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Author Topic: bear and bull market theory  (Read 209 times)
somac.
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November 24, 2018, 10:08:33 PM
 #1

So I have a theory about the last bear market turning into a bull and I wonder who here thinks it might be the case.

1. we have a crash from bubble highs and bear market begins for whatever reason.
2. all the newbies who recently bought on the way up during the bubble with dreams of instant lambos start panic selling.
3. meanwhile the true believers hold onto most of there coins, and as the prices start going low enough begin buying.
4. now, the price is still going down over the months and many of the panic sellers gradually sell their holdings.
5. eventually, only the true believers are left, and they are still buying on a regular basis and now that the price is so low, they are getting a lot of bitcoins for their fiat.
6. I don't think any significant amount of newbies are starting to buy now, everyone thinks bitcoin is dead and have forgot about it. demand is sole from the believers.
7. being that the believers are getting a lot of btc from their fiat again, it is enough to sop up supply, price stagnates, then turns. Believers get excited about a change in the market and start buying a little more.
8. at this point the halvening comes, supply has fallen, but demand remains the same. We eventually get to near ATH again and the media starts posting articles about btc.
9. the newbies start coming again, and begin their buying, more demand breaks old ATH and we are off to the moon with another bubble.

So what do you all reckon? If if this theory is somewhat accurate will the cycle happen again?
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November 25, 2018, 04:38:24 AM
 #2

i don't think it is panic sell anymore. the volume doesn't make sense to me compared to previous panic sells. basically all i see is a large amount being unloaded on  orderbooks which pushes the price down, there is of course some accompanying panic sell but not the main reason for the drop.

i believe the problem is that everyone left the market due to this manipulation (not because they think it is dead!) and are waiting to see when it is going to end before they come back. and that means the power of manipulators is that much bigger so they can push it down as much as they like.

i wouldn't call this a bear market either. since this is a dump.
as for newbies, they are never reason for recovery. they are always the reason for bubbles and crashes since they are the irrational ones. otherwise the movements are smoother.

at this point it may take that long to recover, but not because it is halving that causes the recovery or whatever but because coincidentally when there is a drastic drop like this, it takes that much longer to recover and for the market to regain its healthy status back.

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November 25, 2018, 07:01:43 AM
 #3

To summarize everything:
1.Newbies are selling...
2.A big part of the HODLers are selling...
3.Some big crypto whales are selling...

Nobody is buying.... Grin

Two things are sertain.
1.The Bitcoin Cash drama is no longer responsible to the current crypto bloodbath.
2.Nobody cares about the SEC bitcoin ETF approval anymore. Grin




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November 25, 2018, 02:54:21 PM
 #4

I think it is safe to say we can kiss the sec approval goodbye. Shame as we were getting close this time around. Bitcoin cash was the start of this dump and hopefully their founders lost a hell of a lot. Bakkt is our next hope for recovery in Jan 2019

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November 25, 2018, 03:22:17 PM
 #5

To summarize everything:
1.Newbies are selling...

Probably, they always do...

Quote
2.A big part of the HODLers are selling...
Based on?

Quote
3.Some big crypto whales are selling...
We know exactly who, it's no secret.

Quote
Nobody is buying.... Grin
Not true, for every trade there is a seller and a buyer.
There are fewer people buying up than there are selling down would be more accurate.

Quote
Two things are sertain.
1.The Bitcoin Cash drama is no longer responsible to the current crypto bloodbath.
Bollocks, RV and CSW are still dumping considerable volumes affecting the market and buying hashing power for their network as well as purchasing large volumes of their own coins. There is a reason BCH and BCHSV are the only coins going up massively relative to BTC, hint; it's not their coins being superduperawesome.

Quote
2.Nobody cares about the SEC bitcoin ETF approval anymore. Grin

Only noobs ever cared about that.
Institutionalization of crypto will be its death.
khufuking
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November 25, 2018, 03:31:51 PM
 #6

1- Big whales are selling which lead to

2- Normal traders with stop loss getting out of the market which leads to a further drop

3- Now the true holders starting to panic, but I do not see any reason that a true holder will sell off at least with such prices.

4- Whales push the market further down ( That what they want)

There are big players that want to push in more money in the Crypto and those players will not buy with this prices and that is why we see this drop, and we will only start to see the massive bull run once they decide that this is the price they want to buy at.

(Side note) I think Ethereum 2.0 and BTC smart contracts.
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November 25, 2018, 04:21:48 PM
 #7

It can be this theory or it can be another, Let's say it can be in a cycle like this that keeps on going and going and never ends But I think this cycle may at lease come to an end someday It can be the bull was eaten by the bear or was killed by the bear just like what is happening right now, But I don't really want to make statements like this, And this is cryptocurrency and it is unpredictable we can have the same kind of rhythm over and over again but there will be a dent to this that might change how bitcoin work, And the one thing that I can be sure with bitcoin it will never become zero, So a bull run might still occur.


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November 25, 2018, 04:27:41 PM
 #8

Well the point is panic selling only adds more fuel to the flames. Prices won't even go down this big if they are not affected by whales selling at massive amounts. The problem here is it can't be avoided, we cannot have some kind of group where we are unified that selling won't be allowed, plus there is no guarantee that all of them won't start selling independently and they have the right to sell their own BTC. This bear market is testing a lot of hodlers especially the newbie ones, but to tell you the truth I doubt that the price drops are due to panic selling, weak hands maybe are already out of the market a long time ago.

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November 25, 2018, 04:28:19 PM
 #9

So I have a theory about the last bear market turning into a bull and I wonder who here thinks it might be the case.

1. we have a crash from bubble highs and bear market begins for whatever reason.
2. all the newbies who recently bought on the way up during the bubble with dreams of instant lambos start panic selling.
3. meanwhile the true believers hold onto most of there coins, and as the prices start going low enough begin buying.
4. now, the price is still going down over the months and many of the panic sellers gradually sell their holdings.
5. eventually, only the true believers are left, and they are still buying on a regular basis and now that the price is so low, they are getting a lot of bitcoins for their fiat.
6. I don't think any significant amount of newbies are starting to buy now, everyone thinks bitcoin is dead and have forgot about it. demand is sole from the believers.
7. being that the believers are getting a lot of btc from their fiat again, it is enough to sop up supply, price stagnates, then turns. Believers get excited about a change in the market and start buying a little more.
8. at this point the halvening comes, supply has fallen, but demand remains the same. We eventually get to near ATH again and the media starts posting articles about btc.
9. the newbies start coming again, and begin their buying, more demand breaks old ATH and we are off to the moon with another bubble.

So what do you all reckon? If if this theory is somewhat accurate will the cycle happen again?


Sounds near spot on, and I suspect it will happen again but I do think that over time it will be less frequent, less severe and less obvious. If the bear markets continue to be so accentuated and so harsh on these noobs then they'll never return and the market will struggle for any significant growth. As much as they may frustrate us, we need their money.

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November 25, 2018, 08:21:17 PM
 #10

Every market always goes through the same pattern, boom and bust, it's not only crypto. It's true for everything in life. The rules of physics apply not only to physical things. What goes up, must come down.

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