Brexit status

[theymos]

May's deal looks totally dead, but May herself seems relatively secure. It looks like nobody wants to take the blame when everything comes crashing down. I don't like her politics at all, and her deal was basically EU vassalage, but I kind of feel bad for May...

I think that no deal is likely to be reached, and they're going to cancel brexit at the last minute, either via a referendum or even unilaterally in parliament. Any future referendum will have a pro-EU result. Brexit's cancellation will absolutely infuriate the substantial minority of people who are still strongly pro-brexit. IMO the brexit people celebrated too soon, and haven't been doing enough to lock things up. Moreover, the whole UK political system has long been hopelessly screwed up, even moreso than the US, so it's difficult to expect any positive results in anything.

A no-deal brexit would probably be the best long-term result, especially if they can also bring themselves to significantly loosen their regulations vs the EU. The "A+ plan" would be very net-good for the UK long-term, for example, but it seems impossible; IMO the people of the UK would sooner accept May's vassalage deal with the EU than reduce their regulations so much. In any case, a hard brexit will probably cause a several-year-long economic depression in the UK as the economy adapts -- will the people freak out during this and demand returning to the EU (under extremely unfavorable terms)?

What are your predictions? If you're in the UK, how are things looking there?

[tmfp]

My feeling is that we will leave as scheduled and on the terms agreed so far, that the backstop will be fudged.

[TECSHARE]

My prediction is this yellow vest movement is going to be spreading to the UK, and May has some balls thinking she can deny the mandate of the people and let a EU dictatorship take their sovereignty. There will be repercussions, just like Macron is now learning.

[KingScorpio]

brexit is just a joke its 50.5/49.5% election trash
that will only beat up the heats of everyone in uk

[dogtana]

Brexit will happen. There is no chance in hell any government would have guts to trump over the vote.

I think it will have a bad impact on UK's economy for about a decade but people according to their legislation chose to be able to control immigration better over economic benefits. Of course it was a lot more complicated than that, but that's that in a nutshell.

[Upgate]

  After every departure from a nation, union, organisation e.t.c it's is quite very normal that what proceed next would be restructuring and rebuilding you don't leave and excerpt every thing to be a bed of roses in a short time you would first adapt to life as an independent entity.

Also may was not the first Prime Minister that instigated the brexit emancipation from the EU but she has the herculean task of trying to make it a reality

[TECSHARE]

Brexit will happen. There is no chance in hell any government would have guts to trump over the vote.

I think it will have a bad impact on UK's economy for about a decade but people according to their legislation chose to be able to control immigration better over economic benefits. Of course it was a lot more complicated than that, but that's that in a nutshell.

  Oh it will happen, on paper anyway. Also on paper will be the near total submission of national sovereignty May will hand over to the EU, while keeping it only in name.

[o_e_l_e_o]

May's deal won't pass. Labour, the SNP, Lib Dems and the other minor parties will oppose it. The DUP are also going to oppose it because of the issues surrounding the backstop, which she tried to resolve and has failed to do so. That would be enough to kill it, but it also looks like around 100 of her own MPs would vote it down. It has no chance, and honestly, it doesn't deserve one. It is nothing short of ridiculous that this is the best we could come with in two years of negotiating. It essentially has the UK following all the same EU rules that it currently does, but removes the UK's voice from all future discussions about those rules. May knows this, and if she has her way, the deal won't ever make it to a vote. The other parties might try and force it however, with threats of Votes of No Confidence if she doesn't.

The general feeling does seem to be leaning more and more towards going for a second referendum. More and more right wing commentators and right wing discussion forums such as /r/ukpolitics are thinking that. I don't think it is a betrayal of the national will or any of the other ridiculous rhetoric that has been bandied about. The initial vote was made on incomplete information and some outright lies. The "Leave" side promised £350 million a week extra for health - we now know that will categorically not happen, and in fact the NHS is set to be much worse off under Brexit due to staffing and supply issues. I would think the best ballot paper for a second referendum would have 3 options: Brexit with no deal, Brexit with May's deal, Stay in the EU. A single transferable vote would be the only fair way to run this with 3 options, as otherwise you would almost guarantee "Stay in the EU" would win by splitting the Brexit vote between two possibilities.

May survived a Vote of No Confidence from her own party, but there is still the possibility of a Vote of No Confidence in the government from opposition parties. Whether or not this would pass is up for debate. Everyone except the Tories and the DUP would likely support this vote. The DUP may or may not join, but even some Brexiteer Tories have been quoted as saying they would vote against their own party as a rebellion against the terribleness of May's deal.

The whole situation also makes the possibility of Scottish independence and Irish reunification more likely. The entire thing is an omnishambles.

[legendster]

If I understand anything about the UK and their politics, and I do not. I think May was betting all her ponies on the “joint interpretative instrument” which is akin to laying all her eggs in one basket. She spent less time gaining the trust of her own cabinet. Just the sheer possibility of the EU having the objective of ending the Northern Ireland backstop close to just a year after it was placed in power, even with the so-called support of Merkel and Kurz was a ludicrous idea. To me at least.

The backstop has brought to light the greatest sore thumb that's sticking out right now in the whole mess. Just the thought of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland could stoke the old IRA flames and no wonder the hardliners are irate.

But from an Indian's perspective, this is pretty fun to witness. They came here and they drew borders on maps that caused communal tensions that lasted generations, even to this day, millions died .. it almost feels like they've come a full circle and are about to face the same border issues that they created in all their ex-colonies - something that they still to this day take no responsibility of.


Hey! but what do I know? I'm just the resident of an ex-capital of an ex-colony of the (laughably) "great" British Empire.

However, I wasn't aware that you were a britt theymos ..

You could have ordered some of the most expensive tea and gone down in crypto-history alongside the most expensive pizza. Ever!

that you were a britt theymos ..

Or is that a wrong assumption? I only presumed so because of your interest in brexit 

[Carlton Banks]

It's possibl that there was never any intention either from the EU or the UK politicians to let it happen. Actual nations have split into separate countries with far less messing around than has happened in this situation. The truth is that the will to make it happen didn't exist, the politicians on both sides simply didn't want to do it, and lied to everyone's faces that they were attempting it in good faith. Media were either complicit, or at least willfully ignorant.

I suspect that, one way or another, the Brexit vote will be reversed. And the tortuous show that has been put on will serve as a reminder to both British people and the people in other EU countries: this is what you get when you try to leave. For some reason, everyone will forget that Greenland or Iceland split with Denmark into completely new countries with no weekly soap-opera headlines at all. Make of that what you will.

[jjjfff]

It's possibl that there was never any intention either from the EU or the UK politicians to let it happen.

I think that was their original intention, yes. To use a referendum just to validate their bias. Except The People revolted in the referendum and decided out.

Worth remembering that the UK chose to enter the EU using an exactly identical non binding referendum decades ago and its result was respected.

So, for the purpose of joining the EU, just one non binding referendum was enough. But to exit the EU they want to ignore the vote and keep voting until Brexit falls?

[SCheek]

I'm from the UK and first off; no one has any respect for the prime minister. They think she's a capitulous weak coward quisling who's so obsessed with getting a deal that she's putting the interests of the country at the back of the queue. We have such a great future ahead of us if only we wanted it.

[Coinifyx]

Brexit status: not found

[KingScorpio]

brits are now going to become the worlds example of the the "tyrany of the majority" with their 50.1% election outcomes.

brits are afraid of the EU burocracy, unlike the continental europeans, they take the burocrats actually serious. thats the problem....

so they are living in a state of paranoia from them. unlike the europeans.

while the irish scotish and welsh see the EU as a freedom security from the dominance of the british....

[mOgliE]

My prediction is this yellow vest movement is going to be spreading to the UK, and May has some balls thinking she can deny the mandate of the people and let a EU dictatorship take their sovereignty. There will be repercussions, just like Macron is now learning.

Learning what?
Nothing is happening. I'm in Paris and media are just focusing on the few dozens guys having some actual balls.

I was in the protests, most of the people there yell "Police is not our ennemiex" "Don't provoke violence" "Get the violent people in prison we're peaceful here"

The people aren't even near ready to shake the power. Macron is laughing right now and movement is already nearly dead.

Sadly, nothing is happening, don't believe your TV on this :/

[TECSHARE]

My prediction is this yellow vest movement is going to be spreading to the UK, and May has some balls thinking she can deny the mandate of the people and let a EU dictatorship take their sovereignty. There will be repercussions, just like Macron is now learning.

Learning what?
Nothing is happening. I'm in Paris and media are just focusing on the few dozens guys having some actual balls.

I was in the protests, most of the people there yell "Police is not our ennemiex" "Don't provoke violence" "Get the violent people in prison we're peaceful here"

The people aren't even near ready to shake the power. Macron is laughing right now and movement is already nearly dead.

Sadly, nothing is happening, don't believe your TV on this :/

You seem to think the TV is a lot more important than it really is. You also seem to think violence is required for change, which is very telling about you personally. In spite of this movement rising from your home country, you seem to be totally ignorant of the ideals of your own countrymen. Even if what you say is true, this is bigger than France now and is indicative of a larger movement world wide. You keep telling me about TV I don't even watch if you like though.

[mOgliE]

You seem to think the TV is a lot more important than it really is. You also seem to think violence is required for change, which is very telling about you personally. In spite of this movement rising from your home country, you seem to be totally ignorant of the ideals of your own countrymen. Even if what you say is true, this is bigger than France now and is indicative of a larger movement world wide. You keep telling me about TV I don't even watch if you like though.

You say "Macron is learningnow".

I answer "The people aren't even near ready to shake the power. Macron is laughing right now and movement is already nearly dead."

Your answer to this is just telling me "it's bigger than France now" "don't talk about TV so much" (while I just refered to it once in a post) and some adhominem attacks concerning my supposed personality.

So you're saying nothing in fact. At least nothing interesting useful or logical.

[TECSHARE]

You seem to think the TV is a lot more important than it really is. You also seem to think violence is required for change, which is very telling about you personally. In spite of this movement rising from your home country, you seem to be totally ignorant of the ideals of your own countrymen. Even if what you say is true, this is bigger than France now and is indicative of a larger movement world wide. You keep telling me about TV I don't even watch if you like though.

You say "Macron is learningnow".

I answer "The people aren't even near ready to shake the power. Macron is laughing right now and movement is already nearly dead."

Your answer to this is just telling me "it's bigger than France now" "don't talk about TV so much" (while I just refered to it once in a post) and some adhominem attacks concerning my supposed personality.

So you're saying nothing in fact. At least nothing interesting useful or logical.

You should try reciting some of these posts to yourself into a mirror some time. You might find it helpful...

I really don't much care for your opinion anyway, and the fact you think my direct response is not "interesting or logical" is itself not even a retort, just some sad impotent personal opinion of your own dressed up as one. You give me a handful of personal anecdotes and then accuse me of having no logic and nothing interesting to say.

Trust me, Macron is shitting himself, and if he isn't he is pretty dumb. Just because these people don't want to fight cops doesn't mean they won't string his ass up, and if they chose to the police wouldn't be able to stop them anyway.

P.S. Learn how to use the definition of ad hominem properly, because there was none. You taking offense to a statement does not constitute a personal attack. Until you step up your game this is going to continue happening. Or you know, keep picking your nose as usual...

[ATMD]

brits are now going to become the worlds example of the the "tyrany of the majority" with their 50.1% election outcomes.

I wonder how Brexit will affect the talent pool in the long run, will it damage the "British brand"?

[mOgliE]

Trust me, Macron is shitting himself, and if he isn't he is pretty dumb. Just because these people don't want to fight cops doesn't mean they won't string his ass up, and if they chose to the police wouldn't be able to stop them anyway.

Oh ok then I should trust you.
I mean you're clearly more aware than me of what's happening in France and Paris than myself.
What do I know? I'm just living here 

If this:

You also seem to think violence is required for change, which is very telling about you personally.

Isn't ad hominem then we don't have the same definition.

Macron doesn't give a shit and has no reason to do so. Number of persons involved in the movement is decreasing every week, movement support is decreasing every week, violence and damages are decreasing every week... Please tell me how this is an "opinion"? Facts are just pointing out that the movement is dying so why should he care?