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Author Topic: We've just seen the second largest percentage drop in the hash rate.  (Read 174 times)
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December 04, 2018, 01:50:03 PM
 #1

Over the last few weeks, the hash rate for Bitcoin mining has dropped by the second largest amount in percentage terms.
What do you think about this? Is it going to increase mining decentralisation, or is it just miners getting rid of uneconomic mining rigs?
How will it affect the price of Bitcoin? - It could increase interest in Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining, and lead to a new bull run, or it could be an indication of a possible continuation of the bear market.

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December 04, 2018, 03:59:40 PM
 #2

I read an article on that yesterday and it posits that a drop in hashrate means it would take longer for new blocks to be found.

It could likely be miners getting rid of uneconomic rigs and also price drops which has effected mining rewards.
I think it also creates an opportunity especially in the mining sector for new investors to get in.
It would be interesting to see how it affects the price, if at all it does.

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December 04, 2018, 04:05:48 PM
Merited by Foxpup (3)
 #3

miners getting rid of uneconomic mining rigs?

i heard some people say this is the reason, and that may be a part of it but i think the main reason is simply the price drop itself! just like when price rises, mining bitcoin becomes more profitable and as a result more miners come in (ie hashrate goes up), when price drops mining bitcoin becomes less profitable and as a result some miners quit.
currently we are more than 30% lower than the previous stable price above $6k and same amount is gone from profits so it is logical to see near as much drop in hashrate also.

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December 04, 2018, 04:17:29 PM
Merited by suchmoon (4)
 #4

Is it going to increase mining decentralisation, or is it just miners getting rid of uneconomic mining rigs?

I think those who are mining at large scale, joined the mining game much earlier and whose cost of production is around 3K and below are still in the game, New inexperienced miners who joined during the previous bull run when bitcoin prices where soaring have definitely dropped off.
I don't think the mining decentralization is on the increase instead its on a decline as of now.

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December 04, 2018, 04:26:44 PM
 #5

This is the result of hash war of BCHABC and BCHSV. Largest mining pool Bitcoin.com has diverted to BCHABC, and suddenly drop hash rate together with bitcoin price. So Bitcoin miners become disappointed and start leave Bitcoin mining. So hash rate drop one more time and at the same time price drop more. On the other hand market is manipulating hardly by spreading FOMO and FUD. Price isn't going to recover earlier if there is no ETF/ETP or any others positive news. Why miner will mine bitcoin if they can get more profit by mine other coin? Everyone looking where is more profit. Hash rate will increase with price. If price not recover early then there is low chance increase hash rate.

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December 04, 2018, 05:46:17 PM
 #6

Over the last few weeks, the hash rate for Bitcoin mining has dropped by the second largest amount in percentage terms.
What do you think about this? Is it going to increase mining decentralisation, or is it just miners getting rid of uneconomic mining rigs?
How will it affect the price of Bitcoin? - It could increase interest in Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining, and lead to a new bull run, or it could be an indication of a possible continuation of the bear market.

The Hash rate drop is not at all surprising it was always bound to happen, the rigs used by miners were making mining unprofitable due to falling prices. I feel it's temporary cause once we see a rally, the miners will be back, I feel it shall show some effect on the prices as less bitcoins shall be mined which shall decrease supply and if more demand comes prices shall rise. I'm not sure it'll have a direct effect for a bull run, but if demand exceeds supply we may just see a bull run happening.

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December 05, 2018, 12:12:56 AM
Merited by Welsh (5), suchmoon (4), dbshck (3)
 #7

I was also watching this and it's quite interesting to see what will happen. I heard from many farms that they have shut down the miners as long as it's not profitable to mine and switch on the miners again when electricity prices can be covered. But BTC price needs to increase to a sufficient limit to avoid switching miners off and on all the time when the price keeps being volatile.
Right now the electricity price should be cheaper than around 0.05$ kWh to cover electricity and maintenance. For sure it depends also on salaries for employees which are very different depending on the country. But getting more BTC after paying employees and electricity is not the final calculation. The latest ASICs last only for a few years. If it's not possible to get your ROI during this period of time, you are also mining at a loss because ASICs are not free. In most cases you need for a lifetime of 2 to 3 years per miner a ROI of 33% to 50% per year. ROI calculated in BTC.

I posted this table a few weeks ago in the german section and now we are at a level from late July. The next difficulty adjustment seems to be also getting down.  

Time                                Difficulty                                     change                average block time    

2018-12-03 12:59:28    5,646,403,851,534 - 5.65 T       - 15.13 %     11 min 47 s    
2018-11-17 00:51:24    6,653,303,141,405 - 6.65 T       - 7.39 %       10 min 48 s    
2018-11-01 21:54:16    7,184,404,942,701 - 7.18 T       + 0.02 %     10 min 00 s    
2018-10-18 20:37:47   7,182,852,313,938 - 7.18 T       - 3.65 %       10 min 23 s    
2018-10-04 09:49:22    7,454,968,648,263 - 7.45 T       + 4.23 %      09 min 36 s    
2018-09-20 23:15:39    7,152,633,351,906 - 7.15 T       + 1.90 %      09 min 49 s    
2018-09-07 05:14:39    7,019,199,231,177 - 7.02 T       + 4.34 %      09 min 36 s    
2018-08-24 18:50:31    6,727,225,469,722 - 6.73 T       + 5.29 %      09 min 30 s    
2018-08-11 11:40:59    6,389,316,883,511 - 6.39 T       + 7.39 %      09 min 20 s    
2018-07-29 10:19:31    5,949,437,371,609 - 5.95 T       + 14.88 %     08 min 42 s    
2018-07-17 05:50:49    5,178,671,069,072 - 5.18 T       - 3.45 %      10 min 22 s    
2018-07-02 17:34:21    5,363,678,461,481 - 5.36 T       + 5.64 %      09 min 28 s    
2018-06-19 11:20:45    5,077,499,034,879 - 5.08 T       + 2.77 %      09 min 44 s    
2018-06-05 20:18:06    4,940,704,885,521 - 4.94 T       + 14.71 %     08 min 43 s    
2018-05-24 15:20:53    4,306,949,573,981 - 4.31 T       + 3.94 %      09 min 38 s    
2018-05-11 03:54:15    4,143,878,474,754 - 4.14 T       + 3.03 %      09 min 43 s    
2018-04-27 13:24:13    4,022,059,196,164 - 4.02 T       + 4.76 %      09 min 33 s    
2018-04-14 04:28:52    3,839,316,899,029 - 3.84 T       + 9.35 %      09 min 09 s    
2018-04-01 09:05:57    3,511,060,552,899 - 3.51 T       + 1.40 %      09 min 52 s    
2018-03-18 12:40:18    3,462,542,391,191 - 3.46 T       + 5.23 %      09 min 30 s    
2018-03-05 05:21:18    3,290,605,988,755 - 3.29 T       + 9.42 %      09 min 10 s    
2018-02-20 09:20:59    3,007,383,866,429 - 3.01 T       + 4.62 %      09 min 34 s    
2018-02-07 00:08:07    2,874,674,234,415 - 2.87 T       + 10.43 %     09 min 03 s    
2018-01-25 07:48:20    2,603,077,300,218 - 2.60 T       + 16.84 %     08 min 34 s    
2018-01-13 08:12:34    2,227,847,638,503 - 2.23 T       + 15.36 %     08 min 40 s    
2018-01-01 04:56:10    1,931,136,454,487 - 1.93 T       + 3.10 %      09 min 42 s    
2017-12-18 14:55:20    1,873,105,475,221 - 1.87 T       + 17.74 %     08 min 30 s    
2017-12-06 17:23:21    1,590,896,927,258 - 1.59 T       + 18.11 %     08 min 28 s    
2017-11-24 20:53:16    1,347,001,430,558 - 1.35 T        - 1.28 %      10 min 08 s    
2017-11-10 16:13:51    1,364,422,081,125 - 1.36 T        - 6.09 %      10 min 40 s    
2017-10-26 18:52:42    1,452,839,779,145 - 1.45 T       + 21.39 %      08 min 14 s    
2017-10-15 06:05:02    1,196,792,694,098 - 1.20 T       + 6.49 %       09 min 24 s    
2017-10-02 02:27:46    1,123,863,285,132 - 1.12 T       + 1.85 %       09 min 49 s    
2017-09-18 08:31:16    1,103,400,932,964 - 1.10 T       + 19.58 %     08 min 22 s    
2017-09-06 15:23:15    922,724,699,725 - 922.72 G       + 3.89 %      09 min 38 s    
2017-08-24 03:57:37    888,171,856,257 - 888.17 G       - 3.80 %      10 min 24 s    
2017-08-09 14:36:50    923,233,068,448 - 923.23 G       + 7.32 %      09 min 20 s    
2017-07-27 13:03:54    860,221,984,436 - 860.22 G       + 6.92 %      09 min 21 s    
source: BTC.com

I don't know any official numbers but it makes sense that low BTC prices are better for large mining farms because they have often very cheap electricity and after all very low maintenance costs due to their large scale operations.


It will be interesting to see how things will proceed when BTC will go to previous highs or at least to 10,000$. My expectation is a much higher difficulty than before the recent drop because all of them are only waiting to switch on their miners again.

I read an article on that yesterday and it posits that a drop in hashrate means it would take longer for new blocks to be found.
This should not be a problem, the difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks (around 2 weeks) to keep the blocktime close around 10 minutes. If the hashrate decreases during a 2016 block period, the difficulty will also decrease next difficulty adjustment.
You can see it as average block time in the table Smiley

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December 05, 2018, 01:37:07 AM
 #8

Over the last few weeks, the hash rate for Bitcoin mining has dropped by the second largest amount in percentage terms.
Its great it getting lowered in parts because sudden 50% decrease could cripple speed of finding new blocks instead of average 10 minutes it could be average 1 hour till new difficulty would get approved.
It doesnt matter how much hash rate there is, until it will be too small to secure network. Many miners have now reality check with real world financing Tongue

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December 05, 2018, 01:56:07 AM
 #9

I do not think gradual drop in hashrate is  problem (if it drop too suddenly then it cause issues that miners are not able to mine the blocks.)

If we plot hashrate graph on price analysis chart, we are able to see that the current price are corresponding to Sep 2017 price when hashrate was 8*10E6 TH/s. We still have hashrate of more than 30*10E6 TH/s , that is roughly 4x .
If network is secure at that time, I do not see any reason of worry now.

Anyways let think who will like to weaken the networks?
Only anti-cryptocurrency guys  but bankers themselves more interested in booking profits in crypto instead of destroying it do I will rule out them.
Any Bitcoin hater so that their alternate currency will be benefited?  I do not think so because this attack will weaken who crypto currency market not only the bitcoin.

I do not see anybody can be motivated to destroy the network even hashrate is decreasing.
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December 06, 2018, 01:15:40 AM
 #10

I do not think gradual drop in hashrate is  problem (if it drop too suddenly then it cause issues that miners are not able to mine the blocks.)

If we plot hashrate graph on price analysis chart, we are able to see that the current price are corresponding to Sep 2017 price when hashrate was 8*10E6 TH/s. We still have hashrate of more than 30*10E6 TH/s , that is roughly 4x .
If network is secure at that time, I do not see any reason of worry now.

there's definitely no threat to network security. these downward difficulty drops have also been fairly modest---a 15% adjustment last time around. if hash rate were dropping so much that old hardware could begin attacking the network, it would be a different story, but we're nowhere near that point.

this is just the miner speculation cycle playing out. it's related to the bitcoin price cycle, but doesn't mirror it exactly. too much hashpower came online, making profitability dwindle in the context of the bear market. this is just a healthy and orderly reversal.

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December 06, 2018, 02:15:02 AM
 #11

Definitely the bear market will going to continue with the hash rate drop. This is because people are showing little interest anymore and probably miners are getting rid out of their mining activity due to some losses with the resources and the operations of mining bitcoin with no profit at all.

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hugeblack
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BTC2USD: Why Would I sell the future for the past?


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December 06, 2018, 10:53:26 AM
 #12

Over the last few weeks -snip-
If we follow up on what happened during those weeks we will find out why.


, the hash rate for Bitcoin mining has dropped by the second largest amount in percentage terms.
Bitcoin.com & others who support panic have some percentage of the power of mining, they will be used to weaken Bitcoin and strengthen their Shits.
I do not think it has anything to do with the economic return from mining.
See the August charts last year will show more clarity.


check BitcoinCash Bitcoin SV hash rate ---> https://cash.coin.dance/blocks

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STOP SNITCHIN'


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December 06, 2018, 09:32:59 PM
 #13

, the hash rate for Bitcoin mining has dropped by the second largest amount in percentage terms.
Bitcoin.com & others who support panic have some percentage of the power of mining, they will be used to weaken Bitcoin and strengthen their Shits.
I do not think it has anything to do with the economic return from mining.

Their share of hash rate wasn't particularly large, and was probably more than reflected in the November 16th difficulty adjustment (-7.39%). The hash rate has dropped another 20% since than, presumably because profitability is dropping and miners are shutting down. This seems reasonable considering the market has dropped 43% in price.

daisynonwak
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December 06, 2018, 11:23:40 PM
 #14

I felt so sad about the drop this past few days  Sad it will catch up and will go back to the normal
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December 07, 2018, 08:14:16 AM
 #15

I felt so sad about the drop this past few days  Sad it will catch up and will go back to the normal
That will only happen if the market shows some positives,because at this very moment,we are losing more miners than we can handle and thus a drop in the hashrate/price,its all about profitability for the miners and if they presume to mine with such large costs isn't profitable anymore,thus more bad signs for the network

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