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Author Topic: Interesting reads on future of Bitcoin price  (Read 357 times)
sorrysteve1
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December 18, 2018, 07:31:33 PM
 #21


While it is true that the 2017 bubble was the largest in Bitcoin’s history,
was it really the biggest bubble?
note that being a big bubble is not about being in the highest price but having actual big BUBBLE. I personally consider $10k to $20k a bubble which means it really wasn't that big. in fact it can be considered one of the smallest bubbles. even if you consider current price as the bottom and take the 80% drop as the bubble burst (which it really isn't true) that still doesn't make it the "biggest" because we have had bigger bubbles in the past.

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the market capitalisation of both Bitcoin and the cryptoasset ecosystem still exceeds its January 2017 levels –-
I am sure this will happen for bitcoin but it will not happen for at least 80% of the altcoins and the rest of 20% will have an extremely hard time to reach their previous ATH because most of them have already lost their place in the market and are being replaced by newer altcoins.

In terms of marketcap decrease it's by far the largest but I agree that shouldn't be the only measure of what constitute's the biggest bubble. I think one of the most important things is not something that even can be quantified, but the effect the bubble had on the market. With hindsight you may be able to measure this based on how long there is from bubble burst to a new ATH but I'm not even sure that is fully accurate. To my mind 2014 was a bigger bubble due to the shear influence it had on the market.

You're doing the current market an injustice saying it only exceeds January 2017 levels. The marketcap at the turn of 2017 was under 20bn, bitcoin being the only coin with a marketcap over 1bn. The overall market has still grown massively since then.

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December 18, 2018, 07:48:16 PM
 #22

In terms of marketcap decrease it's by far the largest but I agree that shouldn't be the only measure of what constitute's the biggest bubble.

What matters is price. It seems like price growth in percentage terms ought to be the defining factor for bubble magnitude. That actually gives us meaningful information to distinguish between bubble cycles.

Total market cap completely distorts things because it's a function of total supply (for all coins). The majority of supply is never traded on the market and therefore shouldn't be factored into "growth." We're talking about lost coins, inactive coins, and especially large pre-mines and token issuer holdings. Using these as huge multipliers for price really exaggerates the total value of the market to the point where the numbers are useless.

Which bubble was largest depends where you measure the bottom from. 2011 appears significantly larger than 2013, which appears significantly larger than 2017. Each bubble seems to be getting smaller in terms of relative growth.

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December 19, 2018, 04:04:09 PM
 #23

In terms of marketcap decrease it's by far the largest but I agree that shouldn't be the only measure of what constitute's the biggest bubble.

What matters is price. It seems like price growth in percentage terms ought to be the defining factor for bubble magnitude. That actually gives us meaningful information to distinguish between bubble cycles.

Total market cap completely distorts things because it's a function of total supply (for all coins). The majority of supply is never traded on the market and therefore shouldn't be factored into "growth." We're talking about lost coins, inactive coins, and especially large pre-mines and token issuer holdings. Using these as huge multipliers for price really exaggerates the total value of the market to the point where the numbers are useless.

Which bubble was largest depends where you measure the bottom from. 2011 appears significantly larger than 2013, which appears significantly larger than 2017. Each bubble seems to be getting smaller in terms of relative growth.

Price distorts things in a different way to marketcap however because it discounts the fact that a movement of price at a higher level is more significant in terms of the conditions that go in to making it possible. From an investment point of view it's easy to look at price alone but to say that the price moving from $1-$10 is the same as $1000-$10,000 is not true. I don't feel there is any clear answer to how to define the size of a bubble because every measure will have its advantages and disadvantages.

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December 19, 2018, 10:24:30 PM
 #24

I think this is overall, a very fair judgement on the recent developments in the bitcoin markets.

There was obviously a huge bubble in the year 2017, which is why this bear market has emerged as prices corrected over the last year. But as the article suggested, there is absolutely no cause for concern simply because a bear market is present. All that it means is that short term sentiment will be negative, and that rallies will be rare.

But in terms of long term adoption, and BTC's use in various fields, I honestly do not think that bitcoin will be affected that much at all. Institutions are going to still come in regardless of whether the market is bullish or bearish (perhaps bearish markets present them with even better buying opportunities), and adoption is still going to continue increasing.


I wonder to what degree people are aware that bitcoin is such an alternative? I guess they are not really aware. It is a huge space that one day bitcoin could potentially disrupt.

I don't think it's going to make many inroads into that until the need to move in and out of fiat is reduced.

Crypto/fiat interactions are pretty much the only stick governments have to wield and they're going to get ever more uptight about it, way more so than conventional banking. If a bank or broker asked for the shit Bitstamp do they'd be publicly shamed.

No one will want to put their child slavery profits into BTC if they find it's effectively trapped in there with no way of converting it.

Interesting take. I do feel like that in the future, as regulations tighten with crypto to fiat (or vice versa) transactions, people are going to shift to dealing exclusively in crypto. Services/goods will be priced and denominated in crypto, as opposed to pricing in fiat and being paid with crypto.

 
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December 20, 2018, 05:23:36 PM
 #25

I have a theory for bitcoins future that probably every single person on earth would agree on. Its a vague expectation and in reality is not something that could hugely affect anyone ever. I think bitcoin will definitely go up eventually, if you ask around there is not a single person in the world that believes bitcoin will stay at this price, no one says "will bitcoin go up" they say "when will bitcoin go up", maybe it will be 2020, maybe it will be this January, maybe its right now, who knows but it will certainly go up.

When it goes up there will be a natural barrier for it, lets say it will be 100k dollars (made up number) it will go there quicker and reach to that level eventually however after that it will stuck to the inflation, the price will still swing one way or another but won't be changing too much, it will only go up slowly because inflation affects it and dollar worths less in value over years so bitcoin will worth more but not as quickly as we have seen.

So, basically price will eventually go up and up again, reach a point where it will be stuck, slowly increase and decreas minimally forever.
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