Bitcoin ETF

[Kemarit]

I still have mix emotions about the whole Bitcoin ETF scenario. Yes, it might be the catalyst to push the market or at least improved the situation short term, but how about long term though? Will it be sustainable? Or the custodian will have so much power to control the price? Correct me if I'm wrong, custodian can wield so much power than they can decide anything without consulting its users so for me it will established centralization which can really change the outlook of bitcoin specially for purist.

[nazaididuan1]

The cryptocurrency plummeted this year, causing many people to lose confidence in BTC, and many people have withdrawn from the blockchain market!
Without a regulatory policy for cryptocurrencies, BTC's ETF is difficult to pass!

[SyrulRamadhan]

bitcoin ETF is definitely awaited because it could be good news for cryptocurrency for price recovery, if it is approved I am sure the price will rise again like last year and if it is rejected maybe the price will go down very deep

[kelz1]

The community needs new blood and these institutional investors have fat wallets. An ETF will attract all sorts and other countries will follow if it proves to be success

[Epokicecool]

I think they will approve. SEC giving approval for an ETF will be good pr for crypto overall. It will lessen the doubts and fear that the general public are having right now. A lot of people might want them to decline it, as we all know if it gets approved the prices will in one way, shape or form more regulated and the 100x pumps era will forever gove. I might be wrong, and this might spike the prices though. But for long term sustaion price regulation are a must anyway, we can already learn from just one year back. High price spikes are not sustainable, everything needs balance. 

[squatter]

I still have mix emotions about the whole Bitcoin ETF scenario. Yes, it might be the catalyst to push the market or at least improved the situation short term, but how about long term though? Will it be sustainable? Or the custodian will have so much power to control the price? Correct me if I'm wrong, custodian can wield so much power than they can decide anything without consulting its users so for me it will established centralization which can really change the outlook of bitcoin specially for purist.

The custodian would have the authority to buy and sell BTC on the market in order to issue or redeem ETF shares. They're just ensuring that the shares remain fully backed and responding to broker demand for ETF shares. They don't have any "power to control the price" because they're just issuing and redeeming shares based on demand from brokers, who are responding to the market.

Obviously a Bitcoin purist won't care for ETFs and paper markets. Neither do I.

[Bttzed03]

I have read an article about that too, some early bitcoin supporters are not that impressed with bitcoin ETF.
if it will be approved, I believe it can trigger a decent rally so I'd rather have that than a bear market.

[Gary Levanevskii]

I don't think the community needs to think a lot about ETF. There are other ways to popularize Bitcoin. If people start paying for purchases with Bitcoin, this will be a much bigger step than ETF.

[tomahawk9]

Do you want Bitcoin ETF?

On one hand, a Bitcoin ETF getting approved could potentially bring in fresh capital and pump the price, it could be the trigger for a new btc rally and it could be the end of the bear market. On the other hand, I have no doubts that an ETF could encourage the big players to try to manipulate the market just so they can earn more money. I honestly don't care about the ETF anymore, if gets approved, fine, if it doesn't then, who cares? We've seen the btc price increase over the years without the need of institutional money.

[jcpone]

Bitcoin ETF could bring legal recognition on bitcoin by governments. In this manner, this might boost the confidence and trust of bitcoin holders. As this happens, price of bitcoin is expected to rise. However, there is also disadvantage of ETF such as third party is involved here.

[izay]

Some says this Bitcoin ETF will help bitcoin to rise its price. And this matters will really be a great solution on this bear market we are experiencing.

[Morgania]

i think this is a change with me. can you give me more information

[Herbert2020]

Bitcoin ETF could bring legal recognition on bitcoin by governments. In this manner, this might boost the confidence and trust of bitcoin holders. As this happens, price of bitcoin is expected to rise. However, there is also disadvantage of ETF such as third party is involved here.

bitcoin doesn't need government approval and in fact bitcoin was created so that it doesn't require it! so if any investor is encouraged more to invest in bitcoin because the government approved of it then it shows that these people have not understood what bitcoin is and we do not want that kind of investor in bitcoin market because they do not care about things that bitcoin offer, what they care about is money so they will try pump and dumping bitcoin with their hype-fud cycles and that is not good for bitcoin at all.

[Wind_FURY]

Bitcoin ETFs are anticipated due to its expected price boost to the market; it couls potentially spark another bull run to a new ATH, igniting yet another cycle of the market. They are only good for a certain amount of time, but once people on the other side of the spectrum decides that they have had their fill, they'd intentionally bring the market down just so they can have a good entry point again should they decide to come in on the market once more.

There is a rather authoritative opinion that the probability of approval is only 10%. Of course this is just a human opinion, only the elect know exactly)
Jake Chervinsky, a government enforcement defense and securities litigation attorney at Kobre & Kim, has said that while the probability of the approval of a Bitcoin ETF could increase over time, as of now, there only exists a 10 percent chance for the ETF to be approved.
https://hacked.com/if-bitcoin-etf-doesnt-happen-by-february-how-will-it-affect-the-market/

That is NOT an "authoritative opinion". His guess is as good as anyone in the forum who is updated in the news, in my opinion.

Plus this quote from the link you gave,

“Here’s my prediction, with a big disclaimer. This is not in any way meant as advice. Don’t even think about trading on this. I have no idea how the ETF decision will impact the markets anyway. If the deadline were today, I’d give the ETF a 10% chance of approval. My prediction is based largely on the manipulation issue. I think the chance of ETF approval will go up over time as market structure continues to develop & more surveillance-sharing agreements are entered.”

"Surveillance-sharing agreements"? I believe that will weaken Bitcoin, and make it less valuable. We have already seen the US government sanction two Bitcoin addresses owned by Iranians.

[Pursuer]

...
"Surveillance-sharing agreements"? I believe that will weaken Bitcoin, and make it less valuable. We have already seen the US government sanction two Bitcoin addresses owned by Iranians.

that is mainly a political war between the two countries. otherwise it is the dumbest thing to sanction a bitcoin address which can easily be changed easier than changing your socks! and it is most probably because they wanted to set up the groundwork for discouraging people from using bitcoin to go around sanctions set by UN.

[Wind_FURY]

...
"Surveillance-sharing agreements"? I believe that will weaken Bitcoin, and make it less valuable. We have already seen the US government sanction two Bitcoin addresses owned by Iranians.

that is mainly a political war between the two countries. otherwise it is the dumbest thing to sanction a bitcoin address which can easily be changed easier than changing your socks! and it is most probably because they wanted to set up the groundwork for discouraging people from using bitcoin to go around sanctions set by UN.

But Bitcoin is very traceable. The owners of those UTXOs might have a tougher time changing their addresses without exchanges or the "three lettered" enforcement agencies knowing where those coins originally came from.

[trauchot]

I believe that we need Bitcoin ETF because then we will be able to see how the market will grow and new investors will start investing in bitcoin and all cryptocurrency, but right now governments are constantly shifting Bitcoin ETF, I think we still need to wait at least several years while governments would accept Bitcoin ETF.