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Author Topic: Observation: Hash rate growing again  (Read 2325 times)
Litt
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November 07, 2011, 05:37:33 PM
 #21

Actually the change I am seeing is stability.

The daily/weekly/monthly changes in both difficulty and BTC:USD prices are becoming smaller.  I mean the projection for next difficulty change is <1%.  A far cry from 50% ups and 35% downs.  We will see if this trend holds but I actually stopped looking at Bitcoin prices everyday.  For last week or so I have known I could get ~3 BTC +/- 20% when I sold coins to cover my electrical costs.  Granted 20% is huge for any other price but it sure beats the 100%+ daily volatility.

  its -11% as of right now. Still a bit early to tell with the standard 'frequency' in movement on any given day. Doesn't helpt that BtcGuild was down about 1,000GH, from about 6 hours ago until last check 30 minutes ago though.

  And yea, it would be nice to find some stabalization range on the price. Hopefully that trend holds if nothing else.

See what happens when I open my mouth.   Grin 

Still even 11% would be a rather minor change either up or down compared to the average of the last dozen or so difficulty changes.

  *inserts sock*  Grin

  Much agreed. If I had to speculate it; If price remains stabalized for another 10 days it will be -3% to -10%.  If price continues downward and hits below $2.6~ in the next 10 days then -7% to -18%.  If price rebounds to $3.25+ then -2% to +10%.   Why 10 days?  because any price event too close to next diff change would not have time to reflect fully in the adjustment imho.

    Cheers



Here is a link showing you that difficulty drop in percentage that is easy to see for people. http://btcserv.net/bitcoin/history/

I guess seeing a difficulty drop percentage less than -18% may serve as a sign we are getting closer to finding the bottom, but then it would be easier to just look at the price to determine that outright instead of trying to forecast it with projected difficulty change.   



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