Is Bitcoin Price Heading to Low $3,000? Traders Expect Short-Term Downtrend

[cybersofts]

On January 11, the crypto market experienced an intense sell-off as the Bitcoin price dropped below the $3,600 mark and major digital assets recorded drops in the range of 10 to 15 percent.

Following a drop in the price of BTC from $4,036 to $3,503, traders expect the dominant cryptocurrency to fall below key support levels in the low $3,000 region, possibly below $3,300.





Crypto Winter Not Over
In mid-December, prior to Christmas Eve, many investors in the cryptocurrency market demonstrated renewed optimism toward a short-term trend reversal of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies due to the strong recovery of BTC from its 12-month low at $3,122.

From December 17 to 20, the Bitcoin price increased from $3,181 to $4,172, by more than 31 percent within a three-day span.

But, at the time, an FX hedge fund CEO Su Zhu said that buy walls on leading fiat-to-crypto exchanges in the likes of Coinbase and Bitstamp started to build up in the $3,200 to $3,300 range and investors began accumulating the asset at a low price range.

He said on December 13:

    10% down from here ($3,300), buy walls on @Coinbase are now the largest (in BTC notional ) since mid-2015. Similar for Bitstamp. To break lower will require filling these fiat-backed bids. Either 1) more BTC borrow to come online 2) KYC-able off-ramp selling. Derivatives selling will just lead to funding becoming very negative as it has been.

The short-term rally Bitcoin experienced from December 17 to 20 was essentially a corrective rally triggered by oversold conditions and given the lack of momentum of the asset throughout late December and early January, it was fairly evident that the probability of a proper short-term rally was low.

DonAlt, a cryptocurrency investor and technical analyst, said after BTC fell below $3,600 that a drop to $3,350 can be expected as a support level at $3,600 was cleanly breached.

“Clean break of support. If we do retest $3,700 on the weekend and don’t manage to close above there I’m expecting $3,350. I’ll most likely close my hedge short there. This is the reason why you shouldn’t trust mismatched patterns – it’s an easy way to get rekt,” the trader said.


Expect Low Liquidity Assets to Underperform
As Bitcoin dropped by more than 10 percent in a 48-hour period, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and other major cryptocurrencies recorded 15 percent falls against the U.S. dollar.

Ethereum, which was expected to maintain a positive upward price movement in anticipation of its Constantinople hard fork on January 14, was overtaken by Ripple.

Although the daily volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum still remain relatively high, the volume of the cryptocurrency market is hovering at $15 billion, down $7 billion since January 10.

If crypto assets continue to free fall without meaningful volume and strong sell pressure, a short-term drop should be expected.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/is-bitcoin-price-heading-to-low-3000-traders-expect-short-term-downtrend/

[hatshepsut93]

Well, the double top pattern seems to be there, so the bearishness is expected. It might be just a self-fullfilling prophecy, big this pattern is very famours, and in this case there's a chance that we'll see some recovery later, or maybe we are going to even lower lows. There's still no guarantee that we have passed the bottom, so prices below $3,000 are still on the table.

[BitHodler]

The crypto winter isn't even over when we hit $5000 again. People turn bullish the moment we go up a few % and turn bearish if we go the other way. Since when is noob sentiment an indicator?

It's going to be interesting to see how the market reacts to a retest of the 200WMA, which it nicely respected the last time. If we fall below that there is still the $3000 physiological barrier that will trigger buy orders to come in.

So far, each time the volumes went down significantly there was a dump taking the market down, which seems to be an interesting enough development to exploit as trader. But you'll see, when I go for it, I'm rekt.

[b3j0]

I hope the price of bitcoin doesn't drop to the price of $ 3k or even drop below $ 3k. yesterday the price of bitcoin has exceeded $ 4k and it only lasted a while, this is proof that there are still many investors who are afraid to hold bitcoin too long.

[Thanasis]

I hope the price of bitcoin doesn't drop to the price of $ 3k or even drop below $ 3k. yesterday the price of bitcoin has exceeded $ 4k and it only lasted a while, this is proof that there are still many investors who are afraid to hold bitcoin too long.

Why you are saying that the prices won't fall below 3000 or 4000 Dollar just because most of the investors afraid to hold  all the bitcoin it doesn't really make any sense at all.

[btc_angela]

I hope the price of bitcoin doesn't drop to the price of $ 3k or even drop below $ 3k. yesterday the price of bitcoin has exceeded $ 4k and it only lasted a while, this is proof that there are still many investors who are afraid to hold bitcoin too long.

Well investors are getting smarter, and speculators are taking advantage of those short price spike and shorting bitcoin. So that's why the price is not holding that long. But if we could just break out around the $4200 level, I speculate that it could be the start of a momentum of sort and march towards the $5K levels again.

[exstasie]

Right now, we're hovering in the 61.8-70.5% retracement area. This is usually the last line of defense before a retest of the lows. I was originally expecting a bottom retest, but momentum and proportions look good for another leg up if bulls can hold this area. If bulls don't lose too much more ground and begin a recovery in the next 1-2 days, there's still a good chance for another leg up to $5K+.

[Ararbermas]

I hope the price of bitcoin doesn't drop to the price of $ 3k or even drop below $ 3k. yesterday the price of bitcoin has exceeded $ 4k and it only lasted a while, this is proof that there are still many investors who are afraid to hold bitcoin too long.

don't worry mate it will never go below 3k stage. And this pattern?  for me in my view probably this is just a correction which temporary and soon for sure it will be fine. Just accumulate instead of worrying mate and relax because indeed 2019 is just starting and i have doubt there's a big wave  will emerge soon. 

[Herbert2020]

another nonsense article about price!
each time there is a period like this when price becomes moderately stable all these yellow news sites start their bullshit factory to publish the most outrageous crap each day.
you can't start to presume what traders "expect" from bitcoin's short term trend specially because the charts don't show anything. IF what CCN bullshit is claiming were true and traders were expecting downtrend then they would have been selling their bitcoins and selling was visible on the charts. and that clearly is not happening so CCN is talking out of their asses.

[omonuyak]

Bitcoin has lose significant values since the beginning of this year again after making some pumping from the high this year. I hope this is a little corrections and we are not heading to $3000! I think 2019, should be a favourable year in the history of cryptocurrencies market and that means we should invest now that the price is very low.

[darewaller]

I doubt it will continue to drop, right now I think it has returned from 3.440 levels and from here on out it will probably go back to 4 thousand dollar levels, not like it will break that and move any further but those levels seem like proper level it can reach after a spike. We are living in a time when price moves high and low between 3.4 and 4 thousand dollars quite frequently and until something major happens the price will stay here. Without a proper reason to move higher or drop lower the price will bounce like a ping pong game.

So, right now we have seen the low once again which means it will ping pong itself upwards towards 4 thousand dollars once again and without a major shocking thing happening it will go back down to these levels again, this will continue forever until something changes.

[thecodebear]

Bitcoin has lose significant values since the beginning of this year again after making some pumping from the high this year. I hope this is a little corrections and we are not heading to $3000! I think 2019, should be a favourable year in the history of cryptocurrencies market and that means we should invest now that the price is very low.

Nope, terrible advice.

2019 will be a poor year.

All charts say so.

Wait for 2020 if you want to make a profit.

You're welcome.

Now that truly is terrible advice. The first half of the year or so may be hanging around 3000 - 5000 but by end of the year you'll have at least doubled your money if not tripled if you're buying in now in the 3000s. 2018 was the crash year, 2019 is the bottoming and turn around year starting the next bull market. 2020 will probably make strong gains and probably 2021 will be the next Bitcoin/crypto craze. It might take a bit longer or a bit shorter for all this to happen, but if you wait a year to invest you'll be absolutely buying in at much higher prices than there are right now.

[1Referee]

don't worry mate it will never go below 3k stage. And this pattern?  for me in my view probably this is just a correction which temporary and soon for sure it will be fine. Just accumulate instead of worrying mate and relax because indeed 2019 is just starting and i have doubt there's a big wave  will emerge soon. 

Just like how the price according to people couldn't go below the $6000 level, surprise surprise.

I don't expect Bitcoin to break $3000 but don't discard the possibility of it to happen either, because there is nothing that prevents large holders from randomly tanking the price which will very likely trigger loads of stops. People who assume that certain price levels will hold don't have any respect for the market at all, because traders and investors who respect markets are fearful, even in times there is nothing to fear.

I still expect sideways movement for a couple of more months between $3000-$4000 and from there hopefully a positive breakout.

[thecodebear]

don't worry mate it will never go below 3k stage. And this pattern?  for me in my view probably this is just a correction which temporary and soon for sure it will be fine. Just accumulate instead of worrying mate and relax because indeed 2019 is just starting and i have doubt there's a big wave  will emerge soon. 

Just like how the price according to people couldn't go below the $6000 level, surprise surprise.

I don't expect Bitcoin to break $3000 but don't discard the possibility of it to happen either, because there is nothing that prevents large holders from randomly tanking the price which will very likely trigger loads of stops. People who assume that certain price levels will hold don't have any respect for the market at all, because traders and investors who respect markets are fearful, even in times there is nothing to fear.

I still expect sideways movement for a couple of more months between $3000-$4000 and from there hopefully a positive breakout.

Well said. I give 3000 breaking a 50-50 shot. Personally I think it'll hold but wouldn't at all be surprised to see a short lived dip below it. I definitely didn't think ~6000 would break, and I don't think it would have if not for the BCH nonsense, but I also wasn't buying that high so it had no effect on my investing, when it fell under 4000 I started buying and will continue buying while it is this low.

I agree on the current 3000s/4000s price being the bottom and hanging around for a while. I think it'll take until the summer to break out of the bottom and start going up again but thats just pure guesswork based on last cycle's bottoming out phase.

[STT]

Alot of people seem to estimate the bottom is not occurring until we overshoot, become massively inaccurate and experience a spike of some kind of a timeline.   Could be 4hr bar for a brief part of the day or the course of the price over a day going far too low but then recovering it back so it looks like a pin.   
The reason being or least how its told is that a genuine bottom is missed by the majority and most dont realise its there until afterwards as we accelerate away and more try to part of the lowest price while confirming the previous bigger low.

I'm not expert enough to have this level of confidence but often it seems the market tries to trick its way past major levels.   So it wouldnt be 3000 in this case in a simple way, it'd whip past then back over again with people selling out as there stop loss is exceeded only to see bigger buyers take up that easy forced sell as a profit.   How to tell exactly I'm not sure, thats the skill I guess especially in seconds or minutes

[figmentofmyass]

The first half of the year or so may be hanging around 3000 - 5000 but by end of the year you'll have at least doubled your money if not tripled if you're buying in now in the 3000s.

if the chart repeats what it did in 2015, then you're right. but isn't that a big if?

conventional wisdom says we'll only be able to know the bottom is in long after the fact, after a bull market has already begun. right now, it's just a guessing game. how do you know $3k is the bottom of the range, rather than $1000? it makes a big difference.

[marcbitcoins]

Everything is possible now for the Bitcoin market because bearish market is still in effect and as i remember before that mostly don't believed that Bitcoin price will not fall down below $5,000 level due to many countries are already used Bitcoin as a currency for direct spending but still it happen in which Bitcoin is at below $4,000 level now. Hopefully, ETF products will be approved soon as i believed that it will attract millions to billions of investments making Bitcoin to become great again.

[itos84]

I think a better approach is the Dollar Cost Average strategy for this bear market. If you start buying now and it goes between 3K-4K on average your buying price will be 3500. If an unexpected crash happens to 2750 then your average could be 3375 and that’s still a really good price on average if you think bitcoin will reach 10K or more in 2021.

I am following this strategy buying a fixed amount of bitcoin everyday regarding the price. It’s also a stress free strategy since it’s practically impossible to know for sure which is the bottom till it’s already gone

[WinslowIII]

I think a better approach is the Dollar Cost Average strategy for this bear market. If you start buying now and it goes between 3K-4K on average your buying price will be 3500. If an unexpected crash happens to 2750 then your average could be 3375 and that’s still a really good price on average if you think bitcoin will reach 10K or more in 2021.

I am following this strategy buying a fixed amount of bitcoin everyday regarding the price. It’s also a stress free strategy since it’s practically impossible to know for sure which is the bottom till it’s already gone

Btc price is not going to $10k in 2021. It's either going $100k+ or next to zero in 2021.

[figmentofmyass]

I think a better approach is the Dollar Cost Average strategy for this bear market. If you start buying now and it goes between 3K-4K on average your buying price will be 3500. If an unexpected crash happens to 2750 then your average could be 3375 and that’s still a really good price on average if you think bitcoin will reach 10K or more in 2021.

I am following this strategy buying a fixed amount of bitcoin everyday regarding the price. It’s also a stress free strategy since it’s practically impossible to know for sure which is the bottom till it’s already gone

i'm not a huge fan of dollar cost averaging. averaging down into a bear market is conventionally seen as dangerous and indicative of a gambler---someone who doesn't use risk management (stop losses) in trading.

i think it's okay for bitcoin because i'm confident in the long term uptrend, but if you have any ability to read market trends, you can do better with very basic trading strategies. your example above sounds nice, but DCA can also work like this: price goes from $20k to $1k, and you start buying at $18k. by the end of the bear market, these folks will be bleeding hard and capitulating.