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Author Topic: BTC/USD update 12/3/2018  (Read 365 times)
outsidertrader
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December 04, 2018, 07:17:24 PM
 #21

Until your all expected targets are getting achieved you will feels like this only, but when the market goes opposite of your trades you will feel terrible. This is the rule of trading. So i think the market will give movement after 2 or 3 days as right now it will be confusing the traders to move which side and then it will start moving. And if my view is not wrong first it will show $4300 level and then immediately it will go down and test $3600 level.

This is a common mistake among traders.

The price is unpredictable, it is only projectable. It means that can reach it or not, you must not blindly believe in projection, it is only a basis for evaluating opportunities.

The trader should focus on finding the immediate trend, entering the right moment, defending his profit and avoiding great losses.

The market is like a living thing. He is constantly trying to survive, reproduce, and grow. Its power is the volume, it goes where there is more volume, it is of volume that it feeds.

If you believe it will go up to 4.3K you should buy it when it signals purchase. Make profits when you reach primary goal and keep a profit stop for the rest of the position. In case of reversal in the 4.3k you should go short, even if your goal is 3.6k you should keep a trailing stop.

That's how it works. Tracing lines and figures in the charts is very beautiful, serves to teach and analyze a current condition, but can not predict anything.
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December 04, 2018, 11:47:45 PM
 #22

The market is bearish for the entire year. Prices are dropping sharply with little recovery and rise for some times. With the current situation, there are traders who really make the most out of it. They are doing short trading with no hassle. The technique they use looks so easy to them, but for most traders it is not. So, learn from them. Easier said than done with the volatlity of the market.
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December 05, 2018, 05:59:34 AM
 #23

the problem with this kind of analysis is that technical analysis is completely worthless for bitcoin and right now the market is under manipulation which means everything you know and analyze becomes even more worthless!

in other words you can't predict what can happen by looking at lower highs, and higher lows and stuff like that. as for supports, i don't think we have any meaningful level anymore. anything can be broken and it can mean nothing.
and i think we will see this unpredictable market for at least another 3 months.

I dont Think so.

A good Technical Analysis will show you what side the market is been manipulated, and you wil follow the manipulation.

By my experience This market appears to be Much less manipulated than any other market, the imediate trend is quite predictable. I may say its easier to trade.

Technical analysis is there to predict the market not to talk about it after it happened. of course you can see the manipulation using TA afterwards but not before hand and that is what i am trying to say. when there is manipulation it means it is breaking every rule and because of that it becomes unpredictable.

as for comparison, comparing bitcoin to altcoins obviously it is far less manipulated. but comparing it to other bigger markets like stocks market bitcoin is very manipulated that is another reason for why TA won't work.

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December 05, 2018, 08:10:56 AM
 #24

Oppened my first long in two months.

We'll see the 4500$ very soon then go back to 3500$.

BTC is just not capable of going a straight line, it never happened and will never happen. So you got to use the rebounds to accumulate more BTC!
Indeed, after bitcoin reached a high maximum value last year its time for a revenge there ain't no coin going in a straight line soaring. Manipulated or not bitcoin price will go down expectedly because of what is happening outside its reach and by it bitcoin is being affected. Up and down, this is how literally the market works, long live to those who knows!

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adaseb
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December 05, 2018, 08:14:02 AM
 #25

BTC can't seem to catch a break. Some NASDAQ media personnel basically confirmed the NASDAQ bitcoin futures in Q1-Q2 of 2019 and BTC went down anyways.

Honestly it doesn't look good. The bounce was very weak and most likely the $3500 will break and we will head into the $3250 or $3000 area sometime this month.

There doesn't seem to be anything bullish on the charts right now.

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outsidertrader
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December 05, 2018, 10:15:04 AM
 #26

the problem with this kind of analysis is that technical analysis is completely worthless for bitcoin and right now the market is under manipulation which means everything you know and analyze becomes even more worthless!

in other words you can't predict what can happen by looking at lower highs, and higher lows and stuff like that. as for supports, i don't think we have any meaningful level anymore. anything can be broken and it can mean nothing.
and i think we will see this unpredictable market for at least another 3 months.

I dont Think so.

A good Technical Analysis will show you what side the market is been manipulated, and you wil follow the manipulation.

By my experience This market appears to be Much less manipulated than any other market, the imediate trend is quite predictable. I may say its easier to trade.

Technical analysis is there to predict the market not to talk about it after it happened. of course you can see the manipulation using TA afterwards but not before hand and that is what i am trying to say. when there is manipulation it means it is breaking every rule and because of that it becomes unpredictable.

as for comparison, comparing bitcoin to altcoins obviously it is far less manipulated. but comparing it to other bigger markets like stocks market bitcoin is very manipulated that is another reason for why TA won't work.

You are not a Trader and certainly not a Analist.

You are Wrong by the way.

Stock Market seems to be much more manipulated, any trader with experience can see that Bitcoin respects much more the TA than stock markets.

 The reason is simple:

 In the stock markets, as the fiat coins market or comodities, there are lots of big players, governements, hedge funds, bankers, lots of institutional money on it. This makes the Technical Analysis more difficult, you need to read the tape, News, be very attempt every time to play with those guys. And they use their money to manipulate the market, not to earn some pips for a day, there are lots of other interests behind. So its hard to play, but a good trader still able to do.

Bitcoin has not those players. Those ho plays BItcoin just want some pips, we are all playing for the same reason. You can try to manipulate this market using big amount of money, but anything could happen and you can lost it all, so big players do not play here, they dont want to risk losing their money for us, the small guys.

Technical Analysis do not predict anything. You are wrong again!

You must study.
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December 05, 2018, 01:01:35 PM
 #27

No more breakouts that I assume! I want to look at the chart today but when I saw this thread, I became disappointed because I will see a red market again. It is just a waste of energy and internet to log in on my account. Breakouts will happen in 2019, I think this is the year that we need to prepare for the come back of cryptocurrency.

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December 05, 2018, 02:13:51 PM
 #28

BTC can't seem to catch a break. Some NASDAQ media personnel basically confirmed the NASDAQ bitcoin futures in Q1-Q2 of 2019 and BTC went down anyways.

Honestly it doesn't look good. The bounce was very weak and most likely the $3500 will break and we will head into the $3250 or $3000 area sometime this month.

There doesn't seem to be anything bullish on the charts right now.

3k$ this month?

That seems a bit too much for me.

I'm a bit disapointed by the poor rebound I have to admit, my long was closed with near 0 profit... But still I don't think it'll go so low so fast. Don't forget that historically the Q1 have always been very poor timeframes for BTC so if you think anything bottom-like will happen it will probably be around this time rather than by December.

Leonard2016
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December 05, 2018, 05:30:54 PM
 #29

I think Bitcoin is still bearish and it is breaking its resistances , the next step in my view is around 2800$ , We will see some up and down on its way but the trend is bearish because of bitcoin's network difficulty and some giant whales .

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December 05, 2018, 07:03:50 PM
 #30


Well the support held with a quick rebuff and a big green candle. So next stop seems to be a test of mid 4000s. Price movement at the moment reminds me of the range around 6k, very predictable and little movement. That's why I suspect we're not ready for a reversal. Be interesting to see how the market would respond to a bullish movement above 4.5k like you spoke of. Wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people FOMO'd in because there's been a lot of talk of recovery lately.

I dont Think the FOMO people will be bigger than the LOSS people (the ones that have bought at 6.000).

 Because of the size of the 6k bottom's range... Too many Holders bought there for too long time.


We must see the market getting into a big Range for a Healthy rise:

The bottomness the Range would be better for the up trend.

If the Range Balance from 3.500 to 6.000 would be a BAD range. Its should be almost FLAT at the Bottom. We need a FLAT RANGE to rocket up again!

Hmm, that's a very good point, a lot of people are going to take the opportunity to break even and leave the market. Although I would think that the majority buying at 6k would've had quite a long term outlook and that shouldn't be too in jeopardy, but that's coming from someone who is bullish long term.

We won't be rocketing anywhere, even if the price returns to the ATH it's going to take a long term, almost certainly longer than last time the price went from 3k to 20k.

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December 05, 2018, 08:01:42 PM
Last edit: December 06, 2018, 09:45:16 AM by DarkBullet
 #31

It looks like an inverse head and shoulder but could looks like a double bottom.  Sometimes, technical analysis mislead us or make any confusion when will the price go. There are other possible scenarios that could happen depending on fundamental analysis. Depending on the chart you provided, it looks like the support was already broken so we may expect $3300 to $3500 for bitcoin by next week or so. Further damage or breaking the $3000 price could lead bitcoin at $2500 to $2800. Today's market is very confusing.

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December 05, 2018, 10:39:27 PM
 #32

Don't forget that historically the Q1 have always been very poor timeframes for BTC so if you think anything bottom-like will happen it will probably be around this time rather than by December.
Could be, but in the same way, Q4 has *nearly* always been a bullish time frame for Bitcoin, yet it turned out to be one of the worst time frames of the last years. Nothing makes sense when the market is messed up like it is right now.

It does the opposite of what we believe it will do. Most of the TA guys based on seasonality expected the price to break out of its triangle to the north, but south it went. It won't surprise me if people will be fooled yet again.

Either way, it's always good to have fiat aside during a bear market, because there simply isn't a way to know where the market will bottom out. I rather work with the market and buy it down than to go long and expect a massive leg up.

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December 06, 2018, 05:18:01 AM
 #33

...

You are not a Trader and certainly not a Analist.

You are Wrong by the way.

Stock Market seems to be much more manipulated, any trader with experience can see that Bitcoin respects much more the TA than stock markets.

 The reason is simple:

 In the stock markets, as the fiat coins market or comodities, there are lots of big players, governements, hedge funds, bankers, lots of institutional money on it. This makes the Technical Analysis more difficult, you need to read the tape, News, be very attempt every time to play with those guys. And they use their money to manipulate the market, not to earn some pips for a day, there are lots of other interests behind. So its hard to play, but a good trader still able to do.

Bitcoin has not those players. Those ho plays BItcoin just want some pips, we are all playing for the same reason. You can try to manipulate this market using big amount of money, but anything could happen and you can lost it all, so big players do not play here, they dont want to risk losing their money for us, the small guys.

Technical Analysis do not predict anything. You are wrong again!

You must study.

that is just your opinion.
obviously there is manipulation anywhere that money is involved and stock market is not an exception but since bitcoin is unregulated and also much smaller than stocks market it makes it so much easier to manipulate.
and that is not something that i say alone, if you ask 100 people who have been around in both markets for a decent amount of time, all of them are going to tell you the same thing.

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December 06, 2018, 03:08:39 PM
 #34

Hmm, that's a very good point, a lot of people are going to take the opportunity to break even and leave the market. Although I would think that the majority buying at 6k would've had quite a long term outlook and that shouldn't be too in jeopardy, but that's coming from someone who is bullish long term.

We won't be rocketing anywhere, even if the price returns to the ATH it's going to take a long term, almost certainly longer than last time the price went from 3k to 20k.


Each cycle the system gets more money, at the same time that the scarcity increases each Bullrun.

So I believe in a faster and greater rise every time its start a new up trend.

This movement will keep repeating until the system reaches perpetuity, which will be when it will fluctuate according to the economy.
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December 06, 2018, 05:37:44 PM
 #35

Hmm, that's a very good point, a lot of people are going to take the opportunity to break even and leave the market. Although I would think that the majority buying at 6k would've had quite a long term outlook and that shouldn't be too in jeopardy, but that's coming from someone who is bullish long term.

We won't be rocketing anywhere, even if the price returns to the ATH it's going to take a long term, almost certainly longer than last time the price went from 3k to 20k.


Each cycle the system gets more money, at the same time that the scarcity increases each Bullrun.

So I believe in a faster and greater rise every time its start a new up trend.

This movement will keep repeating until the system reaches perpetuity, which will be when it will fluctuate according to the economy.

Yes but at the same time, each cycle it requires more money to increase the market cap or price by the same percentage as previously. One major institutional investment in the early days would sky rocket the market cap compared to it now just being a modest increase.

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