at this point only ETF approval can affect bitcoin price, its rejection is not a new thing and is completely expected by majority of the market participants and on top of that bitcoin is already over dumped and doesn't have much room left to go down anymore so i don't expect any kind of major drop in case they did what we all expect them to do!
in any case i do expect rises in 2019 so we may see a rise with or without ETF by February anyways and it doesn't have to be "insider trading" either. we will have had more than a year of drop, how much longer can this last!
I guess you are right, most ppl are expecting a rejection, hence an unexpected approval might fuel some interest enough for us to go back on the green side. Yeah it has been a sad year in terms of pricing, but on the otherside we have a lot of companies now exploring blockchain, and I personally think that we have bottomed out here, just waiting for some big news for a pump.