is the level of 0.786 Fibonacci and in my opinion the rebound will be from this price!

There should be some horizontal support here at the $4,800-$4,900 area. But price is still grinding down without a sign of seller exhaustion. This is really quite the selloff...... lots of momentum here!

If we manage a bounce soon, I assume selling near $5,500 will be a good bet. There's a lot of resistance to work through. Ultimately, I'm eyeing the long term uptrend line from 2016. It's standing at $3,800 and rising.

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November 19, 2018, 10:13:15 PM
 #8

Breaking lower the 4900 <-- not 4900 but if price falls below 4000, it will be a very bad moment. There is no doubt it will cause massive panic in people and a lot of them will sell bitcoin, which, in fact will speed up fall process instead of recovery. On another hand we have miners, they need profitable mining, maybe big players will still mine while bad prices but there is no doubt it will rise soon, at least on point where mining will be profitable.

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November 20, 2018, 01:34:49 AM
 #9

On another hand we have miners, they need profitable mining, maybe big players will still mine while bad prices but there is no doubt it will rise soon, at least on point where mining will be profitable.
I don't think any of the current traders think even a second about what miners are going through. Price doesn't follow miner demand, miners follow price action and adjust themselves by adding or removing hashrate.

CNBC Brian Kelly at $5500 said he bought in, which usually is a bad sign, and it turned out to be. Right now CNBC expects the price to drop significantly lower, and these statements usually mean the opposite.

Let's give it a day or so to see if they are still the perfect counter benchmark. For what it's worth, the market seems like it has been sold out like mad, which usually translates into a mild recovery.
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November 20, 2018, 01:45:51 AM
 #10

Breaking lower the 4900 <-- not 4900 but if price falls below 4000, it will be a very bad moment. There is no doubt it will cause massive panic in people and a lot of them will sell bitcoin, which, in fact will speed up fall process instead of recovery. On another hand we have miners, they need profitable mining, maybe big players will still mine while bad prices but there is no doubt it will rise soon, at least on point where mining will be profitable.
It should be on the chart the lowest price is above $4900, based on the horizontal line in the picture above, but the price is already under $4900? is the current condition of bitcoin getting worse? I hope that positive news will quickly come and hold the price of bitcoin to down, because it's very bad for all of us..
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November 20, 2018, 01:56:14 AM
 #11

https://i.imgur.com/7MurjVd.jpg




A few  days ago i was still bullish on bitcoin as it stayed strong above major support  trend as well as horizontal support support of 5800$-6100$. the bulls defended that area for from the beginning of the dip on Feb, the long positions on that area were always big enough to bring price up as soon as it mingles around those prices.

this time however, it's pretty different. price went pass them like they were nothing. the area from  5800 to 6100 is has now formed a very strong resistance levels that do not seem to be broken before making a considerable low.

I do believe there could be one more bull-trap before we head down. but most likely nothing major.

The next support would be 4900 which happens to be both trend line as well as a horizntal support formed on Aug 2017 " previews resistance". yet i would not count on that to be a kick start for a new bull run. price will surely bounch back from there only for correction.

breaking lower the 4900 will easily take us to 2900-3100 which is a strong support formed on Sep 2017 from a previous resistance formed on June 2017, what's more interesting that price meets the concept of "history repeating it self" which is about 85% drop from ATH that started in late 2013.

this is the most likely scenario that i expect now, however the hardest part would be the timing. if history is to repeat itself then we will remain a bear market till around Sep 2019 before the next bull run starts.

-------------------------

From a fundamental point of view. recently Crypto has not made anything noticeable that could make it attracting enough to be 2-3 Trillion market.

we see new shit coins every day, most which has no purpose, many scam projects. and recently the hash-war of BCH is one simple example of why the world still think crypto is a risky and easily manipulated market.

we will need couple more months to clear out the path for the true vision of crypto for preparation of mass adoption. as with this situation,prices are as best as they get.


no fud here, just trying to point out the facts. i want nothing more than BTC going to 1 million over night. but this is just not happening.

being realistic can save you from future coming events that may break your heart.



Charts now are pure bullshit, we have here a big dump the will be followed for a bigger buy force that will put us in a huge bull run, never seen im history before.
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November 20, 2018, 02:14:13 AM
 #12






A few  days ago i was still bullish on bitcoin as it stayed strong above major support  trend as well as horizontal support support of 5800$-6100$. the bulls defended that area for from the beginning of the dip on Feb, the long positions on that area were always big enough to bring price up as soon as it mingles around those prices.

this time however, it's pretty different. price went pass them like they were nothing. the area from  5800 to 6100 is has now formed a very strong resistance levels that do not seem to be broken before making a considerable low.

I do believe there could be one more bull-trap before we head down. but most likely nothing major.

The next support would be 4900 which happens to be both trend line as well as a horizntal support formed on Aug 2017 " previews resistance". yet i would not count on that to be a kick start for a new bull run. price will surely bounch back from there only for correction.

breaking lower the 4900 will easily take us to 2900-3100 which is a strong support formed on Sep 2017 from a previous resistance formed on June 2017, what's more interesting that price meets the concept of "history repeating it self" which is about 85% drop from ATH that started in late 2013.

this is the most likely scenario that i expect now, however the hardest part would be the timing. if history is to repeat itself then we will remain a bear market till around Sep 2019 before the next bull run starts.

-------------------------

From a fundamental point of view. recently Crypto has not made anything noticeable that could make it attracting enough to be 2-3 Trillion market.

we see new shit coins every day, most which has no purpose, many scam projects. and recently the hash-war of BCH is one simple example of why the world still think crypto is a risky and easily manipulated market.

we will need couple more months to clear out the path for the true vision of crypto for preparation of mass adoption. as with this situation,prices are as best as they get.


no fud here, just trying to point out the facts. i want nothing more than BTC going to 1 million over night. but this is just not happening.

being realistic can save you from future coming events that may break your heart.



Charts now are pure bullshit, we have here a big dump the will be followed for a bigger buy force that will put us in a huge bull run, never seen im history before.

Ya right  Grin

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November 20, 2018, 03:33:55 AM
 #13

Breaking lower the 4900 <-- not 4900 but if price falls below 4000, it will be a very bad moment. There is no doubt it will cause massive panic in people and a lot of them will sell bitcoin, which, in fact will speed up fall process instead of recovery. On another hand we have miners, they need profitable mining, maybe big players will still mine while bad prices but there is no doubt it will rise soon, at least on point where mining will be profitable.
Seeing the current conditions is very likely to drop to below 4000, and certainly will cause panic, at the moment I just keep on monitoring the market, it might start entering the market when prices are below 4500. Many expect prices to improve in 2019 it might happen but not in the early months.

 
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November 20, 2018, 04:38:58 AM
 #14

A few  days ago i was still bullish on bitcoin as it stayed strong above major support  trend
Doesn't the fact that bitcoin went below these "support lines" argue against the validity of using TA to trade?  I'm a long-time skeptic of technical analysis, and this just shows me that the market does what it wants with no regard to these fancy voodoo TA techniques and terms.

we see new shit coins every day, most which has no purpose, many scam projects. and recently the hash-war of BCH is one simple example of why the world still think crypto is a risky and easily manipulated market.
You got that right, although I'd argue that "the world" is hardly even aware that there are any cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin.  It's a very small population of people who are even aware of these shitcoins, ICO scams, and now this hash war thing.  Shitcoins are destined to crash to zero--or at least most of them are, and I don't need TA to verify that for me.  One of these days people are going to wake up and realize that no merchant is ever going to accept them and there's no practical use for them, not even as a store of value because of the extreme volatility.

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November 20, 2018, 09:15:08 PM
 #15

A few  days ago i was still bullish on bitcoin as it stayed strong above major support  trend
Doesn't the fact that bitcoin went below these "support lines" argue against the validity of using TA to trade?  I'm a long-time skeptic of technical analysis, and this just shows me that the market does what it wants with no regard to these fancy voodoo TA techniques and terms.

we see new shit coins every day, most which has no purpose, many scam projects. and recently the hash-war of BCH is one simple example of why the world still think crypto is a risky and easily manipulated market.
You got that right, although I'd argue that "the world" is hardly even aware that there are any cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin.  It's a very small population of people who are even aware of these shitcoins, ICO scams, and now this hash war thing.  Shitcoins are destined to crash to zero--or at least most of them are, and I don't need TA to verify that for me.  One of these days people are going to wake up and realize that no merchant is ever going to accept them and there's no practical use for them, not even as a store of value because of the extreme volatility.

well indeed the market does what it wants to do, it does not really react to charts, but charts react to price.  we as TA people in most cases see the same chart and think that same thoughts, when price broke the trend line bottom which was about 5900$ i personally sold out, and obviously i was not alone in this as my whole worth of btc is not even 0.00000000000000001% of the market cap. but it does accumulate with other traders. causes the panic and price dips.

fundamentals are of course way stronger than Technical, if tomorrow satoshi comes out and prove himself and say BTC is scam, no support and no TA will hold btc from going to 0. on the other hand if we get ETF approved, prices will care less about any Resistance on the chart and will shot to surpass ATH.

but in normal market condition TA does work "not all the time tho Cheesy " . and if you use it right, you simply end up with more BTC in your wallet.

cheers.

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November 20, 2018, 09:23:22 PM
 #16

If nothing else it's a fine demonstration that TA is a crock of shit.

There have been plenty of people calling for sub 3 grand lows which is fair enough. I did not see one single example of a prediction for this particular brutality.

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November 20, 2018, 09:27:55 PM
 #17

If nothing else it's a fine demonstration that TA is a crock of shit.

+1000

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November 21, 2018, 07:40:48 AM
 #18

Yeah we need to be realistic, the broken support line seems going to make more panic situation for every traders, and I believe this is not the end of falling, but everything is just speculation, with this unstable market there are possibilities that the market is going to turn over sooner, so its important ti not fall into the fud news and start the panic sell
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November 21, 2018, 08:27:48 AM
 #19

A huge amount of different people who are supposedly great at technical analysis have repeatedly got their price predictions wrong.  It certainly feels like any successful predictions they're making are by chance.

I don't think technical indicators are really very useful for predicting the Bitcoin price.  They're very overused.

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November 21, 2018, 08:31:27 AM
 #20

Aaaand support lines keep getting broken it seems. I thought a new week would see us recover from that sudden plunge but the trend hasn't changed. Hopefully you're wrong dude but current happenings point out to exactly what you said.

The Support lines were broken all of sudden. This is not natural dump at all. I think it was manipulation by the big whales who want us to be panic and sell in panic. Once people will sell in panic, those whales will buy back all in cheap.
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