cotrader_com (OP)
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Disrupting the global investment funds industry
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November 26, 2018, 07:22:52 AM |
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Good points. If there was a constant upwards motion, and not big spike, then 3 years down, then adoption demand would be fairly high and constant over the entire 4 years. Bottom line, do you think it would be an improvement, if it could be done smoothly in 2022? Well, we can say "we just don't know what would happen", but the most fundamental economic principles of supply and demand are at play here.
first of all supply and demand is only one of many things that can affect the price and it is a lot complicated than that simplified graph you posted. secondly you are saying supply "AND" demand. but in your first post you are only talking about the supply and the rate at which it is being created and forget about the demand. demand doesn't has a fixed rate! in fact a big part of volatility is because of the changeable demand rate. for example at some point there is a surge of interest for bitcoin and that shoots the price up. and right now for example there is a surge of FUD which is decreasing the demand and also has slowed down adoption to a halt. |
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btyco
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November 26, 2018, 07:39:21 AM |
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The halving helps investors know the best times to invest in bitcoin which is before the halving pump. Next couple of years is a good time to accumulate before the next pump
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mk4
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Paldo.io 🤖
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November 26, 2018, 10:32:42 AM |
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Well, you claim that, but that's not what basic economic and monetary theory would predict (as we've seen in fact happen) about suddenly halving the supply, inflation rate, even in the book "The Bitcoin Standard" itself. *snip*
Though I do agree the suddenly halving the supply increases the price, we shouldn't be looking at the price here. We should be looking at the supply itself. Also again, I really honestly don't think you can make the price stable just by decreasing the supply alone. It's still mostly due to supply and demand, like what Pursuer said on his reply. Anyway, while I disagree with your proposal, thanks for creating a topic that's actually debatable and not bullcrap. |
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cotrader_com (OP)
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Disrupting the global investment funds industry
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November 27, 2018, 08:28:54 PM |
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It's not decreasing the supply that will help make for a stable rise, but removing the shocking change of inflation rate to 1/2 every 4 years, needlessly, afaik, to doing so gradually, per block. Does that make sense? Well, you claim that, but that's not what basic economic and monetary theory would predict (as we've seen in fact happen) about suddenly halving the supply, inflation rate, even in the book "The Bitcoin Standard" itself. *snip*
Though I do agree the suddenly halving the supply increases the price, we shouldn't be looking at the price here. We should be looking at the supply itself. Also again, I really honestly don't think you can make the price stable just by decreasing the supply alone. It's still mostly due to supply and demand, like what Pursuer said on his reply. Anyway, while I disagree with your proposal, thanks for creating a topic that's actually debatable and not bullcrap. |
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leetcoiner
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November 27, 2018, 08:35:23 PM |
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Well, you claim that, but that's not what basic economic and monetary theory would predict (as we've seen in fact happen) about suddenly halving the supply, inflation rate, even in the book "The Bitcoin Standard" itself. *snip*
Though I do agree the suddenly halving the supply increases the price, we shouldn't be looking at the price here. We should be looking at the supply itself. Also again, I really honestly don't think you can make the price stable just by decreasing the supply alone. It's still mostly due to supply and demand, like what Pursuer said on his reply. Anyway, while I disagree with your proposal, thanks for creating a topic that's actually debatable and not bullcrap. I think about the same as you, but there are some differences. It seems to me that a person who already has such large-scale thoughts in his head at the time of the idea can change the system as a whole. This shows us the history and so it was from time immemorial. It seems to me that this man is very brave and we just need to support him in his endeavors. |
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r1s2g3
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I am alive but in hibernation.
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November 27, 2018, 08:55:23 PM |
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Bitcoin is not unstable due to halving actually halving process to limit the overall supply only. Halving should cause increase in price only not the downward turn. It is unstable because community is governed by the "HODL" principle. Very basic requirement of currency is that it should circulate and widely accepted, easy to transact and not counterfeit.
Unfortunately in current scenario , community instead of creating business (that will involve transaction of currency) believes in locking it.
PS: Stop blaming Satoshi ,he is not asking to dump the coin or spike the price.
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I am alive
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Lilmon
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November 27, 2018, 09:00:27 PM |
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Remember that this is a prototype project, bitcoin despite being a fairly complete coin has flaws from its origin, we are just starting with the development of this technology and I do not think Satoshi could predict how big it would become, so certain decisions do not make sense now that bitcoin has become so massive.
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cotrader_com (OP)
Copper Member
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Activity: 20
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Disrupting the global investment funds industry
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November 28, 2018, 12:46:05 AM |
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I've updated the title as a BIP. The point wasn't to blame Satoshi, who got so much right. The reason the 4 year cycle does create price spikes and big falls: when the inflation halves suddenly, prices have rather dramatic upwards pressure because of the supply curve shifting left. Then, what follows is FOMO, culminating in a peak and fall. AKA, boom/bust cycle. If the inflation were per-block and gradual, we'd at least remove this sudden shock problem. Adoption would be more steady and serious about using bitcoin as a stable increasingly valuable money. Such adoption could happen over the entire 4 year term, not just during the short upward cycle, like now, with everyone waiting for the next rush. It's not healthy for any realistic currency. Bitcoin is not unstable due to halving actually halving process to limit the overall supply only. Halving should cause increase in price only not the downward turn. It is unstable because community is governed by the "HODL" principle. Very basic requirement of currency is that it should circulate and widely accepted, easy to transact and not counterfeit.
Unfortunately in current scenario , community instead of creating business (that will involve transaction of currency) believes in locking it.
PS: Stop blaming Satoshi ,he is not asking to dump the coin or spike the price.
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