What will BTC 'Mean Reversion' be in 2019? My prediction is $1400 USD

[sgenuine]

While it is quite difficult to say what will happen to the price of Bitcoin next year. Now, with almost the same probability, we can say that it will fall to $ 1,400 in its price, or rise to $ 10,000 - 15,000. All these calculations do not work in cryptocurrency. Most likely, such calculations are more like a coincidence. We hope that Bitcoin will grow in value, and then we will see how it will be in reality.

There are SO many Bitcoin supporters that it is difficult to guess the critical fall of BTC and its price of $1400 or even less. In my opinion, BTC will be growing, but steadily and slowly.

[Febo]

I see no possible 'moon shot' on the horizon, we're looking at a down market, people are cash-poor, deep in debt and shit is going down all over the world, thus there is no new source of funds to flow to BTC.

The whales are NOT done unloading, the whales are NOT idiots, HODL is for morons, billionaires ( whales ) didn't get rich by being morons.

People are poor, but billionaires are only richer and richer. They will buy Bitcoin. No need to worry. Bitcoin will for sure not stabilize at $1400. It will never stabilize, because USD will be worth less less and less.   When we talk about gold is more possible that Bitcoin stabilize at range of 100-1000 ounces and not 1 ounce.

[okala]

This your analysis is scaring to me and I think many of us here will not pray that bitcoin should fall to $1500. I was even thinking that anything from next year bitcoin should be bullish and those that buy now should be able to hold at profits in some days to come.  I remember those that were waiting for bitcoin to fall to $1000 last year but were out of the game at last.

[cellard]

My prediction calculation is $1400 USD, about the same as an ounce of GOLD. Which would be fine with me if BTC just settled in parity with GOLD.

What you say here? Have an opinion?

I see no possible 'moon shot' on the horizon, we're looking at a down market, people are cash-poor, deep in debt and shit is going down all over the world, thus there is no new source of funds to flow to BTC.

The whales are NOT done unloading, the whales are NOT idiots, HODL is for morons, billionaires ( whales ) didn't get rich by being morons.

what is the $1400 calculation based on? or the $1000 level you cited further down in your post? just a general belief that all gains from the 2017 bull run must be wiped out?

that might be a reasonable assumption, if not for bitcoin's historic trend. i try to trade with the trend, rather than against it. now that we've corrected more than 82% from the ATH, we're reaching levels where it's pretty dangerous to keep shorting.

It's just the previous MtGox peak resistance.. other people may have more complex models but that's about it, I think some are just looking to retest that peak again as the ideal entry point, however as you said we are already oversold so any further dips will be very fast and short-lived, so the opportunity to buy on these will be for the very lucky few that catch it with perfect timing, not worth it. $2900 would hit the 87% crash since the Dec 2017 peak, which means it would be the same as MtGox fall from $1300 ish to $150, but some other crashes were around 80% (see pic I posted earlier). Anything after 80% crash is high risk that it starts going up and you keep holding fiat waiting for a perfect entry point that never arrives. So if I was still on fiat, I would be buying already, and buying monthly in case it case it goes lower.

[basicnecromancycr]

I this is an exact case then I'll sell my flat to buy Bitcoin. 

Just kidding. But my prediction is a little bit above $2000 since if it happens it completes a %90 correction.