To newbies: why BTC is different and you must expect the price to rise again

[mOgliE]

So with the bubble burst there are of course tons of people crying about the death of btc and why it's going to 0 and your either out NOW or you've lost it all.

It was a bubble. No doubt about it. And quite frankly lots of people here warned new investors about it. You don't go +500% in a couple of months without a good reason.

But it doesn't matter, on the long run BTC will always be better and more solid than fiat. You're a newbie who entered at 10k$ and are shaking about the price going down and down again? Here, let an old bitcoiner explain you why you don't have to worry:

1/ Contrary to what tons of people say, BTC has an actual value and an actual use. Transfering money to anyone anywhere anonymously. Of course there are all the illegal trades like drugs or firearms but don't forget all the perfectly legal people who want to pay for something or send money far away, well if you go with wire transfer expect a 5 to 15% fee. Or use BTC.

2/ More than 80% of btc has already been mined!!! It means contrary to $, there can't be deflation by too much money printing. If tomorrow all the futur BTC to be mined was created, price would mechanically go down by 20% and that's all. To give you an example, 7 billions dollars are printed every year... You think it's safer to own $ that can be printed without any control or logic at any time by any government in need of cash? Think again.

3/ A useless bubble only appear once. When someone gives you the example of Tulipes or Massachussets company as bubble that went +20520125% then down to 0, tell them such assets go to zero then disappear. Btc already had a bubble, it exploded, then went back up. Because it's useful.

4/ Every 4 years the rythm of BTC printing is halved. The "halving" makes the reward of miners divided by 2 so that means less and less btc comes in the market. It means less adoption is needed to make the price up.

In short, remember that BTC is useful and that the worst has already happened! So keep your btc guys

[1713493007]

1713493007

[Tytanowy Janusz]

BTC is useful. No doubt. It also develops all the time. Currently its not the same coin as it was in 2017. Its real world value in my opinion is couple times bigger than it was during a bubble. We have lightining network devoloping very fast(https://p2sh.info/dashboard/db/lightning-network?orgId=1&from=now-6M&to=now) huge interest from instutional investors willing to use it or to invest in it. But where is this real world value? Value based on actual usage of BTC without short term speculants willing to get lambo in 1 month? We dont know. It might be even close to 100-1000$ or 1-100$. For sure btc wont burst as tulip bubble but we cant say that it wont drop 80% more because it has real world usage.

[Iwillgotothemoon]

Ok, what you said is very reasonable, I totally agree, I will summarize it in one sentence： BTC will go to the moon.
Although this sentence very cliche, “Go to the moon” has always been regarded as a representative of spam, but now I miss this sentence a bit.
I will go to the moon with BTC, GO GO GO! 

[buwaytress]

Thanks for the vote of confidence, m0glie, though I doubt that it will have changed the minds of people reading. Permabulls are by definition beholden to the concept of long term vision, while those who never truly believed in the value of Bitcoin other than for speculatory purposes, well, they will rush headlong into any situation - bull or bear.

The bubble comparison I think should be put to bed. Tulip bubbles burst once and never resurface. But the Bitcoin bubble cycle is well-established and to me no different than the other bubbles we already know exist: tech stocks and real estate are some, I've lived through at least two bubbles of both in my country.

Bitcoin is different, and has only been largely described by price because that is its most visible and easily understood aspect.

[b3j0]

actually I doubt said this, but this year will be a lesson for many people (including me). what we hope for in the future is not always as expected, even many experts are wrong with this. but I quite agree with what you say.

[BrewMaster]

Thanks for the vote of confidence, m0glie, though I doubt that it will have changed the minds of people reading.

it is not about changing people's minds, it is good to help some newcomers think about things that actually matter (real usefulness of bitcoin for example).
not to mention that with all the FUD topics that has been getting posted in the past week it is good to see someone attempting to open newbies eyes.

[ICO-Master]

Well said OP.  Bubbles will come and go but BTC is here to stay for the near future...

[butka]

I don't think that bitcoin has ever been a bubble. But I do think there is going to be a bubble burst with regard to the countless alcoins. Something has to wipe them out, at least 90-95 percent of them.

I agree that the price has to rise again and you have identified the main reason why. The moment of bitcoin halving is not so far in the future any more. It's just a matter a surviving this bear market, which is a normal phase for every market and bitcoin is no exception here, and we'll be fine.

[1Referee]

I don't think that bitcoin has ever been a bubble.

Bitcoin itself isn't a bubble, its market has been turned into a bubble more than once due to people's greedy nature. People only pay attention to the price, and think Bitcoin is doing good or bad based on the movements of the price. They think that Bitcoin at $20,000 was doing better than it is doing now at $4000, but it's actually vice versa in this case, mainly because of Segwit and how services became more aware of how to properly utilize block space.

Just look at the fees, they remained low throughout this whole month despite the dumps and fear going through the market. Bitcoin of last year during the bull run couldn't even say hello without stuttering. Me being generous with fees is $0.10 this year. Last year me being generous was $5-$20 lol. This is progress. Better value for money. Invest. Don't dump.

[kelz1]

One thing you forgot to mention is that 1 million coins are held in what is most likely a never to use wallet. Also millions are lost when people thought it would never amount to anything. This means a quarter of all bitcoins cannot be sold.

[Shinpako09]

Newbie also should know, expect a fall after a rise. That's one thing newbie aren't putting in their mind and seems forgotten. It's not always on top, so don't be frustrated whenever your expectation didn't met. Don't worry if the price fall, it will surely go up in the right time. It's all about patience.

[BitHodler]

One thing you forgot to mention is that 1 million coins are held in what is most likely a never to use wallet. Also millions are lost when people thought it would never amount to anything. This means a quarter of all bitcoins cannot be sold.

I don't see how that's important in the moment, because Bitcoin's market is very thinly traded, which means that even a relatively low number of coins being bought or sold can significantly impact the price.

As we all know, it goes in both directions. Last year the thinly traded market worked in our advantage, and now it goes the other way. Also, I never really had the impression that rookies cared about coins with a low supply.

XRP is the perfect example of that. It's mind boggling how no one pays attention to how many coins it has in circulation and locked up, but hey, we're dealing with a different group of "investors" here.

The only thing people nowadays care about is prices to go up as far as possible. How and what coin doesn't matter as long as it happens.

[Stinkfist666]

I am very new to this whole thing, but I do agree.

I do have one question though, that I thought of while reading the OP

If BTC really does have an end of the amount that can be mined. What happens to BTC when there is no more Money to be made by mining? Will it just be transaction fees? Who will keep updating the ledger once the profit of mining it disappears?

Or am I missing something?

[MiningSensei]

It was a super bubble super inflated, that was obviously going to crash, and we all are sorry for all those that bought at super overpriced prices.

But the world keeps going, and bitcoin is the same, it is not going to die, because the price is not the most important thing.

At $100, or $100,000. Bitcoin has the same usage, and we all know that.

[mOgliE]

It was a super bubble super inflated, that was obviously going to crash, and we all are sorry for all those that bought at super overpriced prices.

But the world keeps going, and bitcoin is the same, it is not going to die, because the price is not the most important thing.

At $100, or $100,000. Bitcoin has the same usage, and we all know that.

Exactly!

So the only thing that counts is who needs to use it?
The more people need to use it, the more the price will rise.
Adoption is the key to BTC exponential prices!

[Lucius]

People are in a panic because their investment melted, it is as if you are standing at an ice plate and wait to sink every moment. But BTC is has been shown for now as a highly resistant ice plate, melts with the arrival of warm weather ( correction, accumulation periods ), and gets back to the mass and the surface when cold weather occurs ( bull run ).

The very fact that is more than 80% of BTC been mined is a great news for every investor, with the addition that this percentage will increase to 90% in next 14 years and that several millions BTC are probably lost or will be lost in future. Probably we will never have more than 15-16 million BTC which will be available for trading/transaction, and today we have 35 million people who have 1+ million $.

It is true that BTC bubble is burst, and I have no doubt that it will burst again one day - to drive BTC to let's say 50k$ or maybe 100k$ is not a big problem if someone decides to pump billions or trillions in crypto markets - but to hold it there is a real problem.

I just hope that with time BTC can achieve stability, such drastic changes in prices causing mainly negative effects.

[fasdorcas]

Honestly I do not think there are any newbies getting into bitcoin right around these days. The only people left are the old veterans once again hoping to see newbies coming in like how it happened last year because right now the price has been on the downfall for the past whole year and that is why no newbie is strong willed enough to get in and stay through all these horrible days and most probably they will leave.

One of my close friends business partner wanted to get into bitcoin after he heard that bitcoin was 20 thousand dollars and he spend a good chunk of money to buy some and he literally cashed out as soon as it hit 10 thousand dollars, got back only half of his investment and stopped caring about bitcoin totally. Those are the newbies we had, we don't have any left after a bear YEAR.

[bitcoinfuck]

People are in a panic because their investment melted, it is as if you are standing at an ice plate and wait to sink every moment. But BTC is has been shown for now as a highly resistant ice plate, melts with the arrival of warm weather ( correction, accumulation periods ), and gets back to the mass and the surface when cold weather occurs ( bull run ).

The very fact that is more than 80% of BTC been mined is a great news for every investor, with the addition that this percentage will increase to 90% in next 14 years and that several millions BTC are probably lost or will be lost in future. Probably we will never have more than 15-16 million BTC which will be available for trading/transaction, and today we have 35 million people who have 1+ million $.

It is true that BTC bubble is burst, and I have no doubt that it will burst again one day - to drive BTC to let's say 50k$ or maybe 100k$ is not a big problem if someone decides to pump billions or trillions in crypto markets - but to hold it there is a real problem.

I just hope that with time BTC can achieve stability, such drastic changes in prices causing mainly negative effects.

exactly the point, we can't be bull without bear, people who came to be rich scheme are the one shouting.

[magneto]

So with the bubble burst there are of course tons of people crying about the death of btc and why it's going to 0 and your either out NOW or you've lost it all.

It was a bubble. No doubt about it. And quite frankly lots of people here warned new investors about it. You don't go +500% in a couple of months without a good reason.

But it doesn't matter, on the long run BTC will always be better and more solid than fiat. You're a newbie who entered at 10k$ and are shaking about the price going down and down again? Here, let an old bitcoiner explain you why you don't have to worry:

1/ Contrary to what tons of people say, BTC has an actual value and an actual use. Transfering money to anyone anywhere anonymously. Of course there are all the illegal trades like drugs or firearms but don't forget all the perfectly legal people who want to pay for something or send money far away, well if you go with wire transfer expect a 5 to 15% fee. Or use BTC.

2/ More than 80% of btc has already been mined!!! It means contrary to $, there can't be deflation by too much money printing. If tomorrow all the futur BTC to be mined was created, price would mechanically go down by 20% and that's all. To give you an example, 7 billions dollars are printed every year... You think it's safer to own $ that can be printed without any control or logic at any time by any government in need of cash? Think again.

3/ A useless bubble only appear once. When someone gives you the example of Tulipes or Massachussets company as bubble that went +20520125% then down to 0, tell them such assets go to zero then disappear. Btc already had a bubble, it exploded, then went back up. Because it's useful.

4/ Every 4 years the rythm of BTC printing is halved. The "halving" makes the reward of miners divided by 2 so that means less and less btc comes in the market. It means less adoption is needed to make the price up.

In short, remember that BTC is useful and that the worst has already happened! So keep your btc guys

I absolutely agree with all of the statements that OP made in his post.

There is no denying the fact that the markets were overhyped, and BTC was overvalued in proportion to the long term prices that it should be at last year. That's why we are experiencing this bear market as correction from that high.

There is honestly no reason to panic. The fundamentals and utility of bitcoin has not changed, and I still believe in the potential of bitcoin given the fact that it is the first, and most trusted and decentralised cryptocurrency which is able to provide users a store of value for the long term (not necessarily the short term), and facilitate instant transfer of wealth worldwide.

That imo will bring adoption and thus demand in the future, which will push prices up in the long run. That's why I'm buying this bear market, and not panic dumping like a lot of others.

[thecodebear]

Honestly I do not think there are any newbies getting into bitcoin right around these days. The only people left are the old veterans once again hoping to see newbies coming in like how it happened last year because right now the price has been on the downfall for the past whole year and that is why no newbie is strong willed enough to get in and stay through all these horrible days and most probably they will leave.

One of my close friends business partner wanted to get into bitcoin after he heard that bitcoin was 20 thousand dollars and he spend a good chunk of money to buy some and he literally cashed out as soon as it hit 10 thousand dollars, got back only half of his investment and stopped caring about bitcoin totally. Those are the newbies we had, we don't have any left after a bear YEAR.

Which is why it'll take a while for the next bull run to really get going, just like last cycle. Most of the new people leave, and they don't come back until they start hearing about bitcoin rising again. Next time they'll get in much earlier in the bull run (for those that do return) and then tens or hundreds of millions of more people will go through what 2017's newbies went through recently, getting in too late at high prices and then losing lots of their money. Its all part of the cycle. Once people have experienced a full cycle and realized they missed their opportunity to buy in at the bottom because they were selling on the crash and left, then they are ready to do it right on the next full cycle.